At A Glance
Our latest white paper explores how changing consumer behavior is reshaping portfolio strategy, actions issuers can take before peak spending arrives, and where additional data can improve acquisition, portfolio growth and risk decisions.Every year, consumers say they’ll spend less during the holidays. Every year, many do the opposite.
Ahead of the 2025 holiday shopping season, 57% of consumers told Deloitte they expected the economy to weaken, the most pessimistic outlook recorded in the survey’s history. Planned holiday spending was down 10%.
Yet by the end of the season, online holiday sales reached a record $257.8 billion, up 6.8% year over year. Credit card balances climbed to $1.28 trillion, and Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) financing surpassed $20 billion during the holiday period.
For lenders, the takeaway is to identify and engage the right consumers before the holidays were best equipped to capture that spending while effectively managing risk.
As the 2026 holiday season approaches, Experian’s latest market insights suggest that while credit performance appears relatively stable at the portfolio level, important shifts beneath the surface are changing how lenders should evaluate both opportunity and risk.
Holiday shopping season 2026
Winning top of wallet before the holiday swipe
Holiday lending decisions happen long before the holidays
It’s been observed that the holiday shopping season has expanded – beginning before Black Friday – over recent years. While Cyber Week continues to generate headlines, holiday spending is becoming more distributed throughout the quarter.
For lenders, that means strategies must be in place before peak shopping begins. Credit line increases, portfolio reviews, acquisition strategies and risk segmentation completed in late summer often determine how much holiday spending an institution can safely capture.
At the same time, early signs of credit deterioration are emerging faster than traditional portfolio metrics suggest reinforcing the importance of identifying emerging portfolio risk early rather than relying solely on broad portfolio performance indicators.
Income is becoming a stronger predictor of credit performance
One of the most notable shifts in today’s lending environment is the growing relationship between income and future credit performance.
Experian’s data suggests the market is becoming increasingly polarized. The population earning more than $250,000 annually has more than doubled since 2023, but more than one-quarter of those consumers have since moved into lower income brackets, often following retirement or job loss.
Meanwhile, consumers earning less than $50,000 annually show relatively little income mobility, with approximately 85% remaining in the same income band year-over-year.
These trends highlight an important reality: a credit score alone may no longer provide a complete picture of borrower risk.
Four priorities before peak holiday spending
With only a short window before holiday borrowing accelerates, lenders have an opportunity to strengthen both growth and risk strategies.
Key areas of focus include:
Preparing for the holiday shopping season ahead
The 2025 holiday season demonstrated that consumer spending decisions don’t always align with consumer sentiment. How does that translate for the 2026 shopping season?
For lenders, success will depend less on reacting to spending trends in November and more on making informed credit decisions months earlier.
As consumer financial behavior continues to evolve, combining traditional credit data with income, cash flow and alternative data can provide a more complete understanding of both opportunity and risk. Institutions that incorporate these broader insights into acquisition, portfolio management and fraud strategies will be better positioned to grow responsibly during one of the year’s most active lending periods.
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