Experian has released our April 8th Commercial Pulse Report. As the U.S. economy moves through a phase of recalibration, this week’s Experian Commercial Pulse Report highlights one area in particular that’s undergoing notable change—the labor market.
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Macroeconomic Highlights
Inflation eased to 2.8% in February, while job growth remained solid with 228,000 new jobs added in March. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%, and consumer sentiment dropped to 57.0—the lowest since late 2022. Despite rising wages, economic uncertainty is growing, reflected in cautious optimism among small businesses.
The U.S. Labor Market Presents a Paradox for Business Owners
While macroeconomic indicators show some signs of resilience—such as moderate job growth and easing inflation—recent research zeroes in on the evolving dynamics between workers and employers. For small businesses navigating talent shortages, shifting workforce expectations, and rising labor costs, understanding these trends is critical.
High Satisfaction, But Growing Uncertainty
Despite concerns about a slowing job market, job satisfaction among American workers remains high. According to a recent Pew survey featured in the report, only 12 percent of workers report dissatisfaction with their current jobs. However, 25 percent say they’re likely to look for a new role in the coming months. This disconnect suggests that workers, while content, are watching the labor market closely and weighing their options—especially as job openings become harder to come by and hiring slows across several sectors.
Unionization: Fading Membership, Rising Support
Union membership has steadily declined for decades, now representing just 9.9% of the U.S. workforce or about 14.3 million workers. Yet paradoxically, public support for unions is rising, particularly among younger employees. A Gallup survey cited in the report found that over 70% of Americans now approve of unions. While many remain undecided about joining, younger workers are increasingly labeled as “union curious”—interested in collective action but unsure of the long-term implications. At the same time, older employees are dominating union rolls, with workers aged 55 and over now making up 24.3% of union members—a nearly 80% increase from 2000.
The Business Impact of Unionization
For employers, particularly small businesses, these shifting sentiments present new challenges. Unionization can drive up payroll and benefits costs, slow down decision-making, and foster adversarial dynamics between leadership and employees. The report also highlights that union-heavy environments often experience higher operating costs and reduced managerial flexibility—factors that can be especially burdensome for resource-strapped small businesses.
However, the rise in union interest can’t be ignored. In today’s competitive labor landscape, addressing employee concerns proactively—particularly around compensation, benefits, and workplace culture—may help business owners retain talent and avoid labor disputes.
Why This Matters Now
These labor market dynamics are unfolding at a time when small business optimism, while slightly improving, remains cautious. The Experian Small Business Index rose to 45.4 in February—its second monthly increase—suggesting that while owners are willing to invest in their businesses, they remain watchful of economic uncertainty and evolving workforce demands. Download this week’s report for more insights on the evolving labor market and more.
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Want to learn more? Download the full Commercial Pulse Report for April 8th, 2025.
Rising costs are continuing to squeeze American wallets — and perhaps nowhere is that more apparent than in the food sector. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report (October 14, 2025), food prices are having a profound impact on where and how consumers choose to eat. With the Consumer Price Index for food rising 3.2% year-over-year, both full-service and limited-service restaurants are feeling the heat.
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Specifically, Full-Service Restaurant prices have surged 4.6%, while Limited-Service locations have seen more modest increases of 3.2%, the lowest pace in over a year. As price-sensitive consumers pull back on discretionary spending, Experian’s data shows a notable shift toward more affordable dining options—or a return to eating at home.
Credit Demand Is Strong, But Approval May Be Slipping
Even with shifting consumer habits, restaurants are not sitting idle. Experian’s credit data reveals that both Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurants are actively seeking commercial credit — a likely sign of increased working capital needs in the face of inflation and tighter margins.
However, access to that credit appears to be narrowing.
Commercial inquiries from Full-Service Restaurants have risen to 1.7x pre-pandemic levels.
Limited-Service Restaurants follow closely at 1.5x.
Yet the number of credit-active Limited-Service establishments has declined, suggesting either a slowdown in approvals or reduced eligibility.
This contrast implies that demand for financing is rising faster than approval rates, especially for smaller or newer businesses trying to stay competitive amid rising costs.
Shrinking Credit Limits, Rising Utilization
Restaurants are not only facing tighter access but also leaner terms. Average credit limits for new commercial card accounts have fallen significantly since 2021:
Full-Service Restaurants: Down from $11,500 to under $6,000
Limited-Service Restaurants: Also trending downward
Groceries (used as a benchmark for at-home eating): Down from $13,000 to $9,000
At the same time, credit utilization rates are climbing — an early warning sign that businesses are relying more heavily on revolving credit to manage day-to-day operations.
Full-Service Restaurants now use 31.9% of available credit, up 4.6 points since 2023.
Limited-Service Restaurants trail close behind at 31.8%.
Groceries come in at 28.8%, showing increased pressure even in the at-home dining sector.
Taken together, this combination of lower credit limits and higher utilization points to a tightening credit environment, which may be challenging for restaurants to navigate through the holiday and post-holiday seasons.
Commercial Risk Trends Tell a Mixed Story
One of the more nuanced insights in Experian’s report is how different restaurant types are weathering the current environment from a risk perspective:
Full-Service Restaurants show only a modest decline in commercial risk scores (–0.8 points), suggesting relative resilience despite financial pressures.
Limited-Service Restaurants, interestingly, saw a +1.4 point improvement in risk scores—indicating increased stability and better adaptation to current market conditions.
In contrast, grocery retailers—the benchmark for “eat-at-home” sectors—experienced a -1.8 point drop in their risk scores, highlighting greater strain in that segment.
This divergence reflects a growing consumer shift toward lower-cost food options like quick-service dining, potentially at the expense of both full-service restaurants and grocers.
What It Means for Lenders and Business Strategy
These trends carry significant implications for financial institutions, credit providers, and small business advisors:
Rising inquiries + shrinking credit limits = greater risk of liquidity stress
Stronger risk scores for Limited-Service = opportunity for more targeted lending or product offerings
Elevated utilization rates = need to monitor credit performance closely, especially for revolving credit
For business owners and operators, understanding these dynamics is crucial to building resilience in a volatile market. Strategic decisions around financing, menu pricing, staffing, and technology adoption will likely make or break performance through the next few quarters.
Conclusion: A Sector Under Pressure — but not out
While economic headwinds persist, the restaurant industry shows remarkable adaptability. Whether it’s shifting toward leaner operations, targeting lower-income consumers, or increasing credit usage to bridge cash flow gaps, the sector is evolving in real-time.
As always, Experian’s insights provide a critical lens into these movements—helping lenders, business leaders, and policymakers make smarter decisions amid uncertainty.
For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report.
✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Download the Commercial Pulse Report
Visit Commercial Insights Hub
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