The Beyond The Trends Report - Fall 2021 Out Now!   Did you know that there are about a million restaurants in the U.S? And those restaurants employ nine million people?  As we prepared the latest Beyond the Trends report for Fall 2021, I took a deep dive into the restaurant industry in our small business data set to explore how restaurants were performing through the pandemic and how resilient they are now. Here's a quick snippet — the SBA's Restaurant Revitalization fund delivered 74,498 grants accounting for $22.4B in funds for May through June of 2021. It's a shot in the arm for restaurants. Here's how the funds were distributed based on annual sales. Distribution of Restaurants by Annual Sales Size source: SBA, Experian The RRF program has done well servicing a diverse set of applicants and underserved community segments. The Women-owned businesses made up almost half of the recipients Veteran-owned businesses were only 5% of the program. Veterans received fewer loans overall but had much higher average loan amounts awarded Restaurants in LMI designated areas were over a quarter of the program Restaurants in lower socioeconomic areas were over a third of the program's recipients Would you like to learn about this and other trends impacting small business? Download the Fall 2021 Beyond The Trends Report! Download the Latest Report

  Gain the ability to identify the most stable and profitable small business clients Join our webinar, in partnership with the Small Business Financial Exchange (SBFE): Disruptive Strategies to Empower Small Business Lending Tuesday, September 21, 2021, 10:00 a.m. PDT | 1:00 p.m. EDT Learn how to target small business growth opportunities and enhance the customer experience through automated credit-risk decisioning, with special focus on: Advanced methodologies for developing and leveraging new data attributes Advantages to having explainable, machine-learned models Effortless data visualization to conceptualize growth opportunities Ability to target populations and product mix for financial inclusion Register for Webinar

Subscribe To Our YouTube Channel [Gary]: I'm joined by Yvon Desieux, a Senior Director in our product team, and Yvon is responsible for product strategy and driving innovation in lending through the creation of products and applications for commercial lenders.  Sitting next to Yvon is Mike Myers, our Vice President of Product Management here in Business Information, and he leads the product team and AgileWorks Innovation Lab. Welcome to Business Chat, gentlemen. The COVID-19 pandemic spurred a wave of innovation in e-commerce, in restaurant delivery services, in FinTech, digital has raised the stakes. There's an expectation with consumers and businesses that client experiences should be on an even playing field across industries. But when it comes to applying for loans, particularly on the commercial side, those processes can be quite manual. One of the things that speed things along is real-time, financial statement data. What is real-time financial statement data? [Yvon]: Well, simply, financial statement data in real-time is just when lenders are able to access accounting software via the Internet, to power their lending decisions, and our new product offering Experian Datashare, provides this capability with the power of owner permission data. With this permissioning, small business owners are empowered with the ability to leverage their own financial data, to apply for the loans and other services that they need. So, unlike a credit report, permissioning puts the owner in control of what transactional data they share, to qualify for the loans and lines of credit that they need to keep their businesses running. So this consented data provides personalization balanced with privacy for businesses and growth, balanced with accountability for the lenders. What problem is real-time financial statement data solving for lenders? [Yvon]: The feedback that we've received falls into four-tier categories. It's revenue growth creating operational efficiencies, decreasing risk, and creating a better client experience through a modern digital journey that's easy to understand and delivers faster decisions and quicker access to the financing that the small businesses need. Mike, when you talk to clients about digital transformation, what are the things that are keeping them up at night? What are they most concerned with? [Mike]: I think all of our clients, to some degree, are going through a technical transformation, or we often call a path to modernization, and Experian is in the same boat. You know, it's hard to stay on top of technology and really leverage the cloud and be able to get new products, new services, new capabilities to market quickly. Some of the biggest challenges our clients expressed to us are how do we operate in what's become a very different environment over the last year, year, and a half with COVID. Things have moved at a much more rapid pace, as far as digitization. So the interactions with their clients have changed. It's become a bit more impersonal. It's become a bit more quick and with a sense of urgency, and many clients are struggling to do everything online and do it at a breakneck speed. This is often where API's and with different technologies, we can keep pace and help our clients integrate data, access data, and ultimately render decisions to their end-users in a much quicker and more time-efficient way. Can you talk a little bit about Experian's API Hub and getting access to our data? [Mike]: The API economy has been here for many years, and our clients are integrating our data and, you know, putting it into their systems so their users can access data real-time. And Datashare is one of those services where this data can be integrated into our client's systems. And there's no drop-off, there's no manual, or swivel chair type activity where you're going to multiple systems. It becomes a much more efficient process. And not only the client wins, but also an applicant gets a much more rapid decision and can go ahead and power their business. Can financial statement data play a role in helping emerging and underserved businesses grow? If so, how? [Yvon]: Yeah, for new and small businesses that haven't yet established business credit and rely on the owner's personal credit profile for lending decisions, Datashare gives them the ability to share their financial statements and show the financial health of the business. This expanded data can be used, in the decision-making process in addition to the standard bureau data to create more approvals. By permissioning data, these businesses are able to move out of an unscorable or subprime, hard money loan bracket,  into a space that helps them qualify for more traditional loans and lines of credit, with better rates in terms. [Gary]: Mike, I've got another slide here; businesses of color, have been severely impacted by COVID. You can see some of these stats here. 30% of black business owners say that access to credit is the biggest challenge in the next 12 months. 47% said they didn't apply for financing because they did not think they would be approved, only 37% received all of the financing they sought. Recently on a CBA webinar with a Experian, Janelle Williams from the Atlanta Fed was saying that 83% of the PPP loans went to white-owned businesses, but only 1.9% went to businesses of color. How can Experian DataShare help underserved businesses of color? [Mike]: Yeah, Gary, you're really touching on a key point here. You know, small businesses, power our economy. They make up the majority of businesses out there. And based on that recent stat you and Yvon just discussed about new business startups. There's more than ever, and we all have to do a better job of making sure there's an equal playing field when it comes to accessing capital, whether it's trade credit or financial packages, to help them manage their cash flow. And that became more evident than ever again, with the pandemic and the sudden shift in the economy. It became more and more challenging for many small businesses to manage their cash flow, pay their employees, and really see a path forward. So data share is exciting in a number of ways. What excites me is that it now combines a historical process that was done in a much more offline manual way. And now can be done in real-time. And if you start combining that with historical payment information, historical public record filings, in addition to real-time financials, you have a winning combination that can provide a clear view of a small business's financial status and real-time view. So not only the historical, which is a great way to predict future payment behavior, but also the most current accounts receivable accounts payable information that can really help you understand what their future holds. How can DataShare deepen the relationships between lenders and the small businesses that they serve? [Yvon]: Datashare drives operational efficiency. So, it allows the lenders to receive the financial statement data in a standardized format. This is regardless of the size of the business or the source of the accounting data. It drastically reduces the level of manual effort required to underwrite a loan. And it automates much of the time spent on the administrative tasks associated with the lending process. So this means that relationship managers and underwriters and credit teams are going to spend less time creating reports and gathering documents and chasing clients. And they're going to be able to spend more time holding,  we hope, value-driven conversations to deepen the relationships they have with their clients and help those businesses grow and expand in line with their needs. [Gary]: So those small businesses are going to experience greater efficiency, ease of doing business with their lender. The lender has more time to devote and work more closely with those clients, but also maybe the underserved businesses, the unscored businesses, they have that additional insight to see really how that business is doing and how they can grow that relationship with them. Am I right? [Yvon]: Yeah, absolutely. Time is the big commodity, and speed kills. So what Datashare allows lenders to do is negate all of the wasted time and effort spent onboarding and processing clients. And they can dig into that live transactional data, and get to understand the business, and perhaps share insights with the business owners that even the owners don't know. So, it allows both sides to work more efficiently and more profitably. [Gary]: Are you seeing a change in perception on the part of the business owners of today? I mean, a lot of the Millennial business owners they're used to mobile technology, they're used to delivery services on-demand services. Do you see a change in perception in permissioning, access to financial statement data? [Yvon]: Yeah, actually, we have. We typically see adoption rates as high as 90% when it comes to small businesses that are actively looking for financing. So these are motivated clients who typically go with a lender that can provide the quickest time to cash, and Datashare typically cuts down that time to about 65%. We live in a rapidly developing world where digital adoption is at an all-time high, and the same is true for small businesses. As we shift from the stacks of paper and filing cabinets, both lenders and borrowers see the benefits of leveraging technology to make their organizations more efficient and profitable. The annual review process is one pain point that we've heard a lot from clients. Is this something that could help clients minimize some of that pressure, that's a real stressor on bandwidth? [Yvon]: Yeah, absolutely. Datashare automates the monthly, quarterly, or annual review process. So when a small business permissions their data, lenders are able to choose the data refresh frequency, that is also permissioned. So, combined with covenant monitoring Datashare is able to flag accounts that fall out of an agreed risk threshold, which saves the credit team valuable time having to review their entire book of business and allows them to strategically focus on problem accounts and mitigate risk before it gets out of hand. [Gary]: So, any further thoughts on how Experian DataShare can help lenders or the small businesses they serve? [Yvon]: Yeah. Our focus will continue to be on finding ways to automate processes and provide insights into the financial statement data that we acquire. We'll continue to receive feedback from the clients that we've partnered with and integrate that into our roadmap to create new products and services that will benefit both lenders and the borrowers that they serve. [Mike]: Yeah. I would add Gary that we're at a really interesting time. You know, there's the speed and the in-depth view of a small business's financials at our client's fingertips that can help equal that playing field and open up financial opportunities for businesses of all shapes, sizes, and colors, and Experian Datashare helps with that. Combine that with our historical trade and public record data, and you've got a winning solution for both our clients who are offering the financial vehicles, as well as the applicants, the small businesses out there that need help. And that historically may have been on the outside looking in. Now they have an opportunity to share their financial situation, a picture that can help them move their business forward and access capital when they most need it. [Gary]: Well, this has been super informative, guys. I want to thank you for taking the time to come on Business Chat. And if you would like to learn more about how real-time financial statement data can help small businesses, Experian recently published a free ebook perspective paper. We'll provide a link and a QR code for you to download. If you have any questions, of course, feel free to reach out to your Experian account representative to get a conversation started about helping small businesses grow through innovative solutions like Experian DataShare. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Download Perspective Paper Learn more about alternative data

In this post, I would like to share some thoughts on the emerging business threat from the Delta Variant as it pertains to small business credit performance. Small Businesses are emerging New business applications are up 53% in the past 12 months, consistently coming in around 450k applications a month. We see these businesses become visible to commercial credit markets 3-4 months following the application. Industries including retail, transportation & warehousing, and accommodations & food services top the list as some of the fastest-growing sectors, particularly in the southern United States. Growth most pronounced in South, with FL, GA, NC Leading (5-year trend) Lenders and creditors are working hard to meet the need of their current customers and rapidly expanding inclusion programs to engage the underbanked in communities and provide access to new businesses. These emerging businesses and micro-businesses will not have the traditional credit history to access private commercial funding without the inclusion of non-traditional data. As stimulus support and moratoriums wind down, the concern is the resilience of small businesses as COVID spread and regional public policy decisions apply pressure to commercial growth and consumer spending. COVID-19 Delta variant emerges as a likely business spoiler The more contagious COVID19 variant is spreading quickly across the U.S., increasing to 21 times the average daily new case count in the last 30 days. Public policy limitation to commerce From a foot traffic perspective, the Delta variant surge has not greatly impacted small businesses as policymakers struggle to hold off on resuming state and local COVID commerce restricting policies. As case numbers rise, legal challenges to this restraint will waiver. We are seeing the return of mask mandates and capacity limitations amid indecision about whether or not schools can or will open in the fall or if remote classrooms will continue. These policy reversals and additional restrictions will be focused on social distancing versus lockdown strategies. This means stores will stay open to foot traffic, but consumers will become warier of utilizing this in-person experience. Delta hotspots highlight the small business threat A slow-down in foot traffic will place pressure on small business growth. Consumer confidence and re-emerging health concerns will play a role in how consumer spending impacts Main Street in the lead-up to the holidays. Regional COVID spread hot spots will impact supply chain for specific industries. As the variant picks up pace the travel industry and supporting industries (Hotels, Restaurants, etc..) will see customers warier to utilize the service, putting a damper on growth in this sector. COVID-19 has impacted all regions of the U.S. We needed a reset to understand how the newest variant is impacting areas outside of previous surges. Experian created a Delta Variant index to understand how small businesses will be affected differently now vs prior surges. We see a divergence of regional growth trends impacted by variant spread, macro-economic pressures, labor re-engagement, and consumer spend. Global trade pressures will continue to impact supply chain success. Creditors are formulating new risk management strategies for onboarding, term flexibility, balance management, and treatment that include traditional and non-traditional data. This COVID variant RESET, how we evaluate small business impact due to spread, is important in identifying areas of resilience and accelerated growth opportunity and uncovering industry and local risk. View COVID Risk Dashboard The COVID-19 U.S. Business Risk Index was developed by Experian Business Information Services to help businesses better understand the impact COVID-19 may have on their commercial operations. Related posts 4 ideas to help your company weather the COVID-19 downturn Visualizing the business impact of COVID-19 with Business Risk Simulator Tool

Q2 2021 Main Street Report Highlights   Experian and Moody's Analytics have just released the Q2  2021 Main Street Report. The report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape and offers commentary on business credit trends and what they mean for lenders and small businesses. Here are a few highlights:  Price increases and supply chain issues persist The labor shortage is driving wage growth in some industries GDP grew at 6.5 percent As some industries struggle to contain price increases and to survive in a post-pandemic world, others are thriving on the back of economic reopenings driving consumption. Reopenings and pent-up demand for services are pushing up economic growth and powering a robust economic recovery. Moderately delinquent small business credit, defined as 31-90 days past due (DPD), moved down in the second quarter to 1.19 percent. But severe delinquency moved higher in the second quarter to 2.35 percent. After a long period of decline, this upward movement in severe delinquency rates is the largest in the post-recession period. Rising costs is becoming a factor among small businesses as they service their credit obligations. In the most recent NFIB survey, 39 percent of respondents indicated they were raising wages. If we break this down, we can see that wages are rising at double-digit rates in industries, such as leisure and hospitality. And this could spell trouble on the horizon in some sectors, as employers fight to control expenses. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter, led by consumption. The rapid rebound from Covid-driven shutdowns sustained the rapid economic growth of the second quarter as stimulus continued and vaccination rates increased. Join us for a deep dive If you would like to get the full analysis of the data behind the latest Main Street Report, watch our Quarterly Business Credit Review webinar. Just scan the code or go to the short link and remember to download your copy of the latest report. Download Q2 Report

If Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) are important to your company, this exceptional webinar with the Consumer Bankers Association and the Federal Reserve should appeal to you. Launching an effective DEI initiative starts with understanding the State of Small Businesses. In this webinar we reviewed the latest 2021 Federal Reserve Small Business Credit Survey on business owners of color and their challenges when seeking capital. In addition, you will discover lessons learned from the implementation of the PPP program in granting equitable funding access to firms of color. Hiq Lee, President of Experian Business Information Services and Brian Bond, Senior Vice President of Marketing for Experian led a discussion on financial inclusion with Janelle Williams, Senior Advisor with the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Highlights: Insights from the Fed Credit Survey results on business owners of color Lessons Learned from the PPP program. How to navigate Financial Inclusion initiatives together with Experian Understand the state of small business and the impact of the pandemic on minority business owners Learn about equitable access to funds Take steps in achieving financial inclusion initiatives.   Watch Recording

Summer 2021 Beyond the Trends report. This report goes into a deep dive into the economic trends that we're seeing in the market. We look at some commercial and consumer credit trends that will impact recovery. And we'll deep dive into some of the industries that are most impacted. One of the things we talk about in this edition is the important role small businesses play in the economy.  With vaccination rates rising, consumers are starting to return to Main Street, dining at restaurants, going to movies, and traveling.   But supply-chain shortages are driving prices up, and with it, the worry over inflation. Stay informed by downloading your copy of the Beyond the Trends report. Download Beyond The Trends Report

Experian dashboard of PPP program helps lenders mitigate future first-party fraud risk The last round of stimulus for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) ran out of funds this week. The $953 billion stimulus program, designed to help businesses, self-employed workers, sole proprietors, nonprofit organizations, and tribal businesses continue paying their workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of emergency conditions and immediate concern to serve businesses in need, lenders relaxed vetting restrictions on PPP loan applicants. Also, they rushed to digitalize services to accommodate the massive influx of new PPP loan applications. Relaxed restrictions, high demand, and time sensitivity surrounding PPP loans created potential entry points for first-party fraud, or fraud committed by known customers (individuals and entities). Lenders looking to cross-sell or up-selling PPP client's new loan products should first understand the amount of first-party fraud exposure in their PPP portfolio. Understanding potential fraud levels will help avoid unnecessary reputational risk related to the new population of PPP-related commercial clients. Experian's Commercial Data Sciences team wanted to give lenders the ability to understand the amount of first-party fraud in their PPP portfolio. To start the conversation on the scope of fraud in the PPP program, Experian evaluated the publicly available SBA PPP loan data for the first round of PPP loans; these were public-only loans originated without a private guarantor. We anonymized and scored this dataset with Experian's newly developed Commercial First-party Fraud Score. The score measures the risk probability with a machine-learned algorithm to predict first-payment or early-stage defaults within seven months from account opening. Revealing elevated levels of fraud Scoring this public data revealed segments in some PPP lender portfolios with an elevated risk of first-party fraud, in some cases 10x to 20x riskier than the baseline. First-party fraud is a type of fraud where customers intentionally default on payments, either first-time payment or a payment sometime down the line. By examining the distribution of a lender's accounts as they fall within the score bands for first-party fraud risk, lenders can understand a projected dollar amount of balances to be charged off. They can also grasp the estimated dollar amount of losses per account or loss-prevention potential for the account if it had been reviewed (assuming reviewers catch 100% of fraud.) When dealing with first-party fraud, a lender's existing identity fraud prevention tools are typically unable to detect potential fraud. If underwriting relies on a point-in-time assessment, the lender would be blind to applicants' behaviors that may change after loan origination and fraud insights gained from evaluating accounts from other lenders. As a result, first-party fraud would be hidden in charge-offs, preventing lenders from identifying it for future analysis before marketing to their PPP loan population. Experian's Commercial First-Party Fraud Score helps lenders understand the first-party fraud risk of their PPP portfolio to limit future exposure for their new PPP population. Data visualization View the PPP dataset displayed in our tableau data visualization. Suppose you are a lender and concerned about fraudulent PPP loans in your portfolio. In that case, Experian can provide you with a Lender ID so you can assess risk levels revealed by the Experian Commercial First-party Fraud Score. View PPP Dashboard

Celebrating Asian American Heritage Month at Experian One of the great things about working at Experian is experiencing how much the company promotes inclusion and diversity and bringing your whole self to work. Working with people from different backgrounds and heritage enriches the organization because our team celebrates hard work and inclusiveness. Here in Business Information Services, we have many Asian American, Pacific Islander team members and we celebrate AAPI with them. We asked colleagues working in different parts of the Experian organization to send us a video clip sharing what Asian American Pacific Islander heritage means to them and here's what they said.