Loading...

2025 Holiday shopping trends: It’s complicated

Published: September 19, 2025 by Fred Cheung, Director, Partnership Sales

At A Glance

Holiday shopping in 2025 doesn’t follow one clear pattern, with shoppers blending early planning and last-minute purchases, digital discovery and in-store validation, and cautious spending. Marketers who embrace this complexity, by staying relevant, consistent, and connected across channels, will be best positioned to win this season.

Holiday shopping in 2025 feels a lot like a complicated relationship. Shoppers want deals, but they also want trust. They start shopping early, but they’re still browsing well into December. They love the convenience of online shopping, but they still show up in-store before making the final call.

Our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, created this year in collaboration with GroundTruth, explores these contradictions. Our findings show that this year’s holiday season isn’t about one big shift; it’s about managing the push and pull between what consumers say, what they do, and how marketers respond.

Here are three complicated truths you need to know.

Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report

Optimize your 2025 holiday shopping campaigns with our latest report with GroundTruth.

Download now

1. The new rules of holiday timing

Almost half (45%) of consumers plan to start shopping before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December. And post-holiday shopping (think gift card redemptions and deal-hunting) remains a real factor.

Consumer shopping vs marketing campaign timelines for the holiday season in 2025
Foot-traffic patterns: When and where shoppers show up. December 7, 2024 was the biggest in-store shopping day and November 18, 2024 was the lowest traffic day for the 2024 holiday season

Why it’s complicated

The holiday calendar isn’t what it used to be. There’s no single “big moment” anymore. Instead, shoppers are spreading purchases across months, peaking around the “Turkey 12” (the 12 days surrounding Thanksgiving) and again in the final December rush.

What to do about it

  • Stretch your campaigns across the full season, not just Cyber Week.
  • Refresh offers to stay relevant as shopper motivations change from deal-seeking to last-minute urgency.
  • Watch for post-holiday momentum and extend your promotions into January.

How belVita nailed the timing
In celebration of National Coffee Day, belVita partnered with GroundTruth on a one-month campaign to boost product awareness and drive foot traffic to Target stores. By utilizing digital out-of-home (DOOH) and mobile ads powered by location, behavioral, and purchase-based targeting, the campaign achieved a 3.44% visitation rate, nearly $476k in products added to carts, and a low cost-per-visit of just $0.22.

2. Online leads, but in-store still seals the deal

Nearly 40% of shoppers say they’ll split their purchases between online and in-store and 80% of consumers still prefer the in-store experience. Only a small fraction plan to shop exclusively in one channel. That means while digital often starts the journey, the final decision often happens in a physical store.

How consumers plan to shop: Online vs. in-store for the holiday season in 2025

Why it’s complicated

Shoppers love the convenience of browsing online, but they still want the reassurance of seeing, touching, or testing products before buying. In-store isn’t just about the transaction, it’s the validation step.

What to do about it

  • Build omnichannel strategies that connect digital discovery with in-store follow-through.
  • Use location and identity data to tie digital impressions to real-world actions, like foot traffic and purchases.
  • Focus on consistency: shoppers expect the same value, tone, and trust whether they’re on a website, in an app, or standing in a store aisle.

How Duke Cannon used on-premise targeting to drive sales lift
Duke Cannon, a premium men’s grooming brand, partnered with GroundTruth to launch a successful multichannel campaign utilizing location-based and behavioral audience targeting across CTV and mobile screens to drive in-store visits and sales.

By targeting consumers with mobile ads while they were physically in-store, the company capitalized on high purchase intent, aiding in the 12% sales lift. This strategic approach resulted in over 43.9k provable in-store visits and a significant increase in sales.

3. Marketers double down, consumers hold back

This holiday season, expectations are split. 66% of marketers expect holiday spend to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. While brands are leaning into bigger investments across CTV, retail media, and social, shoppers are staying cautious, weighing value and waiting for the right deal.

Change in investment by marketing channel for the 2025 holiday season

Why it’s complicated

That disconnect introduces risk. If marketers don’t align spend with real consumer behavior, budgets can get wasted in the rush to cover every channel. Shoppers haven’t stopped spending, but they’re spending differently. They’re trading down to discount and big-box retailers while cutting back in discretionary categories like apparel and restaurants.

What to do about it

  • Prioritize efficiency by focusing on the right audiences, not just more impressions.
  • Make consistency your advantage: reach people once and connect across platforms instead of chasing fragmented signals.
  • Balance aggressive media investment with messaging that acknowledges consumer caution — shoppers want value and trust, not hype.

Measuring TV and streaming impact with iSpot
iSpot’s Audience Builder, powered by Experian’s Marketing Attributes, helps brands reach high-value audiences. During the holiday season, a luxury retailer could target $100K+ households with affluent lifestyle interests. With iSpot’s Unified Measurement platform, they can track performance across linear TV and streaming and shift spend in real time to maximize results.

The bottom line on 2025 holiday shopping trends

This year’s holiday shopping season is, well…complicated. Shoppers are cautious but still engaged. They’re early planners and last-minute browsers. They want the ease of digital, but the confidence of in-person.

For marketers, the opportunity lies in embracing that complexity, not trying to simplify it away. The brands that balance relevance, trust, and convenience across the full season and across every channel will be the ones that win.

Download our full 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season and see how you can turn complexity into opportunity.


FAQs

Why is holiday shopping in 2025 described as “complicated”?

Because consumer behavior is full of contradictions. People will shop earlier but also later, browse online but purchase in-store, and want deals while demanding trust. Marketers need to navigate these push-and-pull dynamics.

When do most shoppers plan to start their holiday shopping?

Nearly half (45%) say they’ll start before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December, with momentum even continuing into January through gift card redemptions and deal-hunting.

What role do physical stores still play in holiday shopping?

Although many consumers begin online, the majority still make their final decisions in-store. In-person shopping acts as a validation step where customers can see, touch, or try products before buying.

How should marketers adapt their strategies to shifting holiday timing?

Instead of focusing only on Black Friday or Cyber Week, marketers should stretch campaigns across the full season, refresh offers frequently, and continue promotions into January.

Are marketers and consumers aligned on holiday spending expectations?

Not entirely. 66% of marketers expect spending to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. Shoppers are cautious, prioritizing value and often trading down to discount or big-box retailers.

What’s the best way to connect online discovery with in-store sales?

An omnichannel approach using identity and location data can bridge digital impressions with real-world actions like store visits and purchases, ensuring consistency across touchpoints.

What can brands learn from the case studies in the report?

Brands like belVita and Duke Cannon successfully tied digital campaigns to in-store results by utilizing precise audience targeting, location data, and well-timed promotions.

Where can I get the full insights report?

You can download Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season.


Latest posts

Loading…
Exploring data ownership and its role in advertising with Merkle

Centralized data access is emerging as a key strategy for advertisers. In our next Ask the Expert segment, we explore this topic further and discuss the importance of data ownership and the concept of audience as an asset. We're joined by industry leaders, Andy Fisher, Head of Merkury Advanced TV at Merkle, and Chris Feo, Experian’s SVP of Sales & Partnerships who spotlight Merkle's commitment to centralized data access and how advertisers can use our combined solutions to navigate industry shifts while ensuring consumer privacy. Watch our Q&A to learn more about these topics and gain insights on how to stay ahead of industry changes. The concept of audience as an asset In order to gain actionable marketing insights about your audience, you need to identify consumers who are actively engaged with your brand and compare them against non-engaged consumers, or consumers engaged with rival brands. Audience ownership Audience ownership is a fundamental marketing concept where marketers build, define, create, and own their audience. This approach allows you to use your audiences as an asset and deliver a customized journey to the most promising prospects across multiple channels. With this strategy, you enhance marketing effectiveness and ensure ownership over your audience, no matter the platform or channel used. Merkle enables marketers to own and deploy said asset (audience) so that marketers can have direct control over their audience. With audience strategy, you can tie all elements together – amplify your marketing reach, while maintaining control of your audience. Merkle connects customer experiences with business results. Data ownership Data ownership refers to the control organizations have over data they generate, including marketing, sales, product, and customer data. This data is often scattered across multiple platforms, making it difficult to evaluate their effectiveness. Alternatively, owning this data, which is typically housed in a data warehouse, allows the creation of historical overviews, forecasting of customer trends, and cross-channel comparisons. With advertisers and publishers both claiming ownership over their respective data and wanting to control its access, there has been a growing interest in data clean rooms. Data clean rooms The growing interest in data clean rooms is largely due to marketers increasing preference to maintain ownership over their audience data. They provide a secure environment for controlled collaboration between advertisers and publishers while preserving the privacy of valuable data. Data clean rooms allow all parties to define their usage terms – who can access it, how it is used, and when it is used. The rise in the use of data clean rooms strengthens data privacy and creates opportunities for deeper customer insights, which leads to enhanced customer targeting. Data clean rooms unlock new data sets, aiding brands, publishers, and data providers in adapting to rapidly changing privacy requirements. Why is centralized data access important? Centralized data access is crucial for the effective organization and optimization of your advertising campaigns. It involves consolidating your data in one place, allowing for the identification of inconsistencies. Merkle’s Merkury platform The concept of centralized data is a key component of Merkle’s Merkury platform, an enterprise identity platform that empowers brands to own and control first-party identity at an individual level. A common use case involves marketers combining their first-party data with Merkury's data assets and marketplace data assets to build prospecting audiences. These are later published to various endpoints for activation. The Merkury platform covers three classes of data: Proprietary data set – Permissioned data set covering the entire United States, compiled from about 40 different vendors Marketplace data – Includes contributions from various vendors like Experian First-party data from marketers – Allows marketers to bring in their own data Merkury's identity platform empowers brands to own and control first-party identity at an individual level, unifying known and unknown customer and prospect records, site and app visits, and consumer data to a single, person ID. This makes Merkury the only enterprise identity platform that combines the accuracy and sustainability of client first-party data, quality personally identifiable information (PII) data, third-party data, cookie-less media, and technology platform connections in the market. End-to-end management of data Data ownership and management enables you to enhance the quality of your data, facilitate the exchange of information, and ensure privacy compliance. The Merkury platform provides a comprehensive, end-to-end solution for managing first-party data, all rooted in identity. Unlike data management platforms (DMPs) that are primarily built on cookies, the Merkury platform is constructed on a person ID, allowing it to operate effectively in a cookie-free environment. A broader perspective with people-based views The Merkury platform is unique because it contains data from almost every individual in the United States, providing a broader perspective compared to customer data platforms (CDPs) which only contain consumer data. The platform provides a view of the world in a people-based manner, but also offers the flexibility to toggle between person and household views. This enables you to turn data into actionable insights and makes it possible to target specific individuals within a household or consider the household as a whole. How Experian and Merkle work together Experian and Merkle have established a strong partnership that magnifies the capabilities of Merkle's Merkury platform. With Experian’s robust integration capabilities and extensive connectivity opportunities, customers can use this technology for seamless direct integrations, resulting in more effective onboarding to various channels, like digital and TV. "Experian's role in Merkury's data marketplace is essential as they are considered the gold standard for data. It significantly contributes to our connectivity through direct integrations and partnerships. Experian's presence in various platforms and technologies ensures easy connections and high match rates. Our partnership is very important to us."andy fisher, head of merkury advanced tv Through this partnership, Merkle can deliver unique, personalized digital customer experiences across multiple platforms and devices, highlighting their commitment to data-driven performance marketing. Watch the full Q&A  Visit our Ask the Expert content hub to watch Andy and Chris's full conversation about data ownership, innovative strategies to empower you to overcome identity challenges, and navigating industry shifts while protecting consumer privacy. Tune into the full recording to gain insights into the captivating topics of artificial intelligence (AI), understanding how retail networks can amplify the value of media, and the growing influence of connected TV (CTV). Dive into the Q&A to gain rich insights that could greatly influence your strategies. Contact us today About our experts Andy Fisher, Head of Merkury Advanced TV As the Head of Merkury Advanced TV, Andy's primary responsibility is driving person-based marketing and big data adoption in all areas of Television including Linear, Addressable, Connected, Programmatic, and X-channel planning and Measurement. Andy has held several positions at Merkle including Chief Analytics Officer and he ran the Merkle data business. Prior to joining Merkle, Andy was the EVP, Global Data & Analytics Director at Starcom MediaVest Group where he led the SMG global analytics practice. In this role, he built and managed a team of 150 analytics professionals across 17 countries servicing many of the world’s largest advertisers. Prior to that role, Andy was Vice President and National Lead, Analytics at Razorfish, where he led the digital analytics practice and managed a team of modeling, survey, media data, and business intelligence experts. He and his team were responsible for some of the first innovations in multi-touchpoint attribution and joining online/offline data for many of the Fortune 100. Andy has also held leadership positions at Personify and IRI.  Andy holds a BA in mathematics from UC Berkeley and an MA in statistics from Stanford. Chris Feo, SVP, Sales & Partnerships, Experian As SVP of Sales & Partnerships, Chris has over a decade of experience across identity, data, and programmatic. Chris joined Experian during the Tapad acquisition in November 2020. He joined Tapad with less than 10 employees and has been part of the executive team through both the Telenor and Experian acquisitions. He’s an active advisor, board member, and investor within the AdTech ecosystem. Outside of work, he’s a die-hard golfer, frequent traveler, and husband to his wife, two dogs, and two goats! Latest posts

Sep 28,2023 by Experian Marketing Services

Experian’s identity resolution solution now available in AWS Clean Rooms

Bridging disparate data in a fragmented world  In today's world, consumers engage with brands across multiple platforms, including social media, online marketplaces, in-store experiences, and customer service touchpoints. However, the main challenge for marketers and advertisers is the fragmentation of customer data across these different channels. Each platform generates its own set of data, which is stored in different databases and formats. Integrating these various data sources to create a unified view of the customer is a complex task involving technology and understanding customer behavior across different digital and physical channels.  Businesses must link these data fragments to avoid creating a disconnected customer experience. For example, a person may browse products on a mobile app, ask questions through a customer service chat, and eventually purchase in an online marketplace. Traditional data analysis methods often need to recognize these activities as those of a single customer, which can result in missed opportunities to deliver personalized customer experiences across the customer journey.  Identity resolution: The key to a unified customer experience  Connecting online interactions across various platforms is a challenge for brands. Identity resolution enables enterprises to overcome this challenge by stitching together disparate signals and records to orchestrate experiences and analyze outcomes more effectively. By pairing Experian's identity capabilities with AWS Clean Rooms, enterprises can securely collaborate with their partners to derive deeper insights without exposing sensitive underlying data sets.  This partnership between AWS and Experian enables effective matching between disparate data sets, bolstering privacy-enhanced media planning, insights, data enrichment, media activation, and measurement use cases. Depending on their distinct needs and existing identifiers, customers can use two specific offerings of Experian's identity resolution solutions paired with AWS Clean Rooms.  Experian's identity resolution products ensure a frictionless brand experience across various channels, enhancing the customer journey from start to finish. Brands can employ our adaptable identity resolution solutions to forge connections between contextual, behavioral, lifestyle, and purchase-based data sources, assembling comprehensive customer profiles. Use dependable digital data to make informed decisions and elevate consumer engagement. Advanced deterministic and probabilistic features, combined with data science and cutting-edge technology, work hand in hand to mitigate risk and uphold data privacy.  Such recognition enables a more comprehensive understanding of your clientele, fostering trust and amplifying campaign effectiveness by utilizing securely managed, standardized customer data. With this strategic approach, businesses can achieve their objectives regulatory-compliant.  The consumer perspective: Why consistency matters  Data fragmentation can lead to inconsistent experiences for consumers, which can be frustrating and erode brand trust. For instance, imagine receiving a promotional email for a product you already purchased through an app or being targeted for a product you decided against.   Consumers are increasingly tech-savvy and demand a seamless, integrated experience regardless of how they interact with a brand. They want to feel valued and recognized at every touchpoint and don't care about the complexities of data analytics. As a result, brands face significant pressure to get identity resolution right.  Data security and privacy: A Fort Knox for your data  AWS Clean Rooms empowers their customers to establish a secure data clean room within minutes, facilitating collaboration with any other entity within AWS. This fosters the generation of unique insights regarding advertising campaigns, investment decisions, clinical research, and more. With AWS Clean Rooms, the need to store or maintain a separate copy of data outside the AWS environment for subsequent dispatch to another party for consumer insight analysis, marketing measurement, forecasting, or risk assessment becomes obsolete.  AWS Clean Rooms provides an expansive set of privacy-enhancing controls for clean rooms. This includes query controls, query output restrictions, and query logging that allows customers to tailor restrictions on the queries executed by each clean room participant. Moreover, AWS Clean Rooms include advanced cryptographic computing tools that maintain data encryption—even during query processing—to adhere to stringent data-handling policies. This process employs a client-side encryption tool—an SDK or command line interface (CLI)—that utilizes a shared secret key with other participants in an AWS Clean Rooms collaboration.  With a wealth of expertise in data privacy management, Experian enhances campaign effectiveness and fosters trust by managing standardized customer data securely. By using the identity graph, you can preserve a unique identity for each customer. This strategy enables you to comprehensively understand your clientele and reach your business objectives in a regulatory-compliant manner.  The future of data-driven marketing starts here  AWS customers can use AWS Clean Rooms to establish their own clean rooms in mere minutes, initiating the analysis of their collective data sets without sharing their underlying data with each other. Customers can use the AWS Management Console to choose their collaboration partners, select data sets, and configure participant restrictions. With AWS Clean Rooms, customers can effortlessly collaborate with hundreds of thousands of companies already using AWS without needing to move data out of AWS or upload it to a different platform. When running queries, AWS Clean Rooms accesses data in its original location and applies built-in, adaptable analysis rules to assist customers in maintaining control over their data.  Coupled with Experian's trusted data privacy management and unique Experian ID, businesses can effectively manage customer data, secure partners' communication, and achieve regulatory-compliance objectives. This combination allows companies to use data-backed insights to supercharge their marketing initiatives, resulting in more meaningful customer interactions, improved match rates, and business success. Start collaborating About the authors Kalyani Koppisetti, Principal Partner Solution Architect, AWS Kalyani Koppisetti is a technology leader with over 25 years of experience in the Financial Services Industry. In her current role at AWS, Kalyani advises financial services partners on best-practice cloud architecture. Kalyani works closely with internal and external stakeholders to identify industry technical trends, develop strategies, and execute them to help Financial Services Industry partners build innovative solutions and services on AWS. Technical and Solution interests include Cloud Computing, Software-as-a-Service, Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, Storage Virtualization and Data Protection. Matt Miller, Business Development Principal, AWS In his role as Business Development Principal at AWS, Matt drives customer and partner adoption for the AWS Clean Rooms service specializing in advertising and marketing industry use cases. Matt believes in the primacy of privacy-enhanced data collaboration and interoperability underpinning data-driven marketing imperatives from customer experience to addressable advertising. Prior to AWS, Matt led strategy and go-to-market efforts for ad technologies, large agencies, and consumer data products purpose-built to inform smarter marketing and deliver better customer experiences.  Tyler Middleton, Sr. Partner Marketing Manager, Experian Marketing Services Tyler Middleton is the Partner Marketing Lead at Experian. With almost 20 years of strategic marketing experience, Tyler’s focus is on creating marketing strategies that effectively promote the unique value propositions of each of our partners’ brands. Tyler helps our strategic partners communicate their mutual value proposition and find opportunities to stand out in the AdTech industry. Tyler is an alumnus of the Seattle University MBA program and enjoys finding new marketing pathways for our growing partner portfolio. Latest posts

Sep 19,2023 by Tyler Middleton

Three insights from our 2023 Holiday spending report

The holiday season is just around the corner, and retailers and marketers are gearing up for the busiest shopping period of the year. It's crucial to understand how consumer behavior is evolving and what emerging trends to expect. Experian's 2023 Holiday spending trends and insights report analyzes recent trends, consumer spending habits, and anticipates what's to come in 2023 to help you deliver a top-notch shopping experience this holiday season. In this blog post, we'll cover three key insights from our report. 1. Consumers are shopping earlier It's no secret that December has always been the go-to month for consumers when it comes to holiday spending. However, holiday shopping now starts earlier, particularly with online sales. This can be attributed to a surge in promotions and deals, enticing shoppers to open their wallets ahead of time, giving a significant boost to holiday sales. Notably, Cyber Week sales have proven to be an influential factor, accounting for 8% of total consumer holiday spending. Experian tip Reach the right shoppers with your promotions with sell-side targeting. This powerful approach gives you control over where your ads are placed while ensuring maximum visibility through direct connections with publishers. Whether on mobile, web, or CTV, this seamless ad experience will engage your audience effectively. 2. Online sales are on the rise The popularity of online holiday sales is continuously growing, surpassing in-store shopping. There has been a consistent 1% year-over-year increase in online sales, while in-store sales have seen a 1% decrease. "It’s easier for consumers to comparison shop for large ticket items online that they might find at a mass retailer or office supply store. Consumers prefer to have larger, bulkier items shipped directly to their home for minimal cost. By shopping online, consumers can save time since they don’t need to wait in checkout lines." Anna Liparoto, Sr. Account Executive, Retail & CPG Although online sales currently make up only one-third of all holiday shopping, there is immense potential for further expansion. Mass retailers and office, electronics, and games industries particularly excel in online holiday sales. While in-store purchases remain the primary choice for holiday shoppers, consumer online and offline activities intersect before the final purchase. Experian tip Take advantage of the surge in online shopping by diversifying your marketing channels. An agnostic identity graph can bring together device and media data, capturing valuable user insights. By gaining a holistic view of your target audience, you'll be able to optimize your ad spend and allocate resources effectively, ultimately boosting your return on investment. "Omnichannel targeting during the upcoming holiday season will continue to prove to be the best way to reach scale and maximize ROI across all marketing channels."Joe Ligé, Head of Enterprise Demand Partnerships 3. 2023 holiday spending will be on par with 2022 During the holiday season in 2022, consumer spending showed an anticipated increase, although the growth rate was slightly lower compared to previous years. October saw a surge in average consumer spending, indicating a swift response to early discounts and promotions offered by retailers. As the holiday season progressed, holiday spending gradually slowed down and reached a level similar to that of the previous year. Overall, there was a modest 2% growth. Looking into the future, if economic conditions remain stable in the second half of 2023, we can expect holiday spending to align with the figures from last year. Experian tip To truly maximize impact, consider data enrichment. By diving deeper into your target audience's preferences and behaviors, you can better tailor your strategies and seamlessly integrate the enriched data across various channels. This allows you to unlock the true potential of your ad inventory, creating more meaningful connections with your audience. Download our new 2025 report Get ready for the holiday shopping season with Experian's 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, in collaboration with GroundTruth. Inside you'll find: When shoppers plan to buy Why stores still drive results Where marketers are placing their bets How AI is shaping discovery To access to all of our predictions for this year's holiday shopping season, download our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report today. Download now Contact us today Latest posts

Sep 14,2023 by Hayley Schneider, Content Marketing Manager

Subscribe to our newsletter

Enter your name and email for the latest updates

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

About Experian Marketing Services

At Experian Marketing Services, we use data and insights to help brands have more meaningful interactions with people. As leaders in the evolution of the advertising landscape, Experian Marketing Services can help you identify your customers and the right potential customers, uncover the most appropriate communication channels, develop messages that resonate, and measure the effectiveness of marketing activities and campaigns.

Visit our website

Subscribe to our newsletter

Stay up to date on the latest industry news and receive expert tips from our marketing experts.
Subscribe now!