The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.

Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2

Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences

Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.

Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.

Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers

Get in touch
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
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Originally appeared in Adweek This holiday advertising season, identity is the real differentiator Marketers are betting big on AI to run their holiday advertising, using it to build predictive audiences, generate creative at scale, and optimize media buys in real time. The draw is clear: greater efficiency, delivered at scale. But here’s the problem: without a solid identity foundation, AI is just guessing. And in a year when consumers are cautious and competition is fierce, guesses won’t deliver the outcomes you need. Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report shows that success this season will depend on connecting the right data to the right audiences in real time. Download the report now Are shoppers really using AI to make holiday purchases? Not yet. Only 12% of consumers plan to use AI tools to shop this season, mostly for finding discounts. Instead, trusted influences (like retailer websites, product reviews, and recommendations) still guide buying decisions. For marketers, that’s a signal to focus on credibility and connection. AI can support your holiday advertising strategy, but trust still wins the sale. Consumer sentiment heading into the holidays is low, but that could mislead marketers Here's why How marketers are really using AI in holiday advertising Behind the scenes, AI is working overtime. Teams use it to segment audiences, test creative, and optimize media in real time. These capabilities are powerful, but only if they’re grounded in accurate, persistent data. Think about the typical holiday shopper. They may browse a product online, validate it in store, and finally purchase days later from a different device than they used while browsing. If AI isn’t anchored in identity, it struggles to connect those touchpoints. Instead of amplifying relevance, it amplifies noise. See our predictions for Black Friday 2025 Why identity is the GPS for AI-driven holiday advertising Identity is what turns AI from a blunt instrument into an accurate tool. By unifying fragmented signals across channels and devices, identity provides the consistent consumer view that AI needs to be effective. With that foundation, AI can do more than churn out models. Instead, it can: Identify the right audiences and filter out waste Personalize with context, not just scale Measure real outcomes, linking exposures to visits and purchases Identity doesn’t just improve efficiency; it creates accountability. And in a season where every holiday advertising campaign dollar is scrutinized, accountability is the difference between investment and waste. Why connected data will make or break Cyber Week How to turn complexity into clarity this holiday season This year's holiday advertising season is complicated. Marketers are confident, consumers are cautious, and AI is somewhere in the middle. The challenge isn’t just speed or volume, it’s accuracy. By pairing AI with identity, you can adapt to real behavior instead of assumptions. You can build campaigns that are consistent across connected TV, retail media, and social platforms. And you can prove results when it matters most. AI isn’t a holiday miracle. But when it’s powered by identity, it can give you clarity in a noisy season and proof of performance when budgets are under scrutiny. Explore Experian's holiday audiences to activate this season What’s the real takeaway for marketers this season? Don’t assume AI alone will save your holiday advertising strategy. It won’t. Consumers still trust human voices more than machines, and your AI models are only as strong as the data beneath them. Identity is the difference between guesswork and accuracy, between activity and impact. This holiday season, the winners won’t be the brands that simply spend more or automate faster. They’ll be the ones that put identity at the core of their AI strategy and meet consumers where they really are. Download Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to see where consumers are spending and how identity can help your holiday advertising campaigns more effective. Download now About the author Colleen Dawe VP, Advertiser Partnerships, Experian Colleen Dawe is VP, Advertiser Partnerships at Experian Marketing Services, where she oversees revenue growth and client success, helping advertisers harness data and identity to fuel marketing strategies. With over 15 years of experience spanning TV and digital media, she brings deep expertise in data, identity, activation, and measurement to help her clients connect innovation with business outcomes. Holiday advertising FAQs Why isn’t AI enough on its own for holiday advertising? AI works best when it’s grounded in accurate data. 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In our Ask the Expert Series, we interview leaders from our partner organizations who are helping lead their brands to new heights in AdTech. Today’s interview is with Paul Zovighian, VP of Marketplaces at Index Exchange. Sell-side activation vs. buy-side packaging What’s fundamentally changed with sell-side decisioning, and how does it now diverge from traditional buy-side packaging? Sell-side decisioning is programmatic’s next major evolution – one that redefines how intelligence enters the transaction. Advances in infrastructure and computing power now allow supply-side platforms(SSPs) to act in the crucial pre-bid moment, enriching impressions with context, quality, and data before they reach the buy side. This isn’t just about efficiency; it’s about unlocking new value. Smarter requests mean buyers see only the most relevant opportunities, while publishers gain recognition for the true worth of their audiences and environments. We’re still at the beginning of this shift. Many players still package inventory without engaging in real pre-bid intelligence. As the market matures, the companies that evolve toward sell-side decisioning will be the ones to set the pace for programmatic’s future. Economic shifts with scaled curation As curation scales, what economic levers shift for both publishers and buyers, and how do those shifts influence deal structure and media planning? As curation scales, one of the most powerful levers is data. It’s the industry’s most valuable asset, and on Index it keeps its full worth. We don’t take a platform cut or add hidden fees, so data partners benefit from the clearest, most efficient economics in the market. Data vendors gain confidence that their economics aren’t eroded by a platform tax. For publishers, this means stronger yield and more ad spend flowing directly into working media. When data retains its full value, it enhances how impressions are packaged, priced, and differentiated—driving more competition for quality inventory and more opportunities for revenue. For buyers, it means compressed supply paths and total transparency – they know exactly what they’re paying for. With no intermediaries and full transparency into economics, buyers gain a clearer view of where their budgets go and the confidence that their investments reach real audiences in trusted environments. They benefit from cleaner supply chains, better performance, and more meaningful alignment between spend and outcome. The result is a healthier marketplace where both sides benefit from efficiency, fairness, and scale. Moving decisions upstream for value What decisions historically made in DSPs should now move upstream to publishers or SSPs to unlock more value, and which should remain buy-side? Decisioning is no longer confined to demand-side platforms(DSPs). We can enrich impressions by applying intelligence — via data, algorithms, creative technology, and more, before they even reach the buy side — adding context, filtering out low-quality supply, and expanding audience discovery. This isn’t about shifting roles; DSPs remain critical for campaign strategy, optimization, and budget allocation. The sell side simply ensures every bid request is smarter from the start, creating more value for all parties. In doing so, we also alleviate pressure on DSPs — enabling more comprehensive data discovery by searching for signals at the top of the funnel, prior to optimization. That means DSPs can focus on what they do best, supported by a cleaner, more transparent supply path. Index Marketplaces use cases explained Index Marketplaces is designed to enable the strength of our partners, and Experian brings one of the broadest sets of demographic and audience insights in the industry. That scale enables a wide variety of applications, from more precise audience activation to deeper measurement and analytics. What’s different on the sell side is how those insights are applied. By activating Experian’s syndicated audiences directly at the point of decision, their value is realized in real time and across the full scale of the open internet. Buyers gain a clearer path to relevant audiences, and publishers benefit from stronger alignment between data and media. It’s an approach that ensures partners like Experian can maximize the impact of their assets while helping the market move toward more intelligent, performance-driven activation. Identity signals with stronger privacy For identity partners like Experian, what’s the right way to bring audience, context, and propensity signals into sell-side activation? The beauty of sell-side decisioning is that it reduces the hops in how identity signals are applied. Without it, IDs have to travel through multiple platforms, creating extra handoffs and additional risks of data loss or leakage. With sell-side decisioning, those signals are obfuscated under a deal ID and applied directly at the point of decision. That means audience, context, and propensity data are activated securely, without ever leaving the sell-side environment. For partners like Experian, it’s the cleanest path to value: fewer hops, stronger privacy protection, and clearer economics for everyone in the chain. Contact us About our expert Paul Zovighian VP of Marketplaces, Index Exchange Paul Zovighian carries over a decade of industry expertise, stemming from his analytics and optimization roots to his current post as VP, Marketplaces, where he is focused on the commercial activation of Index’s newest product, Index Marketplaces. Previously, in his role as VP of corporate development, Paul led Index’s first-ever business acquisition. In his spare time, he enjoys long walks on the beach and befriending cats in NYC’s thriving bodega community. About Index Exchange Index Exchange is a global advertising supply-side platform enabling media owners to maximize the value of their content on any screen. They’re a proud industry pioneer with over 20 years of experience connecting leading experience makers with the world’s largest brands to ensure a quality experience for consumers. FAQs What is sell-side decisioning, and why is it important? Sell-side decisioning allows publishers to add intelligence, like audience data and context, before ad impressions are sent to buyers. This makes the process more efficient and ensures advertisers see only the most relevant opportunities. How does sell-side decisioning differ from traditional buy-side packaging? Traditional buy-side packaging happens after impressions are sent to demand-side platforms (DSPs). Sell-side decisioning moves some of that intelligence upstream, enriching impressions earlier and reducing inefficiencies. What does "curation" mean in this context, and how does it benefit publishers and advertisers? Curation refers to the process of organizing and enriching ad inventory with data and context. For publishers, it leads to better yield and more ad spend going directly to their media. For advertisers, it means clearer, more transparent supply paths. How does sell-side decisioning improve privacy? By applying audience and identity signals directly on the sell side, data stays within a secure environment. This reduces the number of platforms handling sensitive information, lowering the risk of data loss or leakage. What role does Experian play in sell-side decisioning? Experian provides demographic and audience insights that are activated directly at the point of decision. This helps advertisers reach the right audiences more effectively while ensuring publishers can maximize the value of their inventory. Why is moving decisioning upstream beneficial for DSPs? When publishers and SSPs handle some decisioning earlier, DSPs can focus on campaign strategy and optimization. This creates a cleaner, more efficient process for everyone involved. What is a deal ID, and how does it enhance privacy? A deal ID is a unique identifier used in programmatic advertising to bundle audience and context signals securely. It ensures data is applied without being exposed or shared across multiple platforms. Latest posts