Small Business Credit Insights
Retail sales reached a 4-year high of over $615B in December 2023 with yearly retail sales growing 4.6%. At the same time, lenders are tightening credit and businesses within the retail sector are showing signs of stress with higher late-stage delinquency rates and falling commercial credit scores. We see retailers seeking commercial credit less often, new originations slowing and lower lines over the past several months. As retail sales continue to rise so does the proportion of online retail sales. Online sales peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic and fell slightly once the lockdowns were lifted. Online retail sales remain approximately 56% higher than pre-pandemic levels and are trending up and may soon exceed 2020 levels. Growth in online retail sales has led to growth in retail returns. Retail returns peaked in 2022 at over $800MM and over 16% of total retail sales. Prior to 2021, retail returns as a percentage of retail sales averaged 8.9%, since 2021 that rate has grown to 14.6%. As returns increase so do fraudulent returns. Retailers have implemented strategies and solutions to address retail returns which resulted in a decrease in return dollars between 2022 and 2023 yet the percentage of returns that were fraudulent increased from 10.2% to 13.7% or over $100B. Increases in both legitimate and fraudulent returns are prompting retailers to identity solutions and operational strategies to slow growth across all returns. What I am watching: The U.S. economy expanded 3.3% in Q4 2023, and 2023 real GDP increased 2.5% over 2022. Strong consumer spending fueled the economy. Multiple sources are expecting The Federal Reserve to cut interest rates up to six times in 2024 with the rate cuts beginning in Q2 2024 and continuing into 2025. Lower interest rates likely means that consumer spending will continue at an elevated rate. As spending continues to increase, specifically in the retail sector, the need for commercial credit could continue to slow as cash-flows satisfy operational capital requirements. Cash on hand should begin to satisfy outstanding delinquencies, improving commercial credit scores resulting in improved access to commercial credit.
Experian and Oxford Economics Main Street Report for Q3 shows signs of slowdown despite strong Q3 expansion and changing credit conditions.
Get the latest quarterly small business credit trends Mark your calendars! Experian and Oxford Economics will discuss small business credit conditions when we present key findings in the latest Main Street Report for Q3 2023 during the Quarterly Business Credit Review. Michael Pearce, Oxford’s Lead U.S. Economist, will share his take on Experian’s most recent small business credit data and offer a macroeconomic outlook for the coming quarter. Brodie Oldham, Experian’s V.P. of Commercial Data Science, will cover commercial credit trends. Q3 2023 Main Street Report The Q3 2023 Experian/Oxford Economics Main Street report will be released on November 30th. If you are not already subscribed to thought leadership updates, be sure to sign up for updates on our Commercial Insights Hub.
New Report: Will the 2023 holiday season hinge on generosity? The latest Beyond the Trends report offers evidence it may.
Recession fears may be calming, but several indicators are still flashing for 2024. Experian and Oxford Economics have released the Q2 2023 Main Street Report, the report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as provides commentary around what specific trends mean for credit grantors and the small-business community. Report Summary During Q2, lenders adjusted underwriting criteria to limit exposure as delinquencies remained elevated for consumers and small businesses. The markets dealt with inflation above target and customers reevaluated their discretionary spending and growth investment strategies. Not all segments of the markets were impacted by environmental forces. Technology-focused companies are leading investment and growth, while logistic, utility, and healthcare struggle, Supply chain disruptions are smoothing, but lighter forecasted demand is already impacting inventory reorders. The softer demand is hitting trucking and logistic companies hard as tonnage, and mileage are lighter than forecasted as consumers return to the in-person experience and engage with eroded purchasing power. The bright spot is consumer resiliency. This prolonged spending strength is fueled by a tight labor market, wage growth, and relief in energy and food costs.Another element is savings. Dwindling savings, increased reliance on unsecured debt to support spending behavior, reassumption of monthly debt servicing obligations (student loan payments), and prolonged inflation place downward pressure on the consumer. Recession fears may be calming, but several indicators are still flashing for 2024. Download Q2 2023 Main Street Report
Gain insight on small business credit conditions by attending our quarterly webinar.
Highlights from the latest Beyond the Trends report Are you curious about the trends affecting the small business economy? The just released Summer 2023 Beyond the Trends report is packed with valuable insights based on data from over 25 million active businesses and the expert opinions from Experian’s V.P. of Commercial Data Science. This post covers some of the report's highlights, download your copy for the full scoop. A word from the report’s author: Energy Prices and Consumer Relief One of the most crucial takeaways from the report is that consumers and small businesses can expect continued relief in fuel prices in the coming months. This relief is due to the increased production of fuel in the United States and other countries. This production, coupled with other global and domestic factors, will provide more affordability in fuel costs for consumers and small businesses. This will help them manage their expenses better and, in turn, help producer costs decline, leading to more positive economic developments. Small Business Delinquency Small businesses, especially those that were propped up by stimulus money, are beginning to feel the pinch of inflation that is eating into their margins. Due to this, their savings are running lean, and many businesses are experiencing a rise in delinquencies. Delinquency rates have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Still, the report suggests that this is where they would expect delinquencies to be as the economy begins to grow gradually. Optimism Amidst Challenges Despite the lingering challenges and uncertainties brought about by the pandemic, small business owners remain optimistic. The report shows that the overall sentiment among small business owners is still positive, and they continue to seek out opportunities and innovations that could lead to growth and success. This is a positive development, and it's critical for businesses to continue to be agile and open to new opportunities and ideas. In closing: Small businesses are facing challenges such as filling job openings, higher costs, delinquencies and rising debt, but they remain optimistic and focused on opportunities for growth. By staying true to their values and fundamentals, businesses can thrive even in uncertain times. Grab your copy of the Summer 2023 Beyond the Trends report for more interesting insights on small businesses and their challenges. Download Beyond The Trends Summer 2023 Report
Gain insight on small business credit conditions by attending our quarterly webinar.
Recent news of the SVB collapse highlights the vulnerability of small banks and their crucial role in serving local communities. Small and medium-sized financial institutions should prepare for additional interest rate hikes.
