If a new company has not yet established a credit history, many lenders turn to the business owner’s personal credit to evaluate risk. But does personal credit alone paint an accurate picture of a new business’s risk? Is there a more optimal way to determine how creditworthy a young company may be?

To find answers, Experian® randomly selected the credit files of 2.5 million U.S. small-business owners and compared them with the records of 1 million consumers. We then looked at the credit history of both groups, as well as key demographic data such as age, education and income. We also reviewed the number of open trades, delinquencies, bankruptcies and business survival rates. The results of this research are explained in this whitepaper.

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Outstanding performance in the third quarter is a great headline focused on the resiliency of the American consumer. Business confidence and financials benefited from a consumer confidence boost as market conditions appeared to improve as inflation receded. Consumer spending remained elevated, supporting small business cashflow health, but a rising percentage of that consumer spend originated from leveraged consumer credit products. Creditors have been monitoring the rise in unsecured debt utilization and putting into action exposure limiting underwriting criteria.

Lenders are tightening underwriting criteria due to high delinquencies among consumers and small businesses amid inflation. People are revising their spending and investment plans. While technology companies thrive, sectors like logistics, utilities, and healthcare face challenges. Supply chain issues are easing, but reduced demand affects inventory orders, impacting trucking and logistics with lower tonnage and mileage. Consumers show resilience, bolstered by a strong job market, wage growth, and lower energy and food costs. However, dwindling savings and increased reliance on unsecured debt, along with the resumption of debt obligations like student loans, and ongoing inflation, put pressure on consumers. Recession fears are easing, but concerns for 2024 remain.