The early assessment for the automotive industry is that despite significant challenges at the onset of the pandemic, the industry continues to rebound.
Origination data from April and May provide some insight into the more immediate effects of the pandemic on the automotive industry.
In uncertain times, we need to find ways to adapt to our situation. We want to help you manage through this unprecedented period.
Beginning with the birth of stock muscle cars, like the Pontiac GTO, vehicles with powerful V8 engines permeated the roads in the 1960s. Given consumers’ “need for speed,” these vehicles were synonymous with American culture following World War II - some going as far as to call muscle cars as American as apple pie. It’s no doubt that these vehicles have made an undeniable lasting impression on the automotive industry. Today, there are still automotive enthusiasts who appreciate the style and strength of the muscle car, but most of us want practical vehicles with better fuel economy and easy maintenance. This has resulted in a dramatic increase in the volume of 4-cylinder vehicles on the road. As seen in the graphic above, over the last 11 years, 4-cylinder engines have increased in volume over 55%, 6-cylinder have declined 4% and 8-cylinders have increased 9.8%. More power, smaller engines This trend doesn’t necessarily mean that those of us who elect for a smaller engine size aren’t able to satisfy our need for speed. Horsepower has received a significant boost over the past two decades. This has been partially driven by EPA guidelines, as manufacturers have implemented engine enhancements to increase gas mileage to meet the guidelines, resulting in higher horsepower. 4-cylinder engines have as much horsepower today as 6-cylinder engines had in 2003. That gives today’s drivers a lot more pep in engine performance. Similarly, today's 6-cylinder engines have nearly the same horsepower today that V8s had in 2009. Where does that leave true muscle car enthusiasts? Well, if you are looking for raw power, things are looking up. In 2018, V8 engines averaged a whopping 370.4 horsepower, nearly double V8 output of 204 horsepower in 1999. Those who buy V8s today have power to burn. Above chart detailing percentage of total volume count and average vehicle MAX HP over history. The automotive market is driven by consumer preferences and offers a range of engine options, which provides something for everyone. The boost in horesepower in today’s engines provides a nice mix of fuel economy and performance. While muscle cars remain an important fixture in American society and automotive culture, demand has shifted and understanding these data points in the broader industry context empowers dealers to make the right inventory decisions. To learn more about the latest automotive trends impacting the marketplace, view the full Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis.
When it comes to new vehicle registration, there is one segment that stands out from the pack: crossover vehicles. According to Experian’s Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis, over the last four years, crossovers (CUVs) have spiked in popularity, representing about a third of new vehicle registrations in 2014 (34.1 percent), but growing to nearly half the new vehicle market in 2018 (47.6 percent). In fact, the large growth in CUVs isn’t limited to just the last four years – there was a large volume of growth year-over-year compared to 2017; the share has grown nearly 4 percent. Sedans and hatchbacks, meanwhile, have seen their share decrease year-over-year. The charts below detail this change in market, based on Experian’s latest 2018 quarterly findings. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) What’s driving this growth? Across the board, the number of light-duty vehicles on the road continues to increase, up to 275.3 million in the U.S. market, at the end of 2018, compared to 271.4 million a year prior. The growth in CUVs isn’t entirely unprecedented, as it’s been going on for a number of years. CUVs continue to grow in popularity for a variety of reasons including: Greater visibility, as the driver sits higher than in a sedan/coupe Larger storage capacities for passengers or cargo Number of varieties available, such as size, engines, and manufactures Higher fuel efficiency than a full-size SUV or minivan Currently, there are over 130 different CUV/SUV Make/Model combos offered, and of those, the different engines, options, etc. drive that volume even higher. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) Potential for growth Currently, there are only two CUVs among the top vehicles in the aftermarket “sweet spot.” Vehicles in the sweet spot are 6 to 12 model years old, and typically aged out of general OEM warranties for any repairs. These vehicles likely require more part replacement services, which may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers. According to Experian data, the sweet spot has stopped falling and has settled for now. But, there is expected growth of the number of vehicles that fall into the sweet spot over the coming years. One of the segments where the aftermarket industry can begin to focus on will be CUVs. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) The aftermarket can use this data to make more informed product decisions, specifically, around the high volume of CUVs expected to come into the sweet spot. With the number of vehicle options available on the market today, CUVs will continue to stand out as a segment to watch within the auto industry. There’s a greater story beyond the numbers and understanding how to leverage the data at hand can provide the industry with a greater understanding of CUVs and its potential for even greater growth. To learn more about CUVs/SUVs and total vehicles in operation, view the full Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis.
Like every other industry, the automotive market is driven by consumer preferences and behavior. While there are a myriad of options to choose from, fuel-type seems to dominate media headlines as a hot topic of conversation among industry pundits and consumers, alike. Little surprise then that alternative fuel vehicles, which include diesels and hybrids, have maintained a steady demand over the past few years. But, there’s a specific segment that’s beginning to emerge. As we detailed in our earlier blog series, electric vehicles (EVs) are began to stand out as a prominent alternative fuel vehicle. And during Q3 2018, we saw more of the same. EVs held 1.8 percent share of total vehicle registrations. While that number may seem small, consider this. Just two years ago, in 2016, EVs comprised only 0.5 percent of registrations, growing at a much slower pace since 2014, when it was 0.4 percent. It’s worth noting that gasoline-powered cars still dominate the market, making up 92.9 percent of registered vehicles through Q3 2018. But, the demand for alternative fuel type options should not be underestimated. Alternative fuel vehicles are becoming a significant segment in today’s auto market, and the large growth in EVs are a testament to that growth. While EVs are proving to be a popular option compared to other alternative fuel types, other options remained steady. Diesel vehicles maintained 2.8 percent of the market year-over-year, while hybrid vehicles saw a slight increase since 2017, growing from 2.6 to 2.8 percent of the market. A picture of the alternative fuel buyer So, who’s investing in these alternative fuel vehicles? We see that most buyers tend to be married, single family home owners with a college education, and belong to either the Baby Boomer generation or Gen X. It’s interesting to note that EVs make up a notable percentage of registrations of alternative fuel type preferences across generational car buyers, according to Q3 registration data. Among Baby Boomers, EVs fall second to hybrids, accounting for 1.0 percent of registered alternative fuel type vehicles compared to 1.2 percent respectively. But, EVs made up the biggest share of alternative fuel type registrations among Millennials (1.1 percent) and Gen X’ers (1.2 percent). With the number of vehicle options available on the market today, EVs stand out as a segment to watch within the auto industry. There’s a greater story beyond the numbers and understanding how to leverage the data at hand can provide the industry with a greater understanding of the EV market and its potential. To learn more about the electric vehicle market and other alternative fuel type vehicles, view the full Q3 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis webinar.
The auto industry is blessed with an abundance of data - market research, demand estimates, demographic trends, registration history, not to mention your dealership's own sales and inventory data. Dealers are often visual people - who love beautiful cars more than boring spreadsheets. The more visual you can make your data, the easier it will be to make decisions based on what it's telling you. Here are the five steps to being a data-driven dealer. 1. Where am I selling the most cars? You probably have a good instinct about where the "hot spots" are around your dealership. But there's a reason many dealers often display a map somewhere in the dealership, with pushpins representing recent new and used sales. It's a tried-and-true technique because there's no substitute for a visual representation of data, especially to get a good sense of where you're currently successful. More importantly, it will also help you answer a critical question - where should I be selling the most cars? By layering your web stats, such as Google Analytics, on top of your sales data, you can start to see whether your PPC spend is resulting in sales. Then layer on registration data to understand whether you're maximizing opportunity in your own backyard. You might already be selling a lot of cars into a town, but looking at your on-brand market share will help you determine if you've fully penetrated the area. Looking at overall market activity, not just your own data, is required to understand where you fit into the bigger picture and decide upon your best sales strategy. 2. Where should we be conquesting? Once you've confirmed that you're (hopefully) dominating in your town and those directly adjacent to you, it's time to turn your eye to how to take on competitive dealerships farther afield. Again, data can help you determine next steps and target your budget appropriately. Every dealership approaches and defines "conquesting" a little differently, but there are two common techniques that can be made much easier using recent registration statistics. First, look for ZIP Codes outside of your immediate PMA that are selling a high number of on-brand vehicles. These are your competitors' happiest hunting grounds; focus on enticing shoppers in those areas to drive a little further to take advantage of special pricing or promotions, rather than attacking blindly in a 20-mile radius. 3. What is my best performing campaign now? No matter what your position is at the dealership, you need to know what's working best at any given moment. The GM needs to be able to make on-the-fly budgeting decisions, while the e-commerce Director wants to know which campaigns are working and what to do more of. But too often, the only objective measures we're regularly provided are traffic stats. Traffic is important, of course, but we'd suggest there are three factors dealers should evaluate for every campaign. A campaign may be driving lots of shoppers to your site, but if they're immediately leaving the site, they aren't worth much for you. A high bounce rate is your first sign that something is amiss since shoppers aren’t finding what they were looking for on your site. A second-level analysis involves looking at what other pages visitors looked at after hitting the campaign landing page. For an offer focused on a specific vehicle, visitors should be moving on to look at inventory on VDP pages. Free oil change promotion? Visitors should be spending time on the service portion of your site. Work with your agency or internal e-commerce team to determine what content, language and images are the most effective at engaging potential buyers to take the desired action. Speaking of action, conversion rate is your single best measure of whether a campaign is performing to expectations. Just make sure you're measuring actions that matter: Form submissions, email leads, mobile clicks to call, and visits to hours and directions pages all indicate various levels of positive customer interest in beginning a dialogue. 4. How do I determine whether my traditional advertising spend is producing results? Measuring dealer marketing ROI can be challenging, especially for traditional advertising. History tells us that radio, TV, newspaper, and outdoor are successful in driving demand, but quantifying that effect can be an elusive goal. But there are methods that will get you closer to determine the effect of your traditional efforts on sales. By tagging the start dates of all your marketing activities and mapping them on a trendline of your traffic for your URLs, leads such as phone calls, chat, and coupon codes for your service department as well as sales, you'll get a good sense about whether your offline campaigns are generating online interest. 5. Who is my ideal customer? Once you understand which models are likely to move next month, your next question should be: "Who am I selling to?" You probably have a good sense of your typical customer profile for many models (there's a good chance you're showing minivans and SUVs to young families, for example). But do you know where those customers live? And how to best talk to them? There is an incredible amount of data available on consumers, from credit history to buying behavior to lifestyle preferences. So how do you make use of this rich consumer data? At a basic level, Experian data can tell you a lot about the residents of each ZIP Code surrounding your dealership - from average age, income, and number of children, all the way to the most prevalent Mosaic® profiles in each town. In a previous article, we talk about locating your ideal customer using Mosaic profiles. You might have a high number of "American Royalty" in one area, or an abundance of "Sports Utility Families" just a couple of towns over. This information can tell you not only where you might want to market particular models, but what medium and messaging will resonate best in each area. While only 15 miles apart, the Boston suburbs of Sudbury and Norwood are home to very different types of BMW buyers, suggesting vastly different marketing campaigns to best appeal to each. Data is a necessary tool for understanding your ideal customer, improving your marketing results, and selling more vehicles. These five steps to becoming a data-driven dealer address all your requirements to enrich your marketing and conquest more successfully.