Experian Commercial Pulse Report | 3/25/2025
Experian has released our March 25th Commercial Pulse Report. In addition to mixed economic conditions, we focus in on the growing problem of small business financial fraud.
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Macroeconomic Highlights
In February, inflation dipped to 2.8%, with core inflation hitting its lowest level since 2021. The Fed held interest rates steady, reflecting ongoing caution about the economic outlook. Unemployment remained stable at 4.1%, and rising wages helped sustain consumer spending. Retail sales saw a modest rebound, though year-over-year growth slowed, and consumer sentiment dropped 27% from last year. The Experian Small Business Index rose slightly to 41.5 but remains down from a year ago, as easing inflation and credit conditions offer cautious optimism for small business lending.
The Rising Threat of Small Business Financial Fraud
According to the latest Experian data, financial fraud against small businesses has increased by 70% since the start of the pandemic, costing billions annually. As fraud tactics become more sophisticated and digital channels continue to expand, the pressure on lenders and small businesses is mounting.
During the pandemic, e-commerce surged to 16.4% of total retail sales. Although it briefly declined post-pandemic, this share has returned to its peak by the end of 2024. This shift has dramatically increased the size of consumers’ digital footprints, making them more vulnerable to cybercrime. A staggering 8.8 billion records were found on the dark web in 2024 alone—more than double the amount reported in 2022.
Among the most concerning statistics from the report:
- 65% of financial institutions reported an increase in fraud incidents in 2024.
- 46% of small business loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud.
- 31% of small businesses experienced fraudulent lenders or scams during the lending process.
- AI-driven scams are projected to result in $40 billion in losses by 2027.
- 80% of fraud events now occur on digital channels such as online or mobile banking.
- 64% of institutions plan to boost their fraud prevention investments in 2025.
These figures illustrate just how pervasive and costly commercial fraud has become. Yet, there is reason for cautious optimism. Experian notes that while fraud levels remain elevated, there are signs that the trends are beginning to normalize compared to the extreme conditions seen during the peak of the pandemic. This includes a reduction in “bust-out” fraud—scenarios where a business intentionally takes on debt it has no intention of repaying.
Financial institutions are responding by investing in AI-powered analytics and enhanced fraud detection platforms. These tools are proving critical in detecting and intercepting fraudulent applications in real time. Additionally, more organizations are forming cross-sector partnerships and joining fraud consortia to share intelligence and improve collective defenses.
To stay ahead of the latest trends:
✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Want to learn more? Download the full Commercial Pulse Report for March 25, 2025.
As temperatures rise across the U.S., so does the nation’s appetite for travel—and the Leisure & Hospitality sector is feeling the heat. In this week's Commercial Pulse Report, we examine how soaring consumer demand intersects with evolving credit conditions for businesses in travel, lodging, and transportation. Travel Rebounds, But the Story Is Mixed By every measure, Americans are traveling in droves. AAA projected over 72 million domestic travelers over the July 4th holiday—setting a record. Meanwhile, Memorial Day travel surged across all transportation types, especially road trips, which saw a 3.0% year-over-year increase. However, despite six new TSA checkpoint records in June, major airlines have cut forward-looking forecasts, signaling a notable shift: travelers are increasingly opting for alternatives like road and rail over the skies. This change in travel behavior has direct implications for how different business subsectors access and manage credit. Infrastructure Drives Commercial Credit Trends The Leisure & Hospitality industry is broad and fragmented—from mega-airlines and hotel chains to small sightseeing operators and independent RV campgrounds. This diversity is reflected in commercial credit data. Businesses with heavy infrastructure needs—like airlines and hotels—tend to carry higher loan and credit line balances. Airlines, in particular, average the highest number of commercial trades, a reflection of their large-scale operations and capital intensity. Hotels also hold sizeable credit, but with a twist. While revenues have rebounded beyond pre-pandemic levels, occupancy rates remain flat due to an increase in room supply from new construction. The hotel pipeline stood at 6,211 projects with over 722,000 rooms as of Q3 2024, signaling sustained investment even amid margin pressures. Rental Cars: High Volume, Higher Risk The rental car sector stands out—but not in a good way. Despite being a key enabler of domestic travel, these businesses exhibit the highest commercial credit risk across the industry. According to Experian’s Commercial Risk Classification, 32% of rental car companies are considered Medium-High to High Risk, compared to less than 10% in categories like air transport and sightseeing. The elevated risk may be due to a combination of factors: fleet acquisition costs, multi-location exposure, and operational disruptions during the pandemic. While credit trades in this segment remain high, inquiries have declined over recent years, possibly reflecting tightening lending standards or constrained demand for new credit. Encouraging Risk Trends—With Exceptions Across the broader Leisure & Hospitality industry, there’s been a decline in commercial credit risk since 2020. The share of businesses classified as Medium-High or High Risk dropped from 11.7% to 8.5% as of April 2025. Most firms now fall into the Medium Risk category—a sign of normalization in the sector. Delinquency rates remain low (under 1%), and the average Intelliscore Plus v2 score has remained stable across most subsectors. Still, credit conditions vary sharply by business type, underlining the importance of nuanced risk assessment in portfolio management. Smarter Credit Allocation Starts with Subsector-Level Insight The summer travel surge is a powerful reminder of the sector’s resilience—but not all players are experiencing the boom equally. For credit professionals and commercial lenders, the latest data from Experian suggests a growing divide: infrastructure-heavy firms are leaning into credit, while high-risk subsectors like rental cars may warrant closer scrutiny. Whether your clients are in air transport or roadside accommodations, understanding these credit trends will be key to navigating the second half of 2025. ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
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