The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.
First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.
Turbulence with Twitter
After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.
The retail media boom
In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1
Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.
Consumption continues to fragment
It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2
Data deprecation is top of mind
According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3
Data deprecation affects identity solutions
Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.
Recession fears
In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4
Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession
With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:
- People-led planning
- Test creative
- Optimize for marginal costs
People-led planning
Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5
Test creative
Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.
Optimize for marginal costs
Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.
Find the right marketing mix in a recession
With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.
You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:
- Audiences
- Identity
- Activation
Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.
Audiences: Know your customer
The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.
Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.
Four digital audiences to consider
Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:
- Demographics
- Behavioral
- Modeled Lifestyles
- Custom Audiences
Demographics
Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.
Behavioral
This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.
Modeled Lifestyles
Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.
Custom Audiences
This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.
Changes in digital audience strategies
Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.
When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.
Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.
Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.
Identity: Understand the customer journey
Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.
What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.
Identity resolution challenges
Identity resolution faces two main challenges:
- Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
- Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.
As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.
Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution
Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.
Finding an identity resolution partner
When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:
- What makes up their consumer database?
- How fresh is their data?
- What identifiers can they match?
- How do they protect consumer privacy?
At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.
Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:
- Offline
- Digital
This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.
Identity resolution in action
Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.
Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.
Challenge
Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.
Solution
Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.
With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.
We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.
Results
By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.
Activation: Experiment and measure the impact
The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.
Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.
Demand-side platforms
We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.
Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.
Video platforms
Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.
Sell-side targeting
Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.
Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.
We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession
Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.
Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.
You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.
Find the right marketing mix
Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:
- New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
- Consumer trends for 2023
- Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Get in touch
Sources
- 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
- Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
- CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
- Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
- People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.
Latest posts
In our Ask the Expert Series, we interview leaders from our partner organizations who are helping lead their brands to new heights in AdTech. Today’s interview is with Eric Shiffman, VP of Product Marketing at Yieldmo. Here are five key takeaways from Eric’s insights: Tailored campaigns with Experian data: Yieldmo integrates Experian’s trusted identity and audience data to deliver creative campaigns tailored to specific audiences, ensuring more meaningful engagement. Omnichannel activation made easy: Experian’s data marketplace helps Yieldmo expand its reach across display, mobile, and CTV, creating seamless cross-channel advertising strategies. Advanced targeting and insights: The combination of Yieldmo’s attention signals and Experian’s identity solutions allows advertisers to pinpoint audiences with precision and confidence. Driving results in key verticals: Retail, CPG, and automotive campaigns use Experian data on Yieldmo’s platform to achieve improved personalization, targeting accuracy, and measurable outcomes. Scalable and privacy-conscious advertising: Yieldmo’s partnership with Experian ensures scalable solutions that balance advanced targeting with privacy-focused practices, benefiting advertisers across all industries. About Yieldmo Yieldmo often describes itself as ‘the creative and media results company,’ using a predictive, provocative, and proven approach. Could you give us a brief overview of how this vision shaped the company and how you differentiate yourselves in ad tech? Yieldmo was built on the belief that every ad experience should be as engaging and human centered as the content around it. By merging creative excellence with advanced technology and AI, we enable advertisers to deliver custom ad formats that spark emotion and inspire action. Our proprietary attention signals and predictive format selection allow brands to optimize for outcomes before impressions are served. This approach, combined with privacy-safe inventory curation, ensures that our solutions stand out in their ability to deliver both creativity and results. Creative and inventory performance You’re known for delivering premium experiences across top-tier publishers. What strategies or innovations does Yieldmo employ to boost creative performance, increase engagement, and optimize inventory for your partners? At Yieldmo, we emphasize the fusion of creative and media. We utilize predictive AI and a vast dataset to generate, customize, and match creatives with the right audiences and page contexts, enabling proven performance and learnings. On the supply side, we elevate publisher inventory by aligning high-quality ads with relevant content in innovative, non-intrusive creative formats. This dual focus ensures that every impression is primed for engagement, delivering tangible value to advertisers and optimal monetization for publishers. Partnership with Experian As a partner of Experian, how do our identity and audience data complement Yieldmo’s platform, and why do you see this collaboration particularly beneficial for the broader advertising industry? Experian’s robust identity and audience data strengthen Yieldmo’s ability to serve precisely tailored creative experiences. By integrating Experian’s insights with our proprietary attention signals and AI-driven predictive systems, we can optimize audience targeting and engagement strategies. This partnership represents the advancement of outcome-driven advertising while giving brands the confidence of reaching the right consumers in meaningful ways. Interest in Experian's data marketplace Experian recently introduced a new data marketplace aimed at simplifying data partner audience activation across display, mobile, and CTV. Which elements of this offering are most exciting from your perspective, and how do you anticipate it shaping Yieldmo’s solutions? The unified approach of Experian’s data marketplace to streamline audience activation aligns seamlessly with Yieldmo’s vision of delivering data-driven creative optimization. The ability to activate comprehensive data sets across multiple channels expands our omnichannel solutions, bringing precision and scalability to advertisers. Lately, we have focused resources on delivering thoughtful, cross-channel creative experiences, so aligning audiences to those is a logical extension. Verticals using third-party data From your experience, which verticals or industries are most likely to activate third-party data campaigns on Yieldmo’s platform, and have you observed any emerging trends in how advertisers use data from Experian or other providers? The retail, CPG, and automotive industries have been leading adopters of third-party data, using it to fine-tune targeting and personalize their messaging. Recently, we’ve noticed a shift toward bringing more post campaign measurement insights to the supply side–brand lift, foot traffic, conversion–for better optimization, whereas historically this valuable dataset was trapped in buy-side platforms. Data utilization and success stories Could you share how Yieldmo’s data-driven approach has evolved and any standout success stories that highlight your platform’s impact and value to partners? Yieldmo has always prioritized data to inform creative decisioning, from predictive ad placements to real-time optimization. In this award-winning Humane Society case study, we utilized media curation and predictive creative to drive a >170% CTR increase, 5x the campaign benchmark, leading to more page visits and donations. Thanks for the interview. Any recommendations for our readers if they want to learn more? To learn more about our solutions and partnership opportunities, visit the Yieldmo website or contact your Experian account representative to schedule your free match test. Contact us About our expert Eric Shiffman, Vice President of Product Marketing, Yieldmo Eric Shiffman is a product marketing leader with extensive experience in advertising technology. At Yieldmo, he drives strategies that blend AI, creative optimization, and privacy-conscious solutions to deliver measurable creative and media results. Eric translates complex technologies into actionable messaging, positioning, and insights, and evangelizing products and solutions. His expertise spans creative optimization, data-driven advertising, CTV, and audience solutions. Latest posts
Originally appeared in Streaming Media Magazine Navigating today’s fragmented, privacy-conscious media landscape is a bit like stepping into a dense jungle. The buy-side—marketers, agencies, and demand-side platforms (DSPs)—must find their way through signal loss, measurement challenges, and evolving consumer expectations. But this isn’t just a challenge; it’s a strategic opportunity. Let’s dive into how buy-side players can use Experian’s advanced data and identity solutions to be their guide through the jungle and emerge as winners. Marketers: Maintaining personalization and measurement across channels Marketers are navigating an increasingly fragmented media jungle, where the deprecation of signals like cookies, mobile ad IDs (MAIDs), and IP addresses makes finding and understanding audiences feel like guesswork. To chart a clear path, marketers need a reliable compass—and identity resolution provides exactly that. A strong identity provider, grounded in offline data like names, addresses, phone numbers, and emails, acts as a guide through the chaos. By connecting offline signals with digital identifiers in a privacy-first manner, marketers can uncover the relationships between households and devices, then enrich those profiles with valuable marketing data. With a complete view of your customers, you gain deeper insights and can seamlessly reach the right audience across channels—even as signals evolve. It’s a marketer’s North Star—constant, dependable, and always pointing you in the right direction. How Experian can help Imagine a financial services brand aiming to connect with high-net-worth individuals across today’s fragmented media world. They’ve excelled on social and search but now want to dive into connected TV (CTV) and other emerging channels. Enter Experian’s Digital Graph. By seamlessly connecting digital identifiers like MAIDs, CTV IDs and hashed emails (HEMs), our graph becomes the bridge that unifies their audience across every channel. Suddenly, the same audience that saw their ad on social during lunch is now watching a personalized spot on CTV that evening, all thanks to Experian. The result? A cohesive campaign that delivers hyper-relevant messages, stronger engagement, and measurable success. With Experian, fragmentation becomes connection, and personalization stays powerful across the entire media landscape. Agencies: Strategic partners in a fragmented world Agencies are the architects of the identity jungle, building bridges that guide brands through fragmentation and deliver campaign success. Thriving in this terrain requires data solutions that create actionable insights, enable personalization, and drive measurable outcomes. To meet marketers’ demands, many agencies have invested heavily—acquiring data companies or forging strategic partnerships to strengthen their foundations in data and identity solutions. These investments help them connect fragmented audience data and unlock new opportunities for their clients. But even with in-house capabilities, agencies often need more—more attributes, more integrations, and greater connectivity. In the jungle of identity, success isn’t just about building better data assets; it’s about ensuring those assets can be utilized across platforms. How Experian can help Picture a large independent agency ready to step up its game—expanding beyond its middle-market niche to attract enterprise-level clients. But to play in the big leagues, they need more than a solid strategy; they need data and identity solutions that deliver a competitive edge. Enter Experian. With our rich identity graph and deep customer insights, the agency can unlock new opportunities for its clients. Imagine offering enterprises the ability to connect fragmented audience data, create hyper-targeted campaigns, and measure success across every channel. The payoff? The agency doesn’t just win over new enterprise clients; it strengthens relationships with existing customers by proving it can navigate today’s fragmented media landscape with precision and measurable impact. With Experian, the agency becomes an indispensable strategic partner in the data-driven advertising world. DSPs: Navigating signal loss with a multi-ID strategy For DSPs, navigating the identity jungle means forging a path through the winding trails of cookieless strategies. With third-party cookies fading and no single identity solution—like Unified ID 2.0 (UID2)—able to cover all media engagement, DSPs must adapt to a multi-ID world. The challenge is twofold: finding flexible solutions to manage a multitude of identifiers while staying compliant with a growing number of state-level privacy laws. It’s not just a technical problem; it’s a call for strategic vision. And the way to thrive in this ever-changing terrain is to invest in identity solutions that connect digital and offline identifiers to a single customer profile. How Experian can help Imagine a DSP navigating a complex web of identifiers—UID2, HEMs, proprietary IDs—while juggling compliance with evolving privacy laws. Experian steps in as the ultimate connector. Our identity solutions, powered by stable offline data, are signal-agnostic and integrated across the advertising ecosystem. This ensures that DSPs can confidently manage multiple identity frameworks, keeping campaigns targeted, measurable, and compliant. With Experian, DSPs gain more than a stopgap solution; they get a future-proof identity strategy. The result? Better targeting, smoother omnichannel execution, and the strategic edge needed to thrive in a fragmented, multi-ID world. Turning identity challenges into a strategic advantage The identity jungle is a thriving ecosystem for those with the right guide. Experian helps marketers, agencies, and DSPs chart the course by unifying multiple identifiers into a single, complete customer profile. With the right tools (and a good map), buy-side stakeholders can learn more about their customer, reach audiences across channels, and deliver personalized marketing. Read our companion article to learn how the sell-side is approaching data and identity challenges. Read now Get started today Latest posts
We spoke with industry leaders from Ampersand, Basis Technologies, Captify, Cuebiq, CvE, Fetch, Madhive, MiQ, and Samsung to gather insights on how innovations in data and identity are creating stronger consumer connections. Here are five key insights to consider. 1. Build on trust with first-party data Stricter privacy regulations and growing customer expectations mean businesses must rethink how they gather and use data. A robust first-party data strategy centers on gathering high-quality data, such as behavioral and transactional data. By using behavioral, lifestyle, and purchasing data, brands can craft personalized strategies that align with their goals. This approach balances effective targeting with building trust and complying with privacy rules. Integrating identity solutions like Unified I.D. 2.0 (UID2) and ID5 into existing data strategies improves interoperability across platforms while keeping user privacy intact. These tools help create more effective campaigns. "We've been preparing and leaning into educating our clients around the value of first-party data. These are very important and primary considerations in any of our campaigns."April Weeks, Basis Technologies 2. Align metrics with business goals To demonstrate clear value, campaigns need to tie their outcomes to broader goals. Relying only on click-through rates or CPMs won’t cut it. Metrics that measure meaningful results, like driving sales or increasing customer retention, provide greater transparency than surface level data, like clicks or impressions. A continuous feedback loop between targeting and measurement ensures campaigns can be refined to better align with business objectives. This feedback helps marketers understand who they are targeting and how those audiences are driving key business results. Shifting focus to metrics that resonate with stakeholders ensures that marketing efforts are evaluated based on their true contribution to the company's objectives. "The television industry has access to more data than ever before, and at Samsung Ads, our ACR technology helps us provide valuable insights about what content and ads are being viewed. This abundance of data enables us to support clients in aligning their campaigns with business objectives effectively."Justin Evans, Samsung Ads 3. Personalize experiences to boost engagement Personalization drives stronger customer relationships by delivering tailored experiences to individual customer needs. Using data-driven insights to fine-tune offers and messaging makes interactions more relevant, strengthening brand loyalty. Combining behavioral, lifestyle, and transactional data provides a comprehensive understanding of the customer journey and ensures each touchpoint feels personal. Testing and iterating on personalization strategies also helps identify which data and approaches yield the best results. Scaling these efforts means customers receive the right messaging at the right time, and businesses see better outcomes. "Every business should be building a data strategy that thinks about the different versions of data that exist and how they bring that together. They don't necessarily need to own all of it but have a clear rationale and strategy about where you're using which data sets."Paul Frampton, CvE 4. Utilize advanced measurement tools for smarter decisions Improving the effectiveness of campaigns starts with using sophisticated measurement tools to gain actionable insights. Using analytics like brand lift studies, foot traffic analysis, app download tracking, incrementality, and share of search allows marketers to understand the full impact of their efforts. With these resources, teams can pinpoint what’s working, make real-time adjustments, and refine their approach. This adaptability ensures budgets are used as effectively as possible. Learn how Swiss Sense measured marketing outcomes using Mosaic® "We are playing a leading role in democratizing new tools for local advertisers. By mimicking the marketing funnel mentality, we've introduced solutions ranging from measuring brand lift to tracking foot traffic and app downloads."Luc Dumont, Madhive 5. Adapt quickly to stay competitive The only constant in advertising is change. Adapting quickly to new technologies and consumer behaviors keeps businesses competitive. A culture of agility fosters innovation, making it easier to respond to industry shifts and discover new opportunities. Companies that anticipate change and invest in modern data solutions position themselves for long-term growth. Whether it’s adjusting to privacy updates, exploring emerging tech, or staying flexible, businesses must continuously invest in adapting their platforms and strategies. "Falling behind is not really an option. There's always a change in advertising and in data where there's a new horizon. The people who stay close to that and innovate will always follow it."Amelia Waddington, Captify Shaping the future Building meaningful consumer connections requires advertisers to combine robust data strategies with flexibility and innovation. By focusing on these five considerations, marketers can adapt to today’s challenges while preparing for what’s ahead. Connect with our experts Latest posts