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Q3 2021 Data Shows Another Increase in the Average Vehicle Loan Amount

by Melinda Zabritski 2 min read January 6, 2022

Car salesperson talking on landline phone

As the automotive industry continues to recover from the pandemic and navigate through inventory challenges caused by the microchip shortage, it’s no surprise that we’ve seen vehicle prices skyrocket—and it’s led to an unremitting increase in the average vehicle loan amounts and monthly payments over the past few quarters.

In Experian’s latest State of the Automotive Finance Market: Q3 2021 report, the average new vehicle loan amount increased 8.8% year-over-year, rising to $37,746 in Q3 2021. Though, the average used vehicle loan amount saw a more notable increase, with more than 20% year-over year, jumping to $26,230 in Q3 2021.

As a result, the average monthly payments increased, with the new vehicle loans reaching $617 in Q3 2021, and the used vehicle loans at $471. While the data shows that the average used loan amount has had a more significant increase over the past few quarters, it’s important to note that not all used vehicles come with high monthly payments.

Digging into the used vehicle market

With the used vehicle loan amounts growing significantly and dealerships grappling with inventory shortages, affordability remains a question. But keep in mind, trends can shift based on the age of the vehicle.

For instance, when looking at the data by model year, it shows the majority of the higher monthly payments can be attributed to late-model vehicles.

The average monthly payment at franchise dealerships for a 2014 model year is $391 in Q3 2021, while independent dealers with the 2013 model year have an average monthly payment of $385.

Additionally, the report found consumers continue to prefer larger, more expensive vehicles. Noting the top five used vehicles that were most financed in Q3 2021, with the 2018 Ford F150 making up 0.67% of the financing, followed by the 2019 RAM 1500 (0.59%), 2018 Toyota RAV4 (0.48%), 2018 Nissan Rouge (0.48%), and 2018 Honda Civic (0.44%).

Despite increases in loan amounts and monthly payments, delinquency rates remain stable

Even with the loan amounts and monthly payments rising, there is some good news—the 30- and 60-day delinquency rates remain low. Thirty-day delinquencies saw a slight increase during this quarter, from 1.66% compared to 1.65% in Q3 2020, while 60-day delinquencies remained flat at 0.55% year-over-year.

Although the data shows that consumers are able to manage the increase in vehicle pricing, it is important for dealers to level-set expectations for those re-entering the market. These types of data points can help inform decision making as lenders and dealers assist consumers in finding a vehicle within their budget.

As the automotive industry continues to navigate uncharted territory with the pandemic, there is no doubt these challenges will remain a dominant topic of interest. It will be important to keep a close watch on delinquency rates and how consumers manage higher loan amounts and monthly payments in quarters to come.

To learn more, watch the entire State of the Automotive Finance Market: Q3 2021 webinar.

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The automotive market is entering a new phase defined not just by what consumers are buying, but by how they’re choosing to finance it. According to Experian Automotive’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q1 2026, nearly one-third (35.55%) of all new vehicle loans now stretch more than six years, up from 30.83% in Q1 2025. Similarly on the used side, 31.54% of loans extended more than six years, an increase from 28.60% last year. The shift highlights why affordability is reshaping how consumers are financing their vehicles, particularly in larger and higher-priced vehicles. Refinancing gains traction as interest rates stabilize In addition to longer-term loans, consumers are becoming increasingly deliberate with their financing decisions and managing monthly payments as refinancing activity has gained momentum. For instance, consumers who refinanced this quarter lowered their interest rate by 2.2% and saved an average of $81 on their monthly payment. Credit unions, in particular, continued to play a major role in helping consumers secure more affordable payment options. In Q1 2025, credit unions accounted for the lion’s share of automotive refinancing at 63.43%, from 62.31% a year ago. By comparison, banks went from 23.51% to 22.59% year-over-year. Furthermore, those who refinanced with a credit union saved an average of $101 this quarter, whereas those who refinanced with banks saved $60. Expanding credit access through flexible financing Another notable trend this quarter was the incessant growth in subprime financing as credit accessibility across the market continues to increase. In the first quarter of this year, subprime borrowers made up 15.75% of total vehicle financing, from 14.40% last year. For new vehicles in particular, the subprime market went from 5.61% to 6.88% year-over-year, while subprime in used vehicle financing grew to 20.60% this quarter, from 19.36% a year ago. Increased activity in the subprime segment highlights continued confidence in the automotive market and underscores the importance of expanded financing options. As consumers seek greater flexibility with financing decisions that fit their lifestyle, lenders and dealers have the opportunity to approach them with more personalized solutions. These trends are helping keep both new and used vehicle markets moving forward, while creating new opportunities for consumers to manage payments and purchase confidently. To learn more about automotive finance trends, view the full State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q1 2026 presentation on demand.

by Melinda Zabritski 2 min read June 2, 2026

Model inventories are rapidly expanding. AI-enabled tools are entering workflows that were once deterministic and decisioning environments are more interconnected than ever. At the same time, regulatory scrutiny around model risk management continues to intensify. In many institutions, classification determines validation depth, monitoring intensity, and escalation pathways while informing board reporting. If classification is wrong, every downstream control is misaligned. And, in 2026, model classification is no longer just about assigning a tier, but rather about understanding data lineage, use case evolution, interdependencies, and governance accountability in a decentralized, AI-driven environment. We recently spoke with Mark Longman, Director of Analytics and Regulatory Technology, and here are some of his thoughts around five blind spots risk and compliance leaders should consider addressing now. 1. The “Set It and Forget It” Mentality The Blind Spot Model classification frameworks are often designed during a regulatory remediation effort or inventory modernization initiative. Once documented and approved, they can remain largely unchanged for years. However, model risk management is an ongoing process. “There’s really no sort of one and done when it comes to model risk management,” said Longman. Why It Matters Classification is not merely descriptive, it’s prescriptive. It drives the depth of validation, the frequency of monitoring, the intensity of governance oversight and the level of senior management visibility. As Longman notes, data fragmentation is compounding the challenge. “There’s data everywhere – internal, cloud, even shadow IT – and it’s tough to get a clear view into the inputs into the models,” he said. When inputs are unclear, tiering becomes inherently subjective and if classification frameworks are not reviewed regularly, governance intensity can become misaligned with real exposure. Therefore, static classification is a growing risk, especially in a world of rapidly expanding AI use cases. In a supervisory environment that continues to scrutinize model definitions, particularly as AI tools proliferate, a dynamic, periodically refreshed classification process can demonstrate institutional vigilance. 2. Assuming Third-Party Models Reduce Governance Accountability The Blind SpotThere is often an implicit belief that vendor-provided models carry less governance burden because they were developed externally. Why It Matters Vendor provided models continue to grow, particularly in AI-driven solutions, but supervisory expectations remain firm. “Third-party models do not diminish the responsibility of the institution for its governance and oversight of the model – whether it’s monitoring, ongoing validation, just evaluating model drift” Longman said. “The board and senior managers are responsible to make sure that these models are performing as expected and that includes third-party models.” Regulators consistently emphasize that institutions remain responsible for the outcomes produced by models used in their decisioning environments, regardless of origin. If a vendor model influences credit approvals, pricing, fraud decisions, or capital calculations, it directly affects customers, financial performance and compliance exposure. Treating third-party models as inherently lower risk can also distort internal tiering frameworks. When vendor models are under-classified, validation depth and monitoring rigor may be insufficient relative to their true impact. 3. Limited Situational Awareness of Model Interdependencies The Blind SpotModern decisioning environments are interconnected ecosystems. Forecasting models may influence reserve calculations. Marketing models may be repurposed across product lines. Data transformations may feed multiple downstream models simultaneously. Why It Matters Risk often flows across interdependencies. When upstream models degrade in performance or introduce bias, downstream models inherit that exposure. If multiple material decisions depend on the same data transformation or feature engineering process, concentration risk emerges. Without visibility into these dependencies, tiering assessments may underestimate cumulative risk, and monitoring frameworks may fail to detect systemic vulnerabilities. “There has to be a holistic view of what models are being used for – and really somebody to ensure there’s not that overlap across models,” Longman said. Supervisors are increasingly interested in understanding how model risk propagates through business processes. When institutions cannot articulate how models interact, it raises broader concerns about situational awareness and control effectiveness. Therefore, capturing interdependencies within the classification framework enhances more than documentation. It enables more accurate tiering, more targeted monitoring and more informed governance oversight. 4. Excluding Models Without Defensible Rationale The Blind SpotGray-area tools frequently sit outside formal inventories: rule-based engines, spreadsheet models, scenario calculators, heuristic decision aids, or emerging AI tools used for analysis and summarization. These tools may not neatly fit legacy definitions of a “model,” and so they are sometimes excluded without robust documentation. Why It Matters Regulatory definitions of “model” have broadened over time. What creates risk is the absence of defensible reasoning and documentation. Longman describes the risk clearly: “Some [teams] are deploying AI solutions that are sort of unbeknownst to the model risk management community – and almost creating what you might think of as a shadow model inventory.” Without visibility, institutions cannot confidently characterize use, trace inputs, or assign appropriate tiers, according to Longman. It also undermines the credibility of the official inventory during examinations. A well-governed program can articulate why certain tools fall outside model risk management scope, referencing documented criteria aligned with regulatory guidance. Without that evidence, exclusions can appear arbitrary, suggesting gaps in oversight. 5. Inconsistent or Subjective Classification Frameworks The Blind SpotAs inventories scale and governance teams expand, classification decisions are often distributed across reviewers. Over time, discrepancies can emerge. Why It Matters Inconsistency undermines both risk management and regulatory confidence. If two models with comparable use cases and impact profiles are assigned different tiers without clear justification, it signals that the framework is not being applied uniformly. AI adds even more complexity. When it comes to emerging AI model governance versus traditional model governance, there’s a lot to unpack, says Longman: “The AI models themselves are a lot more complicated than your traditional logistic or multiple regression models. The data, the prompting, you need to monitor the prompts that the LLMs for example are responding to and you need to make sure you can have what you may think of as prompt drift,” Longman said. As frameworks evolve, particularly to incorporate AI, automation, and new regulatory interpretations, institutions must ensure that changes are cascaded across the entire inventory. Partial updates or selective reclassification introduce fragmentation. Longman recommends formalizing classification through a structured decision tree embedded in policy to ensure consistent outcomes across business units. Beyond clear documentation, a strong classification program is applied consistently, measured objectively, and periodically reassessed across the full portfolio. BONUS – 6. Elevating Classification with Data-Level Visibility Some institutions are extending classification discipline beyond models to the data layer itself. Longman describes organizations that maintain not only a model inventory, but a data inventory, mapping variables to the models they influence. This approach allows institutions to quickly assess downstream effects when operational or environmental changes occur including system updates or even natural disasters affecting payment behavior. In an AI-driven environment, traceability may become a competitive differentiator. Conclusion Model classification is foundational. It determines how risk is measured, monitored, escalated, and reported. In a rapidly evolving regulatory and technological environment, it cannot remain static. Institutions that invest now in transparency, consistency, and data-level visibility will not only reduce supervisory friction – they will build a governance framework capable of supporting the next generation of AI-enabled decisioning. Learn more

by Stefani Wendel 2 min read March 20, 2026

  As vehicle prices and interest rates continue to evolve, both consumers and lenders are recalibrating their approaches to affordability and long-term sustainability. This shift has resulted in the subprime segment growing to its largest share of total finance market for subprime in the fourth quarter since 2021. According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q4 2025, subprime borrowers accounted for 15.31% of total vehicle financing, an increase from 14.54% in Q4 2024. To understand why the subprime space is evolving, we took a deeper dive into the affordability picture and how changes in pricing and interest rates are influencing both consumer decisions and lender strategies. In Q4 2025, the average loan amount for a new vehicle increased $1,882 from the prior year to $43,582, and the average interest rate for a new vehicle went from 6.34% last year to 6.37% this quarter. As a result, the average monthly payment increased from $746 to $767 in the same time frame. On the used side, the average loan amount increased $872 year-over-year, reaching $27,528 in Q4 2025. However, despite the average interest rate declining from 11.63% to 11.26% during the same time, the average monthly payment grew $9 from last year to $537 this quarter. These changes are prompting thoughtful adjustments across the automotive ecosystem. Consumers are comparing financing options more carefully and adjusting loan terms when necessary to prioritize the cost of ownership. Lenders are also focusing more on payment flexibility and how long-term borrowers are performing as they leverage it for central pillars of strategies to stay ahead of the ever-evolving market. To learn more about automotive finance trends, view the full State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q4 2025 presentation on demand.

by Melinda Zabritski 2 min read March 5, 2026

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