Credit & Risk

Experian's most recent Credit Trends study analyzing current debt levels and credit scores in the top 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas found that Detroit, Michigan, residents have the lowest average debt ($23,604) and Dallas, Texas, residents have the highest average debt ($28,240).1

Following a full year of steady improvement, small-business credit conditions stumbled during the first quarter of 2014.

Julie Conroy - Research Director, Aite Group Finding patterns indicative of money laundering and other financial crimes is akin to searching for a needle in a haystack. With the increasing pressure on banks’ anti-money laundering (AML) and fraud teams, many with this responsibility increasingly feel like they’re searching for those needles while a combine is bearing down on them at full speed. These pressures include: Regulatory scrutiny: The high-profile—and expensive—U.S. enforcement actions that took place during the last couple of years underscore the extent to which regulators are scrutinizing FIs and penalizing those who don’t pass muster. Payment volumes and types increasing: As the U.S. economy is gradually easing its way into a recovery, payment volumes are increasing. Not only are volumes rebounding to pre-recession levels, but there have also been a number of new financial products and payment formats introduced over the last few years, which further increases the workload for the teams who have to screen these payments for money-laundering, sanctions, and global anti-corruption-related exceptions. Constrained budgets: All of this is taking place during a time in which top line revenue growth is constrained and financial institutions are under pressure to reduce expenses and optimize efficiency. Illicit activity on the rise: Criminal activity continues to increase at a rapid pace. The array of activity that financial institutions’ AML units are responsible for detecting has also experienced a significant increase in scope over the last decade, when the USA PATRIOT Act expanded the mandate from pure money laundering to also encompass terrorist financing. financial institutions have had to transition from activity primarily focused on account-level monitoring to item-level monitoring, increasing by orders of magnitude the volumes of alerts they must work (Figure 1) Figure 1: U.S. FIs Are Swimming in Alerts   Source: Aite Group interviews with eight of the top 30 FIs by asset size, March to April 2013 There are technologies in market that can help. AML vendors continue to refine their analytic and matching capabilities in an effort to help financial insitutions reduce false positives while not adversely affecting detection rates. Hosted solutions are increasingly available, reducing total cost of ownership and making software upgrades easier. And many institutions are working on internal efficiency efforts, reducing vendors, streamlining processes, and eliminating the number of redundant efforts. How are institutions handling the increasing pressure cooker that is AML compliance?  Aite Group wants to know your thoughts.  We are conducting a survey of financial insitution executives to understand your pain points and proposed solutions.  Please take 20 minutes to share your thoughts, and in return, we’ll share a complimentary copy of the resulting report. This data can be used to compare your efforts to those of your peers as well as to glean new ideas and best practices.  All responses will be kept confidential and no institutions names will be mentioned anywhere in the report.  You can access the survey here: SURVEY    

The discovery of Heartbleed earlier this year uncovered a large-scale threat that exploits security vulnerability in OpenSSL posing a serious security concern. This liability gave hackers access to servers for many Websites and put consumers’ credentials and private information at risk. Since the discovery, most organizations with an online presence have been trying to determine whether their servers incorporate the affected versions of OpenSSL. However, the impact will be felt even by organizations that do not use OpenSSL, as some consumers could reuse the same password across sites and their password may have been compromised elsewhere.  The new vulnerabilities online and in the mobile space increase the challenges that security professionals face, as fraud education is a necessity for companies. Our internal fraud experts share their recommendation in the wake of the Heartbleed bug and what companies can do to help mitigate future occurrences. Here are two suggestions on how to prevent compromised credentials from turning into compromised accounts: Authentication Adopting layered security strategy Authentication The importance of multidimensional and risk-based authentication cannot be overstated. Experian Decision Analytics and 41st Parameter® recommend a layered approach when it comes to responding to future threats like the recent Heartbleed bug. Such methods include combining comprehensive authentication processes at customer acquisition with proportionate measures to monitor user activities throughout the life cycle.  "Risk-based authentication is best defined and implemented in striking a balance between fraud risk mitigation and positive customer experience," said Keir Breitenfeld, Vice President of Fraud Product Management for Experian Decision Analytics. "Attacks such as the recent Heartbleed bug further highlight the foundational requirement of any online business or agency applications to adopt multifactor identity and device authentication and monitoring processes throughout their Customer Life Cycle."  Some new authentication technologies that do not rely on usernames and passwords could be part of the broader solution. This strategic change involves the incorporation of broader layered-security strategy. Using only authentication puts security strategists in a difficult position since they must balance: Market pressure for convenience (Note that some mobile banking applications now provide access to balances and recent transactions without requiring a formal login.) New automated scripts for large-scale account surveillance. The rapidly growing availability of compromised personal information. Layered security "Layered security through a continuously refined set of ‘locks’ that immediately identify fraudulent access attempts helps organizations to protect their invaluable customer relationships," said Mike Gross, Global Risk Strategy Director for 41st Parameter. "Top global sites should be extra vigilant for an expected rush of fraud-related activities and social engineering attempts through call centers as fraudsters try to take advantage of an elevated volume of password resets."  By layering security consistently through a continuously refined set of controls, organizations can identify fraudulent access attempts, unapproved contact information changes and suspicious transactions. Learn more about fraud intelligence products and services from 41st Parameter, a part of Experian.

In an effort to understand consumer needs better and help lenders educate their customers, VantageScore® Solutions surveyed more than 200 lenders nationwide on the topic of score reason codes.

While access to small-business credit is improving and credit balances are increasing, key differences still remain across the United States.

Small-business credit conditions wrapped up the year by showing continued improvement for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Both Visa and MasterCard announced their support for Host Card Emulation (HCE) and their intent to release HCE specifications soon. I have been talking about HCE from late 2012 (partly due to my involvement with SimplyTapp) and you could read as to why HCE matter and what Android KitKat-HCE announcement meant for payments. But in light of the network certification announcements yesterday, this post is an attempt to provide some perspective on what the Visa/MasterCard moves mean, how do their approaches differ in certifying payments using cloud hosted credentials, what should issuers expect from a device and terminal support perspective, why retailers should take note of the debate around HCE and ultimately – the role I expect Google to continue to play around HCE. All good stuff. First, what do the Visa/MasterCard announcements mean? It means that it’s time for banks and other issuers to stop looking for directions. The network announcements around HCE specifications provide the clarity required by issuers to meaningfully invest in mobile contactless provisioning and payment. Further, it removes some of the unfavorable economics inherited from a secure element-centric model, who were forced to default to credit cards with higher interchange in the wallet. Renting space on the secure element cost a pretty penny and that is without taking operational costs in to consideration, and as an issuer if you are starting in the red out of the gate, you were not about to put a Durbin controlled debit card in the wallet. But those compulsions go with the wind now, as you are no longer weighed down by these costs and complexities on day one. And further, the door is open for retailers with private label programs or gift cards to also look at this route with a lot more interest. And they are. MasterCard mentioned bank pilots around HCE in its press release, but MCX is hardly the only retailer payment initiative in town. Let me leave it at that. How do the Visa/MasterCard specs differ? From the press releases, some of those differences are evident – but I believe they will coalesce at some point in the future. MasterCard’s approach speaks to mobile contact-less as the only payment modality, whereas Visa refers to augmenting the PayWave standard with QR and in-app payments in the future. Both approaches refer to payment tokens (single or multi-use) and one can expect them to work together with cloud provisioned card profiles, to secure the payment transaction and verify transactional integrity. To MasterCard’s benefit – it has given much thought to ensuring that these steps – provisioning the card profile, issuing payment tokens et al – are invisible to the consumer and therefore refrains from adding undue friction. I am a purist at heart – and I go back to the first iteration of Google Wallet – where all I had to do to pay was turn on the screen and place the device on the till. That is the simplicity to beat for any issuer or retailer payment experiences when using contactless. Otherwise, they are better off ripping out the point-of-sale altogether. MasterCard’s details also makes a reference to a PIN. The PIN will not be verified offline as it would have been if a Secure Element would have been present in the device, rather – it would be verified online which tells me that an incorrect PIN if input would be used to create an “incorrect cryptogram” which would be rejected upstream. Now I am conflicted using a PIN at the point of sale for anything – to me it is but a Band-Aid, it reflects the inability to reduce fraud without introducing friction. Visa so far seems to be intentionally light on details around mandating a PIN, and I believe not forcing one would be the correct approach – as you wouldn’t want to constrain issuers to entering a PIN as means to do authentication, and instead should have laid down the requirements but left it to the market to decide what would suffice – PIN, biometrics et al. Again – I hope these specs will continue to evolve and move towards a more amenable view towards customer authentication. Where do we stand with device and terminal support? All of this is mute if there are not enough devices that support NFC and specifically – Android KitKat. But if you consider Samsung devices by themselves (which is all one should consider for Android) they control over 30% of the NA market – 44.1 million devices sold in 2013 alone. Lion share of those devices support NFC out of the box – including Galaxy Note II and 3, Galaxy S3 and S4 – and their variants mini, Active, Xoom et al. And still, the disparity in their approach to secure elements, continuing lack of availability in standards and Android support – Tap and Pay was largely a dream. What was also worrisome is that 3 months after the launch of Android KitKat – it still struggles under 2% in device distribution. That being said, things are expected to get markedly better for Samsung devices at least. Samsung has noted that 14 of its newer devices will receive KitKat. These devices include all the NFC phones I have listed above. Carriers must follow through quickly (tongue firmly in cheek) to deliver on this promise before customers with old S3 devices see their contracts expire and move to a competitor (iPhone 6?). Though there was always speculation as to whether an MNO will reject HCE as part of the Android distribution, I see that as highly unlikely. Even carriers know a dead horse when they see one, and Isis’s current model is anything but one. Maybe Isis will move to embrace HCE. And then there is the issue of merchant terminals. When a large block of merchants are invested in upending the role of networks in the payment value chain – that intent ripples far and wide in the payments ecosystem. Though it’s a given that merchants of all sizes can expect to re-terminalize in the next couple of years to chip & pin (with contactless under the hood) – it is still the prerogative of the merchant as to whether the contactless capability is left turned on or off. And if merchants toe Best Buy’s strategy in how it opted to turn it off store-wide, then that limits the utility of an NFC wallet. And why wouldn’t they? Merchants have always viewed “Accept all cards” to also mean “Accept all cards despite the form factor” and believes that contactless could come to occupy a higher interchange tier in the future – as questions around fraud risk are sufficiently answered by the device in real-time. This fear is though largely unsubstantiated, as networks have not indicated that they could come to view mobile contact-less as being a “Card Present Plus” category that charges more. But in the absence of any real assurances, fear, uncertainty and doubt runs rampant. But what could a retailer do with HCE? If re-terminalization is certain, then retailers could do much to explore how to leverage it to close the gap with their customer. Private label credit, closed loop are viable alternatives that can be now carried over contactless – and if previously retailers were cut out of the equation due to heavy costs and complexity for provisioning cards to phones, they have none of those limitations now. A merchant could now fold in a closed loop product (like a gift card) in to their mobile app – and accept those payments over contact-less without resorting to clunky QR or barcode schemes. There is a lot of potential in the closed loop space with HCE, that Retailers are ignoring due to a “scorched earth” approach towards contactless. But smarter merchants are asking ‘how’. Finally, what about Google? Google deserves much praise for finally including HCE in Android and paving the way for brands to recognize the opportunity and certify the approach. That being said, Google has no unequal advantage with HCE. In fact, Google has little to do with HCE going forward, despite GoogleWallet utilization of HCE in the future. I would say – HCE has as much to do with Google going forward, as Amazon’s Kindle Fire has to do with Android. Banks and Retailers have to now decide what this means for them – and view HCE as separate to Google – and embrace it if they believe it has potential to incent their brands to remain top of wallet, and top of mind for the consumer. It is a level playing field, finally. Where do you go next? Indeed – there is a lot to take in – starting with HCE’s role, where it fit in to your payment strategy, impact and differences in Visa/MasterCard approaches, weaving all of these in to your mobile assets while not compromising on customer experience. Clarity and context is key and we can help with both. Reach out to us for a conversation. HCE is a means to an end – freeing you from the costs and complexities of leveraging contactless infrastructure to deliver an end-to-end mobile experience, but there is still the question of how your business should evolve to cater to the needs of your customers in the mobile channel. Payment is after all, just one piece of the puzzle.

Delinquency rates for auto loans moved up slightly in the last quarter of 2013, with the 30 to 59 days past due (DPD), 60 to 89 DPD and 90 to 180 DPD delinquency rates at 2.18 percent, 0.56 percent and 0.24 percent, respectively.

By: Teri Tassara In my blog last month, I covered the importance of using quality credit attributes to gain greater accuracy in risk models.  Credit attributes are also powerful in strengthening the decision process by providing granular views on consumers based on unique behavior characteristics.  Effective uses include segmentation, overlay to scores and policy definition – across the entire customer lifecycle, from prospecting to collections and recovery. Overlay to scores – Credit attributes can be used to effectively segment generic scores to arrive at refined “Yes” or “No” decisions.  In essence, this is customization without the added time and expense of custom model development.  By overlaying attributes to scores, you can further segment the scored population to achieve appreciable lift over and above the use of a score alone. Segmentation – Once you made your “Yes” or “No” decision based on a specific score or within a score range, credit attributes can be used to tailor your final decision based on the “who”, “what” and “why”.  For instance, you have two consumers with the same score. Credit attributes will tell you that Consumer A has a total credit limit of $25K and a BTL of 8%; Consumer B has a total credit limit of $15K, but a BTL of 25%.   This insight will allow you to determine the best offer for each consumer. Policy definition - Policy rules can be applied first to get the desirable universe.  For example, an auto lender may have a strict policy against giving credit to anyone with a repossession in the past, regardless of the consumer’s current risk score. High quality attributes can play a significant role in the overall decision making process, and its expansive usage across the customer lifecycle adds greater flexibility which translates to faster speed to market.  In today’s dynamic market, credit attributes that are continuously aligned with market trends and purposed across various analytical are essential to delivering better decisions.  

Experian’s latest annual State of Credit analysis provides insight into the differences in credit habits by generation. While the youngest group, Millennials, appear to be novice credit managers, Generation Xers have the highest amount of average debt, are slowest to make payments on time and tied with Millennials for highest percentage of credit utilized. The results of the study reinforce the importance of lenders providing transparent consumer education on credit scores and responsible credit behavior. Snapshot of generational debt differences Baby Boomers (47 to 65) Generation X (30 to 46) Millennials (19 to 29) VantageScore® credit score 700 653 628 Average debt $29,317 $30,039 $23,332 Average balance of bankcards $5,347 $5,343 $2,682 Average revolving utilization 30% 37% 37% Late payments 0.33 0.61 0.58 Download our recent Webinar: It’s a new reality ... and time for a new risk score Source: Experian’s State of Credit infographic

The credit appetite for small businesses is strong and growing. Total outstanding balances have risen at their fastest rate in two years, and delinquency rates have fallen at a consistent pace. Only 10 percent of outstanding small-business credit balances were past-due in Q3 — the lowest level of delinquency seen since the recovery began. While this is an encouraging sign, it is important to note that these improvements have come at the cost of hiring new employees and investments. Sign up for the Quarterly Business Credit Review Webinar on Dec. 10 Source: Download the full Experian/Moody’s Analytics Small Business Credit Index report.

Credit trends from the most recent Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report point to a steady economic recovery. Bankcard charge-offs decreased 13 percent year over year (4.5 percent versus 3.9 percent) and delinquent dollars for the 90–180 day past due delinquencies decreased 17.5 percent for the same timeframe (1.6 percent to 1.3 percent). These trends are a positive sign for overall economic recovery and evidence that the current growth in bankcard originations is not coming at the expense of increased delinquencies. Sign up to attend our upcoming Webinar on Q3 credit trends and take a closer look at the impact of consumer behavior on the economic recovery. Source: Data for this article was sourced from Experian’s IntelliViewSM, a Web-based data query, analysis and reporting tool.

In the 1970s, it took an average of 18 days before a decision could be made on a credit card application. Credit decisioning has come a long way since then, and today, we have the ability to make decisions faster than it takes to ring up a customer in person at the point of sale. Enabling real-time credit decisions helps retail and online merchants lay a platform for customer loyalty while incentivizing an increased customer basket size.   While the benefits are clear, customers still are required to be at predetermined endpoints, such as: At the receiving end of a prescreened credit offer in the mail At a merchant point of sale applying for retail credit In front of a personal computer The trends clearly show that customers are moving away from these predetermined touch-points where they are finding mailed credit offers antiquated, spending even less time at a retail point of sale versus preferring to shop online and exchanging personal computers for tablets and smartphones. Despite remaining under 6 percent of retail spending, e-commerce sales for Q2 2013 have reportedly been up 18.5 percent from Q2 2012, representing the largest year-over-year increase since Q4 2007, before the 2008 financial crisis. Fueled by a shift from personal computers to connected devices and a continuing growth in maturity of e-commerce and m-commerce platforms, this trend is only expected to grow stronger in the future. To reflect this shift, marketers need to be asking themselves how they should apportion their budgets and energies to digital while executing broader marketing strategies that also may include traditional channels. Generally, traditional card acquisitions methods have failed to respond to these behavioral shifts, and, as a whole, retail banking was unprepared to handle the disintermediation of traditional products in favor of the convenience mobile offers. Now that the world of banking is finding its feet in the mobile space, accessibility to credit must also adapt to be on the customer’s terms, unencumbered by historical notions around customer and credit risk. Download this white paper to learn how credit and retail private-label issuers can provide an optimal customer experience in emerging channels such as mobile without sacrificing risk mitigation strategies — leading to increased conversions and satisfied customers.  It will demonstrate strategies employed by credit and retail private-label issuers who already have made the shift from paper and point of sale to digital, and it provides recommendations that can be used as a business case and/or a road map.  

Credit unions were the only type of lender to have their 30 day plus delinquency rate fall below 2 percent for several key product categories. The table below provides the delinquency rate by lender and product. 30 day plus delinquency rate Q2 2013   Auto* Mortgage Bankcard Credit unions 1.52% 1.36% 1.99% Banks 2.01% 4.91% 2.73% Captive auto 2.40% N/A N/A Sign up to attend our upcoming Webinar on Q3 credit trends and take a closer look at the impact of consumer behavior on the economic recovery. Source : Data for this article was sourced from IntelliViewSM, a Web-based data query, analysis and reporting tool. *Auto delinquency rate includes automotive loans and leases.