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The Aftermarket “Sweet Spot” Continues to Grow Through Q1 2022

Published: August 3, 2022 by Guest Contributor

Whether a consumer has a brand-new or used vehicle, it’s inevitably going to need regular maintenance and require repairs. Fortunately for aftermarket professionals, the aftermarket “sweet spot” is continuously growing—a trend that should be watched closely. Vehicles in the sweet spot are typically between six- to 12-model-years-old and have aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs.

Knowing the model year and type of vehicles that are in operation will be important for aftermarket professionals to determine what parts may be needed, and anticipate potential consumer needs.

According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q1 2022, 35.8% of vehicles in operation (VIO) now fall within the aftermarket sweet spot, a 6.5% year-over-year increase. It is important to note that the aftermarket sweet spot max volume record of 104 million is expected to be broken over the next 12-18 months, considering the sweet spot volume was 100.3 million through Q1 2022 and the last time it exceeded that number was nine years ago. The increase will create more opportunities for aftermarket professionals as more vehicles will potentially need maintenance.

Sweet Spot Graphic

Aftermarket “sweet spot” will continue to grow

Right now, the aftermarket sweet spot consists of model years between 2011 and 2017. There were 10.5 million 2011 model year vehicles on the road through Q1 2022, this low volume will transition into the post-sweet spot next year. At the same time, there will be 16.5 million 2018 model year vehicles entering the sweet spot.

Furthermore, an estimated 16.7 million vehicles in operation with a 2019 model year and almost 14.3 million vehicles in operation with a 2020 model year will be transitioning into the sweet spot in the next two years. When these model year vehicles enter the sweet spot, the current 12 million vehicles with a 2012 model year and an estimated 13.7 million 2013 model year vehicles will transition into the post-sweet spot, resulting in a notable increase.

Watching this data closely will allow aftermarket professionals to continue assisting with maintenance and repairs for these vehicles that are currently on the road, as well as prepare for what’s to come to the aftermarket industry in approaching years.

To learn more about other vehicle registration trends, watch the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q1 2022 presentation on demand.

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Published: November 11, 2025 by Kirsten Von Busch

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Published: September 22, 2025 by John Howard

Executive Summary The July 2025 housing market reveals a landscape of shifting consumer behaviors, evolving lender strategies, and continued strength in borrower performance—especially within home equity. Origination volumes have dipped slightly, but direct marketing, particularly through Invitation to Apply (ITA) campaigns, is accelerating. As key players exit the space, gaps are opening across both marketing and origination, creating clear opportunities for agile institutions. This phase signals both caution and potential. The winners will be those who refine their marketing, sharpen segmentation, and deploy smarter risk monitoring in real time. TL;DR Risk Profile: Mortgage and HELOC delinquencies remain low. Slight increases in 90+ DPD are not yet cause for concern. Mortgage Originations: Modestly down, but marketing remains aggressive. Invitation to Apply (ITA) volumes outpacing prescreen. Home Equity Originations: Stable originations, competitive marketing volumes. ITA volumes outpacing prescreen similar to mortgage. Opportunity: Targeted direct mail and refined segmentation are growth levers in both mortgage and home equity. Risk Environment: Resilient Yet Watchful Experian’s July data shows both mortgage and home equity delinquencies hovering at historically low levels. Early-stage delinquencies dropped in June, while late-stage (90+ days past due) nudged upward—still below thresholds signaling broader distress. HELOCs followed a similar path. Early-stage movement was slightly elevated but well within acceptable ranges, reinforcing borrower stability even in a high-rate, high-tariff environment. Takeaway: Creditworthiness remains strong, especially for real estate–backed portfolios, but sustained monitoring of 90+ DPD trends is smart risk management. Home Equity: Volume Holds, Competition Resets Home equity lending is undergoing a major strategic reshuffle. With a key market participant exiting the space, a significant share of both marketing and originations is now in flux. What’s happening: Direct mail volumes in home equity nearly match those in first mortgages—despite the latter holding larger balances. ITA volumes alone topped 8 million in May 2025. Total tappable home equity stands near $29.5 trillion, underscoring a massive opportunity.(source: Experian property data.) Lenders willing to recalibrate quickly can unlock high-intent borrowers—especially as more consumers seek cash flow flexibility without refinancing into higher rates.   Direct Mail and Offer Channel Trends The continued surge in ITA campaigns illustrates a broader market pivot. Lenders are favoring: Controlled timing and messaging Multichannel alignment Improved compliance flexibility May 2025 Mail Volumes: Offer Type Mortgage Home Equity ITA 29.2M 25.8M Prescreen 15.6M 19.0M Strategic Insights for Lenders 1. Invest in Personalized Offers Drive better response rates with prescreen or ITA campaigns. Leverage data assets like Experian ConsumerView for ITA’s for robust behavioral and lifestyle segmentation. For prescreen, achieve pinpoint-personalization with offers built on propensity models, property attributes, and credit characteristics. 2. Seize the Home Equity Opening Use urgency-based messaging to attract consumers searching for fast access to equity—without the complexity of a full refi. Additionally, as mentioned above, leverage propensity, credit, and property (i.e. equity) data to optimize your marketing spend. 3. Strengthen Risk Controls Even in a low-delinquency environment, vigilance matters. Account Review campaigns, custom scorecards, and real-time monitoring help stay ahead of rising 90+ DPD segments. 4. Benchmark Smarter Competitive intelligence is key. Evaluate offer volumes, audience segmentation, and marketing timing to refine your next campaign. FAQ Q: What does the exit of a major home equity player mean? A: It leaves a significant gap in both marketing activity and borrower targeting. Lenders able to act quickly can capture outsized share in a category rich with equity and demand. Q: How should lenders respond to the evolving risk profile? A: Continue to monitor performance closely, but focus on forward-looking indicators like trended data, income verification, and alternative credit signals. Conclusion The housing market in July 2025 presents a clear message: the fundamentals are sound, but the strategies are shifting. Those ready to optimize outreach by making smarter use of data will seize a disproportionate share in both mortgage and home equity. Want to stay ahead? Connect with Experian Mortgage Solutions for the insights, tools, and strategies to grow in today’s evolving lending environment.  

Published: August 29, 2025 by Jonathan Reese

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