Trends suggest summer season will see spike in auto sales

by Kyle Matthies 4 min read June 8, 2016

blog-post-cars-image-02-930x420

It’s more than mercury that will be up this summer. As temperatures climb, so do automotive sales, which often reach annual highs during the warmest months of the year. Fueled by pent-up demand coming out of the recession, historically low interest rates, and increased competition among both manufacturers and lenders, auto sales are continuing to be a bright spot in the U.S. economy.

Summer sales spike

auto-summer-sales

According to recent research by Experian Automotive, 2015 sales of new non-luxury vehicles began rising in May and peaked in August at nearly 20 percent above the monthly average for the year. It is not surprising, given the number of notable manufacturer marketing campaigns that often air through the summer months, beginning with Memorial Day and running all the way through Labor Day weekend. The projection is that this trend will continue in 2016.

Financing moves metal

Financing continues to play an important role in facilitating new car sales. Experian research shows a consistent increase in the percentage of new vehicles sold with financing with the trend reaching a period high of 85.9 percent in Q4 2015, a 2.3 percent increase over the previous year. The increased financing, is due in part, to continued post-recession liquidity. As the economy has rebounded, lenders have re-emerged with attractive financing rates for buyers. In addition, captive lenders are continuing to support manufacturers with 0 percent subvention offers to increase sales.

Total loan value is on the rise as well, reaching $29,551 in Q4 2015, a 4.1 percent increase over the previous year. Average MSRP is trending up too, but at a slower year-over-year rate of 3.6 percent. The slower growth in MSRP relative to total loan value is leading to increased loan-to-value ratios which reached 109.4 percent in Q4 2015.

The increases in loan value and MSRP are putting pressure on monthly payment with average new vehicle payments reaching $493 per month on new loans in the fourth quarter. Seeking relief, consumers are turning to longer loan terms and leasing to maintain lower payments. As a result, average new vehicle loan terms ticked slightly higher to 67 months while lease penetration on new vehicles reached 28.9 percent, a 19 percent increase over the previous year.

Leveraging the trends

Timing is everything when it comes to auto lending. Direct mail remains an effective communication tool for lenders, but mass mailers without regard to response rates yield poor ROIs and put future campaigns in jeopardy. Targeting consumers who are most likely to be in the market at a point in time can increase response rates and improve overall campaign performance. Experian’s In the Market Model – Auto leverages the power of trended credit data to identify consumers that will be most receptive to an offer. By focusing on high-propensity consumers, lenders can conduct more marketing campaigns during the year with the same budget and achieve supercharged results.

Context-based marketing allows lenders to tailor offers by leveraging insights on a consumer’s existing loans. Product offers can additionally be customized based on estimated interest rates, months remaining, or current loan balance on open auto loans. Targeted refinance offers can also be delivered to consumers with high interest rates or focus new-loan offers on consumers with minimal months or balance remaining on existing loans. Understanding current auto loans allows lenders to target offers that are relevant to their prospects and gain an advantage over the competition.

Increases in loan-to-value (LTV) ratios at origination and longer loan terms are putting many consumers in deep negative equity positions. As a result, many consumers will not qualify for refinance offers without significant down payments leading to low underwriting conversion rates and poor customer experience. Lenders seeking to improve on these metrics should leverage Experian’s Auto Equity Model, which provides an estimate of the amount of equity a consumer has in their existing auto trades. Focusing refinance offers on consumers with negative equity, while suppressing those with deep negative positions, can help improve response rates while minimizing declines due to LTV requirements.

Takeaways

Lenders should be gearing up for the summer auto sales spike. Proactive strategies will allow savvy marketers to deploy capital and grow their portfolio by taking advantage of customer insight. Timing and context matter, and as auto sales trends reveal, now is the opportune time to optimize marketing efforts and capitalize on the season.

Related Posts

Ask the Expert: The Future of Lending Starts With Identity With Shawn Rife and Brian Cardona

Identity intelligence and alternative data can help lenders validate consumers and support more informed decisions across the customer lifecycle.

September 16, 2026 by Julie Lee
Financial Institutions Are Rethinking Customer Acqusition

Customer acquisition strategies are constantly evolving toward more precise targeting. From a marketing lens, you can track every step, optimize communication channels and still miss the person most likely to convert. Attribution can tell us which channels work and automation can make marketing spend more efficient. But both assume we know who is actually on the other end. Financial institutions are learning that finding audiences and targeting them is no longer the biggest challenge. As acquisition optimization marketing becomes more sophisticated, teams can measure and act on more signals than before. What they can't always know is whether the person on the receiving end is real. Customer acquisition has evolved into an identity problem. The challenge is not that every questionable signal represents malicious activity. It's that acquisition systems must make increasingly intelligent decisions with an imperfect understanding of who they're actually engaging. When identities are fragmented, duplicated, temporary or synthetic, optimization becomes a question of trust as much as targeting. When your signals don't reliably identify customers The customer journey often includes searching, filling out a form, creating an account, requesting a quote and subscribing. All of these signals work well when identity is relatively stable.  However, financial institutions are finding that these signals are becoming less reliable. A single person can operate across multiple personas, devices, browsers, aliases, accounts and intermediaries while several apparent “people” may actually represent one underlying actor. Financial instituions are finding: Fragmented customer signals Difficulty distinguishing an old account from a new one Different digital pathways associated with the same individual Signals that are generated by automation Real customers getting flagged because signals are too thin to evaluate confidently Legacy signals continue to be challenged Marketing has historically treated intent as a valuable signal because intent was relatively difficult to produce. A search required human intent. A form required someone to fill it out. An inquiry implied a meaningful amount of human effort. Financial institutions are already combating AI-enabled fraud, and now marketing teams are starting to face it on a massive scale. AI can mimic human behavior by researching products, comparing prices, filling out forms, creating accounts and signing up for services. A valid email address is no longer enough. Marketers need to know: How long has it existed? How recently has it been active? Does its activity appear consistent or suddenly anomalous? Has it gone dormant and returned? Is it associated with patterns that suggest stability or unusual behavior? How to build on your strongest signal Email remains one of the most persistent identifiers in digital commerce, following people across devices, platforms, transactions, subscriptions, accounts and years of activity. For over two decades, this has shaped how AtData thinks about identity. Now, as part of Experian, it’s shaping how an entire platform and team approach identity. A marketer doesn’t need every prospect to have existed online for twenty years. But understanding whether a newly acquired prospect has meaningful identity context can dramatically improve the quality of the decision being made around it. Better identity intelligence can help organizations reduce unnecessary friction by improving their ability to recognize legitimate customers. With a strong identity foundation, marketing teams can better address: Which audiences are more likely to convert? Which leads are high quality? Which channels are driving incremental growth? What do the best prospects look like? The value isn't simply having an email address. It's understanding the history and behavioral context associated with it. That context can provide a stronger digital identity signal, helping marketers understand how long they have been active, whether its behavior is consistent with that of a real person and whether current activity aligns with past patterns. It continues to be one of the most persistent identifiers in digital commerce. An infrastructure built for what's coming The acquisition of AtData by Experian reflects a fundamental shift in how identity infrastructure needs to work. Experian's scale and decisioning capabilities, combined with AtData's real-time email intelligence, create a strong platform. Read more about the why behind the acquisition and see how email works as an identity anchor for fraud prevention. Contact us to learn about our customer acquisition solutions

September 15, 2026 by Zohreen Ismail
As Electric Vehicle Adoption Eases, Dealers Can Find New Opportunities To Reach Consumers

After years of rapid growth, new electric vehicle (EV) registrations have moderated, and the EV market has entered a new chapter. But slower growth shouldn’t be mistaken for disappearing demand, with data suggesting the reality is much more nuanced. According to Experian Automotive’s Automotive Consumer Trends Report: Q2 2026, battery EVs accounted for 8.21% of new retail registrations in the last 12 months, down from 9.23% a year earlier. However, consumers aren’t simply walking away from electrification. In fact, more than one million new EVs were registered during the past 12 months and the used EV market recorded more than 540,000 registrations over the same period. The opportunity may be less about waiting for the EV market to grow and more about understanding where EV demand is present, who is driving them, and how to reach those consumers more effectively. Who is likely to purchase an EV and what vehicle types are they interested in? Understanding who’s in the market for an EV can allow dealers to position themselves around consumers’ needs as they choose a vehicle that fits their everyday lifestyle. In the second quarter of 2026, Millennials and Gen X accounted for 67.83% of new EV registrations, nearly 10 percentage points above their combined share of all new, retail registrations. Millennials were also the largest generational audience across both new and used EV market share, coming in at 35.76% and 38.42%, respectively. It’s important to consider that the EV shopper isn’t necessarily looking for an unfamiliar or new type of vehicle. In many cases, they’re seemingly looking for an electric version of the practical vehicle they already know. For instance, SUVs accounted for 77.47% of new EV registrations in Q2 2026, which was similar to SUVs’ 63.49% share of all new retail registrations. For these shoppers, creating messaging around value, practicality, and available choices may resonate differently than premium technology messaging aimed at some new-EV prospects. The more precisely dealers can identify those audiences, the less they need to depend on broad EV market momentum to generate demand. To learn more about EV insights, view the full Automotive Consumer Trends Report: Q2 2026 presentation.

September 15, 2026 by Kirsten Von Busch

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Enter your name and email for the latest updates.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Don't miss out on the latest industry trends and insights!
Subscribe