Industries

Supplier risk management has become a top priority for procurement and supply chain professionals. With rising regulatory and compliance fines and the global market disruptions caused by trade wars and the pandemic, a robust supplier risk management program is crucial. Gerard Smith, President and Co-founder of Global Risk Management Solutions, shares insights on creating a world-class supplier risk management program. In this interview, discover the essential components and strategies to effectively manage supplier risk and ensure compliance and stability in your supply chain. Evolution of Supplier Risk Management Practices Twenty years ago, when I was in procurement, many organizations self-performed everything. In other words, they collected documents and validated them as best as they could. The issue today is with COVID. With COVID, many companies are concerned. The two things we keep hearing about is the financial stability of the suppliers. Are they financially stable? Not only today, but in the foreseeable future, and secondarily, do they have insurance to protect the client company if there are any errors. So, it's the financials currently, and the insurance companies are most concerned about monitoring. Increasing Complexity in Supplier Risk Management Companies are starting to source globally, and more and more companies are concerned about the supply chain and if there are issues, whether geopolitical or whatever the case may be. So the idea here is to manage supplier risk proactively, and so there are three components of that. First, based on a client's requirements - the ability to do the risk assessment based on specific risk components. Second, having a help desk to try and troubleshoot where there are issues with the suppliers to help them to get into compliance. And third, most importantly, being able to monitor those suppliers for changes in status and getting actual push alerts, to be able to act on those. So, in other words, getting in front of the problem versus finding out that a supplier perhaps filed bankruptcy or showed up on a government watch list or something like that. Key Components of a World-Class Supplier Risk Management Program If a company wishes to have a world-class supplier risk management program, there are five crucial components that you would want to see, they are: Customized Risk Program A Customized Risk Program is tailored to address specific risk components relevant to a company's unique needs. This customization can take various forms: Geographical Considerations: Different regions, such as EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and APAC (Asia-Pacific), have distinct regulatory requirements and market conditions. A Customized Risk Program can adapt to these regional differences, ensuring compliance and appropriate risk management practices in each area. Spending Levels: Companies often have both strategic and non-strategic suppliers. Strategic suppliers, with whom the company spends more, may require a more thorough and detailed risk assessment compared to non-strategic suppliers. Customizing the risk program based on spending levels ensures that critical suppliers are monitored more closely. Specific Risk Factors: Different industries and companies face unique risks. Whether it's financial stability, compliance with specific regulations, or reputational risks, a Customized Risk Program can focus on the most relevant risk factors for the company. The key objective of a Customized Risk Program is flexibility. It must be able to adapt to various factors such as geography, spending, and specific risk elements, ensuring it is not a one-size-fits-all solution but rather a bespoke approach to managing supplier risk effectively. Adjudicating Information This involves the critical process of verifying and clarifying data to ensure accuracy. This means systematically identifying and eliminating false positives, which occur when incorrect or irrelevant information is selected. For instance, if you input "Bob's Plumbing" into a database, you might receive numerous results for companies with similar names. The challenge is to determine which "Bob's Plumbing" is the correct one that your company works with. Adjudicating information requires sophisticated methods to accurately select the correct entity and cross-verify the details, ensuring that the data is precise and applicable to your specific supplier. This process is essential for maintaining the integrity and reliability of your supplier risk management program. Reporting In a supplier risk management program, reporting capability is vital for maintaining consistent and measurable compliance standards. This involves generating real-time, standardized reports that provide current risk ratings for all suppliers. With these reports, management can quickly identify which suppliers are in compliance with set standards and which are not, along with the reasons for non-compliance. Additionally, the reports highlight any ongoing issues within the supply chain, enabling management to address problems promptly. Effective reporting ensures transparency, accountability, and the ability to make informed decisions based on up-to-date risk assessments. Document Verification and Monitoring In a supplier risk management program, Document Verification and Monitoring is crucial for ensuring the authenticity and accuracy of the documents submitted by suppliers. While collecting and managing documents can be straightforward, the challenge lies in verifying their validity. Many procure-to-pay, source-to-pay, and ERP platforms face this issue, as they often rely on suppliers to upload documents without proper verification. This can result in the acceptance of invalid or even blank documents. To address this, a robust system or process must be in place to validate key documents such as certificates of insurance, W9 forms, and other critical documentation. This system should not only collect documents but also authenticate them, ensuring they meet the required standards and are current. Continuous monitoring of these documents is essential to maintain compliance and mitigate risks associated with outdated or fraudulent information. By implementing thorough document verification and monitoring, companies can ensure the integrity of their supplier risk management program. Continuous Monitoring Continuous Monitoring refers to the ongoing, real-time oversight of supplier activities and conditions to promptly identify and address potential risks. A primary focus of continuous monitoring is assessing the financial stability of suppliers. This means regularly evaluating their financial health to detect any signs of trouble. If a supplier shows indications of financial distress, such as declining financial metrics or negative market signals, the company can take proactive measures, such as halting purchase orders, to prevent potential disruptions in the supply chain. Continuous monitoring ensures that companies can swiftly respond to changes in a supplier's status, maintaining the reliability and integrity of their supply chain operations. Critical Risk Components for Effective Supplier Risk Management There are eight different risk categories. The risk components that companies should at least address within their program. Financial Stability Financial stability is monitoring financial stability in real-time and be able to identify if there are issues whether they are getting in worse financial shape or perhaps getting in better financial shape. Digital Insurance Verification The best practice right now is what's called digital insurance verification. We're able to manage insurance coverage electronically. We don't even have to collect a certificate of insurance anymore. We can do it digitally in North America. That means that we can monitor a supplier to ensure that they continue to have the insurance requirements daily, which is a unique situation. So you want to make sure, at a minimum, you collect the certificate of insurance. If you want the best practice, you do digital insurance verification. Reputational Protection We do global adverse media monitoring. So as an example, we manage over 25,000 media sources around the globe looking for negative stories because you want to know if your supplier is caught with child labor, or if they've closed a facility somewhere in the world that you're reliant upon. So adverse media is very big at this point because things are evolving very quickly. Regulatory Compliance Regulatory compliance is basically anything that's government regulation. So, it could be the various sanctions lists. Most people don't recognize there are over 1500 watch and sanctions lists around the globe including the U.S OFAC list. That's a big one. It can be a Conflict Minerals Declaration, U.K. Modern Slavery Act, Reach ROHS, the California Transparency Act, anything that's a government regulation falls into that category. Cyber Security Cyber Security would be anything that's involved with data and document verification. It has to be able to collect and validate not only the documents such as a code of conduct, but documents with an expiration date such as an NDA or a diversity certificate. Any standardized documents should be part of the program so suppliers don't get continuously contacted for more documents. Social Responsibility Social responsibility could be anything from diversity verification, child labor, those types of things. Document Management Validate key documents such as certificates of insurance, W9 forms, and other critical documentation. This system should not only collect documents but also authenticate them, ensuring they meet the required standards and are current. Continuous monitoring of these documents is essential to maintain compliance and mitigate risks associated with outdated or fraudulent information. Health and Safety Finally, health and safety could include an HSC questionnaire,  EMR ratings, or OSHA statistics. Those are eight areas that companies should at least consider looking into as far as potential risk components. Obviously, there are different parts of each, one of those where those are the broad categories. Global Supplier Risk Assessments: Reliability and Challenges Dependingon what country we're speaking of. Is the information available? Yes, there are varying degrees of information. You can get more information in North American and EMEA than you can say in APAC or South America. Is it available? Absolutely. We can do a supply risk assessment in over 120 countries. So, it is possible to get information. There is standardized information in terms of the adverse media I spoke about. The watch and sanctions list, those are all global. There's a variety of things that can be managed globally. Some of it, in terms of the financial, for instance, it depends on which country we're talking about and how much information can be obtained within that country, and secondarily, whether it can be monitored on an ongoing basis. Again, it depends on which country we're speaking about. In summary Establishing a world-class supplier risk management program involves understanding the evolution of risk management practices, addressing increasing complexities, and incorporating critical components such as financial stability, digital insurance verification, and continuous monitoring. By proactively managing supplier risk, companies can safeguard their supply chain and ensure compliance. Want to go deeper? Watch our on-demand webinar with GRMS If you would like to hear more about GRMS, watch our on-demand webinar Mitigating Supplier Risk in A Changing World." Gerard goes into greater detail on best practices and how you can proactively manage supplier risk management while staying resilient and the new normal.

As business delinquencies rise in response to COVID-19, credit departments are becoming increasingly challenged.  In our August 13th Sip and Solve webinar, John Krickus and Andrew Moore will be on hand to share some strategies for maximizing receivables amid rising delinquencies. Managing receivables has never been more important or more challenging. Traditional approaches may no longer apply. In this 15-minute Sip and Solve session, we discuss some solutions for effectively and efficiently handling the increase in receivables many companies are facing. After watching this talk you will learn three key takeaways: Prioritizing receivable management in today's environment Analytic tools for managing receivables Flexing receivables strategies to meet your company's priorities Click to view full slides and transcripts from this session.

In a favorable economic climate, business resilience is often treated as an afterthought. Success is measured in rapid growth and leaps of progress, while failure is little more than a tempering of that expansion. It’s only when things slow down - like during a global pandemic - that companies are forced to take stock of the ground they stand on. As the economy slows to a crawl and entire industries feel the squeeze, business resilience will determine which organizations make it through to the other side. Whether you’re on the supply side or the demand side, chances are your organization is being tested right now. Here are some practical strategies to stay resilient in the time of Covid-19. Gerard Smith, President of Global Risk Management Solutions (GRMS), works with companies who are either on-boarding new suppliers or evaluating current suppliers. When the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains in most industries, many of these companies started scrambling to find replacement suppliers. Finding a reliable supplier is always a challenge, but it’s even more difficult during a global pandemic and economic crisis.     The best practice here is still to vet new suppliers carefully. Smith’s company creates a risk assessment program for Experian clients that analyzes 50 different financial and legal components, including the following: If they’re on the OFAC sanctions list If they’re financially stable If they actually have the certifications they claim to have If they have insurance If they’ve received negative press Many companies fail to do their due diligence when it comes to suppliers, especially if they’re trying to fulfill orders quickly. More often than not, this leads to bigger problems down the line. If you hire a supplier that’s hemorrhaging money, for instance, they may file for bankruptcy right after you pay them for a major shipment. Companies that use GRMS will be notified regularly if a supplier’s financial or legal status changes. If a supplier cancels their insurance coverage, for example, that could indicate financial struggles. Staying abreast of information like this allows businesses to be proactive with suppliers and avoid being blindsided. Make Sure Clients Are Financially Healthy On the flip side of the buyer-supplier relationship, suppliers are now being asked to extend due dates. Deciding how to comply with these requests can be tricky. Most want to be understanding and reasonable, but there is often legitimate concern over whether they’ll receive payment. Brodie Oldham, Senior Director of Analytic Consultancy for Experian, said Experian offers several services for suppliers who need to gauge how reliable their customers are in this moment. Experian has a special Covid-19 risk index that suppliers can overlay on top of existing credit models. This tool can help determine whether or not a client is in an unstable financial position. If the company operates in a highly impacted part of the country or industry, the supplier can use that information to change the terms. For example, they can sell fewer items to minimize the risk of an unpaid invoice. Experian also monitors credit utilization for business credit cards and other lines of credit. If a company’s credit utilization surpasses a certain threshold, they can alert the supplier who can halt future shipments until the utilization decreases. Find Faster Ways to Evaluate Creditworthiness Many suppliers depend on a company’s credit information to determine its reliability as a buyer. Likewise, credit bureaus are being forced to reevaluate their models in response to the changing business landscape brought on by Covid-19. Enter the agile credit function. The term agile has traditionally been used in the context of software development to describe an iterative approach where requirements and solutions evolve through collaboration between cross-functional teams. It allows companies to adapt to new requests quickly and improve time-to-market. Agile is all about being nimble and responsive - something credit bureaus are prioritizing in today’s uncertain economy.   Agile credit means finding new, faster ways of evaluating customers and determining their ability to pay, in a time when that information can change daily. “When everything shut down in March, credit people got thrown for a loop,” said Dan Meder, Vice President of Consulting, Product Marketing and Alliances for Experian Business Information Services. “They needed a way to manage that change very quickly.” That’s where having an agile credit approach comes in. “It’s about using agile principles in your credit function to respond more quickly to changing market needs,” Meder said. Using an agile credit system helps suppliers decide what kind of terms to offer their customers. Many companies are asking suppliers to extend their terms and due dates, often switching from net-30 to net-60. Suppliers then have to decide if they can trust these companies to repay them within that longer time frame, Meder said. If companies in this position use an agile credit function, they can be more responsive and confident in the terms they set out because they’re basing their credit policies on the current state of their customer environment. This requires operating with the latest possible information on how current economic conditions are affecting their customers. Meder said that making credit function more agile requires direction from the head of the credit department and other members of that department. They can also utilize software programmers if the automatic process needs to be updated or any outside consultants for specific analytical expertise. “The idea is to bring together a team of people with direct involvement in managing the credit function to assess how best to manage the customer experience given the current state of the customer environment,” he said. “This includes setting policies around risk assessment as well as credit terms and collection processes.” Meder said companies should have technology that allows them to tinker with their credit function so they can make changes quickly. “This is especially true in a fast-changing or uncertain environment such as what we are seeing with COVID-19 and the uncertain effect it is having on our economy’s future,” he said. “In fact, it is turbulent times such as these where being “agile” is most important since the credit department needs to be able to alter course quickly if the customer environment changes for better or for worse.” Consider Being Flexible With Clients While delayed payments from clients is upsetting, avoid taking your current client relationships for granted. While a more stringent approach from suppliers is understandable right now, Meder cautions companies to remember that the pandemic will end at some point. At that time, companies will remember which suppliers were flexible about payments, due dates and terms - and which companies weren’t. “If you weren’t good to them while they were struggling, they’re going to forget about you when things turn around,” Meder said. To find out how fine-tuning your company’s credit function can help it weather the current economic crisis, reach out to your Experian representative.

When insurance underwriters make mistakes, bad policies can cost billions. Alternative forms of data is helping change those outcomes, particularly for insurance providers in helping them identify blind spots and accurately underwrite policies. Watch our special Insurance-focused webinar titled "Beyond Credit Risk - Understanding Alternative Data" with HazardHub. Heath Foley and Carl Stronach from Experian is joined by Bob Frady from HazardHub during this lively discussion. Alternative sources of data are growing in importance in the market. The key to our data platform is constantly investing and sourcing a wider variety of data such as geographic hazards, social media, and OSHA data in order to represent a fuller picture of the health of the business.  In this one hour talk, we walk through: Utilizing property-level hazard risk assessments The growing importance of alternative sources of data How to bring superior data to power comprehensive insights Related information What is alternative and non-traditional data/

Experian® today announced Ascend Commercial Suite™ for financial institutions specializing in commercial lending as well as insurance carriers to drive growth while reducing risk. The suite includes Experian’s Ascend Analytical Sandbox™ configurations and a new Ascend Commercial Benchmarking Dashboard™ that provides access to industry-leading data on small and midsize businesses. “Experian is committed to creating opportunities for businesses to succeed,” said Hiq Lee, president of Experian’s Business Information Services. “During uncertain times, making fast, accurate decisions is critical for lenders so they can continue to extend credit responsibly to the businesses that need it most. Experian’s Ascend Commercial Suite enables clients to access world-class advanced analytics, AI, machine learning, and benchmarking tools so they can make real-time decisions that can ultimately help businesses on the road to recovery ahead.” Experian’s Ascend Analytical Sandbox is an industry-leading cloud-based data and analytics solution that offers flexibility in addressing lenders’ needs and offers instant access to up to 19 years of data. The secure hybrid-cloud environment allows users to combine their own data sets with Experian’s exclusive data assets, including consumer credit, commercial credit, nontraditional, auto, and more. Small and midsize business lenders, as well as insurance carriers, can seamlessly blend commercial and consumer small business data to get a 360-degree view of their overall small business portfolio to more easily identify risks and opportunities. It’s a one-stop-shop for insights, model development, and results measurement. The Ascend Commercial Benchmarking Dashboard delivers a comprehensive visual dashboard view of credit risk data and Small Business Financial Exchange™ (SBFE) Data exclusively for SBFE members. Clients can compare their portfolios against industry performance and analyze new market segments for potential growth and expansion. The insights available through the Ascend Commercial Suite can be viewed and shared through interactive dashboards and customizable reports. Additional use cases include: Portfolio performance and monitoring: Lenders can harness the power of Experian data to better monitor performance and quickly identify areas of strength or concern on visual dashboards without having to run custom reports every month. Model development and validation: Clients can monitor existing models and develop new models in order to improve risk profiles of new accounts and improve existing accounts. Blended analysis: Small business lenders relying on personal guarantees can use both consumer and business data to determine a customer or potential customer’s overall risk. Marketing analytics and acquisition: Lenders’ campaign information and results combined with Experian’s Credit Risk Database help them understand performance and improve marketing and segmentation. Decisioning for risk assessment and segmentation: Lenders and insurance carriers can optimize risk decisioning and segmentation strategies using analytical tools on one platform, which provides quick and efficient access to multiple integrated data sets. Reject inferencing: Lenders can load application data and use SBFE trade-level data to understand how declines performed if customers obtained credit elsewhere. Custom attributes to better analyze portfolios: With SBFE Data, lenders can create their own custom attributes or use Experian’s highly predictive set of attributes. Experian’s Ascend Commercial Suite is built on the Experian Ascend Technology Platform™. Launched in 2017, the Experian Ascend Technology Platform is recognized as one of the most successful launches in Experian’s history. It’s currently being used by the top financial institutions globally including the United Kingdom, South Africa, Brazil and Asia Pacific. Experian’s Ascend Analytical Sandbox was also selected in 2019 as the winner of the “Best Overall Analytics Platform” award by FinTech Breakthrough, an independent organization that recognizes the top companies, technologies and products in the global fintech market. To learn more about Experian’s Ascend Commercial Suite, please visit: https://www.experian.com/business-information/ascend-commercial-suite.

Experian and Moody’s Analytics have just released the Q1 2019 Main Street Report. The report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary on what certain trends mean for lenders and small businesses. In Q1 U.S. small businesses brushed off a government shutdown as stock markets recovered and income gains remained steady. Delinquency rates remained mostly stable, with pockets of weakness spread out among regions and industries, notably agriculture in the Great Lakes and manufacturing in the Southwest. Small firms seem to have simply shrugged off the headwinds of the first quarter and kept on with business as usual. Despite a fresh escalation in trade tensions,  the year is starting off well with positive news coming from the areas presenting risks to the outlook. A dovish stance on interest rates from the Federal Reserve and room to grow in our housing market — 2019 is off to a strong start. Watch Webinar Recording -  Q1 2019 Quarterly Business Credit Review Listen to the experts from Experian and Moody's Analytics go in-depth on insights revealed in the Q1 2019 Experian/Moody's Analytics Main Street Report.  

Serving commercial Property & Casualty insurers is a major objective of 3rd parties in the analytics and data space. This industry vertical is one in which standard credit tools already apply to the carrier’s challenge in managing claims risk; there is continued investment within and beyond the industry in developing innovative tools for this purpose. However, a smooth roll out of such tools at scale requires a comprehensive understanding of the regulatory process and its constraints. US Insurance industry- overall regulatory structure: Currently, US carriers are regulated primarily by the individual states, a result of the 1945 McCarran Ferguson Act (“MFA”). Less known is that the MFA was presaged by the Paul v Virginia decision (1869, later overturned by SCOTUS) that held that issuing an insurance policy was not a commercial transaction! [1]. Federal regulatory guidance, ultimately from the Office of the Controller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), is implemented via the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”; see below). NAIC organizes the insurance commissioners from all 50 states, Washington DC, and territories. NAIC maintains legislative databases, market conduct standards, industry financial reporting, conducts training, and many other functions. NAIC provides supervisory guidance for the use of models used to predict insurance loss risk. Among other functions, NAIC has created the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (“ORSA”) framework which implements existing OCC and FRB guidance to the states. Capital reserves needed for solvency as well as business conduct -- including product definition and general business operations, licensing, maintaining a guaranty fund, underwriting, and rate setting-- are determined primarily by the states in which the carrier operates [2]. Today’s system of state-by-state regulation is more challenging than an equivalent centralized regulating body; insurance carriers operate increasingly online, driving the need for multi-state operations which in turn require multistate licensing and complex regulatory compliance. The average property liability firm has 16 state licenses, while the average life insurance carrier has 25. The coordination of state insurance laws, as well as many other quasi-governmental insurance industry functions, falls under the aegis of the NAIC. We will focus our discussion here on the regulation of risk models. How should third parties align the model building with regulatory requirements? Example 1: Basic filing and disclosure protocol: Responsibility to disclose to state regulators typically lies with the developer or the owner of the model. Disclosure responsibility for custom risk models built around the data of a specific client insurer resides with the insurer, while industry standard models used for multiple clients are typically disclosed by the model developer. Reporting and disclosure requirements vary by state. While the most central functions of interest by state regulators are underwriting and rate setting, any other use of models by insurers may be subject to regulatory disclosure. Models used to assess loss risk for rate setting or underwriting purposes are typically examined for discriminatory impact and use of prohibited data in addition to adequate risk performance and numerical stability. “Prohibited data” varies by state but may include certain data elements gleaned from in-state residents, federal crime data, certain credit data elements, traffic violations exceeding a specified age on the books, or other data; the section below deals with credit data. Finally, the requirement to disclose model details such as attributes and weightings also vary between states, and may require the developer to invoke trade secret status for the subject models to avoid disclosure to the public (implicit in many states). The adjudication of such claims is variable between states, as are all communications with regulators on this topic. Example 2: Use of consumer credit information to underwrite personal insurance policies: Using credit information in models to predict loss risk on personal insurance contracts also has a rich and extremely active history in the US. P&C insurers have generally found that credit risk and claims risk are positively correlated. They have used credit data on individual consumers to various degrees. Notably, the Consumer- Based Insurance Score (CBIS) employs consumer credit parameters and has been used across the insurance industry since 1993. Amid vigorous debate, states have seen active legislative attempts to restrict and define allowable use of consumer credit data by insurers. Credit information in some cases can outweigh a consumer’s driving record in setting rates- leading to the bitter but factual observation that excellent consumer credit can literally outweigh a DUI conviction in some states and conditions. In 2016 alone, the state legislative actions below were considered and/or enacted; note once again that the ability of individual states to regulate independently greatly complicates the picture for large carriers operating in multiple states:  California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts do not appear in the table above. In those states, consumer credit information cannot be used to underwrite personal auto policies. Example 3: Reporting channel: State regulators typically require use of the System for Electronic Rate and Form Filing (“SERFF”) database maintained by NAIC for formal submissions: https://login.serff.com/serff/ What’s coming down the road? We have seen examples of the dependence of applicable insurance regulations on individual state laws; the mechanics of model development requires understanding and working with these restrictions. Basic filing and disclosure, permissible model variables, the proprietary status of model detail, and the use of certain consumer information (e.g., credit scores, driving records) are all aspects of risk models whose successful execution depends on understanding the widely variable set of existing state regulations. Several authors have cited the need for a shift in the underlying regulatory structure of the industry from state-based to a national system, citing the inefficiency of the licensing process and the true interstate nature of today’s distribution system. A centralized federal insurance regulatory body would simplify interstate compliance by carriers, but would also introduce other complications. However, it appears prudent in the near-term for 3rd parties developing models to gain awareness of, and streamline, current requirements for regulatory compliance at the state level. Conclusion: There is a considerable additional value that the next generation of models will contribute to the commercial P&C vertical. Insurers and 3rd party developers have demonstrated the applicability of their models and data reports, offering competitive added value with standard risk scores adapted from the credit domain. However, promoting these products more broadly and expanding the product offerings themselves into cyber risk, commercial linkages, and various other tools for insurers, the insurance industry faces efficiency hurdles from our 50-state regulatory framework. With any regulatory centralization unlikely near term, 3rd parties thus need to gain working fluency in NAIC and in the SERFF database, anticipate state-level documentation and disclosure requirements, and attain a level of familiarity with state regulatory machines that enables the management of the interests of their clients with confidence. How Experian can help you Experian provides analytical services for Property & Casualty as well as other insurance product verticals. To enable you to assess claims risk at the time of policy application (or renewal), we either apply standard risk models or develop custom risk models to your underwriting and rate-setting processes. To help you guard against cyber fraud, false identity, and reputation risk, we offer specialty products as well. We also offer special purpose, custom analyses on request, and we sell curated commercial data to your standards as well. References: [1] Brookings Institute. paper on future of regulation- Grace & Klein [2] Insurance Information Institute: Regulation [3] Grant Thornton: ORSA requirements: Model Risk Management for Insurance Companies [4] Blueprint for a Modernized Financial Regulatory Structure, Dept. of Treas., 2008  

I have been on the road meeting with clients at advisory events, forums, and industry thought leadership conferences, and what I continue to hear is a concern about the upcoming recession. The drivers of the next recession are up for debate but the consensus is that it is inevitable. The U.S. Economy is complex and the signals are mixed as to where the greatest impact will be felt. Protecting your business, whether consumer or commercial focused, is dependent on the stability and strength of your lending criteria and customer engagement practices. You want to protect your customers as well as your business in the case of a market stumble. You are laser-focused on making the best possible decision when reviewing credit applications and setting loan terms, however, financial situations change over time for both individuals and companies. This is especially true when a recession hits and unemployment begins to rise, consumers stop spending, and commercial delinquencies begin to rise. When these macroeconomic changes occur, the credit you have extended to your portfolio might be at under market stresses and at a stronger risk of nonpayment, and this can affect your business’s health and sustainability. By stress testing your portfolio, you can determine what may happen, when stresses are exerted, by a receding economy, on your portfolio. You can use credit information, macroeconomic data, and alternative data to build models that forecast what is likely to happen in the future and how stresses, will affect the ability for people or businesses to pay their bills. While larger regulated companies may be required to perform forecasting and stress testing, lenders of all size can benefit from the process. Gathering the Right Data for Accurate Stress Testing The accuracy of your stress test depends on the type and quality of data used for forecasting. Recessions are cyclical and likely to re-occur every few years, it is recommended that companies use historical data from the 2008 recession for analysis and to make accurate predictions. Young businesses may not have complete historical data going back to the 2008 recessionary time period. A partner like Experian can create look-alike business samples, from the vast holistic data, to simulate the likely impact of macroeconomic scenarios. For example, a financial services firm has been providing small business loans between $50,000 and $100,000 for the past three years and wants to predict future losses. To gather the data for loss forecasting, you need to create a business and product profile identifying loans or businesses with similar characteristics, to stress and forecast performance. These profiles are used to build a look-alike sample of businesses and loan products that look and perform like your current portfolio and will add the sample size and retro time periods needed to create a statistically viable analysis sample. Selecting a Forecasting Strategy Once you have the historic credit, macroeconomic, and alternative data on your portfolio or look-alike retro sample for modeling, you need to stress test the data. Most stress test analyses start with a vintage based analysis. This type of analysis looks at the performance of a portfolio across different time periods (Example: March 2007, March 2008, March 2009, etc..) to evaluate the change in performance and the level of impact environmental stresses have on the portfolio's performance. Once you have this high-level performance, you can extrapolate into the future performance of the portfolio and set capitalization strategies and lending policies. Identifying Loss Forecasting Outcomes Regulators and investors want to know the business is solvent and healthy. Loss forecasting demonstrates that your company is thoughtful in its business processes and planning for future stresses. For regional lenders that are not regulated as closely as large national or global lenders, forecasting shows investors that they are following the same rules as larger regulated lenders, which strengthens investor confidence. It also demonstrates effective management of capital adequacy and puts you on a level playing field with larger lenders. Companies with limited data can start with credit data for look-alike sample development and add historical data and alternative type data as they grow for a holistic portfolio view. Setting up Governance Business policies and macroeconomic stresses change over time, it’s essential to set up a governance schedule to review forecasting processes and documentation. Your stress testing and forecasting will not be accurate if you design it once and do not update it. Most companies use an annual schedule, but others review more frequency because of specific circumstances. Effectively Documenting Loss Forecasting The key element of loss forecasting is effectively documenting both sample and strategy taken in the evaluation of your portfolio. A scenario you might face is when a regulator looks at the analysis performed and you have selected sample data at the business level instead of the loan level, documentation should capture the explanation of why you made the decision and the understood impacts of that decision. While the goal is to have complete data, many companies do not have access to high-quality data. Instead of foregoing loss forecasting, the use of documentation to note the gaps and build a road-map for the data can be of great value. Here are additional key points to include in the documentation: • Data sources • Product names • Credit policies • Analysis strategy • Result summary • Road-map and governance schedule By creating a stress-test analysis strategy for forecasting loss, your company can make sure its portfolio and financial status remain as healthy tomorrow as they are today while maintaining transparency and investor confidence. The next recession is out there, this is a great time to strengthen processes for future successes.  

Experian Business Information Services recently introduced a powerful new marketing platform called Business TargetIQ. Product Manager, Kelly DeBoer answered a few questions about the product and described use cases that promote greater collaboration between credit and marketing departments. What does Business TargetIQ do? Business TargetIQ is our new marketing platform so it's a B2B marketing platform where clients can access data for marketing applications. How is it different from other business marketing platforms? It is unique in that it not only includes your standard or core firmagraphic information but also includes Experian's credit attributes. Does it have credit data? What does that mean to marketing or collaboration? Typically marketing data and credit data are housed in separate silos of information. With this tool the information will be combined together which will allow the tool not only to be used in traditional marketing applications for targeting but can also be in that risk factor which applies to different divisions within our client's applications or use cases of the data. Who would most benefit from Business TargetIQ? The thing about Business TargetIQ is it truly applies to all different verticals, as well as all different contacts within the company. So whether it's a financial vertical or a trade vertical, retail, just across the board all clients can utilize this. Anybody that's doing marketing can utilize this platform. What core problems does Business TargetIQ solve? It solves a lot of different problems, so, the most common client issues that are brought to our attention are gaps in data, as well as in the marketing initiatives. So they may have data in-house but they have holes within the data. Our tool will allow them to not only upload their client records and fill in a lot of those gaps that they may have, whether it be contact information, or firmagraphics or address information. It will standardize that data and fill in those gaps. But will also provide the means to again use that data. Our business database which has over 16 million records. They can then utilize that information for prospecting, for data append, for analytics, for research applications, so it solves a lot of problems with regard to marketing and data concerns. How does credit data help with prospecting? So what we find is clients come to us and they may say you know I have an idea of what our clients look like, they're in this SIC or in this industry code, or they have this sales volume or employee size, but what they may not know is on the back end which really helps identify and target those businesses is the credit attributes, so the risk factors around those. So do they have delinquencies in their payments? Have they filed bankruptcies? Do they have UCC filings? So it allows them to take it that next step and not only really define what their clients look like, but identify clients that look like that. Learn More About Business TargetIQ