In the just-released Experian Commercial Pulse Report, we focus on a growth small business sector – Education Services, which enjoys healthy, consistent formation, and stable credit management. For Chief Risk Officers navigating an uncertain lending landscape, the question isn't just where growth is happening—it's where growth aligns with manageable risk. The Education Services sector presents exactly that combination, and the numbers tell a compelling story that contradicts conventional wisdom about small business exposure. Watch The Commercial Pulse Update A Sector Transformation Driven by Economic Realities The fundamentals driving Education Services' growth aren't temporary market anomalies; they're structural shifts in how young adults approach career preparation. With youth unemployment rates persistently running more than twice the general population, and young workers facing heightened job security concerns, the demand for skills-based training has fundamentally changed. The traditional four-year degree path is losing its popularity. While bachelor's degree holders still experience lower unemployment rates than those with associate's degrees, the gap has narrowed considerably in recent years. Meanwhile, the escalating cost of traditional college education is accelerating a pivot toward trade schools and specialized training programs, a trend reflected in rising post-secondary enrollment, particularly in trade education. This isn't speculation. Through November 2025, nearly 76,000 new education services businesses have opened— with 7,653 opening in November, the highest level on record. This represents a 205% increase in just two decades. Employment in the sector crossed 4 million for the first time in July 2025. These aren't vanity metrics; they signal sustained, fundamental demand. The Small Business Concentration: Risk or Resilience? Here's where traditional risk models might flash warning signals: businesses with fewer than 10 employees now represent nearly 80% of all educational services firms, up from 63% in 2019. For most sectors, such a high concentration of small businesses would trigger heightened scrutiny and tighter credit controls. But Education Services is defying that conventional risk calculus. Despite this shift in concentration toward smaller operators, credit performance metrics tell a different story—one of discipline and stability that should inform how risk leaders approach this segment. Credit Performance That Challenges Assumptions The credit behavior within Education Services reveals patterns that warrant a fresh risk assessment framework. Commercial credit cards dominate the sector, representing over 78% of monthly originations—a preference that actually provides lenders with valuable visibility into cash flow patterns and working capital management. What's particularly noteworthy: while many industries have experienced tightening credit limits over the past several years, average commercial card limits in Education Services have increased 23% since 2019, now exceeding $19,000. This expansion isn't resulting in overleveraged borrowers. Utilization rates remain relatively low, and average commercial credit scores have held stable throughout this rapid expansion phase. This combination, expanding credit access paired with stable utilization and consistent credit performance, signals something important: disciplined financial management even among newer, smaller operators. For risk leaders, this should prompt a critical question: are your current underwriting models properly calibrated to identify opportunity in this segment, or are they applying broad small business assumptions that miss sector-specific strength signals? Strategic Implications for Risk Leaders The Education Services growth story presents three strategic imperatives for Chief Risk Officers: First, industry-specific risk strategies deliver differentiated insight. Blanket approaches to small business risk assessment will systematically underprice opportunity in sectors like Education Services while potentially overexposing you elsewhere. The stable credit performance despite small business concentration demonstrates that sectoral dynamics matter more than size alone. Second, continuous monitoring beats static underwriting. The rapid composition shift in Education Services—from 63% to 80% small business concentration in just six years illustrates how quickly sector profiles can evolve. Risk strategies built on outdated sector snapshots will either miss growth opportunities or accumulate unrecognized exposure. Real-time portfolio monitoring and dynamic risk modeling aren't optional anymore. Third, growth doesn't automatically mean elevated risk. The Education Services sector challenges the reflexive association between rapid expansion and deteriorating credit quality. In this case, expansion has coincided with improving credit access and stable performance. The key differentiator? Understanding the fundamental demand drivers and recognizing when growth is structural rather than speculative. The Broader Context: Skills-Based Economy Acceleration Education Services isn't growing in isolation. It's responding to, and enabling, a broader economic transformation toward skills-based career pathways. As this transformation accelerates, the sector's role becomes increasingly central to workforce development, suggesting sustained long-term demand rather than cyclical opportunities. For financial institutions, this means Education Services represents more than a near-term growth play. It's a sector aligned with multi-year economic trends, serving businesses that fill a critical gap in how workers prepare for evolving job markets. Moving Forward The Education Services sector demonstrates that growth opportunities and manageable risk profiles can coexist, when you have the right analytical framework to identify them. For Chief Risk Officers, the question is whether your institution's risk infrastructure can recognize these nuances or whether you're leaving opportunity on the table. As 76,000 new businesses enter this sector and credit performance remains stable, the window for strategic positioning won't remain open indefinitely. Competitors with more sophisticated sector-level risk analytics will identify and capture these borrowers first. The data is clear. The opportunity is measurable. The question for risk leaders is simple: what's your strategy for Education Services? ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

The Experian Small Business Index™ improved by 15.9 points month-over-month and 9.1 points Year-Over-Year Nov 2025 Index Value (Nov): 52.0 Previous Month: 36.1 MoM: 15.9 YoY: 9.1 (Nov 2024 = 42.9) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased substantially in November by 15.9 points to 52.0. This also represents a YoY increase of 9.1 points. There was increased business activity with the end of the government shutdown in November. Business owners saw an increase in new account openings and approval rates, along with an increased number of new business formations. Negative credit conditions improved, with reductions in delinquencies and utilization. The Small Business Optimism Index from NFIB increased to 99.0 from 98.2 in October. There was an increase in the number of new business applications to 535K from 499K in October, the most in a single month since July 2020. Inflation fell in November, to 2.7% from 3.0% in September, the lowest level since July. November unemployment was up to 4.6% from 4.4% in September. The inflation and unemployment rates are likely to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions as they consider whether additional rate cuts are warranted in 2026 after a 25 bps drop in December. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts

Experian Commercial Pulse Report Explores Implications of Rising Premiums As the year draws to a close, one issue looms large for millions of small business owners: the rising cost of healthcare. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report, small business survival may soon hinge on a single factor — whether enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are extended into 2026. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update The Clock Is Ticking on ACA Subsidies The American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act temporarily expanded ACA subsidies, helping make coverage more affordable for millions. But those enhancements are set to expire at the end of 2025 — a policy shift that could unleash a wave of economic strain. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that if these subsidies lapse, individuals who purchase insurance through the ACA marketplace could see a 75% increase in premiums. Why does this matter so much for small businesses? Because half of all ACA marketplace enrollees are small business owners, entrepreneurs, or their employees. Coverage Is Shrinking, and Costs Keep Climbing Smaller businesses have historically been less likely to offer health insurance benefits than their larger counterparts. In 2025, only 64% of businesses with 25 to 49 employees offer health benefits — the lowest level ever recorded. And while large employers are still required by the ACA to offer coverage to full-time workers, they too are feeling the pressure. Since 2010, employers have gradually reduced the share of healthcare premiums they cover, even as deductibles have risen by 164% for single coverage plans. The result? Business owners are being squeezed from both sides — by rising insurance costs and a more financially stressed workforce. The Ripple Effects Could Be Widespread If enhanced subsidies aren’t renewed, many small businesses may have no choice but to: Shut down operations Cut staff Shift jobs into larger organizations that can offer coverage That would be a blow not only to small business dynamism but also to broader economic sectors. Reduced consumer spending could hit industries like retail, real estate, and manufacturing, while healthcare providers face payment cuts and job losses due to shrinking coverage pools. What’s Next? With Congress set to vote on subsidy extensions before the end of the year, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The outcome will likely define affordability, access, and entrepreneurship for years to come. For small business owners, now is the time to assess your coverage plans, understand your employee needs, and prepare for potential cost increases. For policymakers and industry leaders, it’s a critical moment to ensure healthcare reforms continue to support the backbone of the U.S. economy — small businesses. Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

High APR's, Steady Risk: Small Firms Stay Resilient Experian is very pleased to announce the release of the Q3 2025 Main Street Report. Brodie Oldham and Marsha Silverman will be unpacking the insights in the latest report during the Small Business Economic Review – December 9th, 10:00 a.m (Pacific), 1:00 p.m. (Eastern0 Register to Attend Webinar Report summary The holidays are here, and Black Friday sparks a surge in consumer spending, U.S. small businesses are proving remarkably resilient despite persistent economic challenges. The Experian Small Business Index shows tighter credit conditions, with modest delinquency movements, disciplined utilization rates, and an acceleration in new business starts. Download the latest report for more insight. Download Q3 Main Street Report About the Experian Main Street Report The Experian Main Street Report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary around what specific trends mean for credit grantors and the small-business community. Critical factors in the Main Street Report include a combination of business credit data (credit balances, delinquency rates, utilization rates, etc.) and macroeconomic information (employment rates, income, retail sales, industrial production, etc.). Related Posts

The Experian Small Business Index™ declined in October, dropping by 5.0 points month-over-month. Oct 2025 Index Value (Oct): 36.1 Previous Month: 41.1 MoM: -5.0 YoY: -4.6 (Oct 2024 = 40.7) The Experian Small Business Index™ decreased in October by 5 points to 36.1. This drop is attributable to decreased origination activity for small businesses and small business owners, along with an increase in delinquencies for small business owners’ consumer trades. Small business trade delinquency rates have remained stable. The NFIB reported a decrease in small business optimism to 98.2 in October from 98.8 in September, and the University of Michigan reported a drop in consumer sentiment to 51.1 in November from 53.6. Due to the extended government shutdown, several of the economic indicators were not reported for October, but there were signs of positive factors in the macroeconomic environment. US employers reported hiring 283K in October, up from 117K in September, and existing home sales were up 1.2% in October to 4.1M. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts

The independent workforce is booming, but traditional financial services have struggled to keep pace. On a recent episode of Experian Business Chat, Michael Zevallos, co-founder of Giggle Finance, shared how his FinTech is bridging this critical gap for gig workers and micro-small businesses. Watch Our Interview The Problem: A Broken System for Independent Workers With over 10 years of experience in online lending and FinTech, Michael witnessed firsthand how the financial system failed anyone outside traditional W2 employment or large commercial businesses. During his time at OnDeck, starting in 2011, he witnessed numerous independent contractors and micro-small businesses being completely shut out of credit markets. "It wasn't just about meeting underwriting guidelines," Michael explains. "Smaller deals just didn't generate enough profitability. There were too many hands in the cookie jar—underwriters, salespeople, loan brokers, loan closers—all trying to interact with these deals." The traditional system relies on predictable W2 paychecks and consistent business histories spanning five-plus years. But gig workers operate differently. An Uber driver might work 10 hours one week, 20 the next, and zero the week after. This variability, while reflecting the freedom of independent work, made them invisible to traditional lenders. A Market Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight What started as a niche problem became impossible to ignore. In 2020, the independent workforce became the fastest-growing segment of the economy. Suddenly, tens of millions of Uber drivers, barbers, content creators, online sellers, and freelancers needed financial services that simply didn't exist for them. That's when Michael and his co-founders launched Giggle Finance. Flipping the Script on Risk Assessment Traditional credit markets look backward, reviewing historical output, past credit scores, and established track records. But as Michael points out, "It captures your past, but it doesn't capture your present or more importantly, your future." Giggle Finance partnered with Experian to develop a more nuanced approach to risk: Experian's Clear Credit Risk and Clear Inquiry go beyond traditional credit files to identify different patterns of behavior and risk signals that matter for independent workers. This allows them to go beyond a traditional credit report, predict risk more accurately, and approve the right customers. NeuralID Technology analyzes how customers interact with the application itself, detecting fraud while building confidence in legitimate applicants. The Experian SMB Marketplace connects Giggle with customers who genuinely care about and value their credit, allowing them to approve more applications with greater confidence. The result? Giggle can assess risk and approve applications in under 10 minutes, requiring just 90 days of cash flow activity to get started. "Consider a freelance marketer who could previously handle two or three clients. With AI tools for content creation and analytics, they can now manage five or six times that workload."Michael Zevallos, Co-Founder The AI Revolution in Independent Work The conversation took an interesting turn when discussing how AI is reshaping the gig economy. While most people think about AI's impact on large enterprises, Michael sees it transforming independent contractors in profound ways. "Gig workers aren't just drivers or delivery couriers anymore," he notes. "They're becoming creators, consultants, designers—more tech-savvy and capable than ever before." Consider a freelance marketer who could previously handle two or three clients. With AI tools for content creation and analytics, they can now manage five or six times that workload. Many solopreneurs are evolving into full-fledged agencies, keeping headcount low while scaling to dozens of customers. From Emergency Funding to Growth Capital This AI-enabled transformation has fundamentally shifted why customers seek financing. Historically, small business owners came to Giggle because of emergencies—they needed to make payroll or cover an unexpected expense. Now, increasingly, they're seeking growth capital. The Uber driver who becomes a limousine company owner. The logo designer who can now produce dozens of designs using AI tools. These entrepreneurs need funding to hire people, invest in equipment, and market their expanding businesses. "That structural shift is very exciting for both the customers and for us at Giggle," Michael says. Building Long-Term Relationships Giggle isn't just there for a one-time transaction. Some customers have been funded over 20 times across four years, with Giggle supporting them through various business evolutions. Uber drivers have become truckers. Others have launched limousine companies. The relationship grows as the business grows. Looking ahead, Giggle plans to expand its offerings, including a potential line of credit product for more mature businesses. The goal is to remain flexible and responsive to changing business needs at every stage. The Path Forward: Collaboration Michael sees tremendous opportunity for banks and FinTechs to work together serving the gig economy. Banks bring trust, established brands, and balance sheets. FinTechs like Giggle bring product innovation, technology, and user experience. "If you put those strengths together, you can build a financial system that truly serves gig workers, independent contractors, and micro-small businesses," he explains. Giggle's technology can underwrite customers in seconds using real-time income data and AI, while bank partnerships could provide credit at scale. A Market That's Only Getting Bigger When Giggle launched in 2020, there were approximately 30 million independent workers in the United States. Today, that number has more than doubled to 70 million. By 2030, Experian and Giggle believe the independent contractor workforce will surpass the traditional W2 economy. "Everybody's a small business. Whether it's a college student with an Etsy store, a professional with a side consulting practice, or a full-time independent contractor, the entrepreneurial spirit is becoming the norm rather than the exception."Ekaterina Gaidouk, VP of Marketing Getting Started For entrepreneurs and small business owners interested in learning more, Giggle Finance operates entirely online at www.gigglefinance.com. The application process takes less than 10 minutes, and approved customers can have funds in their bank account the same day—no human intervention required. In an age where the nature of work is rapidly evolving, Giggle Finance represents a new approach to financial services: one that recognizes independent workers not as risky outliers, but as the future of the American economy. 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As 2025 draws to a close, small business lenders, policymakers, and industry professionals are facing one big question: What’s next for small business credit and the broader economy? Join Experian’s team of commercial and macroeconomic experts for the Experian Small Business Economic Review on Tuesday, December 9th, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Pacific / 1:00 p.m. Eastern. This exclusive quarterly webinar delivers data-driven insights into small business credit performance, lending trends, and the forces shaping the U.S. economy. Whether you’re a lender, credit manager, or business strategist, this session will help you make informed, confident decisions heading into 2026. Why You Should Attend Hear from Leading ExpertsGain firsthand insights from Experian commercial credit specialists who analyze the pulse of U.S. small business health. Explore Credit Trends on Over 30 Million BusinessesSee the latest data behind payment performance, delinquencies, and credit utilization — drawn from Experian’s unmatched business credit database. Understand Industry Hot TopicsDiscover how key sectors are performing and what business owner data is revealing about economic resilience and risk. Exclusive Commercial InsightsAccess information and analysis you can’t find anywhere else, helping you anticipate market changes before they happen. Interactive Peer PollingParticipate in real-time polls and compare your perspective with peers across financial services, banking, and commercial credit. Actionable Takeaways for 2026Learn what recent small business credit trends mean for your organization — and how to adapt your strategies for the year ahead. Ask the ExpertsGet answers to your most pressing questions about how small businesses are performing and what the next quarter may bring. Stay Ahead of the Curve In an uncertain economic climate, information is your greatest advantage. The Experian Small Business Economic Review gives you the data, context, and expert perspective you need to navigate what’s next with confidence. 📅 Date: Tuesday, December 9th, 2025🕙 Time: 10:00 a.m. Pacific | 1:00 p.m. Eastern Register To Attend

As we enter the final stretch of the year, the retail sector is bracing for its most critical quarter—and the pressure is mounting. While consumer spending intentions remain historically strong, inventory levels are trailing demand, and discretionary retail continues to show signs of stress. For Chief Risk Officers managing exposure across commercial credit portfolios, this year’s holiday season demands a recalibrated lens on retail performance and credit risk. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update As you will read in the latest Commercial Pulse Report for November 11, 2025, retail sales posted a year-over-year gain of 5.0% in August, with a 0.6% increase month-over-month. Stripping out autos and gas, the underlying sales trend rose 0.7%, reflecting sustained demand across core categories. On the surface, this suggests stable footing as the industry heads into Q4. But beneath that surface, the risk picture is more nuanced. Inventory Constraints May Reshape Holiday Pricing One of the more critical data points in this month’s report is the widening gap between retail sales growth and inventory accumulation. Since June 2020, inventories and sales grew at relatively similar paces—43% and 41%, respectively. But recent months reveal a break in that pattern. As of August 2025, retail inventories have grown by just 1% since last measurement, while sales rose by 5% over the same period. This tightening inventory-to-sales ratio should be on every risk leader’s radar. It introduces not only pricing risk, with the potential for inflationary retail markups, but also operational risk for borrowers. If inventory levels fail to meet consumer demand, retailers may lose critical Q4 revenue opportunities—especially smaller or newer businesses with less flexibility in their supply chains. For lenders, this underscores the importance of assessing real-time liquidity and vendor relationships among retail clients, particularly those relying on seasonal peaks to stabilize annual margins. Discretionary Retail Faces Structural Headwinds While overall retail shows healthy top-line numbers, the discretionary retail subsector—including apparel, hobby, and department stores—presents a very different profile. Experian’s data shows that commercial credit inquiries in discretionary categories have declined sharply over the past several years. Department stores, in particular, have seen a 58% drop in credit inquiries since 2019, a signal of diminished expansion activity or tightened risk appetite among lenders and borrowers alike. What’s more, although the share of new commercial originations from retailers has remained steady at around 2%, it’s increasingly clear that capital is being allocated to more essential or diversified retail categories. This suggests a reallocation of credit risk across sub-sectors—an opportunity for CROs to reassess portfolio concentration and risk-adjusted return profiles within the broader retail segment. Credit Demand Rebounds, but Signals Are Mixed Despite these headwinds, average monthly commercial credit inquiries across the retail industry have surged 40% over the past two years. This rebound indicates growing interest in capital access, likely driven by inventory financing and pre-holiday preparations. Additionally, average loan and line sizes have stabilized above $30,000 since April 2025, reversing a downward trend that saw originations dip below $28,000 in early 2024. On one hand, this suggests improved confidence and capital deployment. On the other, it raises questions about underwriting discipline and borrower leverage heading into a period of economic uncertainty. CROs should scrutinize whether this rise in loan volume aligns with stronger business fundamentals—or if it reflects deferred risk accumulation masked by short-term revenue goals. Stable Scores, Shifting Strategies Interestingly, commercial credit scores in discretionary retail have remained stable, even as inquiries decline. This points to relatively contained delinquency risk—at least in the near term—and suggests that while activity may be slowing, the borrowers still active in the market remain creditworthy. However, risk managers should treat this with caution. Stable scores in a declining volume environment can be misleading if the overall pool of applicants is narrowing to only the most creditworthy businesses. It may not reflect the latent risk in smaller or emerging retailers who are opting out of new credit altogether due to cost, confidence, or eligibility barriers. In this context, periodic stress testing and forward-looking scenario planning become critical. What happens to score stability if Q4 revenues disappoint or if inventory shortages impact gross margins more severely than expected? Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail Reality The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 53.6 in October, a full 24% below the level one year ago. This kind of sentiment pullback often precedes reduced discretionary spending, even if intent surveys, like the NRF’s October Holiday Consumer Survey, show consumers planning to spend at near-record levels. For CROs, the discrepancy between consumer optimism and sentiment data should raise a red flag. If expectations do not materialize into real revenue, lenders with exposure to retail—especially smaller, inventory-sensitive borrowers—could face elevated delinquency risks in Q1 2026. Key Takeaways for CROs Inventory management is the fulcrum this holiday season. Underestimating inventory strain could lead to both missed revenue and cash flow risk. Credit demand is up, but not equally distributed. Focus on where capital is flowing—and where it’s being withheld. Stable credit scores should not overshadow weakening sentiment and softening discretionary activity. Stress test your retail portfolio against a holiday season that underperforms expectations, particularly for smaller or newer businesses. Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

The Experian Small Business Index™ shows a modest improvement, rising 3.7 points month-over-month. Sep 2025 Index Value (Aug): 41.1 Previous Month: 37.4 MoM: +3.7 YoY: -3.8 (Sep 2024 = 44.9) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased in September by 3.7 points to 41.1, the second straight month of increases. The Fed lowered interest rates for a second time in late October in response to weakening job reports from ADP but indicated another rate cut in December is not certain due to rising inflation. Inflation increased from 2.9% to 3.0% in September, and core inflation decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%. Rent and food inflation were both steady, and energy prices increased 2.8% from a year ago. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment stayed nearly even as the NFIB small business optimism index fell slightly to 98.8 in September from 100.8 in August. New businesses continue to open at a historically high rate, indicating continued optimism by entrepreneurs. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts

As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update Below, we explore how sector-specific credit trends, employment data, and market activity are evolving, and what they may mean for lenders, suppliers, and investors as we head into the final quarter of 2025. Slowing Growth in the Logistics Sector The U.S. logistics sector has experienced remarkable growth over the past decade. Between 2013 and 2023, the number of private logistics businesses doubled, peaking in Q4 2023. Since then, business formation has slowed, and for the first time in years, the number of logistics firms has declined—down by 2%. Employment trends echo this slowdown. Between April 2020 and July 2022, logistics employment rose 25%. Since then, growth has nearly stalled, increasing by just 1.5%. This softening suggests that many logistics firms are adjusting operations and tightening resources in response to shifting demand and rising costs. Inventory Pressure and LMI Performance The Logistics Managers Index (LMI)—a diffusion index that tracks key logistics components like transportation, inventory, and warehousing—fell to 57.4 in September 2025. While still in expansion territory (above 50), it’s the lowest reading since March, indicating cooling momentum across the sector. Inventory levels remain elevated, but rising inventory costs are beginning to pressure future planning. Since December 2023, inventory costs have steadily increased. Retailers typically adjust inventory levels in response to cost changes with a lag, meaning elevated costs could soon lead to leaner inventories—potentially pulling the LMI down further. Warehousing utilization is also up, and prices have followed. As available space tightens, warehousing costs are rising, adding to the financial strain for logistics firms. This dynamic has the potential to further compress margins and reduce cash flow flexibility for small- and mid-sized operators. Transportation Trends: Warning Signs Ahead Transportation—a cornerstone of the logistics network—is showing early signs of contraction. Transportation utilization fell to 50 in September, right on the edge of entering contraction territory. A decline in utilization typically leads to an increase in transportation capacity, as seen in the most recent data, and declining transportation prices. Lower prices benefit shippers but challenge carriers, particularly smaller players who operate on tighter margins. With costs rising across warehousing and inventory management, declining transportation revenue could tip the balance for many firms, increasing financial vulnerability. Credit Demand and Originations Continue to Fall Experian’s credit data paints a picture of declining demand for commercial credit within logistics. Since the pandemic, the percentage of monthly credit originations in the logistics sector has dropped sharply—from 4.5% to just 0.5%. This suggests businesses are becoming more cautious about taking on new debt. Interestingly, while originations have declined, outstanding balances have remained steady, and in warehousing, they’ve even exceeded pre-pandemic levels. This could reflect longer repayment cycles, reduced cash flow, or delayed investment decisions—all potential risk flags. Trucking: Dominant but at Risk Within the logistics sector, trucking remains dominant, accounting for 82% of all open commercial credit trades. This segment relies heavily on commercial cards, which now make up 79% of open credit trades. These cards are often the first credit instrument used by new businesses, making them a leading indicator of early-stage credit performance. While the prevalence of commercial cards reflects flexibility, it also comes with limitations. Lower credit limits and higher interest rates can create challenges during periods of cash flow strain, especially for operators managing fuel, maintenance, and payroll costs. Rising Delinquencies and Declining Credit Scores Perhaps the most concerning trend in this month’s report is the increase in late-stage delinquencies within the logistics sector. Since mid-2021, delinquencies have shifted from early-stage (1–30 days past due) to more serious late-stage (91+ days past due) balances. In August 2025, 1–30 day delinquencies accounted for just 20 basis points of total past-due balances, while late-stage delinquencies accounted for 47 basis points—nearly double the 2019 average. As these deeper delinquencies mount, average commercial credit scores are declining, despite slight improvements earlier in 2024. This trend is especially critical for lenders and suppliers. A shift toward aged receivables can signal liquidity challenges, operational inefficiencies, or broader sector stress. For businesses operating on thin margins or in highly competitive sub-industries, rising delinquencies could signal a tipping point. What to Watch Going Forward The outlook for the logistics sector remains mixed. While growth hasn’t reversed completely, the combination of rising costs, falling credit originations, and growing delinquencies indicates rising risk, particularly in transportation and warehousing. Stakeholders should closely monitor: Changes in LMI component trends Late-stage delinquency rates across business segments Shifts in credit utilization and origination patterns Warehouse pricing and utilization metrics These signals can offer early insight into shifting risk exposure across commercial portfolios. Explore More Insights Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance: ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

Rising costs are continuing to squeeze American wallets — and perhaps nowhere is that more apparent than in the food sector. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report (October 14, 2025), food prices are having a profound impact on where and how consumers choose to eat. With the Consumer Price Index for food rising 3.2% year-over-year, both full-service and limited-service restaurants are feeling the heat. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update Specifically, Full-Service Restaurant prices have surged 4.6%, while Limited-Service locations have seen more modest increases of 3.2%, the lowest pace in over a year. As price-sensitive consumers pull back on discretionary spending, Experian’s data shows a notable shift toward more affordable dining options—or a return to eating at home. Credit Demand Is Strong, But Approval May Be Slipping Even with shifting consumer habits, restaurants are not sitting idle. Experian’s credit data reveals that both Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurants are actively seeking commercial credit — a likely sign of increased working capital needs in the face of inflation and tighter margins. However, access to that credit appears to be narrowing. Commercial inquiries from Full-Service Restaurants have risen to 1.7x pre-pandemic levels. Limited-Service Restaurants follow closely at 1.5x. Yet the number of credit-active Limited-Service establishments has declined, suggesting either a slowdown in approvals or reduced eligibility. This contrast implies that demand for financing is rising faster than approval rates, especially for smaller or newer businesses trying to stay competitive amid rising costs. Shrinking Credit Limits, Rising Utilization Restaurants are not only facing tighter access but also leaner terms. Average credit limits for new commercial card accounts have fallen significantly since 2021: Full-Service Restaurants: Down from $11,500 to under $6,000 Limited-Service Restaurants: Also trending downward Groceries (used as a benchmark for at-home eating): Down from $13,000 to $9,000 At the same time, credit utilization rates are climbing — an early warning sign that businesses are relying more heavily on revolving credit to manage day-to-day operations. Full-Service Restaurants now use 31.9% of available credit, up 4.6 points since 2023. Limited-Service Restaurants trail close behind at 31.8%. Groceries come in at 28.8%, showing increased pressure even in the at-home dining sector. Taken together, this combination of lower credit limits and higher utilization points to a tightening credit environment, which may be challenging for restaurants to navigate through the holiday and post-holiday seasons. Commercial Risk Trends Tell a Mixed Story One of the more nuanced insights in Experian’s report is how different restaurant types are weathering the current environment from a risk perspective: Full-Service Restaurants show only a modest decline in commercial risk scores (–0.8 points), suggesting relative resilience despite financial pressures. Limited-Service Restaurants, interestingly, saw a +1.4 point improvement in risk scores—indicating increased stability and better adaptation to current market conditions. In contrast, grocery retailers—the benchmark for “eat-at-home” sectors—experienced a -1.8 point drop in their risk scores, highlighting greater strain in that segment. This divergence reflects a growing consumer shift toward lower-cost food options like quick-service dining, potentially at the expense of both full-service restaurants and grocers. What It Means for Lenders and Business Strategy These trends carry significant implications for financial institutions, credit providers, and small business advisors: Rising inquiries + shrinking credit limits = greater risk of liquidity stress Stronger risk scores for Limited-Service = opportunity for more targeted lending or product offerings Elevated utilization rates = need to monitor credit performance closely, especially for revolving credit For business owners and operators, understanding these dynamics is crucial to building resilience in a volatile market. Strategic decisions around financing, menu pricing, staffing, and technology adoption will likely make or break performance through the next few quarters. Conclusion: A Sector Under Pressure — but not out While economic headwinds persist, the restaurant industry shows remarkable adaptability. Whether it’s shifting toward leaner operations, targeting lower-income consumers, or increasing credit usage to bridge cash flow gaps, the sector is evolving in real-time. As always, Experian’s insights provide a critical lens into these movements—helping lenders, business leaders, and policymakers make smarter decisions amid uncertainty. For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report. ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts

The Experian Small Business Index™ shows a modest rebound, improving 4.6 points month-over-month. August 2025 Index Value (Aug): 37.4 Previous Month: 32.8 MoM: +4.6 YoY: -8.8 (Aug 2024 = 46.2) The Experian Small Business Index™ rebounded in August, up 4.6 points to 37.4. After slowing in the first half of the year, early data suggests the US economy is set to expand at a solid rate in the third quarter. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and signaled two additional 25bp cuts by the end of the year, which should help stimulate economic growth. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in August to 100.8 from 100.3, the highest level since January 2025, on forecasts of better-than-expected growth in the upcoming months. However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment continued to decline, as unemployment edged up slightly and job growth has been weak. Entrepreneurs continue to see this as a good time to start a business, with 474K new businesses launched in August, up from 471K in July. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts