Small Business Credit Insights

Women-owned small businesses make up roughly 34 percent of new business starts. They are among the businesses most heavily impacted by the pandemic, and minority-owned women-led small businesses were the fastest-growing segment coming out of COVID. Despite solid growth, Women business owners face significant barriers to success. We studied a large dataset of women-owned small businesses to understand their unique needs and challenges. The result is a fascinating look at a powerful small business segment. In this talk you will learn: · Credit behaviors · Top industry sectors · Areas of opportunity for lenders Watch Recording

We've all been experiencing higher prices for food, housing, and certainly at the gasoline pump. If these economic headwinds have  raised concerns about how small businesses are being impacted, we have some fresh perspectives in the Spring 2022 Beyond the Trends report. Beyond The Trends offers a unique view of the small business economy based on what we see in the data. With up to date information on over 25 million active businesses and how they perform from a credit standpoint. Here’s my quick take on what’s in our latest Beyond The Trends Report The next 12 months will be filled with headwinds and mines for small businesses. These entities have been shoring up resources, operations, building in cost increases, and creating backup supplier networks as supply chain disruption and inflation will batter the ship through 2023. Highlights: Consumers seek higher paying jobs, creating labor shortages in blue collar industries, as wage gains are being eaten away by increasing U.S. inflation. Transportation and the utility industries have seen a 69% increase in delinquent balances tied closely to the increase in U.S. inflation. A 4X increase in delinquent balances associated with mining as the US took steps to move away from fossil fuel. Commercial card lending grew 9.9% in the 4th quarter, even as delinquency rates began their upward climb. Energy Takes Center Stage Energy costs are hitting margins and impacting delivery of goods and services. US energy costs  were up 27% in January according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. These costs have been rising sharply since March 2021 and will be exacerbated in the 1st quarter 2022 by global reaction to the Russian incursion in Ukraine. Energy supply chains will be disrupted by sanctions and higher transport costs. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Inflation Looms Consumers and small businesses will feel the pinch of lower supply and higher costs. Inflation, outside this event and on the rise, will remain above the Federal Reserve target of 2% through the end of 2022, even as the Fed raises rates and begins to reduce their balance sheet. The US supply chain will be in a slow recovery mode as infrastructure stimulus and global markets return to capacity. Small businesses are adjusting to a high demand low supply market through 2023. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Download Spring Beyond The Trends Report

Experian Business Information Services has just released the Q4 2021 Main Street Report. In addition to the Omicron surge, which significantly impacted labor and consumer engagement, an inflationary surge, the most significant increase since 1982, coupled with supply-and-demand imbalances, weighed heavily on US small businesses, making a notable impact on consumer sentiment. While workers were getting raises in a tight job market, rapid price increases eroded consumers’ earning power. Average wage earnings went up by 4.0% in Q4 ’21 vs. the previous year, yet a 7.5% increase in inflation results in a net decline in real earnings. Workers’ money is not going as far as it used to. Download the latest report to get the full detail on Q4 2021 small business credit performance. Download Q4 2021 Report Join us for the Q4 Quarterly Business Credit Review We will be going in-depth on the Q4 business credit trends in our upcoming Quarterly Business Credit Review. We look forward to sharing the latest small business trends with you. Register for Webinar

This perception of the marketplace has been a concern of consumers and small business owners, in the US, as they manage through the pandemic hampered marketplace. Small businesses are adjusting to a high demand/ low supply market that is expected to continue through 2022. The ability to move raw materials to manufacturers, products across borders, find space in warehouses, and put products on the shelf has become challenging as pandemic variants add pressure to a slowly recovering supply infrastructure. Large market participants will find disproportionate advantage, over small business competitors, widens as distributors focus on their largest clients and small clients feel cost and availability squeeze. Consumers store front engagement will increase, with a tangible delivery advantage, as distrust grows in a digital only storefronts ability to deliver on time. Here's my quick take on what's in our latest Beyond The Trends Report The Experian Winter 2021 Beyond the Trend report looks at consumer willingness and ability to spend behavior tied to the bets commercial supply chain industry participants are making, to ensure demand is met, emerging from the heart of the pandemic: Originations for new businesses, with less than a year in business and already participating in the commercial credit market, are up 157% from pre-pandemic levels. 36% of active U.S. businesses have been operating less than 1 year, as the spike in new business applications continue to be elevated. Commercial lending up 95% from same time last year to supply chain participants (Manufacturing, wholesale, retail, transportation, and warehouse) Although delinquency rates are historically low rates for wholesalers (Up 600%) and retailers (Up 101%) have been on the rise a components and inventories are slow to arrive. To operate at full capacity, small businesses will need consumers willing to spend. The fed will begin to taper and raise rates much earlier than expected, March 2022, to add downward pressure to inflation. Small businesses are betting on growth as investors view variants as a bump in the road vs a blocker. New business applications continued to roll at ~400k a month in 2021. This untapped market expansion will drive traditional lenders to reassess the risk of engaging emerging businesses in their first year of operation with limited historical commercial performance. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Supply chain bottlenecks will slowly dissipate. We expect to see variability in product availability as goods are delivered which will create scenarios of over-supply of some products while others remain tied up in transit. Lenders and creditors should monitor commercial health of businesses they interact with directly and indirectly to ensure portfolio stability and accurate risk based pricing. 2022 will be a recovery year for the US market. Consumers keep shopping! Small businesses keep fighting! The shelves will be full soon.     Download Winter 21/22 Report

By all indications, the supply chain challenge of this year will stretch well into 2022. Risk managers and finance departments are working in real-time to pivot, and keep customers satisfied, and while there’s currently no silver bullet to port delays, the lack of truck drivers or warehouse space, there are new strategies to consider. Join us for a very special supplier management webinar.   Will your current suppliers be capable of delivering or do you need to pivot? In our upcoming webinar our panel of experts will talk about simplifying supplier discovery and diversification. In this talk you will learn: How to conduct a world-class supplier risk assessment program How to identify look-a-like suppliers in specific industries How to filter on multiple risk factors and more We will also be taking your questions, it promises to be an illuminating discussion, we hope you can join us. Register for Webinar  

Experian and Moody's Analytics have just released the Q3  2021 Main Street Report. The report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape and offers commentary on business credit trends and what they mean for lenders and small businesses. Labor shortages, wage pressure, and supply chain issues challenge small businesses   Small business credit performance was mixed in the third quarter as businesses dealt with the COVID-19 Delta variant.  Early-stage delinquency rates rose modestly while late state delinquency and bankruptcy rates fell decisively. With daily COVID cases falling, demand for goods and services should rise in coming quarters.  Downside risks are concentrated on the supply side with businesses struggling to hire workers and dealing with supply chain stress. Early-stage delinquency rates rose in the third quarter with servicers reporting that 1.27% of small business credit balances were 31-90 days past due. While higher than the second quarter’s 1.19% rate, performance was only slightly worse than a year ago and significantly better than the pandemic high of 1.66%. Perhaps more notable was the sharp drop in late-stage delinquency, with 1.92% of balances reported as being more than 91 days past due. Supply chain issues are impacting both the availability and price of key inputs.  Nowhere is this more apparent than in the semiconductor industry, where bottlenecks have shut down the manufacture of entire carlines. If you would like to get the full analysis of the data behind the latest Main Street Report, watch our Quarterly Business Credit Review webinar. Just scan the code or go to the short link and remember to download your copy of the latest report. Download Latest Report

The Beyond The Trends Report - Fall 2021 Out Now!   Did you know that there are about a million restaurants in the U.S? And those restaurants employ nine million people?  As we prepared the latest Beyond the Trends report for Fall 2021, I took a deep dive into the restaurant industry in our small business data set to explore how restaurants were performing through the pandemic and how resilient they are now. Here's a quick snippet — the SBA's Restaurant Revitalization fund delivered 74,498 grants accounting for $22.4B in funds for May through June of 2021. It's a shot in the arm for restaurants. Here's how the funds were distributed based on annual sales. Distribution of Restaurants by Annual Sales Size source: SBA, Experian The RRF program has done well servicing a diverse set of applicants and underserved community segments. The Women-owned businesses made up almost half of the recipients Veteran-owned businesses were only 5% of the program. Veterans received fewer loans overall but had much higher average loan amounts awarded Restaurants in LMI designated areas were over a quarter of the program Restaurants in lower socioeconomic areas were over a third of the program's recipients Would you like to learn about this and other trends impacting small business? Download the Fall 2021 Beyond The Trends Report! Download the Latest Report

  Gain the ability to identify the most stable and profitable small business clients Join our webinar, in partnership with the Small Business Financial Exchange (SBFE): Disruptive Strategies to Empower Small Business Lending Tuesday, September 21, 2021, 10:00 a.m. PDT | 1:00 p.m. EDT Learn how to target small business growth opportunities and enhance the customer experience through automated credit-risk decisioning, with special focus on: Advanced methodologies for developing and leveraging new data attributes Advantages to having explainable, machine-learned models Effortless data visualization to conceptualize growth opportunities Ability to target populations and product mix for financial inclusion Register for Webinar

Subscribe To Our YouTube Channel [Gary]: I'm joined by Yvon Desieux, a Senior Director in our product team, and Yvon is responsible for product strategy and driving innovation in lending through the creation of products and applications for commercial lenders.  Sitting next to Yvon is Mike Myers, our Vice President of Product Management here in Business Information, and he leads the product team and AgileWorks Innovation Lab. Welcome to Business Chat, gentlemen. The COVID-19 pandemic spurred a wave of innovation in e-commerce, in restaurant delivery services, in FinTech, digital has raised the stakes. There's an expectation with consumers and businesses that client experiences should be on an even playing field across industries. But when it comes to applying for loans, particularly on the commercial side, those processes can be quite manual. One of the things that speed things along is real-time, financial statement data. What is real-time financial statement data? [Yvon]: Well, simply, financial statement data in real-time is just when lenders are able to access accounting software via the Internet, to power their lending decisions, and our new product offering Experian Datashare, provides this capability with the power of owner permission data. With this permissioning, small business owners are empowered with the ability to leverage their own financial data, to apply for the loans and other services that they need. So, unlike a credit report, permissioning puts the owner in control of what transactional data they share, to qualify for the loans and lines of credit that they need to keep their businesses running. So this consented data provides personalization balanced with privacy for businesses and growth, balanced with accountability for the lenders. What problem is real-time financial statement data solving for lenders? [Yvon]: The feedback that we've received falls into four-tier categories. It's revenue growth creating operational efficiencies, decreasing risk, and creating a better client experience through a modern digital journey that's easy to understand and delivers faster decisions and quicker access to the financing that the small businesses need. Mike, when you talk to clients about digital transformation, what are the things that are keeping them up at night? What are they most concerned with? [Mike]: I think all of our clients, to some degree, are going through a technical transformation, or we often call a path to modernization, and Experian is in the same boat. You know, it's hard to stay on top of technology and really leverage the cloud and be able to get new products, new services, new capabilities to market quickly. Some of the biggest challenges our clients expressed to us are how do we operate in what's become a very different environment over the last year, year, and a half with COVID. Things have moved at a much more rapid pace, as far as digitization. So the interactions with their clients have changed. It's become a bit more impersonal. It's become a bit more quick and with a sense of urgency, and many clients are struggling to do everything online and do it at a breakneck speed. This is often where API's and with different technologies, we can keep pace and help our clients integrate data, access data, and ultimately render decisions to their end-users in a much quicker and more time-efficient way. Can you talk a little bit about Experian's API Hub and getting access to our data? [Mike]: The API economy has been here for many years, and our clients are integrating our data and, you know, putting it into their systems so their users can access data real-time. And Datashare is one of those services where this data can be integrated into our client's systems. And there's no drop-off, there's no manual, or swivel chair type activity where you're going to multiple systems. It becomes a much more efficient process. And not only the client wins, but also an applicant gets a much more rapid decision and can go ahead and power their business. Can financial statement data play a role in helping emerging and underserved businesses grow? If so, how? [Yvon]: Yeah, for new and small businesses that haven't yet established business credit and rely on the owner's personal credit profile for lending decisions, Datashare gives them the ability to share their financial statements and show the financial health of the business. This expanded data can be used, in the decision-making process in addition to the standard bureau data to create more approvals. By permissioning data, these businesses are able to move out of an unscorable or subprime, hard money loan bracket,  into a space that helps them qualify for more traditional loans and lines of credit, with better rates in terms. [Gary]: Mike, I've got another slide here; businesses of color, have been severely impacted by COVID. You can see some of these stats here. 30% of black business owners say that access to credit is the biggest challenge in the next 12 months. 47% said they didn't apply for financing because they did not think they would be approved, only 37% received all of the financing they sought. Recently on a CBA webinar with a Experian, Janelle Williams from the Atlanta Fed was saying that 83% of the PPP loans went to white-owned businesses, but only 1.9% went to businesses of color. How can Experian DataShare help underserved businesses of color? [Mike]: Yeah, Gary, you're really touching on a key point here. You know, small businesses, power our economy. They make up the majority of businesses out there. And based on that recent stat you and Yvon just discussed about new business startups. There's more than ever, and we all have to do a better job of making sure there's an equal playing field when it comes to accessing capital, whether it's trade credit or financial packages, to help them manage their cash flow. And that became more evident than ever again, with the pandemic and the sudden shift in the economy. It became more and more challenging for many small businesses to manage their cash flow, pay their employees, and really see a path forward. So data share is exciting in a number of ways. What excites me is that it now combines a historical process that was done in a much more offline manual way. And now can be done in real-time. And if you start combining that with historical payment information, historical public record filings, in addition to real-time financials, you have a winning combination that can provide a clear view of a small business's financial status and real-time view. So not only the historical, which is a great way to predict future payment behavior, but also the most current accounts receivable accounts payable information that can really help you understand what their future holds. How can DataShare deepen the relationships between lenders and the small businesses that they serve? [Yvon]: Datashare drives operational efficiency. So, it allows the lenders to receive the financial statement data in a standardized format. This is regardless of the size of the business or the source of the accounting data. It drastically reduces the level of manual effort required to underwrite a loan. And it automates much of the time spent on the administrative tasks associated with the lending process. So this means that relationship managers and underwriters and credit teams are going to spend less time creating reports and gathering documents and chasing clients. And they're going to be able to spend more time holding,  we hope, value-driven conversations to deepen the relationships they have with their clients and help those businesses grow and expand in line with their needs. [Gary]: So those small businesses are going to experience greater efficiency, ease of doing business with their lender. The lender has more time to devote and work more closely with those clients, but also maybe the underserved businesses, the unscored businesses, they have that additional insight to see really how that business is doing and how they can grow that relationship with them. Am I right? [Yvon]: Yeah, absolutely. Time is the big commodity, and speed kills. So what Datashare allows lenders to do is negate all of the wasted time and effort spent onboarding and processing clients. And they can dig into that live transactional data, and get to understand the business, and perhaps share insights with the business owners that even the owners don't know. So, it allows both sides to work more efficiently and more profitably. [Gary]: Are you seeing a change in perception on the part of the business owners of today? I mean, a lot of the Millennial business owners they're used to mobile technology, they're used to delivery services on-demand services. Do you see a change in perception in permissioning, access to financial statement data? [Yvon]: Yeah, actually, we have. We typically see adoption rates as high as 90% when it comes to small businesses that are actively looking for financing. So these are motivated clients who typically go with a lender that can provide the quickest time to cash, and Datashare typically cuts down that time to about 65%. We live in a rapidly developing world where digital adoption is at an all-time high, and the same is true for small businesses. As we shift from the stacks of paper and filing cabinets, both lenders and borrowers see the benefits of leveraging technology to make their organizations more efficient and profitable. The annual review process is one pain point that we've heard a lot from clients. Is this something that could help clients minimize some of that pressure, that's a real stressor on bandwidth? [Yvon]: Yeah, absolutely. Datashare automates the monthly, quarterly, or annual review process. So when a small business permissions their data, lenders are able to choose the data refresh frequency, that is also permissioned. So, combined with covenant monitoring Datashare is able to flag accounts that fall out of an agreed risk threshold, which saves the credit team valuable time having to review their entire book of business and allows them to strategically focus on problem accounts and mitigate risk before it gets out of hand. [Gary]: So, any further thoughts on how Experian DataShare can help lenders or the small businesses they serve? [Yvon]: Yeah. Our focus will continue to be on finding ways to automate processes and provide insights into the financial statement data that we acquire. We'll continue to receive feedback from the clients that we've partnered with and integrate that into our roadmap to create new products and services that will benefit both lenders and the borrowers that they serve. [Mike]: Yeah. I would add Gary that we're at a really interesting time. You know, there's the speed and the in-depth view of a small business's financials at our client's fingertips that can help equal that playing field and open up financial opportunities for businesses of all shapes, sizes, and colors, and Experian Datashare helps with that. Combine that with our historical trade and public record data, and you've got a winning solution for both our clients who are offering the financial vehicles, as well as the applicants, the small businesses out there that need help. And that historically may have been on the outside looking in. Now they have an opportunity to share their financial situation, a picture that can help them move their business forward and access capital when they most need it. [Gary]: Well, this has been super informative, guys. I want to thank you for taking the time to come on Business Chat. And if you would like to learn more about how real-time financial statement data can help small businesses, Experian recently published a free ebook perspective paper. We'll provide a link and a QR code for you to download. If you have any questions, of course, feel free to reach out to your Experian account representative to get a conversation started about helping small businesses grow through innovative solutions like Experian DataShare. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Download Perspective Paper Learn more about alternative data Related Posts