Up 14.4 points over last year, buoyed by easing inflation and low unemployment
July 2026
- Index Value (Jul):47.2
- Previous Month:50.5
- MoM:-3.3
- YoY:+14.4 (Jul 2025 = 32.8)
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined 3.3 points to 47.2 in July. It remained 14.4 points above its level a year ago, indicating that small business conditions continue to be stronger than they were a year ago despite month-to-month softening.
Small businesses showed increases in utilization and 91+ past-due rates, which contributed to the decline, while increased risk in the owners’ consumer files also weighed on the index. Owners showed increases in 60+ past-due revolving account balances and utilization rates on balances over 90 days past due. Small business owners may also be facing tighter access to credit. Both the number of new consumer trades opened by small business owners and their approval rate on new inquiries fell.
On the macroeconomic side, inflation eased modestly in July. Headline inflation declined from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July. Rent and food inflation were flat or down slightly in July, and producer price inflation eased to 4.7% from 5.5% in June. The PCE price index and core PCE (excluding food and energy) were both unchanged compared to June. Core PCE is lower than overall PCE, with elevated fuel costs contributing to the difference. Prices for both regular and diesel fuel increased 2% and 8%, respectively, over the last month. Easing inflation is good news for small businesses and their owners alike, and this may have contributed to improved business owner optimism, as measured by the NFIB.
The continued easing of inflation and low unemployment puts small businesses in a stronger position than they were a year ago.
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The September index marks the first increase since April 2026 September 2026 Index Value (Sep): 41.3 Previous Month: 38.2 MoM: +3.1 YoY: +0.2 (Sep 2025 = 41.1) The Experian Small Business Index™ increased by 3.1 points to 41.3 in September, which is on par with September of last year. This marks the first increase in the score since April 2026. Small business and business owner risk showed mixed signals in September. Business owners were able to originate more trades and the utilization on their late delinquency trades fell, both positive signs of improving credit risk. They also had more emerging businesses establishing credit than in the previous month. While owners’ consumer trades had higher 31+ day delinquency rates and a higher 61+ day delinquency rate on revolving trades, those values were nearly identical to this time last year. There were signs of increased risk in small business owners’ commercial trades with increases in both commercial trade utilization and 91+ day delinquency rates. On the macroeconomic side, GDP is strong and unemployment continues to be low. The advanced estimate of annualized GDP for the third quarter was 3.4% and unemployment was up slightly from 4.1% in August to 4.2% in September. Inflation continues to be the main challenge in the economy, with headline inflation at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, driven largely by energy costs. While fuel prices decreased slightly over the last month, prices for regular and diesel fuel are up 40% and 73%, respectively, from a year ago. These high costs are challenging for both small businesses and small business owners. New businesses continue to form at a very high rate, with nearly 535K new businesses launched in September, well above the historical average. The improvement in the Experian Small Business Index and the improving risk metrics for small business owners’ consumer trades suggest the lending market remains healthy for small businesses. Explore Experian Small Business Index Related Posts
The Experian Small Business Index™ declined 9 points to 38.2 in August, which is nearly level with last year at this time.
The Experian Small Business Index declined by 0.7 in June, but remains well above last years level on strong small business sentiment.
