Commercial Pulse Report | 05/19/2025
The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals a complex but fascinating picture of the U.S. economy and the small business landscape. According to Javier Rodriquez-Paiva’s research, while headline indicators suggest moderation, like slowing inflation and a steady unemployment rate, beneath the surface, disparities in recovery and credit performance continue to deepen. Here’s a breakdown of this week’s major findings.
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A Cooling Economy: GDP Contracts, Sentiment Slides
The most attention-grabbing headline this cycle is the 0.3% contraction in Q1 GDP, marking the first quarterly decline since Q1 2022. The Bureau of Economic Analysis attributes the dip to a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs, which disrupted the trade balance and weighed on growth.
Meanwhile, inflation continues to cool. March’s inflation rate landed at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February, while core inflation—excluding food and energy—fell to 2.8%, its lowest level since 2021. This may offer some relief to consumers and businesses alike, but consumer sentiment dropped sharply to 52.2 in April, reflecting growing unease. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and the lowest reading since July 2022.
Labor Market Holds Steady
Despite the GDP dip, the job market appears stable. April’s unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while the U.S. added 177,000 jobs—a slight slowdown from March, but still a positive sign. Wages rose again, averaging \$31.06 per hour, indicating that employers continue to compete for talent even as other indicators cool.
Small Business Index Ticks Up, Optimism Holds
The Experian Small Business Index rose to 47.2 in March, up from 45.4 in February. That’s the third consecutive monthly increase, signaling moderate optimism among small business owners. However, the index remains 9.3 points below last year’s level, reflecting broader economic uncertainties.
Still, the environment for new ventures remains strong. In March alone, over 452,000 new business applications were filed—a 6.4% increase from February. The rate of business starts has remained significantly elevated since the pandemic, a trend that continues to bolster the small business ecosystem.
K-Shaped Recovery: The Uneven Road Ahead
One of the most critical insights from this report is the continued evidence of a K-shaped recovery—where higher-income households and affluent communities are thriving, while lower-income groups and businesses face mounting financial strain.
Experian’s research shows:
- The top 1% of households have seen income grow over 500% since 1979, while the bottom 20% have only grown by 31%.
- The top 10% hold over 67% of total U.S. wealth, while the bottom 50% hold just 2.4%.
- Retailers in affluent ZIP codes are showing stronger credit performance, including lower delinquency rates, better credit scores, and fewer derogatory filings compared to their peers in low-to-moderate income areas.
These patterns aren’t just numbers—they highlight structural challenges for economic equity and raise questions about how future policy and credit access strategies should evolve.
What This Means for Lenders and Business Leaders
For commercial lenders and business decision-makers, the takeaway is clear: understanding the geographic and demographic context of credit risk has never been more important. The divergence in recovery paths demands more nuanced credit assessment and customer support strategies.
With new business formation still booming and small business owners showing resilience, there are real opportunities—but also growing gaps in financial well-being that could impact portfolio performance over time.
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- ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
- ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Experian Commercial Pulse Report reveals decline in total number of ecommerce businesses, strong revenue, and fewer credit inquiries.
Commercial Pulse Report | 6/17/2025 Economic uncertainty is often seen as a deterrent to growth, but for many Americans, it’s become the fuel for a fresh start. As inflation wavers and traditional employment structures shift, more individuals are stepping out of corporate roles to pursue business ownership. In this week's Commercial Pulse Report, we take a closer look at what's driving this wave of entrepreneurial activity. Gen X Leads the Charge Toward Self-Employment According to Guidant Financial's 2025 Small Business Trends report, Generation X is leading the charge. Many in this age group are opting out of traditional career paths, motivated by a desire for autonomy, flexibility, and a more purposeful work life. According to Guidant’s report, Gen X holds the largest share of U.S. small business ownership, with a significant portion of these entrepreneurs transitioning from established careers. What’s driving this shift? Dissatisfaction with corporate life and a strong desire to be one’s own boss are leading motivators. It’s a story of experienced professionals reevaluating priorities and seeking more control over their financial future. And it appears to be a fulfilling decision—75% of small business owners report being happy with their choice to go independent. Retirement Savings Power New Ventures A surprising—but telling—statistic in ’s report: 53% of new business owners used 401(k) retirement funds to launch their ventures. This trend underscores a growing willingness to invest personal wealth into long-term entrepreneurial aspirations. Known as Rollovers as Business Startups (ROBS), this approach allows individuals to use retirement funds without early withdrawal penalties. It’s a bold move, signaling high confidence among business owners—but also highlighting gaps in access to traditional funding channels. Entrepreneurs are taking on more personal risk, in part because institutional capital isn't always accessible to young businesses. Interestingly, 56% of all new businesses are either newly founded or existing independent ventures, showing a diverse range of entrepreneurial approaches—from solo startups to revitalized legacy brands. The Credit Dillema for Young Businesses Experian’s data shows that businesses under two years old account for more than 50% of new commercial card originations. These companies are opting for credit cards over term loans due to fewer barriers to entry, but this often means lower funding limits. Meanwhile, newer businesses face steeper challenges securing traditional loans. They now represent just 15% of term loan originations, down from 27% in 2022. For lenders, policy makers, and service providers, these trends underscore the need to rethink how we support emerging businesses. From alternative funding tools to better credit-building pathways, there’s a growing opportunity to empower America’s newest entrepreneurs. Stay Ahead with Experian ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
Commercial Pulse Report | 6/3/2025 The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report provides a sharp look at how recent economic shifts are impacting small businesses across the U.S., with a special focus on supply chains, specifically the transportation industry, which is experiencing fallout from changing trade policies. Are industry-specific models effective in mitigating risk? Inflation, Employment, and Consumer Outlook April inflation cooled slightly to 2.3%, marking the lowest increase since February 2021. While this might suggest some price relief, the overall sentiment in the market tells a more cautious story. Unemployment held steady at 4.2%, and wages continued to climb, signaling that the labor market remains resilient. However, optimism is waning. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 95.8, its lowest point since October 2024. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell to 50.8 in early May, reflecting growing concern over the economic outlook. Together, these indicators suggest that although the job market remains stable, confidence — both among businesses and consumers — is eroding. A Dip in the Small Business Index April saw a drop in Experian’s Small Business Index, falling from 47.2 to 43.2, with a year-over-year decline of 11.9 points. This marks the first decline in four months and highlights the early impact of broad tariffs announced on April 2nd. While the dip was modest, it reflects growing pressure on small businesses as they navigate cost increases, supply chain uncertainty, and changing consumer behavior. Encouragingly, despite the turbulence, several economic indicators remained steady. Mortgage rates held below 7% for the 17th straight week, and business formation remained strong with over 449,000 new businesses launched in April. Transportation Industry: First to Feel the Hit This month’s report shines a spotlight on the transportation sector, which has been uniquely sensitive to recent tariff activity. As a major driver of the U.S. economy — contributing 3.3% to GDP and employing over 4% of the workforce — transportation is often the first industry to feel the ripple effects of economic change. And the response was swift. After trade tariffs were announced in early April, shipping volumes from China to the U.S. dropped by more than 60% year-over-year. Just weeks later, following a temporary 90-day lift on tariffs, volumes rebounded sharply, jumping over 28%. This volatility underscores the sector’s dependence on global trade — and the speed at which policy shifts can influence business activity. Rising Risk — and Smarter Tools Financial stress in the transportation industry is rising. Businesses are carrying higher credit balances, delinquencies are increasing, and commercial credit scores have fallen from 44 to 36 since 2015. These trends point to a sector that’s struggling to adapt amid changing economic conditions. To help lenders better manage risk, Experian developed a transportation-specific credit model that significantly outperforms generic scoring models. By focusing on variables like credit utilization and payment history — which are particularly telling in this industry — the model offers a more accurate picture of which accounts using transportation financing are most likely to default. In today’s uncertain environment, such targeted tools are crucial for staying ahead of risk. Generic models aren't enough For credit professionals and risk leaders, the message is clear: in times of volatility, generic models aren’t enough. Tailored strategies — like Experian’s transportation-specific scoring model — provide the clarity needed to make smarter, faster decisions. Read this week's report for more details. Stay Ahead with Experian ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
