Experian Commercial Pulse Report | 4/8/2025
Experian has released our April 8th Commercial Pulse Report. As the U.S. economy moves through a phase of recalibration, this week’s Experian Commercial Pulse Report highlights one area in particular that’s undergoing notable change—the labor market.
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Macroeconomic Highlights
Inflation eased to 2.8% in February, while job growth remained solid with 228,000 new jobs added in March. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%, and consumer sentiment dropped to 57.0—the lowest since late 2022. Despite rising wages, economic uncertainty is growing, reflected in cautious optimism among small businesses.
The U.S. Labor Market Presents a Paradox for Business Owners
While macroeconomic indicators show some signs of resilience—such as moderate job growth and easing inflation—recent research zeroes in on the evolving dynamics between workers and employers. For small businesses navigating talent shortages, shifting workforce expectations, and rising labor costs, understanding these trends is critical.
High Satisfaction, But Growing Uncertainty
Despite concerns about a slowing job market, job satisfaction among American workers remains high. According to a recent Pew survey featured in the report, only 12 percent of workers report dissatisfaction with their current jobs. However, 25 percent say they’re likely to look for a new role in the coming months. This disconnect suggests that workers, while content, are watching the labor market closely and weighing their options—especially as job openings become harder to come by and hiring slows across several sectors.
Unionization: Fading Membership, Rising Support
Union membership has steadily declined for decades, now representing just 9.9% of the U.S. workforce or about 14.3 million workers. Yet paradoxically, public support for unions is rising, particularly among younger employees. A Gallup survey cited in the report found that over 70% of Americans now approve of unions. While many remain undecided about joining, younger workers are increasingly labeled as “union curious”—interested in collective action but unsure of the long-term implications. At the same time, older employees are dominating union rolls, with workers aged 55 and over now making up 24.3% of union members—a nearly 80% increase from 2000.
The Business Impact of Unionization
For employers, particularly small businesses, these shifting sentiments present new challenges. Unionization can drive up payroll and benefits costs, slow down decision-making, and foster adversarial dynamics between leadership and employees. The report also highlights that union-heavy environments often experience higher operating costs and reduced managerial flexibility—factors that can be especially burdensome for resource-strapped small businesses.
However, the rise in union interest can’t be ignored. In today’s competitive labor landscape, addressing employee concerns proactively—particularly around compensation, benefits, and workplace culture—may help business owners retain talent and avoid labor disputes.
Why This Matters Now
These labor market dynamics are unfolding at a time when small business optimism, while slightly improving, remains cautious. The Experian Small Business Index rose to 45.4 in February—its second monthly increase—suggesting that while owners are willing to invest in their businesses, they remain watchful of economic uncertainty and evolving workforce demands. Download this week’s report for more insights on the evolving labor market and more.
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✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Want to learn more? Download the full Commercial Pulse Report for April 8th, 2025.
As temperatures rise across the U.S., so does the nation’s appetite for travel—and the Leisure & Hospitality sector is feeling the heat. In this week's Commercial Pulse Report, we examine how soaring consumer demand intersects with evolving credit conditions for businesses in travel, lodging, and transportation. Travel Rebounds, But the Story Is Mixed By every measure, Americans are traveling in droves. AAA projected over 72 million domestic travelers over the July 4th holiday—setting a record. Meanwhile, Memorial Day travel surged across all transportation types, especially road trips, which saw a 3.0% year-over-year increase. However, despite six new TSA checkpoint records in June, major airlines have cut forward-looking forecasts, signaling a notable shift: travelers are increasingly opting for alternatives like road and rail over the skies. This change in travel behavior has direct implications for how different business subsectors access and manage credit. Infrastructure Drives Commercial Credit Trends The Leisure & Hospitality industry is broad and fragmented—from mega-airlines and hotel chains to small sightseeing operators and independent RV campgrounds. This diversity is reflected in commercial credit data. Businesses with heavy infrastructure needs—like airlines and hotels—tend to carry higher loan and credit line balances. Airlines, in particular, average the highest number of commercial trades, a reflection of their large-scale operations and capital intensity. Hotels also hold sizeable credit, but with a twist. While revenues have rebounded beyond pre-pandemic levels, occupancy rates remain flat due to an increase in room supply from new construction. The hotel pipeline stood at 6,211 projects with over 722,000 rooms as of Q3 2024, signaling sustained investment even amid margin pressures. Rental Cars: High Volume, Higher Risk The rental car sector stands out—but not in a good way. Despite being a key enabler of domestic travel, these businesses exhibit the highest commercial credit risk across the industry. According to Experian’s Commercial Risk Classification, 32% of rental car companies are considered Medium-High to High Risk, compared to less than 10% in categories like air transport and sightseeing. The elevated risk may be due to a combination of factors: fleet acquisition costs, multi-location exposure, and operational disruptions during the pandemic. While credit trades in this segment remain high, inquiries have declined over recent years, possibly reflecting tightening lending standards or constrained demand for new credit. Encouraging Risk Trends—With Exceptions Across the broader Leisure & Hospitality industry, there’s been a decline in commercial credit risk since 2020. The share of businesses classified as Medium-High or High Risk dropped from 11.7% to 8.5% as of April 2025. Most firms now fall into the Medium Risk category—a sign of normalization in the sector. Delinquency rates remain low (under 1%), and the average Intelliscore Plus v2 score has remained stable across most subsectors. Still, credit conditions vary sharply by business type, underlining the importance of nuanced risk assessment in portfolio management. Smarter Credit Allocation Starts with Subsector-Level Insight The summer travel surge is a powerful reminder of the sector’s resilience—but not all players are experiencing the boom equally. For credit professionals and commercial lenders, the latest data from Experian suggests a growing divide: infrastructure-heavy firms are leaning into credit, while high-risk subsectors like rental cars may warrant closer scrutiny. Whether your clients are in air transport or roadside accommodations, understanding these credit trends will be key to navigating the second half of 2025. ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
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