Welcome to the Experian Thought Leadership Hub

In this webinar, Experian experts explore how organizations can apply proven consumer fraud prevention tactics to strengthen commercial lending defenses.

What you'll learn:

• How consumer fraud strategies can be adapted for commercial use cases
• Where commercial lending is most exposed and how to mitigate risk
• How shared signals across identity, behavior and devices can improve detection

The U.S. economy continued to expand in Q4 2025, though the pace of growth slowed and underlying indicators presented increasingly mixed signals. Real GDP rose at a 1.4% annualized rate, reflecting continued expansion but marking a deceleration from earlier in the year. In January 2026[GS1.1][SM1.2], inflation moderated to 2.4% year-over-year, providing relief to businesses and consumers alike. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained relatively low at 4.3%, underscoring ongoing labor market resilience.

However, beneath these stable headline indicators, signs of cooling emerged. Consumer spending and retail sales slowed during the quarter, suggesting households are becoming more selective amid elevated borrowing costs and slower wage growth. While consumer sentiment edged slightly higher in December, spending momentum weakened. Wage growth continued to moderate, and labor market churn declined, with lower quits and softer hiring activity signaling a gradual normalization rather than contraction.

According to the Experian Small Business Index™, business credit conditions remained within the typical 40-60 range. Lending availability showed slight tightening during the fourth quarter, while APRs remained elevated but stable. Entrepreneurial momentum remained strong. New business formations averaged approximately 509,000 per month, with acceleration most pronounced in the South and West.

Despite these pressures, optimism improved modestly among both consumers and small business owners. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index both recorded gains in December, suggesting confidence has stabilized even as economic momentum slows. As 2025 closesclosed, small businesses remained fundamentally stable but increasingly cautious, navigating a higher-cost credit environment and moderating demand.

The holidays are here, and Black Friday sparks a surge in consumer spending. U.S. small businesses are proving remarkably resilient despite persistent economic challenges. Inflation held at 3.0% in September, and interest rates remain elevated, yet entrepreneurs are capitalizing on seasonal demand through digital innovation and disciplined financial strategies.

August saw 428,937 new business applications, a 10% year-over-year increase driven by minority and younger founders, while the Experian Small Business Index™ rose to 41.1, signaling improved credit health. With average credit card APRs exceeding 21.5%, small firms are shifting toward installment loans to finance inventory and holiday promotions, ensuring structured repayment and sustainable growth.

This adaptability positions local retailers to turn economic headwinds into opportunities, leveraging festive shopping momentum to strengthen their foothold in a competitive market. 

As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report dives into the financial health of the restaurant sector amid rising costs and shifting consumer behavior.

Key insights:

• Menu prices at Full-Service Restaurants rose 4.6% in August — outpacing inflation.
• Limited-Service Restaurants are showing improved credit risk scores, suggesting stronger adaptability.
• Credit access is tightening across the board, with average credit limits falling below $6,000.
• Revolving credit utilization is climbing — an early signal of potential cash flow strain.

What does this mean for lenders and decision makers?

✅ Not all restaurant types face the same risks.

✅ Segmenting credit strategies is more important than ever.

✅ Watch utilization and inquiry trends closely — they may be early indicators of distress.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

The construction industry has experienced significant growth over the last seven years, but fresh data reveals mounting signs of financial stress that commercial lenders and Chief Risk Officers should be closely monitoring.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

According to Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report, business formation remains strong:

• 471,000 new business applications were filed in July alone
• Between 2018 and 2023, the number of new businesses establishing commercial credit rose by 38%
• New businesses today look more financially stable than those from earlier years

What’s driving this resilience?

👉 Faster tech adoption

👉 Hybrid business models

👉 Stronger financial fundamentals

The pandemic forced small businesses to transform at record speed. Now, they’re leveraging those lessons to build smarter, more adaptable enterprises.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

Experian’s Brodie Oldham, VP of Commercial Data Science, and Marsha Silverman, Strategic Analytic Consultant revealed several insights on how small businesses are performing during the Q2 Quarterly Business Credit Review.

During the webinar we asked the audience:

• Which macroeconomic factor is having the greatest impact on small business credit conditions this year?
• What actions if any have you taken in 2025 in response to additional tariff?
• How are small businesses adapting to tighter credit conditions in 2025?

Why you should watch:

• Leading Experts on Commercial and Macro-Economic Trends
• Credit insights and trends on 30+ Million active businesses
• Industry Hot Topics Covered (Inclusive of Business Owner and Small Business Data)
• Commercial Insights you cannot get anywhere else
• Peer Insights with Interactive Polls (Participate)
• Discover and understand small business trends to make informed decisions
• Actionable takeaways based on recent credit performance

Outstanding student loan debt in the U.S. has reached an all-time high of $1.63 trillion, and the ripple effects are being felt far beyond the personal finance arena. This unprecedented debt burden is now shaping the way many small business owners borrow, manage credit, and maintain financial stability.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report