Experian Commercial Pulse Report Explores Implications of Rising Premiums As the year draws to a close, one issue looms large for millions of small business owners: the rising cost of healthcare. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report, small business survival may soon hinge on a single factor — whether enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are extended into 2026. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update The Clock Is Ticking on ACA Subsidies The American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act temporarily expanded ACA subsidies, helping make coverage more affordable for millions. But those enhancements are set to expire at the end of 2025 — a policy shift that could unleash a wave of economic strain. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that if these subsidies lapse, individuals who purchase insurance through the ACA marketplace could see a 75% increase in premiums. Why does this matter so much for small businesses? Because half of all ACA marketplace enrollees are small business owners, entrepreneurs, or their employees. Coverage Is Shrinking, and Costs Keep Climbing Smaller businesses have historically been less likely to offer health insurance benefits than their larger counterparts. In 2025, only 64% of businesses with 25 to 49 employees offer health benefits — the lowest level ever recorded. And while large employers are still required by the ACA to offer coverage to full-time workers, they too are feeling the pressure. Since 2010, employers have gradually reduced the share of healthcare premiums they cover, even as deductibles have risen by 164% for single coverage plans. The result? Business owners are being squeezed from both sides — by rising insurance costs and a more financially stressed workforce. The Ripple Effects Could Be Widespread If enhanced subsidies aren’t renewed, many small businesses may have no choice but to: Shut down operations Cut staff Shift jobs into larger organizations that can offer coverage That would be a blow not only to small business dynamism but also to broader economic sectors. Reduced consumer spending could hit industries like retail, real estate, and manufacturing, while healthcare providers face payment cuts and job losses due to shrinking coverage pools. What’s Next? With Congress set to vote on subsidy extensions before the end of the year, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The outcome will likely define affordability, access, and entrepreneurship for years to come. For small business owners, now is the time to assess your coverage plans, understand your employee needs, and prepare for potential cost increases. For policymakers and industry leaders, it’s a critical moment to ensure healthcare reforms continue to support the backbone of the U.S. economy — small businesses. Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
High APR's, Steady Risk: Small Firms Stay Resilient Experian is very pleased to announce the release of the Q3 2025 Main Street Report. Brodie Oldham and Marsha Silverman will be unpacking the insights in the latest report during the Small Business Economic Review – December 9th, 10:00 a.m (Pacific), 1:00 p.m. (Eastern0 Register to Attend Webinar Report summary The holidays are here, and Black Friday sparks a surge in consumer spending, U.S. small businesses are proving remarkably resilient despite persistent economic challenges. The Experian Small Business Index shows tighter credit conditions, with modest delinquency movements, disciplined utilization rates, and an acceleration in new business starts. Download the latest report for more insight. Download Q3 Main Street Report About the Experian Main Street Report The Experian Main Street Report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary around what specific trends mean for credit grantors and the small-business community. Critical factors in the Main Street Report include a combination of business credit data (credit balances, delinquency rates, utilization rates, etc.) and macroeconomic information (employment rates, income, retail sales, industrial production, etc.). Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined in October, dropping by 5.0 points month-over-month. Oct 2025 Index Value (Oct): 36.1 Previous Month: 41.1 MoM: -5.0 YoY: -4.6 (Oct 2024 = 40.7) The Experian Small Business Index™ decreased in October by 5 points to 36.1. This drop is attributable to decreased origination activity for small businesses and small business owners, along with an increase in delinquencies for small business owners’ consumer trades. Small business trade delinquency rates have remained stable. The NFIB reported a decrease in small business optimism to 98.2 in October from 98.8 in September, and the University of Michigan reported a drop in consumer sentiment to 51.1 in November from 53.6. Due to the extended government shutdown, several of the economic indicators were not reported for October, but there were signs of positive factors in the macroeconomic environment. US employers reported hiring 283K in October, up from 117K in September, and existing home sales were up 1.2% in October to 4.1M. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The independent workforce is booming, but traditional financial services have struggled to keep pace. On a recent episode of Experian Business Chat, Michael Zevallos, co-founder of Giggle Finance, shared how his FinTech is bridging this critical gap for gig workers and micro-small businesses. Watch Our Interview The Problem: A Broken System for Independent Workers With over 10 years of experience in online lending and FinTech, Michael witnessed firsthand how the financial system failed anyone outside traditional W2 employment or large commercial businesses. During his time at OnDeck, starting in 2011, he witnessed numerous independent contractors and micro-small businesses being completely shut out of credit markets. "It wasn't just about meeting underwriting guidelines," Michael explains. "Smaller deals just didn't generate enough profitability. There were too many hands in the cookie jar—underwriters, salespeople, loan brokers, loan closers—all trying to interact with these deals." The traditional system relies on predictable W2 paychecks and consistent business histories spanning five-plus years. But gig workers operate differently. An Uber driver might work 10 hours one week, 20 the next, and zero the week after. This variability, while reflecting the freedom of independent work, made them invisible to traditional lenders. A Market Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight What started as a niche problem became impossible to ignore. In 2020, the independent workforce became the fastest-growing segment of the economy. Suddenly, tens of millions of Uber drivers, barbers, content creators, online sellers, and freelancers needed financial services that simply didn't exist for them. That's when Michael and his co-founders launched Giggle Finance. Flipping the Script on Risk Assessment Traditional credit markets look backward, reviewing historical output, past credit scores, and established track records. But as Michael points out, "It captures your past, but it doesn't capture your present or more importantly, your future." Giggle Finance partnered with Experian to develop a more nuanced approach to risk: Experian's Clear Credit Risk and Clear Inquiry go beyond traditional credit files to identify different patterns of behavior and risk signals that matter for independent workers. This allows them to go beyond a traditional credit report, predict risk more accurately, and approve the right customers. NeuralID Technology analyzes how customers interact with the application itself, detecting fraud while building confidence in legitimate applicants. The Experian SMB Marketplace connects Giggle with customers who genuinely care about and value their credit, allowing them to approve more applications with greater confidence. The result? Giggle can assess risk and approve applications in under 10 minutes, requiring just 90 days of cash flow activity to get started. "Consider a freelance marketer who could previously handle two or three clients. With AI tools for content creation and analytics, they can now manage five or six times that workload."Michael Zevallos, Co-Founder The AI Revolution in Independent Work The conversation took an interesting turn when discussing how AI is reshaping the gig economy. While most people think about AI's impact on large enterprises, Michael sees it transforming independent contractors in profound ways. "Gig workers aren't just drivers or delivery couriers anymore," he notes. "They're becoming creators, consultants, designers—more tech-savvy and capable than ever before." Consider a freelance marketer who could previously handle two or three clients. With AI tools for content creation and analytics, they can now manage five or six times that workload. Many solopreneurs are evolving into full-fledged agencies, keeping headcount low while scaling to dozens of customers. From Emergency Funding to Growth Capital This AI-enabled transformation has fundamentally shifted why customers seek financing. Historically, small business owners came to Giggle because of emergencies—they needed to make payroll or cover an unexpected expense. Now, increasingly, they're seeking growth capital. The Uber driver who becomes a limousine company owner. The logo designer who can now produce dozens of designs using AI tools. These entrepreneurs need funding to hire people, invest in equipment, and market their expanding businesses. "That structural shift is very exciting for both the customers and for us at Giggle," Michael says. Building Long-Term Relationships Giggle isn't just there for a one-time transaction. Some customers have been funded over 20 times across four years, with Giggle supporting them through various business evolutions. Uber drivers have become truckers. Others have launched limousine companies. The relationship grows as the business grows. Looking ahead, Giggle plans to expand its offerings, including a potential line of credit product for more mature businesses. The goal is to remain flexible and responsive to changing business needs at every stage. The Path Forward: Collaboration Michael sees tremendous opportunity for banks and FinTechs to work together serving the gig economy. Banks bring trust, established brands, and balance sheets. FinTechs like Giggle bring product innovation, technology, and user experience. "If you put those strengths together, you can build a financial system that truly serves gig workers, independent contractors, and micro-small businesses," he explains. Giggle's technology can underwrite customers in seconds using real-time income data and AI, while bank partnerships could provide credit at scale. A Market That's Only Getting Bigger When Giggle launched in 2020, there were approximately 30 million independent workers in the United States. Today, that number has more than doubled to 70 million. By 2030, Experian and Giggle believe the independent contractor workforce will surpass the traditional W2 economy. "Everybody's a small business. Whether it's a college student with an Etsy store, a professional with a side consulting practice, or a full-time independent contractor, the entrepreneurial spirit is becoming the norm rather than the exception."Ekaterina Gaidouk, VP of Marketing Getting Started For entrepreneurs and small business owners interested in learning more, Giggle Finance operates entirely online at www.gigglefinance.com. The application process takes less than 10 minutes, and approved customers can have funds in their bank account the same day—no human intervention required. In an age where the nature of work is rapidly evolving, Giggle Finance represents a new approach to financial services: one that recognizes independent workers not as risky outliers, but as the future of the American economy. 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As 2025 draws to a close, small business lenders, policymakers, and industry professionals are facing one big question: What’s next for small business credit and the broader economy? Join Experian’s team of commercial and macroeconomic experts for the Experian Small Business Economic Review on Tuesday, December 9th, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Pacific / 1:00 p.m. Eastern. This exclusive quarterly webinar delivers data-driven insights into small business credit performance, lending trends, and the forces shaping the U.S. economy. Whether you’re a lender, credit manager, or business strategist, this session will help you make informed, confident decisions heading into 2026. Why You Should Attend Hear from Leading ExpertsGain firsthand insights from Experian commercial credit specialists who analyze the pulse of U.S. small business health. Explore Credit Trends on Over 30 Million BusinessesSee the latest data behind payment performance, delinquencies, and credit utilization — drawn from Experian’s unmatched business credit database. Understand Industry Hot TopicsDiscover how key sectors are performing and what business owner data is revealing about economic resilience and risk. Exclusive Commercial InsightsAccess information and analysis you can’t find anywhere else, helping you anticipate market changes before they happen. Interactive Peer PollingParticipate in real-time polls and compare your perspective with peers across financial services, banking, and commercial credit. Actionable Takeaways for 2026Learn what recent small business credit trends mean for your organization — and how to adapt your strategies for the year ahead. Ask the ExpertsGet answers to your most pressing questions about how small businesses are performing and what the next quarter may bring. Stay Ahead of the Curve In an uncertain economic climate, information is your greatest advantage. The Experian Small Business Economic Review gives you the data, context, and expert perspective you need to navigate what’s next with confidence. 📅 Date: Tuesday, December 9th, 2025🕙 Time: 10:00 a.m. Pacific | 1:00 p.m. Eastern Register To Attend
As we enter the final stretch of the year, the retail sector is bracing for its most critical quarter—and the pressure is mounting. While consumer spending intentions remain historically strong, inventory levels are trailing demand, and discretionary retail continues to show signs of stress. For Chief Risk Officers managing exposure across commercial credit portfolios, this year’s holiday season demands a recalibrated lens on retail performance and credit risk. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update As you will read in the latest Commercial Pulse Report for November 11, 2025, retail sales posted a year-over-year gain of 5.0% in August, with a 0.6% increase month-over-month. Stripping out autos and gas, the underlying sales trend rose 0.7%, reflecting sustained demand across core categories. On the surface, this suggests stable footing as the industry heads into Q4. But beneath that surface, the risk picture is more nuanced. Inventory Constraints May Reshape Holiday Pricing One of the more critical data points in this month’s report is the widening gap between retail sales growth and inventory accumulation. Since June 2020, inventories and sales grew at relatively similar paces—43% and 41%, respectively. But recent months reveal a break in that pattern. As of August 2025, retail inventories have grown by just 1% since last measurement, while sales rose by 5% over the same period. This tightening inventory-to-sales ratio should be on every risk leader’s radar. It introduces not only pricing risk, with the potential for inflationary retail markups, but also operational risk for borrowers. If inventory levels fail to meet consumer demand, retailers may lose critical Q4 revenue opportunities—especially smaller or newer businesses with less flexibility in their supply chains. For lenders, this underscores the importance of assessing real-time liquidity and vendor relationships among retail clients, particularly those relying on seasonal peaks to stabilize annual margins. Discretionary Retail Faces Structural Headwinds While overall retail shows healthy top-line numbers, the discretionary retail subsector—including apparel, hobby, and department stores—presents a very different profile. Experian’s data shows that commercial credit inquiries in discretionary categories have declined sharply over the past several years. Department stores, in particular, have seen a 58% drop in credit inquiries since 2019, a signal of diminished expansion activity or tightened risk appetite among lenders and borrowers alike. What’s more, although the share of new commercial originations from retailers has remained steady at around 2%, it’s increasingly clear that capital is being allocated to more essential or diversified retail categories. This suggests a reallocation of credit risk across sub-sectors—an opportunity for CROs to reassess portfolio concentration and risk-adjusted return profiles within the broader retail segment. Credit Demand Rebounds, but Signals Are Mixed Despite these headwinds, average monthly commercial credit inquiries across the retail industry have surged 40% over the past two years. This rebound indicates growing interest in capital access, likely driven by inventory financing and pre-holiday preparations. Additionally, average loan and line sizes have stabilized above $30,000 since April 2025, reversing a downward trend that saw originations dip below $28,000 in early 2024. On one hand, this suggests improved confidence and capital deployment. On the other, it raises questions about underwriting discipline and borrower leverage heading into a period of economic uncertainty. CROs should scrutinize whether this rise in loan volume aligns with stronger business fundamentals—or if it reflects deferred risk accumulation masked by short-term revenue goals. Stable Scores, Shifting Strategies Interestingly, commercial credit scores in discretionary retail have remained stable, even as inquiries decline. This points to relatively contained delinquency risk—at least in the near term—and suggests that while activity may be slowing, the borrowers still active in the market remain creditworthy. However, risk managers should treat this with caution. Stable scores in a declining volume environment can be misleading if the overall pool of applicants is narrowing to only the most creditworthy businesses. It may not reflect the latent risk in smaller or emerging retailers who are opting out of new credit altogether due to cost, confidence, or eligibility barriers. In this context, periodic stress testing and forward-looking scenario planning become critical. What happens to score stability if Q4 revenues disappoint or if inventory shortages impact gross margins more severely than expected? Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail Reality The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 53.6 in October, a full 24% below the level one year ago. This kind of sentiment pullback often precedes reduced discretionary spending, even if intent surveys, like the NRF’s October Holiday Consumer Survey, show consumers planning to spend at near-record levels. For CROs, the discrepancy between consumer optimism and sentiment data should raise a red flag. If expectations do not materialize into real revenue, lenders with exposure to retail—especially smaller, inventory-sensitive borrowers—could face elevated delinquency risks in Q1 2026. Key Takeaways for CROs Inventory management is the fulcrum this holiday season. Underestimating inventory strain could lead to both missed revenue and cash flow risk. Credit demand is up, but not equally distributed. Focus on where capital is flowing—and where it’s being withheld. Stable credit scores should not overshadow weakening sentiment and softening discretionary activity. Stress test your retail portfolio against a holiday season that underperforms expectations, particularly for smaller or newer businesses. Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ shows a modest improvement, rising 3.7 points month-over-month. Sep 2025 Index Value (Aug): 41.1 Previous Month: 37.4 MoM: +3.7 YoY: -3.8 (Sep 2024 = 44.9) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased in September by 3.7 points to 41.1, the second straight month of increases. The Fed lowered interest rates for a second time in late October in response to weakening job reports from ADP but indicated another rate cut in December is not certain due to rising inflation. Inflation increased from 2.9% to 3.0% in September, and core inflation decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%. Rent and food inflation were both steady, and energy prices increased 2.8% from a year ago. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment stayed nearly even as the NFIB small business optimism index fell slightly to 98.8 in September from 100.8 in August. New businesses continue to open at a historically high rate, indicating continued optimism by entrepreneurs. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update Below, we explore how sector-specific credit trends, employment data, and market activity are evolving, and what they may mean for lenders, suppliers, and investors as we head into the final quarter of 2025. Slowing Growth in the Logistics Sector The U.S. logistics sector has experienced remarkable growth over the past decade. Between 2013 and 2023, the number of private logistics businesses doubled, peaking in Q4 2023. Since then, business formation has slowed, and for the first time in years, the number of logistics firms has declined—down by 2%. Employment trends echo this slowdown. Between April 2020 and July 2022, logistics employment rose 25%. Since then, growth has nearly stalled, increasing by just 1.5%. This softening suggests that many logistics firms are adjusting operations and tightening resources in response to shifting demand and rising costs. Inventory Pressure and LMI Performance The Logistics Managers Index (LMI)—a diffusion index that tracks key logistics components like transportation, inventory, and warehousing—fell to 57.4 in September 2025. While still in expansion territory (above 50), it’s the lowest reading since March, indicating cooling momentum across the sector. Inventory levels remain elevated, but rising inventory costs are beginning to pressure future planning. Since December 2023, inventory costs have steadily increased. Retailers typically adjust inventory levels in response to cost changes with a lag, meaning elevated costs could soon lead to leaner inventories—potentially pulling the LMI down further. Warehousing utilization is also up, and prices have followed. As available space tightens, warehousing costs are rising, adding to the financial strain for logistics firms. This dynamic has the potential to further compress margins and reduce cash flow flexibility for small- and mid-sized operators. Transportation Trends: Warning Signs Ahead Transportation—a cornerstone of the logistics network—is showing early signs of contraction. Transportation utilization fell to 50 in September, right on the edge of entering contraction territory. A decline in utilization typically leads to an increase in transportation capacity, as seen in the most recent data, and declining transportation prices. Lower prices benefit shippers but challenge carriers, particularly smaller players who operate on tighter margins. With costs rising across warehousing and inventory management, declining transportation revenue could tip the balance for many firms, increasing financial vulnerability. Credit Demand and Originations Continue to Fall Experian’s credit data paints a picture of declining demand for commercial credit within logistics. Since the pandemic, the percentage of monthly credit originations in the logistics sector has dropped sharply—from 4.5% to just 0.5%. This suggests businesses are becoming more cautious about taking on new debt. Interestingly, while originations have declined, outstanding balances have remained steady, and in warehousing, they’ve even exceeded pre-pandemic levels. This could reflect longer repayment cycles, reduced cash flow, or delayed investment decisions—all potential risk flags. Trucking: Dominant but at Risk Within the logistics sector, trucking remains dominant, accounting for 82% of all open commercial credit trades. This segment relies heavily on commercial cards, which now make up 79% of open credit trades. These cards are often the first credit instrument used by new businesses, making them a leading indicator of early-stage credit performance. While the prevalence of commercial cards reflects flexibility, it also comes with limitations. Lower credit limits and higher interest rates can create challenges during periods of cash flow strain, especially for operators managing fuel, maintenance, and payroll costs. Rising Delinquencies and Declining Credit Scores Perhaps the most concerning trend in this month’s report is the increase in late-stage delinquencies within the logistics sector. Since mid-2021, delinquencies have shifted from early-stage (1–30 days past due) to more serious late-stage (91+ days past due) balances. In August 2025, 1–30 day delinquencies accounted for just 20 basis points of total past-due balances, while late-stage delinquencies accounted for 47 basis points—nearly double the 2019 average. As these deeper delinquencies mount, average commercial credit scores are declining, despite slight improvements earlier in 2024. This trend is especially critical for lenders and suppliers. A shift toward aged receivables can signal liquidity challenges, operational inefficiencies, or broader sector stress. For businesses operating on thin margins or in highly competitive sub-industries, rising delinquencies could signal a tipping point. What to Watch Going Forward The outlook for the logistics sector remains mixed. While growth hasn’t reversed completely, the combination of rising costs, falling credit originations, and growing delinquencies indicates rising risk, particularly in transportation and warehousing. Stakeholders should closely monitor: Changes in LMI component trends Late-stage delinquency rates across business segments Shifts in credit utilization and origination patterns Warehouse pricing and utilization metrics These signals can offer early insight into shifting risk exposure across commercial portfolios. Explore More Insights Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
Rising costs are continuing to squeeze American wallets — and perhaps nowhere is that more apparent than in the food sector. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report (October 14, 2025), food prices are having a profound impact on where and how consumers choose to eat. With the Consumer Price Index for food rising 3.2% year-over-year, both full-service and limited-service restaurants are feeling the heat. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update Specifically, Full-Service Restaurant prices have surged 4.6%, while Limited-Service locations have seen more modest increases of 3.2%, the lowest pace in over a year. As price-sensitive consumers pull back on discretionary spending, Experian’s data shows a notable shift toward more affordable dining options—or a return to eating at home. Credit Demand Is Strong, But Approval May Be Slipping Even with shifting consumer habits, restaurants are not sitting idle. Experian’s credit data reveals that both Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurants are actively seeking commercial credit — a likely sign of increased working capital needs in the face of inflation and tighter margins. However, access to that credit appears to be narrowing. Commercial inquiries from Full-Service Restaurants have risen to 1.7x pre-pandemic levels. Limited-Service Restaurants follow closely at 1.5x. Yet the number of credit-active Limited-Service establishments has declined, suggesting either a slowdown in approvals or reduced eligibility. This contrast implies that demand for financing is rising faster than approval rates, especially for smaller or newer businesses trying to stay competitive amid rising costs. Shrinking Credit Limits, Rising Utilization Restaurants are not only facing tighter access but also leaner terms. Average credit limits for new commercial card accounts have fallen significantly since 2021: Full-Service Restaurants: Down from $11,500 to under $6,000 Limited-Service Restaurants: Also trending downward Groceries (used as a benchmark for at-home eating): Down from $13,000 to $9,000 At the same time, credit utilization rates are climbing — an early warning sign that businesses are relying more heavily on revolving credit to manage day-to-day operations. Full-Service Restaurants now use 31.9% of available credit, up 4.6 points since 2023. Limited-Service Restaurants trail close behind at 31.8%. Groceries come in at 28.8%, showing increased pressure even in the at-home dining sector. Taken together, this combination of lower credit limits and higher utilization points to a tightening credit environment, which may be challenging for restaurants to navigate through the holiday and post-holiday seasons. Commercial Risk Trends Tell a Mixed Story One of the more nuanced insights in Experian’s report is how different restaurant types are weathering the current environment from a risk perspective: Full-Service Restaurants show only a modest decline in commercial risk scores (–0.8 points), suggesting relative resilience despite financial pressures. Limited-Service Restaurants, interestingly, saw a +1.4 point improvement in risk scores—indicating increased stability and better adaptation to current market conditions. In contrast, grocery retailers—the benchmark for “eat-at-home” sectors—experienced a -1.8 point drop in their risk scores, highlighting greater strain in that segment. This divergence reflects a growing consumer shift toward lower-cost food options like quick-service dining, potentially at the expense of both full-service restaurants and grocers. What It Means for Lenders and Business Strategy These trends carry significant implications for financial institutions, credit providers, and small business advisors: Rising inquiries + shrinking credit limits = greater risk of liquidity stress Stronger risk scores for Limited-Service = opportunity for more targeted lending or product offerings Elevated utilization rates = need to monitor credit performance closely, especially for revolving credit For business owners and operators, understanding these dynamics is crucial to building resilience in a volatile market. Strategic decisions around financing, menu pricing, staffing, and technology adoption will likely make or break performance through the next few quarters. Conclusion: A Sector Under Pressure — but not out While economic headwinds persist, the restaurant industry shows remarkable adaptability. Whether it’s shifting toward leaner operations, targeting lower-income consumers, or increasing credit usage to bridge cash flow gaps, the sector is evolving in real-time. As always, Experian’s insights provide a critical lens into these movements—helping lenders, business leaders, and policymakers make smarter decisions amid uncertainty. For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report. ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ shows a modest rebound, improving 4.6 points month-over-month. August 2025 Index Value (Aug): 37.4 Previous Month: 32.8 MoM: +4.6 YoY: -8.8 (Aug 2024 = 46.2) The Experian Small Business Index™ rebounded in August, up 4.6 points to 37.4. After slowing in the first half of the year, early data suggests the US economy is set to expand at a solid rate in the third quarter. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and signaled two additional 25bp cuts by the end of the year, which should help stimulate economic growth. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in August to 100.8 from 100.3, the highest level since January 2025, on forecasts of better-than-expected growth in the upcoming months. However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment continued to decline, as unemployment edged up slightly and job growth has been weak. Entrepreneurs continue to see this as a good time to start a business, with 474K new businesses launched in August, up from 471K in July. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
In today’s digital economy, businesses face a dual challenge: onboarding legitimate customers quickly while keeping fraudsters out. As commercial fraud becomes more sophisticated, the need for integrated fraud and credit scoring has never been more urgent. Scoring systems that unify these two dimensions—creditworthiness and fraud risk—are transforming how financial institutions, insurers, and commercial lenders evaluate new accounts and protect their portfolios. Why does scoring for credit and fraud really matter for B2B creditors? The surge in small business formation, artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and mutating forms of fraud have reshaped the risk landscape for business creditors in a myriad of ways. The spike in new business formation since 2020 is a trend that’s expected to remain permanently elevated, with the adoption of AI as a catalyst for small business startups and growth. U.S. Census Bureau data shows that since July 2020, a seasonally adjusted average of 441K new businesses opened each month, 51% higher than the pre-pandemic 2018–2019 monthly average. In July, 2025, 471K new businesses launched, an increase of 13K (2.9%) from June 2025. The trend of new small business formation remains elevated. This could be a result of lower startup costs from AI adoption, allowing new businesses to scale with less expense. As AI has scaled and evolved, fraud in the business arena has scaled too. Most small businesses lack credit history, and traditional risk models struggle to evaluate these businesses, let alone check for fraud signals. Traditional models are no longer sufficient to evaluate this evolving risk environment, calling for a more holistic approach to risk evaluation. How does bridging the gap in credit demand create a path for fraudsters to exploit bigger payouts? • 46% of small business loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud (e.g., misrepresented revenue or business details).1• AI-driven scams are projected to cause $40 billion in losses by 2027.1• 80% of fraud events now occur via digital channels such as online or mobile banking.1 Businesses that have been active for less than 2 years account for a growing portion of newly opened commercial accounts. They averaged 27% of new accounts in 2020 and grew to over 40% of new accounts in 2023 and 2024.Experian, Commercial Pulse Report, 2025 The data from Experian’s Commercial Pulse Report, underscores a critical truth: traditional credit scoring alone is no longer sufficient in determining whether a business customer is creditworthy. Fraud scoring adds a vital layer of insight, helping to predict the likelihood of early payment defaults, identify synthetic identity elements, and prevent business impersonation before they become costly problems. Creating a unified approach to scoring applicants for both credit and fraud during the account onboarding process, or at other key milestones, is a vital strategy to identify creditworthy business customers. Experian’s Fraud Investigation Report, available within BusinessIQ 2.0, exemplifies the power of combining fraud and credit scoring. It integrates three best-in-class tools:• Multipoint Verification: a next-generation business verification tool powered by blended credit bureau data and non-traditional sources to calculate risk with explainable, machine-learned models, to provide creditors with better insights on their commercial customers.• Business ID Theft Score™: this score leverages the breadth and depth of Experian’s 28M+ business records to reliably predict the probability of identity theft and third-party fraud in commercial accounts to help streamline application processing.• Commercial First-Party Fraud Score: a machine-learned model that uses blended consumer and commercial attributes to deliver an actionable score that reliably predicts the likelihood of first payment default and credit abuse in commercial applications. Together, these scores are combined into one report to provide a holistic view of both the individual and the business entity at account origination. This “one partner, one platform” approach streamlines onboarding and risk evaluation, enabling faster, more confident decisions. Experian’s scoring tools are designed to meet the unique challenges of each industry: Financial institutions and banksThese organizations face high volumes of account applications and must balance speed with security. Integrated scoring helps detect synthetic identities and credit abuse early, reducing exposure to default and fraud losses. FinTech and online lendersOperating in fast-paced digital environments, FinTech firms benefit from real-time fraud scoring that flags suspicious email usage, mismatched business data, and identity inconsistencies—without slowing down onboarding. Insurance providersFraud scoring supports underwriting by identifying high-risk entities before policy issuance. For teams, it provides post-sale fraud indicators that streamline investigations and improve claims accuracy. Merchant cash advance and equipment finance firmsThese sectors often deal with small businesses and startups, where traditional credit data may be limited. Fraud scoring fills the gap by verifying business legitimacy and ownership connections. Manufacturing, construction, and freight logistics firmsThese industries rely heavily on trade credit. Integrated scoring helps differentiate between legitimate businesses and shell companies, reducing the risk of non-payment and fraud. Telecom, energy, and utility providersWith a large customer base and recurring billing, these sectors benefit from fraud scoring that flags anomalies in business identity and payment behavior—helping prevent revenue leakage. Why do data silos within organizations lead to more fraud risk? One of the biggest challenges in fraud detection is fragmentation of data. Risk signals are often scattered across systems, requiring manual reviews and cross-referencing that slow down operations and introduce inconsistencies. Experian’s Fraud Investigation Report breaks down these silos, delivering consistent, actionable insights into a single report that can be compared easily along with the business’ credit report. This not only improves operational efficiency but also enhances the ability to audit and fulfill compliance requirements— a critical need for regulated industries like banking and insurance. How to gain speed in approving new customer accounts and credit terms The ability to quickly approve or deny credit terms is important, especially when evaluating new accounts. Experian’s Fraud Investigation Report can reduce fraud evaluation time by up to 50%, eliminating the need to consult multiple sources or conduct manual searches. Now firms can review trusted information from a single report instead of relying on Google to verify business legitimacy, users get instant indicators like vacant address fields, recent email use across multiple credit applications, and mismatched email age versus company age. These insights are powered by machine-learned models that differentiate between first-party, third-party, and synthetic fraud with high precision. How scoring for both fraud and credit risk can support strategic goals across the entire organization Experian’s fraud and credit scores can deliver a wide range of benefits across the organization. C-suite executives need a comprehensive view of enterprise risk to help make strategic plans that will affect the future of their firm. A combined approach to scoring commercial customers can provide a consistent framework for evaluating fraud and credit risk, supporting strategic decisions and regulatory compliance. Directors or Vice Presidents of fraud and credit are tasked with reducing losses and improving operational efficiency. Integrated scoring helps them identify fraud earlier, reduce manual reviews, and streamline workflows. Finding more efficiencies in these areas can allow firms to hold less cash in reserve for bad debt or enable more budget to be put towards innovation to stay competitive. Analytical, data sciences, or finance executives can benefit from scored data that can be fed into predictive models and financial forecasts, offering laser precise accuracy. With better data that offers unified insights, analytics teams can better segment risk, optimize portfolios, and support data-driven planning. Commercial underwriters and fraud investigation teams can benefit from pre-sale fraud indicators that improve policy accuracy. Investigation teams can use post-sale scoring to investigate claims and detect fraud patterns more efficiently, removing the risk of human error and reducing time spent on each claim. Credit managers and portfolio analysts rely on consistent scoring to assess repayment likelihood and monitor portfolio health. Unified reports reduce ambiguity and support confident decision-making. Procurement and purchasing leaders need to verify supplier legitimacy. Fraud scoring helps ensure that vendors are who they claim to be—reducing supply chain risk. Inconsistent scoring can lead to biased decisions, missed fraud signals, and lost revenue. Experian’s unified report ensures that credit managers receive the same set of insights across every activity, removing ambiguity and supporting confident evaluations. Consistency in data is especially valuable for users less familiar with signs of fraud. Visual design elements can help professionals at any level of seniority making the The proof of the Fraud Investigation Report’s value can be seen within the real-world impact it creates. Experian’s scoring model isn’t just theoretical—it delivers measurable results with 1.6x fraud detection vs. credit scores alone, 80% business verification rate as a standalone solution, and up to 59% fraud capture at a 20% review rate. These metrics demonstrate how combined scoring for fraud and credit within a single report, can dramatically improve fraud detection while maintaining a smooth customer experience. Why do you need a layered B2B credit strategy that checks for fraud? Layered threats require a layered strategy to combat risk, and the most effective defense is multi-dimensional. Using a score for credit risk is just one layer—but it’s foundational. When combined with scoring for fraud signals that include identity verification, behavioral analytics, and orchestration tools, a robust framework that adapts to evolving threats is created. Layered strategies also allow for dynamic friction—applying the right level of scrutiny at the right time. This ensures that legitimate customers enjoy a seamless experience while suspicious activity is flagged for deeper review. The future of fraud prevention lies in automation and predictive intelligence. Experian’s scoring models are built to scale, leveraging explainable machine learned models to continuously improve accuracy and adapt to new fraud patterns. As businesses embrace digital transformation, integrated scoring will become a cornerstone of smart onboarding, risk management, and customer trust. Fraud and credit scoring are no longer separate disciplines—they’re two sides of the same coin. By unifying these insights, businesses can detect fraud faster, make smarter credit decisions, and build resilient portfolios. Experian’s Fraud Investigation Report is leading the way, offering a streamlined, data-rich solution that empowers organizations to act with speed, confidence, and precision. Ready to see it in action? Watch the Demo
Insights from Experian’s September 16, 2025 Commercial Pulse Report This week's Experian Commercial Pulse Report shines a spotlight on one of the most critical yet vulnerable sectors in the U.S. economy: construction. The industry has experienced significant growth over the last seven years, but fresh data reveals mounting signs of financial stress that commercial lenders and Chief Risk Officers should be closely monitoring. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update Construction Growth Reaches New Heights Since 2018, Construction GDP has increased by 53%, reaching $1.34 trillion in Q1 2025. The sector now makes up 4.48% of total U.S. GDP, just below its pandemic-era peak in mid-2020. At the same time, construction employment has rebounded strongly, with more than 8.3 million Americans now working in the sector — a 9% increase over pre-pandemic levels. On the surface, construction appears to be thriving. But a closer look reveals signs of market cooling: Building permits have declined, suggesting future construction volume may slow. Housing inventory has returned to pre-pandemic levels, leading to rising vacancy rates. Material costs — especially for insulation and drywall — remain stubbornly high, placing added pressure on operating margins. These trends reflect a shift in the construction cycle — from expansion to potential contraction — and the financial effects are already showing up in commercial credit behavior. Credit Stress Is Building Experian’s data highlights a credit environment that is tightening for construction businesses: The number of active commercial accounts has plateaued, signaling reduced borrowing activity. Credit inquiries have been rising since late 2021, showing that more businesses are seeking financing — but lenders appear increasingly cautious. The number of new open trades has declined, indicating less credit is being extended even as demand grows. Most notably, delinquency rates are climbing. As shown in the chart above, the 90+ day delinquency rate rose sharply in 2022 and, after a brief cooling period, resumed an upward trend in 2024. As of May 2025, the rate has reached 0.07%, its highest point in several years. This aligns with a broader concern: construction businesses are facing more financial pressure, even as headline indicators remain strong. What This Means for Risk Leaders For CROs, credit strategists, and commercial underwriters, these trends serve as early warning signals. Delinquency rates and inquiry volume should be integrated into portfolio monitoring systems as forward-looking indicators. Underwriting score thresholds may need adjustment for construction-related businesses, especially those showing increased credit-seeking behavior without corresponding trade activity. The broader credit environment is tightening, and construction — historically a cyclical industry — is often among the first to feel the impact of shifting economic conditions. By monitoring these sector-specific metrics in real time, lenders can get ahead of emerging risks before they spread to adjacent sectors like real estate, materials, and heavy equipment. Construction is still contributing significantly to economic growth — but that growth is coming under strain. Rising costs, declining credit access, and increasing delinquencies are creating a complex risk profile that demands close attention. For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report. ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
