Executive summary
The June 2025 housing market trends report presents a nuanced view of the U.S. mortgage and home equity landscape. As the seasonal uptick in buying activity unfolds, lenders and market participants must navigate emerging risk patterns while capitalizing on renewed growth in both mortgage and home equity originations. This analysis highlights the current trends in delinquencies, loan origination dynamics, and marketing strategies that are shaping the sector’s trajectory.
Housing market trends analysis
First mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are increasing, particularly in later stages of delinquency. Home equity delinquencies remain low, signaling stability in that segment. Mortgage originations are up, with refinances beginning to recover. HELOC direct mail offers have surpassed first mortgage offers, driven by aggressive marketing and AVM-based personalization. Lenders using property data in marketing outperform peers relying on volume alone. Strategic focus for lenders: tighten risk analytics, integrate data into marketing, and adopt AVM-based personalization.
Key takeaways
- Rising mortgage risk
- Delinquencies at 30 and 120 DPD levels are rising.
- Foreclosure rates continue to increase.
- Risk mitigation requires more than credit data—property and predictive analytics are essential.
- Resilience in home equity – HELOC delinquencies are decreasing.
- Late-stage delinquencies remain stable, offering a favorable outlook for home equity portfolios.
- Mortgage growth returns – First mortgage originations have rebounded, led by purchases and a moderate refinance resurgence.
- HELOC market momentum – Over 49 million HELOC offers sent in April, surpassing first mortgage outreach.
- AVM-enhanced offers are proving more effective than generic prescreen campaigns.
Market analysis
Delinquency and risk patterns
Delinquency and foreclosure metrics indicate an upward shift in credit risk, particularly in first mortgage portfolios. Data trends show that early-stage delinquencies—30 Days Past Due (DPD)—are steadily increasing. More concerning is the continued progression of loans from 90 DPD to 120 DPD and ultimately into foreclosure, suggesting that borrower distress is not isolated but escalating through the default pipeline.
This sustained deterioration in performance warrants enhanced vigilance from servicers and risk managers. Integrated portfolio monitoring, credit-based scoring overlays, and property data models offer a more proactive approach to identifying and mitigating risk.
In contrast, home equity products, especially Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), show relative resilience. Both early- and late-stage HELOC delinquencies have declined or stabilized in recent months. This contrast may reflect the different borrower profiles or underlying risk exposure between first mortgage and home equity borrowers.
Mortgage and refinance activity
After a protracted period of rate-driven suppression, mortgage originations—across both purchase and refinance—have rebounded. May data indicates a pronounced uptick in origination volume, aligning with the traditional summer buying season. Refinance volumes, while still below pandemic-era highs, are also demonstrating a modest recovery.
This increase suggests that a combination of stable interest rates, softening home prices in some markets, and pent-up demand is reactivating segments of the borrower base. Lenders should be prepared for a shift in borrower preferences and the possible re-entry of rate-sensitive consumers.
Competitive dynamics in home equity
Home equity is becoming an increasingly contested market. Over 49 million HELOC offers were distributed in April, exceeding the volume of first mortgage offers. This surge indicates a strong shift in lender focus toward homeowners with significant untapped equity.
Innovations in marketing strategy are also emerging. AVM-based estimates of home equity are becoming a differentiator. Personalized, data-enriched offers are proving more effective than high-volume, generic campaigns. Lenders that integrate credit and property data into their prescreen and Invitation to Apply (ITA) strategies see higher engagement and response rates.
FAQs
Q: What’s driving the spike in HELOC marketing?
A: Intense competition and significant untapped home equity are driving lenders to issue record-high HELOC offers, increasingly using AVM-based personalization to boost conversion.
Q: Are mortgage delinquencies a growing concern?
A: Yes. Delinquencies across 30, 90, and 120 DPD categories are rising, signaling borrower distress and emphasizing the need for predictive risk analytics.
Q: Which lenders are leading in marketing outreach?
A: Discover, Figure, and Pennymac are prominent mailers, with Figure standing out for AVM-integrated home equity offers that provide borrowers with personalized estimates.
Q: What should lenders do now?
A: Focus on AVM and credit data integration in marketing and risk modeling, and adopt data-driven targeting over pure volume-based outreach strategies.
Strategic recommendations
- Risk Management: Leverage predictive analytics and AVM-based models to detect early signs of borrower distress.
- Marketing Efficiency: Transition from volume-centric campaigns to personalized, data-driven offers.
- Channel Strategy: Integrate digital and direct mail outreach to enhance borrower engagement.
- Competitive Positioning: Benchmark against data-savvy competitors to refine market strategy.
Conclusion
The June 2025 housing market trends reveal a complex interplay of rising mortgage risk and expanding opportunity in home equity. Lenders that embrace data integration and strategic targeting will be best positioned to adapt and grow.
For deeper insights and data solutions across the mortgage lifecycle, Experian Mortgage and Housing offers resources that support informed decision-making and operational efficiency. Visit our website to learn more about Experian’s mortgage solutions and download our latest white paper to learn more about how 2025 is the year of the HELOC.
