Experian Commercial Pulse Report
Outstanding student loan debt in the U.S. has reached an all-time high of $1.63 trillion, and the ripple effects are being felt far beyond the personal finance arena. This unprecedented debt burden is now shaping the way many small business owners borrow, manage credit, and maintain financial stability.
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This week, the Commercial Pulse Report reveals a clear and growing link between student loan obligations and small business credit performance. For lenders, policymakers, and business leaders, this is a trend that can’t be ignored.
The Scale of the Challenge
Student loan balances have surged over 550% since 2003, rising from roughly $250 billion to more than $1.6 trillion in early 2025. Even during the pandemic-era repayment moratorium, when interest was frozen and payments paused, balances continued to grow — albeit modestly, by just 2.9%.
Policy shifts, such as the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are set to reshape the student loan landscape yet again — from changes in borrowing limits to the sunset of certain repayment plans. As these changes take effect, they will inevitably influence the personal financial health of millions, including business owners who are navigating both consumer and commercial credit obligations.
Student Loan Debt Among Business Owners
Experian’s data shows that approximately 5% of business owners currently carry student loan debt — up from 4% in 2019. While that may seem like a small slice of the business population, the growth rate is significant and points to a deeper shift in borrowing dynamics.
Also, since 2020, when some federal student loan repayments were forgiven or paused, business owners with student loans have been opening a larger share of new commercial credit accounts. In 2019, they represented 11% of new account openings. By 2025, that share had risen to 14%.
This suggests that temporary relief on personal loan payments may have freed up capacity for some entrepreneurs to access additional business credit — a trend worth watching as repayment requirements return in full force.
Risk & Performance Differences
Our data also shows clear performance gaps between business owners with and without student loans:
Delinquency rates are higher for those with unpaid government-backed student loans, especially among newer businesses. In 2023, 4% of new businesses with these loans had a 90+ day delinquency, compared to 3% for owners without student loans.
Credit risk scores tell a similar story: owners without student loans average a score of 58, versus 53 for owners with unpaid government loans.
Business stability also differs. Owners without student loans tend to have longer operating histories, higher commercial balances, and more active credit accounts — all indicators of stronger credit health. For lenders, this means personal debt load isn’t just a side note; it can be a leading indicator of small business credit behavior and repayment risk.
Implications for Lenders & Policymakers
As personal and commercial credit health become increasingly interconnected, financial institutions may need to refine their risk models to account for personal debt obligations like student loans.
- Underwriting: Integrating consumer credit insights into business credit assessments could help identify early warning signs.
- Portfolio management: Segmenting accounts by student loan status may reveal patterns in repayment behavior and growth potential.
- Policy considerations: As student loan repayment policies shift, small business access to credit , and their ability to maintain healthy repayment patterns could change in tandem.
The $1.63 trillion student loan burden isn’t just a consumer finance story — it’s a small business credit story, too. As more entrepreneurs carry this debt, the link between personal obligations and business performance will only grow stronger. Understanding and monitoring this crossover trend is essential for informed decision-making, whether you’re extending credit, managing a portfolio, or shaping policy.
For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report.
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As temperatures rise across the U.S., so does the nation’s appetite for travel—and the Leisure & Hospitality sector is feeling the heat. In this week's Commercial Pulse Report, we examine how soaring consumer demand intersects with evolving credit conditions for businesses in travel, lodging, and transportation. Travel Rebounds, But the Story Is Mixed By every measure, Americans are traveling in droves. AAA projected over 72 million domestic travelers over the July 4th holiday—setting a record. Meanwhile, Memorial Day travel surged across all transportation types, especially road trips, which saw a 3.0% year-over-year increase. However, despite six new TSA checkpoint records in June, major airlines have cut forward-looking forecasts, signaling a notable shift: travelers are increasingly opting for alternatives like road and rail over the skies. This change in travel behavior has direct implications for how different business subsectors access and manage credit. Infrastructure Drives Commercial Credit Trends The Leisure & Hospitality industry is broad and fragmented—from mega-airlines and hotel chains to small sightseeing operators and independent RV campgrounds. This diversity is reflected in commercial credit data. Businesses with heavy infrastructure needs—like airlines and hotels—tend to carry higher loan and credit line balances. Airlines, in particular, average the highest number of commercial trades, a reflection of their large-scale operations and capital intensity. Hotels also hold sizeable credit, but with a twist. While revenues have rebounded beyond pre-pandemic levels, occupancy rates remain flat due to an increase in room supply from new construction. The hotel pipeline stood at 6,211 projects with over 722,000 rooms as of Q3 2024, signaling sustained investment even amid margin pressures. Rental Cars: High Volume, Higher Risk The rental car sector stands out—but not in a good way. Despite being a key enabler of domestic travel, these businesses exhibit the highest commercial credit risk across the industry. According to Experian’s Commercial Risk Classification, 32% of rental car companies are considered Medium-High to High Risk, compared to less than 10% in categories like air transport and sightseeing. The elevated risk may be due to a combination of factors: fleet acquisition costs, multi-location exposure, and operational disruptions during the pandemic. While credit trades in this segment remain high, inquiries have declined over recent years, possibly reflecting tightening lending standards or constrained demand for new credit. Encouraging Risk Trends—With Exceptions Across the broader Leisure & Hospitality industry, there’s been a decline in commercial credit risk since 2020. The share of businesses classified as Medium-High or High Risk dropped from 11.7% to 8.5% as of April 2025. Most firms now fall into the Medium Risk category—a sign of normalization in the sector. Delinquency rates remain low (under 1%), and the average Intelliscore Plus v2 score has remained stable across most subsectors. Still, credit conditions vary sharply by business type, underlining the importance of nuanced risk assessment in portfolio management. Smarter Credit Allocation Starts with Subsector-Level Insight The summer travel surge is a powerful reminder of the sector’s resilience—but not all players are experiencing the boom equally. For credit professionals and commercial lenders, the latest data from Experian suggests a growing divide: infrastructure-heavy firms are leaning into credit, while high-risk subsectors like rental cars may warrant closer scrutiny. Whether your clients are in air transport or roadside accommodations, understanding these credit trends will be key to navigating the second half of 2025. ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
