Small Business Credit Insights
New Report: Will the 2023 holiday season hinge on generosity? The latest Beyond the Trends report offers evidence it may.
Recession fears may be calming, but several indicators are still flashing for 2024. Experian and Oxford Economics have released the Q2 2023 Main Street Report, the report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as provides commentary around what specific trends mean for credit grantors and the small-business community. Report Summary During Q2, lenders adjusted underwriting criteria to limit exposure as delinquencies remained elevated for consumers and small businesses. The markets dealt with inflation above target and customers reevaluated their discretionary spending and growth investment strategies. Not all segments of the markets were impacted by environmental forces. Technology-focused companies are leading investment and growth, while logistic, utility, and healthcare struggle, Supply chain disruptions are smoothing, but lighter forecasted demand is already impacting inventory reorders. The softer demand is hitting trucking and logistic companies hard as tonnage, and mileage are lighter than forecasted as consumers return to the in-person experience and engage with eroded purchasing power. The bright spot is consumer resiliency. This prolonged spending strength is fueled by a tight labor market, wage growth, and relief in energy and food costs.Another element is savings. Dwindling savings, increased reliance on unsecured debt to support spending behavior, reassumption of monthly debt servicing obligations (student loan payments), and prolonged inflation place downward pressure on the consumer. Recession fears may be calming, but several indicators are still flashing for 2024. Download Q2 2023 Main Street Report
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Highlights from the latest Beyond the Trends report Are you curious about the trends affecting the small business economy? The just released Summer 2023 Beyond the Trends report is packed with valuable insights based on data from over 25 million active businesses and the expert opinions from Experian’s V.P. of Commercial Data Science. This post covers some of the report's highlights, download your copy for the full scoop. A word from the report’s author: Energy Prices and Consumer Relief One of the most crucial takeaways from the report is that consumers and small businesses can expect continued relief in fuel prices in the coming months. This relief is due to the increased production of fuel in the United States and other countries. This production, coupled with other global and domestic factors, will provide more affordability in fuel costs for consumers and small businesses. This will help them manage their expenses better and, in turn, help producer costs decline, leading to more positive economic developments. Small Business Delinquency Small businesses, especially those that were propped up by stimulus money, are beginning to feel the pinch of inflation that is eating into their margins. Due to this, their savings are running lean, and many businesses are experiencing a rise in delinquencies. Delinquency rates have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Still, the report suggests that this is where they would expect delinquencies to be as the economy begins to grow gradually. Optimism Amidst Challenges Despite the lingering challenges and uncertainties brought about by the pandemic, small business owners remain optimistic. The report shows that the overall sentiment among small business owners is still positive, and they continue to seek out opportunities and innovations that could lead to growth and success. This is a positive development, and it's critical for businesses to continue to be agile and open to new opportunities and ideas. In closing: Small businesses are facing challenges such as filling job openings, higher costs, delinquencies and rising debt, but they remain optimistic and focused on opportunities for growth. By staying true to their values and fundamentals, businesses can thrive even in uncertain times. Grab your copy of the Summer 2023 Beyond the Trends report for more interesting insights on small businesses and their challenges. Download Beyond The Trends Summer 2023 Report
Gain insight on small business credit conditions by attending our quarterly webinar.
Recent news of the SVB collapse highlights the vulnerability of small banks and their crucial role in serving local communities. Small and medium-sized financial institutions should prepare for additional interest rate hikes.
If you crave economic insight into small business trends, download the Spring Beyond the Trends report from Experian, a unique outlook on the economy.
This week Experian and Oxford Economics released the Q4 2022 Main Street Report. The report provides insight into the financial well-being of the small business landscape. Critical factors in the Main Street Report include business credit data (credit balances, delinquency rates, utilization rates, etc.) and macroeconomic information (employment rates, income, retail sales, industrial production, etc.). Report Highlights Consumer sentiment improved in Q4 2022, despite a softening of spending behavior. This positive behavior has contributed to the positive health and growth perspective of small businesses heading into 2023, leading to stable cash flow performance. In addition, commercial lending markets remained open and commercial delinquencies returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, higher goods and services costs may pressure spending as affordability tightens and personal cash flows thin. The US economy grew strongly in Q4 2022, but the core of the economy was soft, indicating that a repeat performance in early 2023 is unlikely. The trend in job growth has decelerated, and the Fed needs to engineer a soft landing. The Fed is pushing back against market expectations of rate cuts and is likely to hike more than expected. Download Q4 2022 Report
Get the latest quarterly small business trends Mark your calendars! Experian and Oxford Economics will present key findings in the latest Main Street Report for Q4 2022 during the Quarterly Business Credit Review. Ryan Sweet, Oxford’s U.S. Chief Economist will share his take on Experian’s most recent small business credit data and a macroeconomic outlook for the coming quarter. Brodie Oldham, Experian’s V.P. of Commercial Data Science, will cover commercial credit trends. Presenters Brodie Oldham, V.P. Commercial Data Science Experian Ryan Sweet, U.S. Chief Economist Oxford Economics Q4 2022 Main Street Report The Q4 2022 Experian/Oxford Economics Main Street report will release at the end of February. If you are not already subscribed to thought leadership updates, be sure to sign up for updates on our Commercial Insights Hub. Event Details Date: Thursday, March 9th, 2023Time: 10:00 a.m. (Pacific), 1:00 p.m. (Eastern) Why you should attend: Leading Experts on Commercial and Macro-Economic Trends Credit insights and trends on 30+ Million active businesses Ask our panel questions in real-time Industry Hot Topics Covered (Inclusive of Business Owner and Small Business Data) Commercial Insights you cannot get anywhere else Peer Insights with Interactive Polls (Participate) Discover and understand small business trends to make informed decisions Actionable takeaways based on recent credit performance Save My Seat
