Following two years of declines, retail spending forecasts are up as parents and students stock up for campus
Back-to-school season is underway, and the retail sector is offering commercial lenders and risk leaders an interesting combination of signals: consumer spending is expected to rebound, commercial credit availability remains relatively steady, and retail businesses are carrying higher balances without a corresponding broad deterioration in credit performance.
Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse report analysis examines these trends using retail spending data alongside Experian commercial credit data. The findings suggest a retail sector responding to stronger seasonal demand while continuing to demonstrate relatively stable credit performance. At the same time, rising commercial balances provide an important metric for lenders to monitor.
Back-to-school spending approaches $150 billion
U.S. retail sales have nearly doubled over the past decade, recently surpassing $800 billion. Inflation has limited some of that growth in real terms, but the 2026 back-to-school season represents a potential bright spot for retailers.
After two years of declines, total back-to-school spending is expected to reach nearly $150 billion in 2026. Spending for K–12 students is projected to increase approximately 10% compared with 2025, while college spending is expected to rise 17%.
Importantly, the increase isn’t simply a story of consumers paying higher prices.
College shoppers are budgeting a record $1,478 per person, an 8.4% year-over-year increase. K–12 shoppers expect to spend approximately $863 per person, just 0.7% more than last year. With total spending rising faster than per-person spending, particularly for K–12, increased shopping participation appears to be contributing to the growth.
For retailers, stronger seasonal spending can translate into greater inventory, supplier and working-capital requirements. That makes the industry’s commercial credit trends particularly relevant.
Retail credit formation holds steady
Experian commercial credit data shows that new-account formation among retail businesses has held up even as activity elsewhere has softened.
New tradelines represented 0.7% of retail businesses’ total tradelines so far in 2026, unchanged from 2025. Across all other industries, the corresponding rate declined from 1.3% to 1.0%.
The distinction is important: retail isn’t necessarily accelerating. Instead, new-account formation has remained stable while the rest of the market has slowed, narrowing the gap between retail and other industries.
The types of financing retailers use also provide insight into their operating needs.
Commercial cards represent 70% of new retail credit originations, compared with 76% for other industries. Retail businesses have a greater share of originations in open-ended credit lines and term loans. That mix is consistent with financing requirements such as inventory purchases, supplier payments and needs extending beyond short-term liquidity.
Within retail subsectors closely associated with back-to-school shopping—including clothing, shoes, electronics, books and office supplies—new tradeline formation has gradually eased since 2023, while average limits on newly originated accounts have generally remained consistent.
Credit capacity remains available
Another notable signal comes from commercial card limits.
Average limits on newly opened commercial cards recently reached $11,400 for retail businesses, compared with $8,600 for businesses in all other industries.
Retail limits increased 6% from 2025, while limits across other industries increased 22%. That faster growth outside retail narrowed the difference between the two groups, but retail businesses continue to receive materially higher average limits.
Taken together with stable new-tradeline formation, Experian’s data shows no broad pullback in credit formation or commercial card capacity within the retail sector.
For commercial lenders, however, availability is only part of the story. How businesses are using that credit—and whether repayment performance is changing—can provide an important additional perspective.
Retail balances are rising—but utilization remains stable
The clearest change in Experian’s retail credit data is the growth in outstanding balances.
Average commercial balances per retail business increased 13% from 2025 to $25,900 so far in 2026. Across all other industries, balances increased just 3%, reaching $23,700. Retail balances, which were roughly aligned with the broader market in 2025, have consequently moved above it.
Yet higher balances have not been accompanied by a similar increase in revolving credit utilization.
Retail businesses averaged 29.5% revolving utilization, down 0.3 percentage points from 2025 and only slightly above the 29.2% rate for other industries. Utilization declined by the same amount for both groups.
Serious delinquency also remains relatively stable. The 91-plus-days-past-due rate for retail businesses held at approximately 0.9%, while the rate for other industries increased from 0.7% to 0.8%.
Retail therefore continues to have a somewhat higher serious delinquency rate, but the gap has narrowed. More importantly, the increase in retail balances has not, to date, translated into broad deterioration in serious delinquency or revolving utilization.
What commercial risk leaders should watch next
For lenders and CROs, the combination of rising balances and stable credit performance deserves attention.
Back-to-school demand is providing a potential tailwind for retailers, while credit formation and available capacity remain relatively steady. At the same time, average commercial balances are growing considerably faster in retail than across other industries.
That makes balance trajectory an important metric to watch.
Experian’s analysis identifies three areas worth monitoring going forward: real retail sales growth, inflation and other cost pressures, and revolving credit utilization among retail businesses. A sustained increase in utilization—particularly if accompanied by higher balances or tightening credit limits—could provide a different signal than balance growth alone.
For now, the data presents a more measured picture: stronger seasonal demand, stable credit formation and higher retail balances that have not yet been accompanied by broad signs of increasing credit stress.
For commercial lenders, continuing to evaluate these indicators together can provide a more complete view of emerging opportunities and risks within the retail sector.
Learn more
- ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
- ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
- ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Related Posts
Explore how post-pandemic small business growth is reshaping credit risk and what CROs should watch across delinquency, utilization and portfolio trends.
Experian explores commercial credit trends in the telecommunications industry in the latest Commercial Pulse Report.
Experian takes a snapshot of the Construction Industry before the effects of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act take hold.
