Loading...

Assessing the Market: Throw Out the Crystal Ball and Turn to Data

Published: February 8, 2021 by Guest Contributor

Business woman with tablet in car dealership

2020 has put a lot of industries on edge, the automotive industry included. Having experienced and recovered from many economic events over the years, dealers and the rest of the industry have had a ton of practice navigating these pitfalls. But reacting to these events on the fly can be troublesome and leave their operations vulnerable. What if there was a way to prepare ahead of time? The key to such insight is data.

Last year is a testament to how quickly trends can shift, and entire industries can be turned upside down. It’s no longer enough to just react to the immediate challenges. Instead, it is crucial to be proactive. This means identifying and preparing for potential obstacles and challenges before they occur. And while we can’t predict what the future looks like, we can stay close to the trends as they are forming and adjust accordingly.

Of course, this is easier said than done. Every economic event is unique, but there are certain occurrences that tend to happen during a crisis. Oftentimes, the unemployment rate increases, interest rates drop, and the housing market shifts, just to name a few. These events translate to changes in the auto industry as well.

For example, according to Experian’s Automotive Market Insights dashboard, an increase in unemployment correlates with decreased vehicle registrations. At the onset of the pandemic, the unemployment rate dramatically increased to nearly 14%, while vehicle registrations decreased from 1.1 million at the beginning of the year to around 660,000 in April. But digging a little deeper, the dashboard also shows that the peak of unemployment predates a decline in vehicle registrations by approximately one month. With the ability to see how certain events impact the automotive industry, dealers can plan ahead and make adjustments that can support their business during turbulent times.

Prepping for negative events is just one piece of the puzzle. Dealers must also find opportunity for growth during downturns. Identifying conquest opportunity is just one way dealers can expand their businesses. Knowing which consumers are coming off-lease, off-loan or are in positive equity in local surrounding areas can inform growth strategy and fuel sales. For instance, dealers may want to structure attractive lease and trade-in packages, ultimately helping to boost sales activity when it’s needed most.

While we may not be able to predict any economic downturn, we can do our best to prepare for them. Data provides crucial insights that can help dealers avoid more stress than necessary during challenging chapters. Market trends ebb and flow, even more so during times of crisis. Staying close to the data allows dealers to take control of their businesses during what feels like an out-of-control situation and see their businesses through to more stable times.

Related Posts

Executive Summary The July 2025 housing market reveals a landscape of shifting consumer behaviors, evolving lender strategies, and continued strength in borrower performance—especially within home equity. Origination volumes have dipped slightly, but direct marketing, particularly through Invitation to Apply (ITA) campaigns, is accelerating. As key players exit the space, gaps are opening across both marketing and origination, creating clear opportunities for agile institutions. This phase signals both caution and potential. The winners will be those who refine their marketing, sharpen segmentation, and deploy smarter risk monitoring in real time. TL;DR Risk Profile: Mortgage and HELOC delinquencies remain low. Slight increases in 90+ DPD are not yet cause for concern. Mortgage Originations: Modestly down, but marketing remains aggressive. Invitation to Apply (ITA) volumes outpacing prescreen. Home Equity Originations: Stable originations, competitive marketing volumes. ITA volumes outpacing prescreen similar to mortgage. Opportunity: Targeted direct mail and refined segmentation are growth levers in both mortgage and home equity. Risk Environment: Resilient Yet Watchful Experian’s July data shows both mortgage and home equity delinquencies hovering at historically low levels. Early-stage delinquencies dropped in June, while late-stage (90+ days past due) nudged upward—still below thresholds signaling broader distress. HELOCs followed a similar path. Early-stage movement was slightly elevated but well within acceptable ranges, reinforcing borrower stability even in a high-rate, high-tariff environment. Takeaway: Creditworthiness remains strong, especially for real estate–backed portfolios, but sustained monitoring of 90+ DPD trends is smart risk management. Home Equity: Volume Holds, Competition Resets Home equity lending is undergoing a major strategic reshuffle. With a key market participant exiting the space, a significant share of both marketing and originations is now in flux. What’s happening: Direct mail volumes in home equity nearly match those in first mortgages—despite the latter holding larger balances. ITA volumes alone topped 8 million in May 2025. Total tappable home equity stands near $29.5 trillion, underscoring a massive opportunity.(source: Experian property data.) Lenders willing to recalibrate quickly can unlock high-intent borrowers—especially as more consumers seek cash flow flexibility without refinancing into higher rates.   Direct Mail and Offer Channel Trends The continued surge in ITA campaigns illustrates a broader market pivot. Lenders are favoring: Controlled timing and messaging Multichannel alignment Improved compliance flexibility May 2025 Mail Volumes: Offer Type Mortgage Home Equity ITA 29.2M 25.8M Prescreen 15.6M 19.0M Strategic Insights for Lenders 1. Invest in Personalized Offers Drive better response rates with prescreen or ITA campaigns. Leverage data assets like Experian ConsumerView for ITA’s for robust behavioral and lifestyle segmentation. For prescreen, achieve pinpoint-personalization with offers built on propensity models, property attributes, and credit characteristics. 2. Seize the Home Equity Opening Use urgency-based messaging to attract consumers searching for fast access to equity—without the complexity of a full refi. Additionally, as mentioned above, leverage propensity, credit, and property (i.e. equity) data to optimize your marketing spend. 3. Strengthen Risk Controls Even in a low-delinquency environment, vigilance matters. Account Review campaigns, custom scorecards, and real-time monitoring help stay ahead of rising 90+ DPD segments. 4. Benchmark Smarter Competitive intelligence is key. Evaluate offer volumes, audience segmentation, and marketing timing to refine your next campaign. FAQ Q: What does the exit of a major home equity player mean? A: It leaves a significant gap in both marketing activity and borrower targeting. Lenders able to act quickly can capture outsized share in a category rich with equity and demand. Q: How should lenders respond to the evolving risk profile? A: Continue to monitor performance closely, but focus on forward-looking indicators like trended data, income verification, and alternative credit signals. Conclusion The housing market in July 2025 presents a clear message: the fundamentals are sound, but the strategies are shifting. Those ready to optimize outreach by making smarter use of data will seize a disproportionate share in both mortgage and home equity. Want to stay ahead? Connect with Experian Mortgage Solutions for the insights, tools, and strategies to grow in today’s evolving lending environment.  

Published: August 29, 2025 by Jonathan Reese

Collaboration between financial institutions and tech companies is essential to stay competitive and enhance the consumer experience.

Published: June 26, 2025 by Brian Funicelli

While many industry pundits are assessing how macroeconomic changes may impact the future of the automotive market, recent data suggests consumers tend to stick to specific fuel types. According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2024, over the last 12 months, 77.5% of electric vehicle (EV) owners replaced their EV with another one, with 15.6% returning to gas-powered vehicles. Meanwhile, 82.2% of gas vehicle owners replaced it with the same fuel type, while only 4.7% made the switch to electric. It’s important for professionals to recognize that most consumers tend to replace their vehicles with the same fuel type. Additionally, knowing who is making these purchases and the types of vehicles being registered allows better anticipation for consumer needs and ultimately enhances the buying experience while fostering consumer loyalty. Breaking down fuel types by generation Through Q4 2024, Baby Boomers predominantly registered new gasoline vehicles, accounting for 74.7% of their choices, while 15.9% opted for hybrids and 6.6% chose EVs. Millennials showed a similar trend, with 69.2% registering gas vehicles, followed by 15.1% selecting hybrids and 12.5% choosing EVs. Gen Z also favored gasoline vehicles at 74.0%, with hybrids making up 14.3% and EVs at 9.1% of their registrations. Although gasoline vehicles account for the majority of new registrations, EVs and hybrids are steadily gaining ground, particularly among the younger generations who are drawn to advanced features that align with their preferences. This will likely play a role in shaping the future of vehicle registrations as more gas alternative models hit the market and consumers make the switch. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2024 presentation on demand.

Published: April 2, 2025 by John Howard

Subscribe to our Auto blog

Enter your name and email for the latest updates.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.