the amount of time it’s taking for automotive loans opened in Q4 2015 to become delinquent is actually similar to the pace in 2008.

2017 is expected to bring some big changes. But what do those changes mean for the financial services space? Here are 3 trends and twists Experian expects to occur over the next 12 months:

Which part of the country has bragging rights when it comes to sporting the best consumer credit scores? Drum roll please … Honors go to the Midwest. In fact, eight of the 10 cities with the highest consumer credit scores heralded from Minnesota and Wisconsin. Mankato, Minn., earned the highest ranking with an average credit score of 708 and Greenwood, Miss., placed last with an average credit score of 622. Even better news is that the nation’s average credit score is up four points; 669 to 673 from last year and is only six points away from the 2007 average of 679, which is a promising sign as the economy continues to rebound. Experian’s annual study ranks American cities by credit score and reveals which cities are the best and worst at managing their credit, along with a glimpse at how the nation and each generation is faring. “All credit indicators suggest consumers are not as ‘credit stressed’ — credit card balances and average debt are up while utilization rates remained consistent at 30 percent,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of analytics and new business development at Experian. As for the generational victors, the Silents have an average 730, Boomers come in with 700, Gen X with 655 and Gen Y with 634. We’re also starting to see Gen Z emerge for the first time in the credit ranks with an average score of 631. Couple this news with other favorable economic indicators and it appears the country is humming along in a positive direction. The stock market reached record highs post-election. Bankcard originations and balances continue to grow, dominated by the prime borrower. And the housing market is healthy with boomerang borrowers re-emerging. An estimated 2.5 million Americans will see a foreclosure fall of their credit report between June 2016 and June 2017, creating a new pool of potential buyers with improved credit profiles. More than 12 percent who foreclosed back in the Great Recession have already boomeranged to become homeowners again, while 29 percent who experienced a short sale during that same time have also recently taken on a mortgage. “We are seeing the positive effects of economic recovery with the rise in income and low unemployment reflected in how Americans are managing their credit,” said Raneri. Which means all is good in the world of credit. Of course there is always room for improvement, but this year’s 7th annual state of credit reveals there is much to be thankful for in 2016.

For members of the U.S. military, relocating often, returning home following a lengthy deployment and living with uncertainty isn’t easy. It can take an emotional and financial toll, and many are unprepared for their economic reality after they separate from the military. As we honor those who have served our country this Veterans Day, we are highlighting some of the special financial benefits and safeguards available to help veterans. Housing Help One of the best benefits offered to service members is the Veteran’s Administration (VA) home-loan program. Loan rates are competitive, and the VA guarantees up to 25 percent of the payment on the loan, making it one of the only ways available to buy a home with no down payment and no private mortgage insurance. Debt Relief Having a VA loan qualifies military members for a Military Debt Consolidation Loan (MDCL) that can help with overcoming financial difficulties. The MDCL is similar to a debt consolidation loan: take out one loan to pay off all unsecured debts, such as credit cards, medical bills and payday loans, and make a single payment to one lender. The advantage of a MDCL? Paying a lower interest rate and closing costs than civilians and far less interest than paying the same bills with credit cards. These refinancing loans can be spread out over 10, 15 and sometimes 30 years. Education Benefits The GI Bill is arguably the best benefit for veterans and members of the armed forces. It helps service members pay for higher education for themselves and their dependents, and is one of the top reasons people enlist. Eligible service members receive up to 36 months of education benefits, based on the type of training, length of service, college fund availability and whether he or she contributed to a buy-up program while on active duty. Benefits last up to 10 years, but the time limit may be extended. Saving & Investing Money According to the Department of Defense’s annual Demographics Report, 87 percent of military families contribute to a retirement account. Service members who participated in the Thrift Savings Plan, however, are often unaware of their options after they separate from service, and many don’t realize the advantages of rolling their plans into an IRA or retirement plan of a new employer. Safeguarding Identity Everyone is a potential identity theft target, but military personnel and veterans are particularly vulnerable. Routinely reviewing a credit report is one way to detect a breach. The Attorney General's Office provides general information about what steps to take to recover from identify theft or fraud. Today is a great time to consider ways to support your veteran and active military consumers. They are deserving of our support and recognition not just today but continuously. Learn more about services for veterans and active military to understand the varying protections, and how financial institutions can best support military credit consumers and their families.

Will they still aspire to achieve the “American Dream” of education, homeownership and raising a family? Are Millennials ready for a mortgage?

Millennials are coming of age and experiencing big life moments — college graduation, their first job, getting married and moving out.

With HELOC end of draw peaking, lenders must consider best practices and actions to take to manage and optimize their portfolios.

With a wave of HELOCs reaching the end-of-draw period, lenders are anxious to see how this will impact their portfolio. A new Experian study reveals likely consumer behaviors.

Time heals countless things, including credit scores. Many of the seven million people who saw their VantageScore® credit scores drop to sub-prime levels after suffering a foreclosure or short sale during the Great Recession have recovered and are back in the housing market. These Boomerang Buyers — people who foreclosed or short sold between 2007 and 2014 and have opened a new mortgage — will be an important segment of the real estate market in the coming years. According to Experian data, through June 2016 roughly 800,000 people had boomeranged, with Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Sacramento housing the most buyers. Some analysts believe more than three million Americans will become eligible for a home over the next three years. Are potential Boomerang Buyers a great opportunity to boost market share or a high risk for a portfolio? Early trends are positive. The majority of Boomerang Buyers who opened mortgages between 2011 and June 2016 are current on their debts. An Experian study revealed more than 29 percent of those who short sold have boomeranged, and just 1.5 percent are delinquent on their mortgage —falling below the national average of 2.8 percent. This group is also ahead of or even with the national average for delinquency on auto loans (1.2 percent vs. the national average of 2.2 percent), bankcards (3 percent vs. 4.3 percent) and retail (even at 2.7 percent). For those Boomerang Buyers who had foreclosed, the numbers are also strong. More than 12 percent have boomeranged, with just 3 percent delinquent on their mortgage. They also match or are below national average delinquency rates on auto loans (1.9 percent) and bankcards (4.1 percent), and have a slightly higher delinquency rate for retail (3.5 percent). Due to their positive credit behaviors, Boomerang Buyers also have higher VantageScore® credit scores than before. On average, the overall non-boomerang group’s credit score sunk during a foreclosure but went up 10 percent higher than before the foreclosure, and Boomerang Buyers rose by nearly 14 percent. For people who previously had a prime credit score, their number dropped by nearly 5 percent, while those who boomeranged returned to the score they had prior to the foreclosure. By comparison, the overall non-boomerang and boomerang group saw their credit score drop during a short sale and increase more than 11 percent from before the short sale. For people who previously had prime credit, they dropped 2 percent while those who boomeranged were almost flat to where they were before the short sale. Another part of the equation is the stabilized housing market and relatively low loan-to-value (LTV) limits that lenders have maintained. In the past, borrowers most often strategically defaulted on their mortgages when their LTV ratios were well over 100 percent. So as long as lenders maintain relatively low LTV limits and the housing market remains strong, strategic default is unlikely to re-emerge as a risk.

Recent survey by Experian revealed opportunities for businesses to build relationships with future homebuyers before they’re ready to obtain a loan.

With the summer home-buying season underway, borrowers and lenders alike can benefit from tools to speed up the loan and escrow process.

HELOC originations benefit from the real-estate recovery and consumer desire to tap into available equity

James W. Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist for Wells Capital Management, kicked off the second day of Experian’s Vision 2016, sharing his perspective on the state of the economy and what the future holds for consumers and businesses alike. Paulsen joked this has been “the most successful, disappointing recovery we’ve ever had.” While media and lenders project fear for a coming recession, Paulsen stated it is important to note we are in the 8th year of recovery in the U.S., the third longest in U.S. history, with all signs pointing to this recovery extending for years to come. Based on his indicators – leverage, restored household strength, housing, capital spending and better global growth – there is still capacity to grow. He places recession risk at 20 to 25 percent – and only quotes those numbers due the length of the recovery thus far. “What is the fascination with crisis policies when there is no crisis,” asks Paulsen. “I think we have a good chance of being in the longest recovery in U.S. history.” Other noteworthy topics of the day: Fraud prevention Fraud prevention continues to be a hot topic at this year’s conference. Whether it’s looking at current fraud challenges, such as call-center fraud, or looking to future-proof an organization’s fraud prevention techniques, the need for flexible and innovative strategies is clear. With fraudsters being quick, and regularly ahead of the technology fighting them, the need to easily implement new tools is fundamental for you to protect your businesses and customers. More on Regulatory The Military Lending Act has been enhanced over the past year to strengthen protections for military consumers, and lenders must be ready to meet updated regulations by fall 2016. With 1.46 million active personnel in the U.S., all lenders are working to update processes and documentation associated with how they serve this audience. Alternative Data What is it? How can it be used? And most importantly, can this data predict a consumer’s credit worthiness? Experian is an advocate for getting more entities to report different types of credit data including utility payments, mobile phone data, rental payments and cable payments. Additionally, alternative data can be sourced from prepaid data, liquid assets, full file public records, DDA data, bill payment, check cashing, education data, payroll data and subscription data. Collectively, lenders desire to assess someone’s stability, ability to pay and willingness to repay. If alternative data can answer those questions, it should be considered in order to score more of the U.S. population. Financial Health The Center for Financial Services Innovation revealed insights into the state of American’s financial health. According to a study they conducted, 57 percent of Americans are not financially healthy, which equates to about 138 million people. As they continue to place more metrics around defining financial health, the center has landed on four components: how people plan, spend, save and borrow. And if you think income is a primary factor, think again. One-third of Americans making more than $60k a year are not healthy, while one-third making less than $60k a year are healthy. --- Final Vision 2016 breakouts, as well as a keynote from entertainer Jay Leno, will be delivered on Wednesday.

It’s impossible to capture all of the insights and learnings of 36 breakout sessions and several keynote addresses in one post, but let’s summarize a few of the highlights from the first day of Vision 2016. 1. Who better to speak about the state of our country, specifically some of the threats we are facing than Leon Panetta, former Secretary of Defense and Director of the CIA. While we are at a critical crossroads in the United States, there is room for optimism and his hope that we can be an America in Renaissance. 2. Alex Lintner, Experian President of Consumer Information Services, conveyed how the consumer world has evolved, in large part due to technology: 67 percent of consumers made purchases across multiple channels in the last six months. More than 88M U.S. consumers use their smartphone to do some form of banking. 68 percent of Millennials believe within five years the way we access money will be totally different. 3. Peter Renton of Lend Academy spoke on the future of Online Marketplace Lending, revealing: Banks are recognizing that this industry provides them with a great opportunity and many are partnering with Online Marketplace Lenders to enter the space. Millennials are not the largest consumers in this space today, but they will be in the future. Sustained growth will be key for this industry. The largest platforms have everything they need in place to endure – even through an economic downturn.In other words, Online Marketplace Lenders are here to stay. 4. Tom King, Experian’s Chief Information Security Officer, addressed the crowds on how the world of information security is growing increasingly complex. There are 1.9 million records compromised every day, and sadly that number is expected to rise. What can businesses do?  “We need to make it easier to make the bad guys go somewhere else,” says King. 5. Look at how the housing market has changed from just a few years ago: Inventory continues to be extraordinarily lean. Why? New home building continues to run at recession levels. And, 8.5 percent of homeowners are still underwater on their mortgage, preventing them from placing it on the market. In the world of single-family home originations, 2016 projections show that there will be more purchases, less refinancing and less volume. We may see further growth in HELOC’s. With a dwindling number of mortgages benefiting from refinancing, and with rising interest rates, a HELOC may potentially be the cheapest and easiest way to tap equity. 6. As organizations balance business needs with increasing fraud threats, the important thing to remember is that the customer experience will trump everything else. Top fraud threats in 2015 included: Card Not Present (CNP) First Party Fraud/Synthetic ID Application Fraud Mobile Payment/Deposit Fraud Cross-Channel FraudSo what do the experts believe is essential to fraud prevention in the future? Big Data with smart analytics. 7. The need for Identity Relationship Management can be seen by the dichotomy of “99 percent of companies think having a clear picture of their customers is important for their business; yet only 24 percent actually think they achieve this ideal.” Connecting identities throughout the customer lifecycle is critical to bridging this gap. 8. New technologies continue to bring new challenges to fraud prevention. We’ve seen that post-EMV fraud is moving “upstream” as fraudsters: Apply for new credit cards using stolen ID’s. Provision stolen cards into mobile wallet. Gain access to accounts to make purchases.Then, fraudsters are open to use these new cards everywhere. 9. Several speakers addressed the ever-changing regulatory environment. The Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) litigation is up 30 percent since the last year. Regulators are increasingly taking notice of Online Marketplace Lenders. It’s critical to consider regulatory requirements when building risk models and implementing business policies. 10. Hispanics and Millennials are a force to be reckoned with, so pay attention: Millennials will be 81 million strong by 2036, and Hispanics are projected to be 133 million strong by 2050. Significant factors for home purchase likelihood for both groups include VantageScore® credit score, age, student debt, credit card debt, auto loans, income, marital status and housing prices. More great insights from Vision coming your way tomorrow!          

Large number of HELOC loans will soon be entering their HELOC end of draw period, giving lenders an opportunity for new finance options