All posts by Marsha Silverman

In this week’s Commercial Pulse report, we take a closer look at the burgeoning population of Women-owned businesses.

Population and business growth in the Southern U.S. have outpaced other regions since 2021, but both are now slowing - commercial pulse report

I’m excited to share the current Experian Commercial Pulse Report with you. I have the opportunity each week to analyze data on the millions of U.S. small businesses in Experian’s database and discover actionable insights that benefit our clients. Making these discoveries is rewarding work, and we utilize these insights to guide our recommendations. I thought I would share what I am watching through Experian’s bi-weekly Commercial Pulse Report (just bookmark the link; we will update it on a bi-weekly basis). This week's report contains some compelling insight into commercial fraud. In 2002, a Trustpair Institute for Finance & Management survey reported 56% of businesses had reported some sort of fraud attempt, in 2023 the survey shows 96% of businesses reporting fraud attempts. What I'm watching: The growing financial fraud problem: Consumers lost a staggering $10 billion to fraud in 2022, marking a 14% increase from 2021. Already, a shocking 5 billion records were found on the dark web this year, matching the 2023 total. The economy grew 2.8% in Q2. The Fed leaves interest rates flat but leaves the door open for a potential cut at the September meeting. That’s a quick take – Download the latest report. Download Commercial Pulse Report Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

Marsha Silverman has just published a new Commercial Pulse report of small business insights.

Marsha Silverman has just published a new Commercial Pulse report of small business insights.

Here are a few quick small business insights from our latest Commercial Pulse Report.

Download our latest Commercial Pulse Report for economic insights and a deep dive on reasons why so many startups fail in first 5 years.

Since January 2021, a seasonally adjusted average of 444K new businesses opened each month, 52% higher than the pre-pandemic 2018-2019 monthly average. In light of the influx of new businesses, and in a higher-interest rate environment, the goal of this week’s analysis was to evaluate if commercial credit usage and payments by product shifted pre- and post-pandemic. Businesses with two different trade types were evaluated as of 2018 (prepandemic) and 2022 (post-pandemic). The two-trade-type combinations observed were Card + OECL (open ended credit line), Card +Term Loan, Card Lease, and Card + LOC (line of credit). Despite more younger businesses entering the market and lenders tightening credit policies over the past two years, businesses with two-trade types had higher lines/loans post-pandemic. Delinquencies also increased post-pandemic for all the two-trade type combinations except businesses with a Card & OECL. Commercial Cards are the most prevalent type of credit for businesses. As businesses grow, they seek additional credit for business needs such as expansion, new facilities, and acquisitions. When businesses seek additional credit, it is most often in the form of commercial loans, leases and credit lines which compared to cards, generally provide higher levels of funding, longer terms and higher monthly fixed payments. For businesses that had two types of accounts, including a commercial card with another commercial credit product, the commercial card stayed current longer and more often the non-card product went delinquent first. Businesses rely on commercial cards for day-to-day operating expenses and lower dollar financing needs. Furthermore, commercial card balances are significantly lower than any of the other commercial trade types allowing for a lower monthly minimum payment to keep the card in good standing. What I am watching: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in last week’s Congressional hearings that the Fed will act slowly and cautiously in terms of cutting interest rates. With inflation declining but still persistent and the labor market still robust, rate cuts may not occur until the second half of the year. Download Report Download the latest version of the Commercial Pulse Report here. Better yet, subscribe so you'll get it in your inbox every time it releases, or once a month as you choose.

The November jobs report paints a picture of a robust yet nuanced job market. While job gains and a low unemployment rate inspire optimism for a soft-landing scenario, the cooling employment growth reflects the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on consumer and business activities. Labor shortages are gradually easing, but challenges persist, particularly in the service sector. Wage growth is slowing down, offering relief from recent highs and contributing to the mitigation of inflationary pressures. Moreover, a new layer of complexity emerges with a rise in layoffs, totaling over 16 million in the first 10 months of the year, representing a 12% increase from 2022. Although layoffs are expected to rise further as the job market normalizes, projections indicate that the numbers will stay "well within the norm." Examining specific sectors reveals unique dynamics. The health care industry, propelled by long-term structural factors, continues to add jobs, providing stability to the overall economy. Conversely, the retail trade sector experiences job losses despite strong sales, signaling the industry’s transition to online channels and COVID-related changes in retail behavior. Navigating this intricatelandscape requires keen insight into sector-specific trends and an awareness of the evolving dynamics shaping the broader economic trajectory. What I am watching: Following the positive November inflation and labor market reports, the Federal Reserve did not change interest rates at their December meeting. After the aggressive interest rate increases since March 2022, this is now the third consecutive meeting with no change, but the Fed indicated that there will be multiple rate cuts beginning in 2024 and beyond. One key to the economy will be how consumers approach holiday spending. With consumer confidence low and news of upcoming layoffs, people may tighten their belts, thereby slowing the economy. Download Report Download the latest version of the Commercial Pulse Report here. Better yet, subscribe so you'll get it in your inbox every time it releases, or once a month as you choose.