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Using consumer data to win big on Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025

Published: July 15, 2025 by Experian Marketing Services

Trends that will define Black Friday 2025

As marketers gear up for the 2025 holiday season, economic turbulence, tariffs, and shifting digital habits are changing how and where consumers shop. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still set to be the crown jewels of retail, but winning this year means leaning into data, omnichannel activation, and tools that help you do more with less as you start your Black Friday planning.

Let’s explore this year’s Black Friday trends in relation to last year’s and how to make the most of every opportunity in the 2025 holiday season.

Spending trends we saw in 2024

After years of economic uncertainty, Black Friday 2024 marked a return to retail “normalcy” with record-setting online and in-store shopping that reflected growing optimism and smarter behaviors:

  • Online Black Friday sales increased by 10.2% from 2023, largely due to better-timed deals and earlier shopping.
  • Mobile shopping made up 69% of global purchases.
  • In-store traffic rebounded, surpassing online during Cyber Week for the first time in years.
  • Buy now, pay later (BNPL) added $686 million to online sales — an 8.8% YoY increase — as consumers spread out their holiday spending.
  • Retailers using AI tools (like chatbots and shopping assistants) saw up to 15% more conversions.

Ultimately, last year’s Black Friday e-commerce trends showed that shoppers prioritized flexible payments, value, and easy, personalized buying experiences.

Key products and categories in 2024

After years of favoring lower-cost essentials, consumers returned to higher-ticket purchases during Cyber Week. The share of expensive goods sold online rose over 15% compared to pre-season figures, with AI-powered product recommendations leading consumers to top-selling products like:

  • AirPods Pro
  • Ninja Creami
  • Our Place Always Pan
  • Vitamix blenders
  • Oura Ring

The highest-performing gift categories included electronics, apparel, furniture and bedding, groceries, and cosmetics.

2024 Black Friday trends we expect to continue in 2025

As we reflect on a record-breaking 2024 holiday season, we predict many of the key Cyber Monday trends and Black Friday strategies for retailers in 2024 will carry over and intensify in 2025:

  • Mobile will remain the primary shopping channel.
  • The shift to early shopping will persist.
  • AI-driven efficiencies will play an increasing role.
  • Retailers that focus on the customer experience will capture the most wallet share.

As a marketer, you can use these insights to plan your Black Friday e-commerce strategy and meet audiences where and when they scroll and shop.

Projected growth YoY

While 2025 holiday retail shopping may not match the explosive growth of 2023 to 2024, consumers are still expected to show up in force for Black Friday in 2025. The National Retail Federation projects that overall U.S. holiday sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% compared to last year.

Experian’s 2025 Q1 consumer data paints a more nuanced picture:

  • Mass retail transactions remain above 2024 levels, but YoY growth is slowing, from +8% in January to +4% in May.
  • Department stores, which grew 10% YoY in January, have since declined to -3% by May.
  • Apparel saw a similar trajectory, slipping from +7% growth in Q1 to slightly negative growth leading up to the summer months.

This slowdown suggests early signs of consumer fatigue, especially in discretionary categories, as inflation and tariffs continue to erode the spending power of price-sensitive consumers and small brands that rely heavily on imports.

Emerging trends and behaviors to expect in 2025

With inflation still weighing on household budgets and new tariffs potentially reducing consumer spending power by up to $78 billion, brands and shoppers are entering the holiday season with uncertainty. Roughly 91% of consumers may adjust their buying habits in response to tariff-driven price increases and inflation.

Consumers are still motivated by value, but they’ll expect more for their money and may start deal-hunting even earlier this season. You’ll need to be agile with your messaging, inventory, and budget allocation, as shoppers will still spend when the experience is seamless, personalized, and smart.

Let’s explore the key trends shaping the 2025 holiday season and how you can build them into your omnichannel marketing plan before the rush hits.

Omnichannel campaigns

In 2025, holiday shoppers will be more intentional than impulsive, which means they may zigzag between channels —browsing products on TikTok, watching TV ads, researching on Google, and checking out in-store or online before purchasing. They’ll want consistent, personalized experiences no matter where they engage.

This means you can’t rely on a single sales touchpoint anymore and must deliver a seamless experience wherever your audience spends time. Forrester shows 21% of global B2C leaders are already prioritizing omnichannel, which makes it a competitive necessity.

Fortunately, these efforts pay off. Omnichannel shoppers spend 1.5x more per month than those who shop on a single channel.

How Experian helps

Experian simplifies omnichannel marketing. Our identity graph connects hashed emails, mobile ad IDs (MAIDs), connected TV (CTV) IDs, and more so you can define your audience once and reach them consistently across every major channel.

With unified data, identity, and activation, we help you cut through platform silos and deliver coordinated, cross-device campaigns that actually feel connected.

Mobile first

In 2024, over 70% of orders and $195 billion in sales happened on mobile devices, according to Salesforce. As more consumers browse holiday deals from the couch, car, or checkout line, mobile-first shopping is among the top Cyber Monday retail trends and the main channel for on-the-go purchases.

For marketers, this means your mobile experience can make or break your Black Friday results. Responsive design, fast load times, and smooth checkout flows are the new expectations. Brands that invest in sleek mobile sites, intuitive apps, and frictionless buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) options will better meet and convert customers where they are at key moments.

How Experian helps

With Experian, you can reach mobile-first shoppers precisely at scale. Our identity graph connects MAIDs to individuals, so you can activate campaigns across mobile apps, SMS, and social with confidence. Define your audience once and deliver consistently personalized offers wherever they scroll, search, or shop.

CTV

On Black Friday 2025, shoppers won’t just be scrolling — they’ll be streaming, too. CTV continues to surge as a key channel for holiday shoppers, with viewership far outpacing ad spend. In 2024, CTV drove 31% of digital audience activation revenue. With nearly half of U.S. viewers expected to tune into free ad-supported TV (FAST) in 2025, CTV is becoming a core part of the Black Friday media mix.

Still, many marketers underestimate the channel, assuming it’s strictly an upper-funnel awareness channel rather than a direct driver of conversions. In reality, CTV can influence high-intent holiday shoppers closer to purchase than many assume.

With more consumers engaging with FAST during the holidays, CTV offers scalable, measurable reach and can fuel conversions across the entire funnel. And when paired with identity resolution and cross-device targeting, it becomes a powerful full-funnel tool.

How Experian helps

Experian gives marketers the household-level insights and activation capabilities to reach the right shoppers at the right frequency across platforms — a must for a high-volume weekend like Black Friday. Our identity graph connects devices within a household to manage frequency, unify messaging, and eliminate waste.

Plus, with support for Universal IDs like Unified I.D. 2.0 (UID2), you can activate audiences across CTV environments — including FAST — using login-based, privacy-compliant signals for a campaign that connects, converts, and performs on the biggest shopping weekend of the year.

Signal loss

Although Google has reversed its plan to phase out third-party cookies, 40% of browser traffic no longer supports them. You now need various identifiers across devices and platforms to get a complete customer view, especially during Black Friday when reach and precision are key.

That’s why marketers are shifting to alternative IDs like UID2, ID5, and Hadron ID to maintain reach. In 2024, we saw a 50% increase in Experian clients using alternative IDs and a 30% jump in the number resolved to individuals in our Digital Graph. These IDs are unlocking up to 60% incremental reach in campaigns compared to cookies.

Preparing a multi-ID approach and incorporating privacy-first strategies, such as contextual targeting, can give you a competitive edge this holiday season.

How Experian helps

Experian’s identity solutions connect all your digital and offline identifiers into a single, privacy-forward customer profile. This lets you recognize and reach your audiences no matter what device or platform they’re using.

Plus, with Contextually-Indexed Audiences, you can activate high-performing segments instantly in major demand-side platforms (DSPs) without cookies to maintain and improve addressability during the holidays.

RMNs

Retail media networks (RMNs) are set to capture 20% of digital ad spend in 2025. In particular, off-site retail media is expected to surge 42.1% this year, driving more Black Friday campaigns into channels like CTV, programmatic, and social.

This shift reflects a growing demand for full-funnel strategies, broader reach, and cross-channel measurement. RMNs that extend their first-party data beyond owned platforms will be best positioned to deliver results during peak shopping periods like Cyber Week.

However, off-site success hinges on clean, connected data. Many RMNs still face fragmented views of their customers, making it harder to scale audiences and measure performance.

How Experian helps

Experian helps RMNs scale off-site by resolving fragmented identities, enriching first-party data, and enabling seamless activation across channels. Our identity graph connects key digital identifiers to unify customer profiles, while our audience insights add depth with demographic, behavioral, and purchase data.

Curation

Curation is quickly becoming a go-to Black Friday marketing strategy, helping advertisers connect with high-value audiences by blending inventory with audience and contextual data. In fact, by 2026, private marketplace ad spending is projected to grow by $31 billion.

Instead of choosing between wide-open auctions or direct publisher deals, curation offers a powerful middle ground through curated private marketplaces (PMPs) built on first-party publisher data, contextual signals, and alternative IDs.

How Experian helps

Now unified with Audigent, Experian is setting a new standard for curated media buying. Our Curated Deals combine Experian’s powerful identity and data capabilities with Audigent’s flexible activation and audience customization.

You can activate high-performing audiences across DSPs or directly through Audigent’s PMPs to maximize precision, privacy, and scale ahead of the biggest shopping week of the year.

AI-powered shopping experiences

AI is becoming a co-pilot for holiday shoppers and reshaping the customer journey. From researching gift ideas and comparing prices to relying on personalized product recommendations and AI chatbots for faster service, consumers are using AI to shop smarter.

Salesforce reports that AI influenced 19% of holiday purchases in 2024 — a 6% increase from the previous year. In an Experian survey, shoppers shared they’re also using AI to help with BOPIS logistics and even choosing which BNPL option to use at checkout. Influencer content powered by AI and social algorithms is also guiding purchases in real time.

This holiday season, brands that weave AI into their digital storefronts, payment options, and social strategies will drive conversion.

How Experian helps

Experian uses AI and machine learning to help marketers deliver faster, smarter Black Friday campaigns. Our Digital Graph improves targeting with advanced household connections, while machine learning models fill in data gaps and identify high-intent shoppers. We also offer AI-powered audience recommendations and real-time contextual signals, enabling you to quickly build and activate the right segments at scale.

How to prepare for Black Friday 2025

Now that we’ve covered Black Friday trends for this year, it’s time to talk about how you can build them into a data-powered marketing strategy. Here’s where we suggest you focus your Black Friday planning for Cyber Week 2025.

Understand and segment your audience

Winning Black Friday 2025 starts with knowing your audience and how they shop so you can reach them at optimal times with messaging that resonates. Whether you’re targeting early-bird deal hunters or last-minute gifters, audience precision is the foundation for success this holiday season — and Experian can help.

Purchase intent

Drive performance by identifying consumers actively in the market for holiday purchases. With Experian’s holiday shopping audiences (available across major DSPs and platforms like Audigent, The Trade Desk, and DirectTV), you can reach:

  • Last-Minute Shoppers
  • One-Stop Holiday Shoppers
  • Post-Holiday Shoppers
  • Heavy Gift Givers

These intent-rich segments can help you capture demand at every phase of the season.

Spending behavior

While some consumers may splurge this year, others are tightening their belts due to economic turbulence. Experian’s pre-built holiday audiences help you target accordingly, with segments like:

  • Holiday High Spenders and Moderate Spenders
  • Big Box/Club Stores
  • Discount Holiday Shoppers, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday Shoppers

These segments can help you optimize campaign spend based on wallet size.

Channel preferences

Knowing where your audience shops is just as important as how much they spend or what they buy. Experian offers audiences like:

  • eCommerce Diehards
  • Brick-and-Mortar Diehards
  • Impulse Buyers
  • BOPIS Shoppers

Tailor your media mix and creative strategy to align with their channel behavior, whether they’re browsing in-store, online, or on social.

Demographic, lifestyle, and behavioral data

Experian helps you tap into rich demographic and lifestyle data to better understand and engage high-value segments, whether that’s suburban deal hunters, Gen Z beauty buyers, or luxury holiday splurgers.

And by layering in Experian Marketing Attributes — 5,000+ attributes that include financial behaviors, interests, shopping patterns, car ownership, media consumption, and more — you can gain a clearer picture of age, gender, purchase behaviors, and content habits for refined holiday targeting.

With our data marketplace, audiences are more accessible and actionable than ever. We offer:

  • Diverse, high-fidelity partner audiences
    • Easily activate audiences from 31+ premium data providers, including:
      • Attain: Real-time, permissioned transaction data from 8 million U.S. consumers
      • Alliant: Predictive audiences built from billions of consumer transactions across key verticals
      • Circana: Loyalty-based CPG and general merchandise audiences
      • Dun & Bradstreet: Privacy-compliant B2B audiences based on firmographic and professional attributes
  • Flexible activation across top platforms
    • Our identity graph powers our data marketplace, enabling audiences to be easily activated and highly addressable across display, mobile, and CTV with 10+ activation platforms, including Madhive, Open AP, Optimum, and Yieldmo.
  • Privacy-first audience planning
    • All data in our marketplace meets strict privacy and compliance standards, helping brands scale campaigns confidently.
  • Custom and pre-built audience options
    • Mix and match from 2,400+ Experian Audiences and Partner Audiences to find the right shoppers and meet your campaign goals.

Our data marketplace delivers the people you want to reach, where you need to reach them, with the insights to optimize in real time.

Personalize promotions

One-size-fits-all promotions won’t cut it in 2025. Consumers expect relevance at every touchpoint and ignore what feels generic or off-base. With the abundance of Black Friday offers, shoppers are filtering fast and prioritizing brands that understand their needs, preferences, and timing.

Here’s how you can deliver on these demands:

  • Deliver targeted product recommendations: Whether through chatbots or personalized emails, consumers want help quickly finding what they need. Brands that invest in smart recommendation engines position themselves to drive cart additions and increase average order value (AOV).
  • Customize promo codes by segment: Everyone loves discounts, but not all shoppers should get the same one. Use customer segments like high-spenders, last-minute shoppers, or deal-hunters from Experian’s syndicated holiday audiences to offer custom promo codes, boost conversions, and avoid over-discounting with those who would buy regardless.
  • Optimize the timing of offers: Timing is everything during Cyber Week when inboxes and feeds are flooded. Use our behavioral and lifestyle data to determine when your segments are most active and likely to buy, and schedule your best offers for maximum impact.
  • Use Experian Activity Feed: Black Friday 2025 will span devices, stores, and channels. Activity Feed connects the dots between online ad exposures and offline sales, helping you measure the impact of your campaigns and identify what drives conversions.

Case study: How Cuebiq increased match rates with Activity Feed

Using Activity Feed, Cuebiq, resolved digital ad exposures to MAIDs so they could know the impact of their campaigns on in-store visits and purchases.

Within three weeks, they resolved 85% of ad events to households across web, mobile, and CTV, giving their clients a clearer view of what drove store traffic and sales.

“In just a few weeks, they were able to maximize the match rate across the fragmented digital inventory, solving a huge problem when it comes to cross-channel attribution.”

Luca Bocchiardi,Director of Product, Cuebiq

Experian can help you win big this holiday season

Marketers are entering this season with more pressure, more complexity, and more opportunity than ever before. Whether you’re grappling with signal loss, evolving your omnichannel mix, or launching your first curated PMP, Experian has the data, identity infrastructure, and activation tools to help you win. Download our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, in collaboration with GroundTruth, to access our predictions for this year’s holiday season.

Want help building your Black Friday marketing strategy? Let’s talk.

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In the ever-evolving and soon-to-be cookieless advertising world, brands and agencies need help finding and maintaining access to accurate and comprehensive marketing data that enables them to reach the audience segments that matter most. Flashtalking by Mediaocean and Experian have a collaboration in place to do just that. Through this partnership, Experian’s more than 2,400 syndicated audiences are available for activation within the Flashtalking platform and its Social Ads Manager. “There are a lot of audience segments and data disappearing within the advertising industry right now because of the deprecation of third-party cookies, but Experian’s syndicated audiences are built for this new privacy-first world. Through this partnership, Flashtalking's clients gain access to some of the industry's most actionable on-the-shelf and custom audience capabilities for activation and targeting across the publishers and social platforms that matter most. It’s as easy as identifying the segments that matter to your brand and activating them everywhere they exist with a few simple clicks.” – Ben Kartzman, COO, Flashtalking by Mediaocean This partnership unites the power of Flashtalking's best-in-class independent omnichannel advertising platform with Experian’s comprehensive audience intelligence, which spans 126 million households and 250 million consumers. “For the same reason that brands are investing more deeply in first-party data in the wake of third-party cookie deprecation, having access to the right audience segments has never been more important. Mediaocean offers access to the only independent ad server that’s powering truly omnichannel, personalized experiences, and we’re thrilled to be amplifying their ability to do that through Experian’s expansive audience segments.” – Colleen Dawe, Director, Sell-Side Sales, Experian The Flashtalking Social Ads Manager has long-standing relationships and technical integrations with all major platforms, including Facebook, Google Demand Gen, Instagram, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snap, TikTok, and a forthcoming integration with Reddit. Experian data can be deployed through custom and syndicated segments within these platforms, providing clients with both reach and precision. The power of the Experian – Flashtalking collaboration Benefits to marketing organizations that tap Experian data and audience segments via the Flashtalking platform include the following: A unified customer view: Marketers can use Experian's comprehensive data within Flashtalking to create a unified view of the customer across multiple channels. This helps craft cohesive marketing strategies that deliver consistent messages, enhancing customer experiences and brand perception. Enhanced targeting and personalization: Marketers can access Experian's detailed audience segmentation and insights within Flashtalking to target campaigns effectively. They can personalize messages at scale based on demographic, psychographic, and behavioral data to increase engagement and conversion rates across all channels. Optimized cross-channel strategies: With Flashtalking's cross-channel capabilities, marketers can integrate Experian's insights to understand how different segments interact with various channels. This enables the design of optimized cross-channel strategies that cater to the preferences and behaviors of different audiences. Data-driven decision-making: This partnership combines Experian's in-depth consumer insights with Flashtalking's analytics and reporting tools to help marketers make informed decisions. This data-driven approach can improve campaign performance, optimize media spend, and reveal untapped market opportunities. Local market activation: Marketers can also use Experian's geographic and location-based data within Flashtalking to tailor campaigns to local markets. This localized approach can enhance relevance and response rates, providing a competitive edge in regional marketing efforts. Improved media efficiency: This collaboration also enables organizations to harness the power of Experian's data within Flashtalking to improve media planning and buying. They can identify the most effective channels and timeframes for reaching specific audiences, leading to more efficient and cost-effective media investments. Why choose Experian in Flashtalking For over 50 years, we have been a trusted single-source provider of data management solutions. Our expertise in offline and digital identity has enabled us to curate data from over 200 direct and active sources, offering a comprehensive view of consumers with granularity, accuracy and scale. Using this data, we can craft our syndicated audiences to cover many verticals and specialty categories. For example, a Flashtalking client in the automotive industry can supercharge its campaign efforts. Experian has found that automotive advertisers build segmentation using four major data categories: Automotive Demographics Lifestyles and Interests Retail Shoppers: Purchase-Based Directly within the Flashtalking platform, multiple syndicated audiences from Experian in each major data category specific to automotive are available that brands and agencies can activate on-the-shelf to reach consumers with targeted messaging and retargeting. Experian and Flashtalking are future-proofing advertising Together, Flashtalking and Experian will ensure advertisers can continue to deliver personalized, relevant, and impactful messages and experiences to consumers despite ongoing shifts within the data-driven marketing landscape, including the deprecation of third-party cookies in Chrome. This partnership offers greater access to audience segments built on privacy-safe insights with expansive reach, scale, and flexibility. Connect with us to learn more about how you can access Experian’s syndicated audiences through Flashtalking by Mediaocean. Contact us today About Flashtalking by Mediaocean Flashtalking unleashes the power of creative to make media work better. As the leading independent platform for personalization and intelligence across all marketing channels, our Creative Ad Tech bridges the gap between creative and media. We provide AI and automation to connect the silos between teams and deliver more efficient production, versioning, and distribution of creative. Our solutions operate at scale across CTV, Video, Display, Social, Native, Audio, DOOH, and Retail Media channels. As part of Mediaocean, Flashtalking is tied into the industry’s core ad infrastructure for omnichannel planning, buying, and billing. Visit flashtalking.com to learn more. Latest posts

Mar 28,2024 by Experian Marketing Services

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At Experian Marketing Services, we use data and insights to help brands have more meaningful interactions with people. As leaders in the evolution of the advertising landscape, Experian Marketing Services can help you identify your customers and the right potential customers, uncover the most appropriate communication channels, develop messages that resonate, and measure the effectiveness of marketing activities and campaigns.

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