Commercial Pulse Report | 09/03/2025
The latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report (September 3rd, 2025) gives us a fascinating look at where small businesses stand today. Sure, things are a bit tight right now with lending getting stricter and some credit stress showing up. But zoom out a little, and you’ll see something remarkable: small businesses have completely transformed themselves over the past few years.
We’re talking about one of the biggest shifts in modern business history. Companies that used to move at a snail’s pace have become nimble, tech-savvy operations that can pivot on a dime.
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The Economy Right Now: It’s Complicated
As we mentioned in the Macroeconomic section of the report, the current economic picture presents a complex mix of signals. Inflation sat at 2.7% in July, unemployment remains relatively low at 4.2%, and wages continue to climb. These indicators are largely positive, even as companies moderate their hiring pace.
Here’s what’s encouraging: small business owners are feeling more optimistic. The NFIB confidence levels are actually above the 52-year average—a real turnaround after months of uncertainty. And people are still starting businesses like crazy. We saw 471,000 new business applications in July alone. That tells you something about the American entrepreneurial spirit.
The Stress is Real, But So is the Strength
Now, Experian’s Small Business Index did drop to 32.8 in July—that’s nearly 12 points down from the month before. It sounds scary, but it’s more about early warning signs.
What’s happening is that business owners are feeling the squeeze personally. Banks are being pickier about loans, and more people are falling behind on their bills, creating a ripple effect. Add in student loan problems and a job market that’s not quite as hot as it was, and you can see why household budgets are getting tight.
But—and this is important—small businesses themselves are holding steady. Their loan payments are on track, and all that optimism and new business formation we mentioned? That shows real possibility.
The Real Story: Three Chapters of Change
Here’s where it gets interesting. If you look at the past seven years, small business evolution breaks down into three clear chapters:
The Slow Years (2018-early 2020): Back then, most small businesses were still doing things the old-fashioned way, to put it. Maybe they had a basic website, but they were primarily brick-and-mortar operations with everyone working in the office. Change happened, but it was gradual.
The Panic Years (2020-2022): Then COVID hit like a freight train. Suddenly, businesses that had been putting off going digital for years had to figure it out in weeks. Contactless everything, working from home, completely changing how they operated—it was sink or swim time.
The government threw lifelines to help businesses survive, and amazingly, a ton of new entrepreneurs jumped into the pool. It was chaotic, but it worked.
The Smart Years (2023-2025): This is where we are now, and it’s pretty impressive. Small businesses aren’t just surviving—they’re thriving with tools that seemed like science fiction just a few years ago. They’re using AI to understand their customers better, running hybrid operations that blend online and offline seamlessly, and many are taking sustainability and cybersecurity seriously. They’re meeting customers wherever they are—online, in stores, on social media—and making it feel personal. Go to any Starbucks and see how many customers walk in and pick up their order vs stand in line.
The numbers back this up: 38% more businesses established commercial credit between 2018 and 2023. New business formation is still 51% higher than before the pandemic. And here’s the kicker—businesses started in 2023 actually look more financially stable than the ones from earlier years.
What This Means Going Forward
Here’s the bottom line: yes, small businesses are dealing with some headaches right now. Credit is tighter, money’s a bit harder to come by, and everyone’s feeling the economic uncertainty. But these aren’t the same small businesses that existed five years ago. They’ve been through the fire and came out stronger, smarter, and more flexible. They know how to adapt because they’ve had to do it—fast.
For banks, policymakers, and anyone else trying to support small business, the key is remembering that short-term pain doesn’t erase long-term progress. We’ve built a more dynamic, resilient small business ecosystem.
This transformation continues to evolve. Recent history has demonstrated that small businesses can adapt more rapidly than traditional models predicted. The next phase of this evolution will likely build on these foundations of enhanced agility and technological integration.
For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report.
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