The Experian Small Business Index™ declined month-over-month by almost 12 points.
July 2025
- Index Value (Jul):32.8
- Previous Month:44.7
- MoM:-11.9
- YoY:-16.8 (Jul 2024 = 49.6)
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined in July to 32.8, down 11.9 points. Small businesses still look healthy, but business owners are starting to show some stress in their consumer credit profiles. The primary driver was tighter lending conditions, which reduced approval rates and increased delinquencies for consumers. Pressure has built on the small business owner due to rising student loan defaults and a softer labor market, which is beginning to erode consumer credit health.
Inflation has remained even, with slight upticks in some sectors and slight decreases in others. Rent inflation continues a downward trend; it was 3.8% in June, down from 3.9% in May. Producer price inflation was also down 0.4 points to 2.3%, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Some sectors had inflation rise, with food inflation up slightly from May to 3.0% from 2.9%, overall inflation was up 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May, and core inflation increased from 2.8% in May to 2.9% in June. The savings rate decreased to 4.5% in May, down from 4.9% in April, as consumers continue to spend.
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The September index marks the first increase since April 2026 September 2026 Index Value (Sep): 41.3 Previous Month: 38.2 MoM: +3.1 YoY: +0.2 (Sep 2025 = 41.1) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased by 3.1 points to 41.3 in September, which is on par with September of last year. This marks the first increase in the score since April 2026. Small business and business owner risk showed mixed signals in September. Business owners were able to originate more trades and the utilization on their late delinquency trades fell, both positive signs of improving credit risk. They also had more emerging businesses establishing credit than in the previous month. While owners’ consumer trades had higher 31+ day delinquency rates and a higher 61+ day delinquency rate on revolving trades, those values were nearly identical to this time last year. There were signs of increased risk in small business owners’ commercial trades with increases in both commercial trade utilization and 91+ day delinquency rates. On the macroeconomic side, GDP is strong and unemployment continues to be low. The advanced estimate of annualized GDP for the third quarter was 3.4% and unemployment was up slightly from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September. Inflation continues to be the main challenge in the economy, with headline inflation at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, driven largely by energy costs. While fuel prices decreased slightly over the last month, prices for regular and diesel fuel are up 40% and 73%, respectively, from a year ago. These high costs are challenging for both small businesses and small business owners. New businesses continue to form at a very high rate, with nearly 535K new businesses launched in September, well above the historical average. The improvement in the Experian Small Business Index and the improving risk metrics for small business owners’ consumer trades suggest the lending market remains healthy for small businesses. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined 9 points to 38.2 in August, which is nearly level with last year at this time.
Experian Small Business Index saw rising utilization and 91+ day past-due rates, which contributed to the monthly decline.
