Financial Services

By: Mike Horrocks The other day in the American Banker, there was an article titled “Is Loan Growth a Bad Idea Right Now?”, which brings up some great questions on how banks should be looking at their C&I portfolios (or frankly any section of the overall portfolio). I have to admit I was a little down on the industry, for thinking the only way we can grow is by cutting rates or maybe making bad loans.  This downer moment required that I hit my playlist shuffle and like an oracle from the past, The Clash and their hit song “Should I stay or should I go”, gave me Sage-like insights that need to be shared. First, who are you listening to for advice?  While I would not recommend having all the members of The Clash on your board of directors, could you have maybe one.  Ask yourself  are your boards, executive management teams, loan committees, etc., all composed of the same people, with maybe the only difference being iPhone versus Android??  Get some alternative thinking in the mix.  There is tons of research to show this works. Second, set you standards and stick to them.  In the song, there is a part where we have a bit of a discussion that goes like this.  “This indecision's buggin' me,  If you don't want me, set me free.  Exactly whom I'm supposed to be, Don't you know which clothes even fit me?”  Set your standards and just go after them.  There should be no doubt if you are going to do a certain kind of loan or not based on the pricing.  Know your pricing, know your limits, and dominate that market. Lastly, remember business cycles.  I am hopeful and optimistic that we will have some good growth here for a while, but there is always a down turn…always.  Again from the lyrics – “If I go there will be trouble, An' if I stay it will be double”  In the American Banker article, M&T Bank CFO Rene Jones called out that an unnamed competitor made a 10-year fixed $30 million dollar loan at a rate that they (M&T) just could not match.  So congrats to M&T for recognizing the pricing limits and maybe congrats to the unnamed bank for maybe having some competitive advantage that allowed them to make the loan.  However if there is not something like that supporting the other bank…the short term pain of explaining slower growth today may seem like nothing compared to the questioning they will get if that portfolio goes south. So in the end, I say grow – soundly.  Shake things up so you open new markets or create advantages in your current market and rock the Casbah!

Source:  IntelliViewsm powered by Experian Sales of existing homes dropped 50% from the peak in August 2005 to the low point in July 2010.  The spike in home sales in late 2009 and early 2010 was due to the large number of foreclosure sales as well as very low prices.  Since 2010, sales have increased to almost to the level they were in 2000, before the financial crisis. However, the homeownership rate has steadily gone down.  How could sales have picked up while the homeownership rate declined?  Investors have entered the market snapping up single family homes and renting them.  Therefore, the recent good news in the existing home market has been driven by investors, not homeowners.  But as I point out below, this is changing. Looking at the homeownership rate by age, shown in the table below, it is clear that since the crisis the rate has declined most for people under 45.  The potential for marketing is greatest in this cohort as the numbers indicate a likely demand for housing. Homeownership Rate by Age Source:  U.S. Census Bureau and Haver Analytics as reported on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fred database The factors that have impeded growth, described above, are beginning to reverse which, along with pent-up demand, will present an opportunity for mortgage originators in 2015. Home prices have risen in 246 of the 277 cities tracked by Clear Capital.With prices going up, investors have begun to back away from the market, resulting in prices increasing at a slower rate in some cities but they are still increasing.Therefore the perception that homeownership is risky will likely change.In fact, in some areas, such as California’s coastal cities, sales are strong and prices are going up rapidly. Lenders and regulators are recognizing that the stringent guidelines put in place in reaction to the crisis have overly constrained the market.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are reducing down payment requirements to as low as 3%.FHA is lowering their guarantee fee, reducing the amount of cash buyers need to close transactions.Private securitizations, which dried up completely, are beginning to reappear, especially in the jumbo market. As unemployment continues to go down, consumer confidence will rise and household formation will return to more normal levels which result in more sales to first time homebuyers, who drive the market.According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, “…it’s all about consistent job growth for a prolonged period, and we’re entering that stage.” The number of houses in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, has fallen to pre-crisis levels.This drag on the market has, for the most part, cleared and as prices continue to inflate, potential buyers will be motivated to buy before homes become unaffordable.Despite the recent increases, home prices are still, on average, 23% lower than they were at the peak. Focusing marketing dollars on those people with the highest propensity to buy has always been a challenge but in this market there are identifiable targets. “Boomerangs” are people who owned real estate in the past but are currently renting and likely to come back into the market.Marketing to qualified former homeowners would provide a solid return on investment. People renting single family houses are indicating a lifestyle preference that can be marketed to. Newly-formed households are also profitable targets. The housing market, at long last, appears to be finally turning the corner and normalizing.  Experian’s expertise in identifying the right consumers can help lenders to pinpoint the right people on whom marketing dollars should be invested to realize the highest level of return. Click here to learn more.

End-of-draw approaching for many home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) originated during the U.S. housing boom period of 2006 – 2008

By: Linda Haran Complying with complex and evolving capital adequacy regulatory requirements is the new reality for financial service organizations, and it doesn’t seem to be getting any easier to comply in the years since CCAR was introduced under the Dodd Frank Act.  Many banks that have submitted capital plans to the Fed have seen them approved in one year and then rejected in the following year’s review, making compliance with the regulation feel very much like a moving target.  As a result, several banks have recently pulled together a think tank of sorts to collaborate on what the Fed is looking for in capital plan submissions. Complying with CCAR is a very complex, data intensive exercise which requires specialized staffing.   An approach or methodology to preparing these annual submissions has not been formally outlined by the regulators and banks are on their own to interpret the complex requirements into a comprehensive plan that will ensure their capital plans are accepted by the Fed.  As banks work to perfect the methodology used in this exercise, the Fed continues to fine tune the requirements by changing submission dates, Tier 1 capital definitions, etc. As the regulation continues to evolve, banks will need to keep pace with the changing nature of the requirements and continually evaluate current processes to assess where they can be enhanced.  The capital planning exercise remains complex and employing various methodologies to produce the most complete view of loss projections prior to submitting a final plan to the Fed is a crucial component in having the plan approved.  Banks should utilize all available resources and consider partnering with third party organizations who are experienced in both loss forecasting model development and regulatory consulting in order to stay ahead of the regulations and avoid a scenario where capital plan submissions may not be accepted. Learn how Experian can help you meet the latest regulatory requirements with our Loss Forecasting Model Services.

Do you really know where your commercial and small business clients stand financially?  I bet if you ask your commercial lending relationship managers they will say they do -  but do they really?  The bigger question is how you could be more tied into to your business clients so that you could give them real advice that may save their businesses. More questions?? Nope, just one answer. Finagraph with Experian’s Advisor for relationship lending is a perfect setup to gather data that you currently are using within your financial institution that can then be matched that up with real financial spreads from the accounting systems that your business client use in their everyday process.  By comparing the two sources of records you can get a true perspective on where your business clients stands and empower your relationship managers like ever before.

Apple Pay fraud solution Apple Pay is here and so are increased fraud exposures, confirmed losses, and customer experience challenges among card issuers. The exposure associated with the provisioning of credit and debit cards to the Apple Pay application was in time expected as fraudsters are the first group to find weaknesses. Evidence from issuers and analyst reports points to fraud as the result of established credit/debit cards compromised through data breaches or other means that are being enrolled into Apple Pay accounts – and being used to make large value purchases at large merchants. Keir Breitenfeld, our vice president of Fraud and Identity solutions said as much in a recent PYMNTS.com story where he was quoted about whether the Apple Watch will help grown Apple Pay.    The challenge is that card issuers have no real controls over the provisioning or enrollment process so they currently only have an opportunity to authenticate their cardholder, but not the provisioning device. Fraud exposure can lie within call centers and online existing customer treatment channels due to: Identity theft and account takeover based on breach activity. Use of counterfeit or breached card data. Call center authentication process inadequacies. Capacity and customer experience pressures driving human error or subjectively lax due diligence. Existing customer/account authentication practices not tuned to this emerging scheme and level of risk. The good news is that positive improvements have been proven with bolstering risk-based authentication at the card provisioning process points by comparing the inbound provisioning device to the device that is on file for the cardholder account. This, in combination with traditional identity risk analytics, verifications, knowledge-based authentication, and holistic decisioning policies vastly improve the view afforded to card issuers for layered process point decisioning. Learn more on why emerging channels, like mobile payments,  call for advanced fraud identification techniques.

The follow blog is by Kyle Enger, Executive Vice President of Finagraph With the surge of alternative lenders, competition among banks is stronger than ever. But what exactly does that mean for the everyday banker? It means business owners want more. If you’re only meeting your clients once a year on a renewal, it’s not good enough. In order to take your customer service to the next level, you need to become a trusted advisor. Someone who understands where your clients are going and how to help them get there. If you’re not investing in your clients’ business by taking the following actions, they may have one foot out the door. 1.       Understand your clients’ business One of the biggest complaints from business owners is that bankers simply don’t understand their business. A good commercial banker should be well-versed in their borrower’s company, competitors and the industry. They should be willing to get to know their business, commit to them, stop by to check-in and provide a proactive plan to avoid future risks.  2.       Utilize technology for your benefit The majority of recent bank innovations have been used to make the customer experience more convenient, but not necessarily the more helpful. We’ve seen everything from mobile remote deposit capture to online banking to mobile payments – all of which are keeping customers from interacting with the bank. Contrary to what many think, technology can be used to create strong relationships by giving bankers information about their customers to help serve them better. Using new software programs, bankers can see information like the current ratio, quick ratio, debt-to-equity, gross margin, net margin and ROI within seconds. 3.       Heighten financial acumen Banks have access to a vast amount of customer financial data, but sometimes fail to use this information to its full potential. With insight into consumer purchasing behavior and business’ financial history, banks should be able to cater products and services to clients in a personalized manner. However, many lenders walk into prospect meetings without knowing much about the business. Their mode of operation is solely focused on trying to secure new clients by building rapport – they are what we call surface bankers. A good banker will educate clients on what they need to know such as equity, inventory, cash flow, retirement planning and sweep accounting. They should also know about new technology and consult borrowers on intermediate financing, terming out loans that are not revolving, or locking in with low interest rates. Following, they will bring in the right specialist to match the product according to their clients’ needs.  4.       Go beyond the price Many business owners make the mistake of comparing banks based on cost, but the value of a healthy banking relationship and a financial guide is priceless. So many bankers these days are application gatherers working on a transactional basis, but that’s not what business owners need. They need to stop looking at the short-term convenience of brands, price and location, and start considering the long-term effects a trusted financial advisor can make on their business. 5.       A partner in your business, not a banker “Sixty percent of businesses are misfinanced using short-term money for long-term use,” according to the CEB Business Banking Board. In other words, there are many qualified candidates in need of a trusting banker to help them succeed. Unbeknownst to many business owners, bankers actually want to make loans and help their clients’ business grow. Making this known is the baseline in building a strong foundation for the future of your career. Just remember to ask yourself – am I being business-centric or bank-centric? To view the original blog posting, click here. To read more about the collaboration between Experian and Finagraph, click here.    

By: Mike Horrocks Experian has announced a new agreement with Finagraph, a best-in-class automated financial intelligence tool provider, to provide the banking industry with software to evaluate small business financials faster. Loan automation is key in pulling together data in a meaningful manner and this bank offering will provide consistent formatted financials for easier lending assessment. Finagraph’s automated financial intelligence tool delivers advanced analytics and data verification that presents small business financial information in a consistent format, making it easier for lenders to understand the commercial customer’s business. Experian’s portfolio risk management platform addresses the overall risks and opportunities within a loan portfolio. The company’s relationship lending platform provides a framework to automate, integrate and streamline commercial lending processes, including small and medium-sized enterprise and commercial lending. Both data-driven systems are designed to accommodate and integrate existing bank processes saving time which results in improved client engagement “Finagraph connects bankers and businesses in a data-driven way that leads to better insights that strengthens customer relationships,” said John Watts, Experian Decision Analytics director of product management. “Together we are helping our banking clients deliver the trusted advisor experience their business customers desire in a new industry-leading way.” “The lending landscape is rapidly changing.  With new competitors entering the space, banks need innovative tools that allow them to maintain an advantage,” said James Walter, CEO and President of Finagraph. “We are excited about the way that our collaboration with Experian’s Baker Hill Advisor gives banks an edge by enabling them to connect with their clients in a meaningful way. Together we are hoping to empower a new generation of trusted advisors.” Learn more about our portfolio risk management and lending solutions and for more information on Finagraph please visit www.finagraph.com.

Regulations helping ensure deposit accounts for everyone

By: Scott Rhode   This is the third and last of a three-part blog series focused on the residential solar market looking at; 1) the history of solar technology, 2) current trends and financing mechanisms, and finally 3) overcoming market and regulatory challenges with Experian’s help. As we’ve discussed in the two previous blogs, the residential solar industry in the US has experienced tremendous growth and much of that growth is attributed to financing.  As the financing offers continue to evolve and mature, there are challenges that the industry faces. The first, and most obvious challenge, is that the Solar Investment Tax Credit is set to expire on December 31st, 2016. (To be clear, the credit is not eliminated on Dec. 31, 2016, it is simply planned to be reduced to 10%) Given the state of affairs in Washington, it is unlikely that the tax credit will get extended.  This is unfortunate since this tax credit has been a catalyst for investment in this industry, greatly increasing affordability and adoption from the public.  Once this incentive expires, the solar companies will need to acquire capital from more traditional sources (Debt markets, securitization, or other third party financing) to fund their growth since the Tax Equity community may no longer be willing to invest. In addition, the expiration of the credit means that panel manufactures must find ways to reduce the cost of production and that finance and installation companies must lower their customer acquisition cost since they are unsustainable in a post-ITC world. A benefit of moving towards other means of funding is that the sophistication level of pre-screening, scoring, and portfolio management should improve dramatically.  Today, the Tax Equity community drives all of the credit strategies and those strategies are actually holding solar companies back because of their simplicity.  For example, most of the TE investors require that the customer have a 680 FICO score or better in order to get approval.  They do not require a debt to income threshold to be met, nor do they look at other attributes or data points.  This overly simplistic approach is meant to keep the TE investor out of difficult conversations of being in the “sub-prime” space; however, it greatly limits growth and it turns away good customers. Additionally, this approach does not consider the “essential use” nature of the product.  When a customer becomes seriously delinquent, their panels get disconnected and their costs for energy go up more than the cost of their monthly lease payment.  This ensures that, unlike an unsecured loan or credit card, the customer is more likely to pay this obligation since it is actually saving them money.  This does not mean that the industry can approve everyone; however, it does mean that, with the right decisioning logic and scorecards, they can go much deeper into the credit pool without taking on huge risks. Another challenge for the industry is the shear rate of growth.  There are new players in the market every day and even established firms have a hard time keeping up with the growth.  This leaves the individual organization and industry at risk for missing critical compliance steps in their operations.  Given that these financial instruments are long term in nature and more consumers are adopting this as a means to get solar, it is only a matter of time before the regulators start to look into the practices and operating processes to ensure that all of the applicable regulations are being followed.  The industry, as a whole, needs to ensure that they spend a little money now shoring up their compliance instead of paying a hefty fine later. Finally, what happens at the end of the lease?  Many of the large players have taken a conservative approach as to how they price the residual amount at the end of term; however, no one really knows what these assets will be worth in 20 years.  While many of the panel manufacturers warrant performance for 25, many panels have a shelf-life of 40 years, so how will consumers and the industry behave?  What happens if there is a technological breakthrough in 10 years and those old panels are obsolete?  At the moment, the industry’s answer to these questions is to set a very low residual which carries risk.  Being too conservative here means that your customer’s payment is higher than it needs to be, pricing yourself out of certain markets where the cost of power is less than 20 cents / kwh. As the lease product continues to mature, more focus and emphasis on residual pricing will need to take place to find the right balance for the Consumer and the finance company. It should be said that while there are risks associated with this industry, all markets and new financing products carry risks.  The goal of this particular blog is to highlight some of the larger risks that this industry faces.  As these are identified, it is incumbent on the industry and partners of the industry to mitigate these risks so that consumers can continue to realize the power of solar. To close this series, I would be remiss if I didn’t offer up Experian’s Global Consultancy solutions to help address the challenges that the industry faces.  Our knowledge of best practices in the financial services industry allows us to help those companies in the solar market grow originations responsibly, meet their regulatory requirements, and manage their long term risks with customers.  While we cannot solve the funding issues, we can work with organizations and the tax equity community to educate them on the power of decisioning beyond a simple “one-size fits all” score.  In addition, our products and data allow for flexibility and certainty, giving the industry an edge in acquiring new customers in a more efficient and less expensive manner.  Finally, we can help provide advice and best practices in decisioning, risk management, and regulatory compliance so that the industry can continue to grow and thrive.  All in all, we are advocates for the industry and can bring tremendous expertise and experience to help ensure continued success.   Solar Financing – The current and future catalyst behind the booming residential solar market (Part II) Solar Financing — The current and future catalyst behind the booming residential solar market (Part I)

The experience of being a victim of data breaches has created a shift in consumer behavior and attitude over the past year. A recent Ponemon Institute study found that more than one-third of consumers ignored data breach notification letters, taking no action to protect themselves against fraud. To combat data breach fatigue, companies should communicate with customers sincerely and avoid treating the notification process as a compliance issue. Notification letters should include an apology, a clear explanation of what happened and why, and steps consumers can take to protect themselves from fraud. 2015 Data Breach Industry Forecast

While marketers typically spend vast amounts of money to increase customer acquisitions, fraud prevention can undercut those efforts. According to a recent 41st Parameter® study, average card-not-present declines represent 15 percent of all transactions; however, one to three percent of those declined transactions turn out to be false positives, equating to 1.2 billion dollars in lost revenue annually. Marketers can avoid unnecessary declines and create a seamless customer experience by communicating campaign plans to the fraud-risk team early on and coordinating marketing and fraud-prevention efforts. Download Experian’s latest fraud prevention report. Report: Holiday Marketing & Fraud

Identity verification techniques have been evolving over the past few years to meet business priorities beyond fraud prevention

By: Scott Rhode   This is the second of a three-part blog series focused on the residential solar market looking at; 1) the history of solar technology, 2) current trends and financing mechanisms, and finally 3) overcoming market and regulatory challenges with Experian’s help. Lets discuss the current trends in solar and, more importantly, the mechanisms used to finance solar in the US residential market.  As I discussed in the last blog, the growth in this space has been astronomical.  To illustrate this growth, there was a recent article in The Washington Post by Matt McFarland, highlighting that solar-related jobs are significantly outpacing the rest of labor market in terms of year over year growth.  The article states that since 2010 the number of solar-related jobs has doubled in the US, bring the total number of jobs in this industry to 173,807.  While this is still smaller in comparison to other sectors of our economy, it underscores how much growth has occurred in a short amount of time. So what is driving this explosive growth?  There are a few factors that should be considered; however, in the residential solar market, financing, is the main catalyst.  As you might expect, there are a variety of financial products in the market giving the consumer lots of choices. First, there are traditional loans like home improvement loans, home equity loans, or energy efficiency loans offered by a bank, credit union, or specialty finance company.  For homeowners that do not choose to secure their loan against their property, there are a variety of specialty lenders that will offer long-term, unsecured loans that only file a UCC against the panels themselves.  For these types of offerings, some specialty lenders will even have special credit plans for the 30% Solar Investment Tax Credit so that the homeowner can have a deferred interest plan with the expectation that once they get the tax credit from the federal government, they will pay off the special plan and all of the deferred interest will be waived.  If the customer does not pay in full, the plan rolls to their regular loan plan and the customer has a higher cost of financing. Second, there is a lease product which offers zero to little down and a monthly payment that is less than the savings that the homeowner will experience on their utility bill.  Of all the financing options, the lease has been the biggest driver of growth since it offers an inexpensive, no-hassle way to get all the benefits of going solar without breaking the bank.  What is unusual to most people that are unfamiliar with this concept is the term of the lease, which is typically 20 years.  However, when you consider that most manufacturers warrant their panels for 25 and many have a usable life of 40 years, this term does not seem all that unusual.  The benefits of this program look something like this: The homeowner has an average electric utility bill of $350 / month A solar company quotes a customer a savings of $200 / month in the form of a net metering energy credit, so their bill after solar is now $150 / month The lease payment for the installed solar array, metering equipment, and monitoring software is $150 / month The homeowner’s net saving is an average of $50 / month with nothing out of pocket Over the life of the lease, energy prices will increase which will mean more savings over time so long as there are not escalators in the contract that exceed the increase in energy prices The lessor “owns” the equipment and is responsible for maintenance, performance, and insurance With this product comes complexity.  Many companies offering this program do not have the cash or the appetite to take on massive debt, so they partner with Tax Equity investors to make this transaction possible.  Because of the 30% ITC and accelerated depreciation, this transaction is very favorable for a Tax Equity investor like Google, US Bank, or Bank of America Merrill Lynch.  There are a number of structures they can use; however, the Sale-Leaseback structure is the easiest and most efficient way to fund the transaction.  While this is not “known” to the end customer, it is important because the Tax Equity Investor effectively owns the asset and has the final say in setting credit policy.  This transaction does require that the developer have a stake as well; however, many of the developers go to the debt market for “back leverage” on their stake so that they can reduce the impact to their balance sheet. This complexity carries a cost, as the cost of capital is higher than most traditional loan products from established financial services firms.  That said, the fact that the lease allows the customer to monetize the tax credit and accelerated depreciation in the amount financed, balances out the higher costs of capital.  In the next blog we will touch more on the challenges this product, in particular, has in the market. Last, but not least, there is another mechanism gaining popularity in the market.  This concept is known as community solar.  One of the obstacles of the lease and Tax Equity arrangement is that the lease is only available to single family residence homeowners and, if they have multiple homes, only the homeowner’s primary residence.  That means that people who rent, own a condo, own a vacation home, or own a small business do not qualify for this type of lease.  As a result, community solar has become a great option. With community solar, the panels are put in an ideal location for maximum exposure to the sun and they often produce 10-15% more power than panels on a rooftop.  Portions of this solar farm can be sold, rented, or sublet to consumers regardless of their living situation.  As the panels produce electricity, that power gets sold to the local utility and the customer gets money from that utility that shows up as a credit on their next bill.  In this structure, the customer is not required to put money down in most cases and they are signing up for a specific term. Like a rooftop lease, this structure often has a Tax Equity investor that funds the project.  Again, this allows them to take the 30% ITC and accelerated depreciation which, in turn, gets monetized and lowers the costs of construction. In the final installment of this blog series, I will discuss some of the challenges that this market faces as the ITC expiration date approaches and the market becomes more mature. Leasing is driving the market, so if the ITC does not get renewed, the market will need to have a plan in place to find other innovative ways to keep solar affordable so more consumers can realize the benefits of going solar.   Solar Financing — The current and future catalyst behind the booming residential solar market (Part 1)

Understanding the importance of customer experience to business strategy and performance