Small Businesses are showing fiscal discipline and resilience amid changing conditions.
April 2025
- Index Value (Apr):43.2
- Previous Month:47.2
- MoM:-4.0
- YoY:-11.9(Apr 2024 = 55.1)
April marked the first month reflecting the impact of the broad tariffs announced on April 2nd. While the index experienced a decline, the decrease was modest due to the continued resilience of the U.S. economy. Unemployment remained nearly stable at 4.2%, average hourly wages continued to rise, and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages stayed below 7% for the 17th consecutive week. Additionally, the inflation rate increased by just 2.3% in April, the lowest rise since February 2021.
Some metrics showed signs of deterioration, contributing to the drop in the index. The ongoing shifts in tariff policy have created uncertainty among consumers and small business owners. Consumer sentiment fell to 52.2 in April, down from 57.0 in March and 32% lower than a year ago. Small business optimism declined to 95.8 in April, marking the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. Despite these economic challenges, new businesses continued to form at high rates, with 449,508 new business applications filed in April, nearly matching March’s figures and still well above pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, tariff relief with China brought welcome news to many small businesses still reliant on those imports.
The Experian Small Business Index™ shows a modest improvement, rising 3.7 points month-over-month. Sep 2025 Index Value (Aug): 41.1 Previous Month: 37.4 MoM: +3.7 YoY: -3.8 (Sep 2024 = 44.9) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased in September by 3.7 points to 41.1, the second straight month of increases. The Fed lowered interest rates for a second time in late October in response to weakening job reports from ADP but indicated another rate cut in December is not certain due to rising inflation. Inflation increased from 2.9% to 3.0% in September, and core inflation decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%. Rent and food inflation were both steady, and energy prices increased 2.8% from a year ago. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment stayed nearly even as the NFIB small business optimism index fell slightly to 98.8 in September from 100.8 in August. New businesses continue to open at a historically high rate, indicating continued optimism by entrepreneurs. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ shows a modest rebound, improving 4.6 points month-over-month. August 2025 Index Value (Aug): 37.4 Previous Month: 32.8 MoM: +4.6 YoY: -8.8 (Aug 2024 = 46.2) The Experian Small Business Index™ rebounded in August, up 4.6 points to 37.4. After slowing in the first half of the year, early data suggests the US economy is set to expand at a solid rate in the third quarter. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and signaled two additional 25bp cuts by the end of the year, which should help stimulate economic growth. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in August to 100.8 from 100.3, the highest level since January 2025, on forecasts of better-than-expected growth in the upcoming months. However, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment continued to decline, as unemployment edged up slightly and job growth has been weak. Entrepreneurs continue to see this as a good time to start a business, with 474K new businesses launched in August, up from 471K in July. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined month-over-month by almost 12 points. July 2025 Index Value (Jul): 32.8 Previous Month: 44.7 MoM: -11.9 YoY: -16.8 (Jul 2024 = 49.6) The Experian Small Business Index™ declined in July to 32.8, down 11.9 points. Small businesses still look healthy, but business owners are starting to show some stress in their consumer credit profiles. The primary driver was tighter lending conditions, which reduced approval rates and increased delinquencies for consumers. Pressure has built on the small business owner due to rising student loan defaults and a softer labor market, which is beginning to erode consumer credit health. Inflation has remained even, with slight upticks in some sectors and slight decreases in others. Rent inflation continues a downward trend; it was 3.8% in June, down from 3.9% in May. Producer price inflation was also down 0.4 points to 2.3%, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Some sectors had inflation rise, with food inflation up slightly from May to 3.0% from 2.9%, overall inflation was up 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May, and core inflation increased from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June. The savings rate decreased to 4.5% in May, down from 4.9% in April, as consumers continue to spend. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
