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Three essential ingredients for your marketing mix in a recession

Published: March 7, 2023 by Experian Marketing Services

The AdTech industry is undergoing rapid changes as it adjusts to the impacts of data deprecation and ever-changing privacy regulations. At the same time, there are fears of a potential economic downturn. How should you handle marketing in a recession? What should your marketing mix look like? In this blog post, we’ll cover how to navigate this uncertainty and three essential ingredients for your marketing mix.

First, we’ll look at the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers.

Turbulence with Twitter

After Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover in October 2022, half of Twitter’s top 100 advertisers left the platform and started to seek out alternatives.

The retail media boom

In the next four years, Forrester Research projects that U.S. retail media ad sales will double to reach 85 billion by 2026.1

Most of this growth is catalyzed by CPG and consumer electronic brands that have a scarcity of zero- and first-party data; they need more media closer to the point of purchase, especially as CFOs are scrutinizing budgets.

Chart that forecasts U.S. retail media ad sales will more than double in four years

Consumption continues to fragment

It’s becoming harder than ever to reach the right person, at the right time, predict their intent, and get a 360-degree view of your customer.2

Chart that shows fragmented consumer media consumption

Data deprecation is top of mind

According to Forrester Research, updating their data strategy to address data deprecation is the number one priority for marketers. Addressing data deprecation is also a priority for consumers, who increasingly feel that audience targeting is more intrusive than beneficial.3

Data deprecation affects identity solutions

Third-party data and mobile ad IDs (MAIDs) are the connective tissue for identity solutions. As we see those signals go away, there are fewer linkages to resolve identity and it’s leading to a rise in fragmented, duplicated, and shallow identity.

Recession fears

In addition to everything happening in AdTech, there are also fears of a possible recession. According to Forrester, 40% of Gen Z and 41% of Millennials believe fears of an upcoming recession are greatly exaggerated. On the other hand, only 24% of Gen X and 12% of Baby Boomers agree.4

Navigate uncertainty and marketing in a recession

With the current macroeconomic conditions, data deprecation, and fragmented consumption in mind, what should your strategy look like for marketing in a recession? Forrester recommends three strategies:

  • People-led planning
  • Test creative
  • Optimize for marginal costs

People-led planning

Planning doesn’t have to be fragmented. Map offline and online media exposures to consumer decision journeys. Strategies like lifetime value (LTV) driven audience segmentation to correlate awareness at top of the funnel layered with demand generation exposures harvested later in the funnel. To do this, it’s crucial to work with providers that give you visibility into the audience buyer’s journey to awareness, intent, consideration, and purchase, all the way through to loyalty.5

Test creative

Make your creative work harder for you. Apply the same rigor with your creative that you applied to segmentation. Utilize multivariate testing to identify creative that is winning or losing. When you understand how each variable performs, you can scale the variables with creative optimization to have a material impact on performance.

Optimize for marginal costs

Optimize for marginal costs of acquisition, not just the average. Adjust for incrementality – what is the cost to acquire one more customer, rather than the average cost of acquisition.

Find the right marketing mix in a recession

With these changes in mind, how can you find the right marketing mix in a recession? We can show you the way.

You can create the right marketing mix with three key ingredients:

  • Audiences
  • Identity
  • Activation

Let’s explore each ingredient to start you down the path toward marketing campaign success.

Audiences: Know your customer

The first ingredient to add to your marketing mix in a recession is your audience. Knowing your customer is key to targeting the right audiences successfully. Data-driven targeting can help you find your best audiences based on demographics, modeled lifestyles, and behaviors to improve marketing campaign performance.

Not sure where to start when it comes to developing your target audience strategy? We can help. We track digital usage of our data used by advertisers and identified the top four digital audiences that advertisers purchased over the last four years.

Four digital audiences to consider

Marketing strategies are only as strong as the data foundation they’re built on. The top four digital audiences that advertisers are purchasing from Experian include:

  • Demographics
  • Behavioral
  • Modeled Lifestyles
  • Custom Audiences
Chart that shows the top digital audiences by industry from 2019-2022

Demographics

Examples include age, gender, relationship status, living situation, life experience, and employment.

Behavioral

This audience allows marketers to identify households that are more likely to engage in certain activities or belong to certain groups.

Modeled Lifestyles

Experian’s Mosaic® USA segmentation. This is a household-based consumer lifestyle segmentation system that classifies all U.S. households and neighborhoods into 71 unique types and 19 overarching groups, providing a 360-degree view of consumers’ choices, preferences, and habits.

Custom Audiences

This is an audience blended from multiple sources or derived from first-party look-alike modeling.

Changes in digital audience strategies

Over the last four years, Modeled Lifestyles and Custom Audience purchases represented the smallest share of digital activation, while Behavioral and Demographic segments were more popular with advertisers.

When the U.S. rolled out the COVID-19 vaccine, consumers became more active. People were shopping in stores, returning to the gym, and taking trips that they had postponed during the height of the pandemic. Marketers turned to higher compositions of Demographic and Modeled Lifestyles to reach these audiences between April and December of 2021.

Sustained growth in Demographic audience activation could suggest a move back to tried and true audience strategies as signals continue to decline and amid evolving regulation. With economic uncertainty, marketers return to what they know. Traditional targeting methods like Demographics and Modeled Lifestyles are the baseline of many marketing strategies and we predict that we will continue to see marketers activating against these data sets.

Download our 2023 digital audience trends and predictions report to discover our full insights on how digital activation has changed and where we’re headed.

Identity: Understand the customer journey

Identity resolution is the next ingredient that you should add to your marketing mix in a recession. It should be a foundational element of every marketer’s strategy.

What is identity resolution? In the simplest terms, identity resolution is the process of matching different devices, IDs, and touchpoints back to a single person. Identity resolution expands marketers’ addressability and reach of their target audience and helps inform and measure accurate customer journeys.

Identity resolution challenges

Identity resolution faces two main challenges:

  1. Making the data actionable. Humans are complex. We have behaviors that change based on our current social groups and life events, we use dozens of internet-connected devices in a single day, and we exhibit distinct behaviors that happen online and in the physical world. This means marketers have mounds of data being collected from different channels based on that dynamic behavior of people, making it feel impossible to organize the data in a way that makes it feel actionable, know how it ties back to real humans, and ensure they’re doing it in a responsible and compliant way.
  2. Signal loss. Marketers continue to lose important signals that they’ve previously been able to rely on to inform their next move. Signals are being lost as our industry places more privacy regulations and restrictions on what can be tracked and as consumers themselves change behaviors to protect their privacy.

As consumer behaviors continue to change and signals disappear, identity resolution gets exponentially harder.

Expand addressability and reach with identity resolution

Data deprecation adversely affects identity solutions, but identity resolution should be a key ingredient in your marketing mix. Identity resolution ensures that consumers experience more relevant products, offers, and messaging – allowing you to reap the ROI benefits of hitting consumers at the perfect point in their journey.

Resolve and enrich identity with identifiers and attributes

Finding an identity resolution partner

When selecting an identity resolution partner, you should understand the data and processes that are implemented behind the scenes. It’s important to know:

  • What makes up their consumer database?
  • How fresh is their data?
  • What identifiers can they match?
  • How do they protect consumer privacy?

At Experian, we’re rooted in deterministic offline data which creates a stable foundation. We then layer in digital and behavioral touchpoints. We have decades of experience managing consumer data safely. We have insights on 250 million individuals, three billion devices, and one trillion device signals. Our databases evolve as quickly as the human behavior powering them does.

Our approach to identity resolution is open and agnostic. This means we can collect and ingest nearly all available offline and online identifiers. We can do this in all types of environments, including connected TV (CTV), mobile, and cookieless. We have two types of identity resolution:

  • Offline
  • Digital

This ensures we control how known and anonymous data points are connected for consumer privacy purposes.

Identity resolution in action

Our depth of data gives our clients access to see the whole human and gain the context around singular data points.

Let’s walk through an example of our identity resolution capabilities.

Challenge

Our TV media platform client needed to measure the effectiveness of an ad campaign they were running on behalf of a leading consumer electronics brand. The TV platform wanted to be able to accurately report on which consumers made a purchase after seeing the brand’s TV commercial on their platforms.

Solution

Using our digital identity resolution services, our client could capture online purchases made on the brand’s website and link them back to a consumer profile. In addition to online transactions, our client used our offline resolution services to resolve email addresses of consumers that purchased offline, using warranty registration details.

With online and offline purchase data now resolved back to an individual ID, we also performed identity resolution on viewers in their TV subscriber files that had also been exposed to the TV commercial. This allowed us to identify subscribers that had both seen the ad and purchased a product.

We provided our client with a packaged report that they could white-label and pass along to the brand.

Results

By providing this attribution reporting to the brand, the TV platform could validate the ROI spent on their platform. The brand was extremely satisfied with the results, and they transitioned the one-off TV commercial into an ongoing campaign and purchased quarterly measurement. This led to solid recurring revenue for the TV platform.

Activation: Experiment and measure the impact

The third and final ingredient to finding the right marketing mix in a recession is activation. Experimentation is the best way to determine which channels work best for your business and provide the most ROI.

Demand-side platforms (DSP), video platforms, and sell-side targeting are three important activation channels that you should consider experimenting with.

Chart that shows changes in impressions by platform from 2019-2022

Demand-side platforms

We continue to see increased demand for environments where alternative identifiers are being transacted (like DSPs and video). Social channels are decreasing; this can be attributed to changes in privacy, security, and concerns around brand safety.

Amazon’s DSP is catching up with Google and Meta to become a top ad platform.

Video platforms

Digital video and other video channels like over-the-top (OTT) and CTV will continue to grow. Digital video will capture the most ad spend in 2023 (22.4% in 2023 vs 19.3% in 2022). Because of this, advertisers are placing bigger bets on the combination of addressable and CTV.

Sell-side targeting

Data sharing relationships will become strongest on the sell-side as we move toward consented first-party data. Ad dollars are shifting to channels that use the sell-side approach, like retail media and CTV.

Sell-side targeting enables brands to access large amounts of inventory across publishers and retailers. By getting closer to the ad inventory, advertisers can future-proof their strategies by having more access to better data signals. Direct relationships like these will be necessary as privacy regulations increase and signal loss continues.

We can help you find the right marketing mix in a recession

Now is the time to be opportunistic. Gaining share of voice during a downturn is cost-effective. Proactive marketing builds pent-up demand.

Delivering the right message in the right place at the right time means truly knowing your prospects and customers as individuals. At Experian, we bring you the highest-resolution picture of people, so you and your customers can connect with confidence.

You can turn prospects into customers with the right audience. By understanding your customers better, you can find more like them. Together we can power better results.

Find the right marketing mix

Check out our webinar, “Find the right marketing mix with rising consumer expectations.” Guest speaker, Nikhil Lai, Senior Analyst from Forrester Research, joined Experian experts Erin Haselkorn and Eden Wilbur. Watch the recording to learn:

  • New data on the complexity and uncertainty facing marketers
  • Consumer trends for 2023
  • Recommendations on finding the right channel mix and the right consumers
Three webinar speakers

Get in touch

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Sources

  1. 2022 Retail Media Ad Sales Forecast, US. Forrester Research, Inc. 2022.
  2. Forrester Analytics Consumer Technographics® Technology, Media, and Telecom Topic Insights 1 Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. 2020.
  3. CMO Pulse Survey. Forrester Research, Inc. July 2021.
  4. Forrester’s Consumer Energy And Retail Online Survey. Forrester Research, Inc.
  5. People-Led Planning Solves Customer Problems to Drive Growth. Forrester Research, Inc. August 2, 2021.

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If there’s room for improvement, now is the best time to audit, refine, and refresh your marketing strategy before the high-stakes summer and winter seasons. With identity resolution, data enrichment, data clean room collaboration, and omnichannel activation through Experian, you can clean up what’s outdated and prep your strategy for summer success! Rethink your data and identity resolution strategy Your data is foundational to your strategy and is a great place to start your marketing strategy spring cleanup. If your customer information is outdated, incomplete, or fragmented across systems, every campaign built on top of it risks underperforming. Before jumping into segmentation, activation, or partnerships, assess the health of your data and identity infrastructure. 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Like sealing and storing your seasonal belongings in airtight containers, Experian ID keeps your data clean, safe, and always ready for use. Use fresh audience insights to inform segmentation After deep-cleaning your data, enriching profiles, and resolving identities, you’ll want to ensure your segmentation reflects that renewed foundation. Just like clearing expired ingredients from your pantry, spring is an ideal time to toss outdated audience definitions and replace them with insights that are fresh, relevant, and ready to perform. With Experian’s modern audience tools, you can create smarter segments, power omnichannel strategies, and continue reaching high-value consumers even in cookieless environments. Our marketing data management tools make it easy to: Build detailed, personalized profiles using over 5,000+ behavioral and lifestyle marketing attributes that go far beyond basic demographics. 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Why retail media networks need to get offsite ASAP

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Beyond ads: The data monetization opportunity Smaller RMNs may struggle to scale ad-supported revenue, but there’s another path forward: Data-as-a-Service (DaaS). Providing anonymized, privacy-compliant audience insights to brands offers a high-margin, scalable revenue stream. In fact, some retailers are already embracing this model by licensing their data to programmatic platforms. A playbook for smaller RMNs to win off-site The future of retail media belongs to those who harness data to influence consumer behavior across all digital marketing channels. To succeed, RMNs should focus on: Moving beyond owned inventory: Activate first-party data across CTV, social, and programmatic channels to meet advertisers where their audiences are. Expanding reach through partnerships: Collaborate with identity resolution providers to maximize match rates and campaign effectiveness. Building a full-funnel offering: Position off-site retail media as a brand-building play, tapping into ad budgets that traditionally fund upper-funnel campaigns. Monetizing data, not just ads: Explore DaaS models to generate passive revenue. The time to move off-site is now Retailers that wait too long to embrace off-site activation risk falling behind. Those that expand beyond their owned inventory, invest in off-site data strategies, and build strategic partnerships will be the ones that shape the future of retail media. Experian isn’t just part of the RMN conversation. We’re driving it. Let’s talk. Connect with our team Latest posts

Apr 24,2025 by Sam Zahedi, Sr. Enterprise Partnerships Manager

Five real-life demographic segmentation examples

Not all customers are the same, so why waste your budget marketing to them like they are? McKinsey research shows that 71% of consumers want personalized shopping experiences, and 76% get frustrated when they don’t have them. That’s where demographic segmentation comes in. But what is demographic segmentation, exactly? We define it as a process that helps you categorize your audience into meaningful demographic groups so you can reach the right people with impactful custom messages. Businesses across industries are partnering with Experian to power smarter decisions and better results through solutions like demographic segmentation — but what does this look like in action? This article breaks down five real-world demographic segmentation examples, showing how businesses have worked with us to drive measurable success so you can see exactly how it can work for you. What is demographic segmentation?   Demographic segmentation involves dividing your audience into smaller, more specific groups based on shared demographics like income, education, gender, job, family status, and more to gain a more granular understanding of your brand’s target segments. The better you know your audience, the better you speak to their unique needs — and the more effective your campaigns will be, as you’ll be able to target each segment with highly personalized content that resonates. For instance, a company might market a new tech gadget to young adults in one way while promoting the same product to families with young children in a completely different way, ensuring the message speaks to each group’s lifestyle and priorities. Demographic segmentation attributes Some of the most common attributes used in demographic segmentation include: Age Each age group has different wants and needs. A new video game might catch the eye of teenagers, while a retirement plan is more likely to appeal to someone in their 50s or 60s. Gender Gender impacts preference for certain products, from fashion to gadgets, so knowing who you’re talking to helps make your marketing more relevant. Income Someone with a higher income might be more likely to purchase premium products, while someone on a budget will respond better to discounts or value-based offers. Education The level of education a person has can influence what kind of messaging will resonate with them, whether it’s complex or more straightforward. Occupation A marketing message targeting busy professionals might differ from one aimed at students or retirees. Occupation can tell you what’s important to a person in terms of their needs and lifestyle. Family Status A family with young kids likely has different priorities than a single person or a couple without children. You can adapt your messaging to be more relevant to what matters most to them, like convenience or value. Benefits of using demographic segmentation Demographic segmentation offers several valuable benefits for marketers. Here’s why it’s one of the most commonly used and effective ways to target audiences: Improved targeting and personalization: Demographic segmentation powers highly customized campaigns so you can cater to different income levels, family structures, job types, and so forth. B2C brands can provide offers based on factors like age, income, and gender, while B2B brands can target by occupation to reach decision-makers. Better product and service development: Understanding which demographics use your product or service is a great way to inform future improvements. Higher engagement: With highly customized content, you can speak directly to specific demographic groups and increase engagement. Cost efficiency: As you target the most relevant segments, you optimize your spending around the most likely buyers and will see better returns. Increased conversion and retention: Relevant, targeted messaging leads to higher conversion rates, and when people feel understood, they’ll want to keep coming back. Clearer customer insights: Demographic data provides precise, actionable insights for refining your marketing strategy. Simplicity and effectiveness: Demographic insights are immediately actionable and easy to implement, which gives you a great starting point for focused campaigns. When to use other segmentation types While demographic segmentation provides valuable consumer insights, there are times when other approaches may offer a more effective strategy: Your business provides location-dependent services. If you strictly serve a local area, geographic segmentation would be more effective in targeting customers based on location. You have access to detailed behavioral data. If you collect data on customer behavior (like browsing history or purchase patterns), behavioral segmentation would allow for more personalized targeting than demographics. You're selling high-end luxury products. While income is a useful demographic variable, factors like values, aspirations, and lifestyle better capture the desires of luxury consumers. Your target audience shares similar behaviors, regardless of demographic factors. Behavioral segmentation might offer more insight if your customers engage with your product or service based on shared behaviors rather than demographic traits. Your product or service targets specific needs or pain points. Segmenting by need or issue rather than traditional demographic variables would likely yield better results if you're offering a solution to a particular problem (like a health-related product). How our customers are using demographic segmentation to produce tangible results               Demographic segmentation is about knowing your audience and using data to create marketing strategies that drive measurable outcomes. Let’s look at some real-world use cases from brands like yours that have been successful in this effort, working with Experian to translate demographic insights into significant business growth. Use case #1: Identifying customer spending potential to boost growth for a retail chain Objective A large retail chain wanted to understand the spending potential of each customer in their stores. Their goal was to uncover and maximize untapped spending potential. Solution The large retail chain licensed Marketing Attributes to identify the top demographic factors that drove spending in the retail store the previous year. The four key drivers were: Age Income Family structure (household composition) Location/region Results By combining these attributes to create custom segments, we uncovered two valuable annual estimates: Potential spend: A conservative estimate of how much a customer could spend if they reached the top 20% of spenders within their specific demographic segment (based on data from the highest spenders). Unrealized spend: The difference between a customer's annual potential spend and their current spend. An estimate of how much more they could be spending each year. These demographic segments provided the marketing strategy the retail chain used to target $1.1 billion in unrealized spend. This revealed how much additional revenue could be captured by targeting the right customers with tailored marketing and offers through demographic segmentation. Use case #2: Helping a financial institution identify regional DE&I opportunities Objective A large financial institution needed help identifying regional diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) opportunities. They wanted to better prioritize their outreach to underserved communities in the Los Angeles area. Solution We provided the data and insights to pinpoint specific areas needing attention. We used three key indices to analyze the region: Income index: Measured each underserved economic group by comparing the percentage of low-to-moderate income consumers against the entire L.A. area. Ethnicity index: Measured the percentage of consumers by ethnicity, such as African-American, Hispanic, Asian, and others, against the entire L.A. area. Credit index: Identified potential credit disparities by looking at the average FICO score and the percentage of customers with credit accounts against the entire L.A. area. Results Our client received an analytics dashboard to track and report these metrics, providing clear, traceable data to prioritize DE&I outreach. This dashboard helped them measure progress toward more inclusive practices. Use case #3: Segmenting a health supplement ambassador program for enhanced engagement Objective A health supplement company wanted to identify specific segments within their ambassador program to provide better support and increase engagement. Solution We developed tailored customer segments to address specific needs and behaviors. These segments included: Young and independent: Younger, lower-income singles or starter households who are just beginning to establish their own lives. Families with ends to meet: Young and middle-aged families with kids who are budget-conscious, often using coupons and enjoying fast food. High-end families: Middle-aged families with kids and high incomes, financially secure big spenders who also give to charities. Empty nesters: Older households with no kids who focus on cooking at home and may have more disposable income. Results Segmenting at registration allowed for more effective communication and engagement with prospects. Customized messaging, guided by customer demographics and purchasing behaviors, improved acquisition and retention by helping the right messages reach the appropriate individuals through their preferred channels. Use case #4: Comparing customer bases: Insights for a retailer across two cities Objective A national retailer with locations in two major cities (their home base city and a recent expansion city) wanted to understand how different their customer base was in each city. They aimed to uncover key demographic and behavioral differences to refine their marketing strategies and ensure each location received the most relevant messaging and promotions. Solution We analyzed each city’s customers across a wide range of characteristics:. Demographics: The expansion city had a younger population with more families, while the home base city had an older and more established customer base. Purchasing behavior: Customers in the expansion city spent more per transaction than those in the home base city. Preferred marketing approach: Customers in the home base city were likelier to be Brand Loyalists, responding well to familiar, trust-driven messaging. Shoppers in the expansion city were Savvy Researchers who responded better to value-based content and product comparisons. Results Using these insights, the retailer tailored its marketing approach to align with each location’s customer base: Home base city: Focused on maintaining loyalty by emphasizing brand trust and highlighting long-term customer benefits. Expansion city: Positioned marketing to appeal to younger, family-focused consumers to showcase high-value purchases and competitive pricing These adjustments led to improved engagement and higher sales in both cities. Use case #5: Optimizing direct mail to help a nationwide retailer maximize impact on a limited budget Objective Facing a shrinking marketing budget, a nationwide retailer needed to refine their direct mail strategy to reach the right customers while reducing costs. Solution We developed a comprehensive dashboard summarizing two dozen recent direct mail campaigns, which allowed the retailer to: Understand the demographic composition of high-response customers across different regions. Identify key patterns in response rates, helping them pinpoint the most receptive audiences. Discover that the Power Elite Mosaic Group representing affluent, high-spending households comprised only 17% of their mailed audience but accounted for 47% of responses. Results With these insights, the retailer restructured their direct mail strategy to target the highest-performing segments. Changes like these led to a 30% reduction in mailing costs while retaining 92% of sales, proving that strategic segmentation can drive efficiency without sacrificing revenue. Explore demographic segmentation with Experian Now that we’ve defined demographic segmentation and provided real-world examples, it’s time to explore how Experian data can help you better understand and connect with your audience. Experian’s Marketing Attributes provide rich, privacy-conscious insights into consumer demographics, lifestyles, and behaviors. These insights empower marketers to personalize experiences, refine targeting strategies, and make more informed decisions. With a deeper understanding of who your customers are, you can create more meaningful, impactful campaigns that drive stronger engagement and results.  Connect with us today to see how our data and expertise can improve  your targeting, personalization, and campaign performance. Connect with us Latest posts

Apr 17,2025 by Erik Lund, Lead Consultant

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