The Future of Fraud

by Guest Contributor 4 min read November 3, 2014

By: Ori Eisen

This article originally appeared on WIRED.

When I started 41st Parameter more than a decade ago, I had a sense of what fraud was all about. I’d spent several years dealing with fraud while at VeriSign and American Express. As I considered the problem, I realized that fraud was something that could never be fully prevented. It’s a dispiriting thing to accept that committed criminals will always find some way to get through even the toughest defenses. Dispiriting, but not defeating.

The reason I chose to dedicate my life to stopping online fraud is because I saw where the money was going. Once you follow the money and you see how it is used, you can’t “un-know.” The money ends up supporting criminal activities around the globe – not used to buy grandma a gift.

Over the past 10 years the nature of fraud has become more sophisticated and systematized. Gone are the days of the lone wolf hacker seeing what they could get away with. Today, those days seem almost simple. Not that I should be saying it, but fraud and the people who perpetrated it had a cavalier air about them, a bravado. It was as if they were saying, in the words of my good friend Frank Abagnale, “catch me if you can.”

They learned to mimic the behaviors and clone the devices of legitimate users. This allowed them to have a field day, attacking all sorts of businesses and syphoning away their ill-gotten gains. We learned too. We learned to look hard and close at the devices that attempted to access an account. We looked at things that no one knew could be seen. We learned to recognize all of the little parameters that together represented a device. We learned to notice when even one of them was off.

The days of those early fraudsters has faded. New forces are at work to perpetrate fraud on an industrial scale. Criminal enterprises have arisen. Specializations have emerged. Brute force attacks, social engineering, sophisticated malware – all these tools, and so many more – are being applied every day to cracking various security systems. The criminal underworld is awash in credentials, which are being used to create accounts, take over accounts and commit fraudulent transactions.

The impact is massive. Every year, billions of dollars are lost due to cyber crime. Aside from the direct monetary losses, customer lose faith in brand and businesses, resources need to be allocated to reviewing suspect transactions and creativity and energy are squandered trying to chase down new risks and threats.

To make life just a little simpler, I operate from the assumption that every account, every user name and every password has been compromised. As I said at the start, fraud isn’t something that can be prevented. By hook or by crook (and mainly by crook), fraudsters are finding cracks they can slip through; it’s bound to happen. By watching carefully, we can see when they slip up and stop them from getting away with their intended crimes.

If the earliest days of fraud saw impacts on individuals, and fraud today is impacting enterprises, the future of fraud is far more sinister.

We’re already seeing hints of fraud’s dark future.

Stories are swirling around the recent Wall Street hack. The President and his security team were watching warily, wondering if this was the result of a state-sponsored activity. Rather than just hurting businesses or their customers, we’re on the brink (if we haven’t crossed it already) of fraud being used to destabilize economies. If that doesn’t keep you up at night I don’t know what will.

Think about it: in less than a decade we have gone from fraud being an isolated irritant (not that it wasn’t a problem) to being viewed as a potential, if clandestine, weapon. The stakes are no longer the funds in an account or even the well being of a business. Today – and certainly tomorrow – the stakes will be higher. Fraudsters, terrorists really, will look for ways to nudge economies toward the abyss.

Sadly, the ability of fraudsters to infiltrate legitimate accounts and networks will never be fully stifled. The options available to them are just too broad for every hole to be plugged. What we can do is recognize when they’ve made it through our defenses and prevent them from taking action. It’s the same approach we’ve always had: they may get in while we do everything possible to prevent them from doing harm.

In an ideal world bad guys would never get through in the first place; but we don’t live in an ideal world. In the real world they’re going to get in. Knowing this isn’t easy. It isn’t comforting or comfortable. But in the real world there are real actions we can take to protect the things that matter – your money, your data and your sense of security.

We learned how to fight fraud in the past, we are fighting it with new technologies today and we will continue to apply insights and new approaches to protect our future.

Download our Perspective Paper to learn about a number of factors that are contributing to the evolving fraud landscape.

Related Posts

The Email Address as Your Most Powerful Identity Signal

The why behind Experian's acquisition of AtData What happens when a comprehensive email intelligence database joins a global leader in data, analytics and fraud prevention? The acquisition of AtData adds 25+ years of building a complete view of email as an identity signal. Financial institutions can recognize, engage and protect customers unlocking a new standard for the way their teams work and the customer experience. That's what Experian's acquisition of AtData delivers. How we got here Not all email addresses tell the same story. Some are newly created. Some exhibit bot-like patterns. Some are inconsistent with every other signal you have about that person. Imagine a real customer. You have a job. You shop online. You have a primary email from your employer, a personal Gmail you've used for 15 years, and an old Yahoo address you still use for shopping because you've been using it since college. You're an engaged customer who interacts with brands, makes purchases and pays bills on time. But each system sees a different version of you. When you apply for credit, the lender sees one email. When you shop, the retailer sees another. When you sign up for a service, you might use the third. For financial institutions: You slow down the approval process to manually verify identity or approve applicants without the full picture. For retailers: You can't tell which version of "customer" is the most engaged, so you either over-mail or under-serve. For fraud systems: Sees a new account created under one email and flags it as suspicious because it doesn't have the history. This was the original problem AtData was built to solve in 1999. Twenty-five years later, that problem didn’t go away, it became more complex. Email fragmentation and device sharing are more common, and identity theft is more sophisticated. Capabilities that now work together Experian has built sophisticated identity and fraud solutions backed by consumer data resources and decades of expertise in credit and risk. AtData brought the ability to assess whether an email address is trustworthy, reachable and consistent—at scale, in real time. Experian is now making email intelligence foundational, not optional. This matters for: Fraud prevention and risk management: Distinguishing a returning customer from a new threat. Knowing whether an email is newly created, exhibiting bot-like patterns or inconsistent with other identities is crucial. Compliance: Building audit trails that can explain identity decisions. Email data history and behavioral signals create the documentation needed to defend your decisions. Credit: Verifying identity in a world where traditional signals are shifting. Email signals provide a persistent, durable identifier that confirms who someone actually is. Marketing: Reaching the right person across email, mail and digital channels. Email intelligence reveals which addresses are actively engaged and reachable. Research shows email remains one of the highest-ROI marketing channels outperforming paid search and social advertising1. The problem every marketer faces: You end up burning budget on addresses that bounce, are unmonitored or are associated with users who never open mail. For credit marketing specifically, email enables faster, more targeted delivery of firm offers across channels, something that's increasingly important in a post-cookie world. "Email is a persistent identifier in a fragmented world. It's what connects a person's postal address, phones, devices, behaviors—the full picture of who they are. By embedding that into our infrastructure, we're not just adding another data point. We're fundamentally improving how businesses understand who their customers are."- Ashley Knight, Senior Vice President, Financial Services and Data Why now? AI is reshaping how decisions are made in every industry. Models are getting faster, more automated and more embedded in core workflows. But AI is only as effective as the data behind it. Fragmented data + fast models = faster, larger-scale misclassifications. In an era of synthetic identities, AI agents, deepfakes and AI-generated activity, the value of durable, persistent, real-world data signals has increased dramatically. Deloitte’s Center for Financial Services projects that generative AI could drive fraud losses in the U.S. up to $40 billion by 2027, a 32% growth rate since 2023. And email sits at the center of it with business email compromise already being one of the most common and costly fraud types. People change phones, move homes and swap devices, but they often hold onto their email for years. That's the signal that protects your business, and the one we've built into the core of how we help you make decisions with confidence. View the press release here

August 6, 2026 by Zohreen Ismail
Building Financial Opportunity Through Purpose-Driven Partnership

Discover how the National Urban League and Experian partner to expand financial literacy and create economic opportunity.

August 6, 2026 by Scarlet Nickel
2026 U.S. Identity and Fraud Report 

Explore key findings and insights from our newly released 2026 U.S. Identity and Fraud Report. Read more now!

August 5, 2026 by Laura Burrows

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Enter your name and email for the latest updates.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Don't miss out on the latest industry trends and insights!
Subscribe