The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Get in touch
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
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The holiday season is almost here, and knowing how each generation plans to shop can give your holiday advertising campaigns the edge you need. Our recent survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers reveals 2024 holiday shopping trends for each generation and key insights into their anticipated spending levels, preferred shopping categories, and how they look for gift ideas. In this blog post, we'll explore three 2024 holiday shopping trends across generations: Projected consumer spending Top categories on shoppers' lists Preferred channels for researching gifts Download our 2024 report 1. Projected consumer spending Over 1 in 3 Gen Z and Millennials are gearing up to increase their holiday budgets this year, while Gen X and Boomers are likelier to stick to last year's budget. 36% of Millennials and Gen Z plan to spend more this holiday season 45% of Gen X and 52% of Boomers expect their spending to remain consistent with last year What this means for marketers These insights highlight the importance of tailoring your messaging. For Gen Z and Millennials, emphasize value and unique offerings that justify increased spending. For Gen X and Boomers, focus on trust and reliability, reinforcing their confidence in your brand. How Experian can help you target these audiences Experian’s custom and syndicated audience segments, including Holiday Shopper High Spenders and Holiday Shopper Moderate Spenders, enable you to connect with these diverse consumer groups. Our audiences are available on-the-shelf of leading ad platforms to help you reach people across social, TV, and mobile. The election effect U.S. holiday retail sales saw 4.1% YoY growth in 2016 and 8.3% YoY growth in 2020 following presidential elections. There’s a chance that holiday spending increases after the 2024 election, regardless of the outcome. Experian has 240+ politically relevant audiences that you can activate across major ad platforms ahead of the upcoming election. 2. Top categories on shoppers' lists Different generations have distinct preferences when it comes to what they plan to buy. Gift cards top the list for Gen X and Boomers, while Gen Z leans toward clothing. Millennials are looking to splurge on toys, electronics, and experiences. 69% of Boomers and Gen X plan to purchase gift cards 72% of Gen Z will buy clothing 45% of Millennials will buy health and beauty items 25% of Millennials will buy tickets and 22% of Millennials will buy experiences What this means for marketers Align your product offerings and promotions with each generation's preferences to capture their attention. For example, highlighting versatile gift cards may resonate more with older generations, while showcasing trendy apparel and tech gadgets will appeal to younger consumers. How Experian can help you target these shoppers We offer audience segments like Holiday Shoppers: Apparel, Cosmetics & Beauty Spenders, and Toys Shoppers that you can activate to connect with consumers primed to purchase in these categories. We recently released 19 new holiday shopping audiences we recommend targeting to drive engagement and conversions. Download our audience recommendations here. 3. Preferred channels for researching gift ideas When it comes to finding the perfect gifts, Gen Z turns to social media, while Millennials prefer online reviews and video content. Boomers and Gen X are more inclined to visit physical stores for hands-on product evaluations. 29% of Gen Z and 26% of Millennials will look for gift ideas on social media 44% of Millennials will rely on video reviews and product demos on platforms like YouTube 49% of Gen X and Boomers plan to visit physical stores to evaluate products in person What this means for marketers Understanding where each generation looks for inspiration can guide your content and ad placement strategy. To engage Gen Z, focus on social media campaigns and influencer partnerships. For Millennials, consider investing in video content and reviews. For older generations, ensure your in-store experience is optimized to convert browsing into purchases. How Experian can help you engage these shoppers Our TrueTouchTM audiences can help you pair the perfect messaging styles with the right channels and calls to action. Our Social media channel and content engagement audiences can help you reach Gen Z who are likely to be active users on major social platforms and are Black Friday shoppers. For a full list of Experian’s syndicated audiences and activation destinations, download our syndicated audiences guide. Download our new 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report This holiday season is about more than just transactions – it’s about cultivating meaningful connections with your audience. Download our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, in collaboration with GroundTruth, to access all of our predictions for this year’s holiday season. Download now When you work with Experian for your holiday shopping campaigns, you’re getting: Accurate consumer insights: Better understand your customers’ behavioral and demographic attributes with our #1 ranked data covering the full U.S. population. Signal-agnostic identity solutions: Our deep understanding of people in the offline and digital worlds provides you with a persistent linkage of personally identifiable information (PII) data and digital IDs, ensuring you accurate cross-device targeting, addressability and measurement. Secure connectivity: Bring data and identity to life in a way that meets your needs by securely sharing data between partners, utilizing the integrations we have across the ecosystem, and using our marketing data in flexible ways. Make the most of this holiday shopping season with Experian. Contact us today to get started. Contact us Source Online survey conducted in June, 2024 among n=1,000 U.S. adults 18+. Sample balanced to look like the general population on key demographics (age, gender, household income, ethnicity, and region). Latest posts
Today, Experian is excited to introduce our Offline Graph as a standalone product that clients can license, marking a significant step in our commitment to powering data-driven advertising through connectivity. Offline Graph empowers advertisers and advertising technology companies to build and refine consumer profiles, contributing to data connectivity, more offline audience reach, and improved offline measurement accuracy. As a result of consumers engaging with content across more channels, there are more disparate data points than ever before. When you couple that with ongoing signal loss, the need for a unified identity solution has never been greater. Experian’s Offline Graph offers companies a license of stable offline data points, like name, address, phone number, email, geographic information, date of birth, and additional attributes that provide a complete view of household and individual identities. The Offline Graph integrates known offline identity information from reliable deterministic sources like property ownership records, public records, and marketing data to provide access to all United States consumers and households. How customers can use the Offline Graph A big box retailer fills in the blanks of their existing customer data and builds a database of prospects. A media platform more effectively onboards advertisers’ segments, enabling advertisers to reach more of their customers. A retail brand better understands their customer’s demographic and behavioral make-up, by licensing Offline Graph with Marketing Attributes. A connected TV (CTV) manufacturer increases audience reach and accurately quantifies the campaign impact for their advertising partners. Experian’s Offline Graph is already driving value across industries. Here’s some in-depth client success stories: Fusion92 licenses Offline Graph to help their clients transform their marketing Fusion92 is a marketing partner that fuels business transformation in today’s digital economy and delivers exponential returns for brands. Fusion92 licenses Experian’s Offline Graph to power their strategy: from research and discovery to audience creation, activation, and measurement. With access to our Offline Graph, Fusion92 ensures their clients get the insights, targeting, reach, and measurement they need to achieve their business goals. "At Fusion92, we are always pushing the envelope to develop solutions that lead to success for our clients. Our desire to innovate pushed us to find an industry-leading partner in data and identity. This led to us licensing Experian’s Offline Graph product, which we use to build more complete audience profiles for our clients. In doing so, we help brands target, activate, and measure their marketing campaigns more effectively, leading to superior results.”dave nugent, executive vice president of data and analytics, fusion92 Using Offline Graph to deliver relevant messaging to multiple audience cohorts A leading direct-to-consumer (DTC) company with strong customer relationships built a robust first-party data set, enabling effective customer retention. To attract new customers, they partnered with Experian to access offline identity data from Experian’s Offline Graph. The Offline Graph provides them with the data needed to validate their first-party data and with the keys to unlock new customers. With this data, the DTC company delivered the right message to both sets of consumers: existing customers and new prospects. By integrating Experian’s Offline Graph they broadened their reach, personalized their messaging, and improved their marketing. What sets Experian’s Offline Graph apart from the competition Stability of data: With data from deterministic sources, our Offline Graph ensures that your view of consumers – and your ability to connect with them – is stable over time. Connected digital and offline data: Seamlessly connect offline data with digital identifiers through our Digital Graph, enabling a holistic approach to marketing, while ensuring consumer privacy is prioritized. Tailor made for your use cases: Build the Offline Graph to fit your specific needs, selecting the exact offline identity information required for your campaigns. Expanded consumer insights: Connect more data points to enrich your understanding of consumer demographics and behavior, using Experian’s Marketing Attributes and Audiences data. Offline Graph: Your gateway to consumer connectivity As signals fade, there is a large emphasis on procuring and having accurate consumer data. Experian’s Offline Graph delivers the connectivity and insights necessary to stay ahead. Whether you aim to strengthen your existing data or access entirely new data sets, Experian’s Offline Graph offers a solution tailored to your needs. Transform your data strategy with Experian’s Offline Graph — your gateway to a unified consumer identity solution. Contact us Latest posts
Ditch the cookie, not the data with the next evolution of contextual targeting Today, we're excited to announce Contextually-Indexed Audiences, a game-changer in contextual targeting. Experian’s new solution offers advertisers a powerful, privacy-safe solution that combines the precision of deterministic audience targeting with the flexibility of contextual targeting. Powered by real-time analysis from two million websites, access to 1,400 trusted audience segments, and easy activation through the top demand-side platform’s contextual marketplace or Audigent private marketplaces (PMPs), this solution offers advertisers a scalable way to reach their target consumers. With this solution, advertisers can reach consumers on websites that over-index for visitors with the demographics, behaviors, or interests, they are looking to target. For example, an automotive brand can select Experian’s “Contextually-indexed in-market for a luxury electric car” audience segment and reach consumers when they are browsing websites that often attract that exact segment. Best of all, this is done in a privacy-safe way since it’s not reliant on cookies, mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) or other user identifiers. How Contextually-Indexed Audiences work Contextually-Indexed Audiences harness advanced machine learning technology to move beyond traditional keyword-based strategies. The solution works in three steps: First, it analyzes traffic from over two million websites and mobile apps to identify the types of frequent visitors to those platforms. Next, using Experian’s Digital Graph, it resolves the identities of those visitors and maps them to more than 1,400 of Experian’s Syndicated Audiences, determining which audiences are most overrepresented on each site. Finally, the relevant audiences are assigned to those sites, allowing advertisers to deliver ads to people in those audiences while they are actively browsing the websites — without relying on user identifiers. Customer success story A leading auto manufacturer was among the first clients to activate this new solution while we were in beta. The goal was to identify new contextual targeting solutions that focus on privacy while maintaining scale and performance. The client identified two key target audiences: first-time vehicle buyers and experienced buyers. The initial campaigns using this new solution were highly successful. Even as the campaign scaled to twice the original volume, it continued to deliver three times the targeted click-through rate (CTR) goal. “Partnering with industry leaders like Experian, we're pushing the boundaries of contextual targeting with innovative data strategies that offer buyers greater flexibility and improved performance. These advanced contextual solutions are exciting as they not only drive results but also have the same privacy safeguards as traditional contextual targeting.”Matt Griffith, CTO & Co-Founder, Audigent Benefits of Contextually-Indexed Audiences Accurate consumer reach: Real-time integrations with over two million websites and apps coupled with machine-learning indexing technology ensure audience segments are constantly refreshed, which means advertisers reach consumers based on their latest habits. Privacy-safe audience targeting: These audiences are not reliant on cookies or any other user identifiers for targeting. Audience customization: Create the right audience segment for your campaign by using a combination of over 1,400 audiences across 12 data categories like demographics, politics, health, travel, finance, and TV. Flexible activation: Activate these audiences instantly in the top demand-side platform’s contextual marketplace or utilize our partnership with Audigent to create a custom private marketplace (PMP), where they can be activated across any media buying platform. When using a PMP, advertisers benefit from additional performance optimization capabilities. Experian’s Contextually-Indexed Audiences offer advertisers a powerful solution that combines the precision of audience targeting with the flexibility of contextual targeting. With real-time analysis of over two million sites and access to 1,400 trusted audience segments, advertisers can reach consumers based on their exact behaviors and interests. This is done in a privacy-safe, yet scalable way since it’s not reliant on cookies or other user identifiers. Whether activating instantly through the top demand-side platform or customizing through Audigent PMPs, this is the future of audience targeting. Ditch the cookie, not the data, and elevate your strategy today. Contact us Latest posts