At A Glance
Holiday shopping in 2025 doesn’t follow one clear pattern, with shoppers blending early planning and last-minute purchases, digital discovery and in-store validation, and cautious spending. Marketers who embrace this complexity, by staying relevant, consistent, and connected across channels, will be best positioned to win this season.Holiday shopping in 2025 feels a lot like a complicated relationship. Shoppers want deals, but they also want trust. They start shopping early, but they’re still browsing well into December. They love the convenience of online shopping, but they still show up in-store before making the final call.
Our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, created this year in collaboration with GroundTruth, explores these contradictions. Our findings show that this year’s holiday season isn’t about one big shift; it’s about managing the push and pull between what consumers say, what they do, and how marketers respond.
Here are three complicated truths you need to know.
Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report
Optimize your 2025 holiday shopping campaigns with our latest report with GroundTruth.
Download now1. The new rules of holiday timing
Almost half (45%) of consumers plan to start shopping before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December. And post-holiday shopping (think gift card redemptions and deal-hunting) remains a real factor.
Why it’s complicated
The holiday calendar isn’t what it used to be. There’s no single “big moment” anymore. Instead, shoppers are spreading purchases across months, peaking around the “Turkey 12” (the 12 days surrounding Thanksgiving) and again in the final December rush.
What to do about it
- Stretch your campaigns across the full season, not just Cyber Week.
- Refresh offers to stay relevant as shopper motivations change from deal-seeking to last-minute urgency.
- Watch for post-holiday momentum and extend your promotions into January.
How belVita nailed the timing
In celebration of National Coffee Day, belVita partnered with GroundTruth on a one-month campaign to boost product awareness and drive foot traffic to Target stores. By utilizing digital out-of-home (DOOH) and mobile ads powered by location, behavioral, and purchase-based targeting, the campaign achieved a 3.44% visitation rate, nearly $476k in products added to carts, and a low cost-per-visit of just $0.22.
2. Online leads, but in-store still seals the deal
Nearly 40% of shoppers say they’ll split their purchases between online and in-store and 80% of consumers still prefer the in-store experience. Only a small fraction plan to shop exclusively in one channel. That means while digital often starts the journey, the final decision often happens in a physical store.
Why it’s complicated
Shoppers love the convenience of browsing online, but they still want the reassurance of seeing, touching, or testing products before buying. In-store isn’t just about the transaction, it’s the validation step.
What to do about it
- Build omnichannel strategies that connect digital discovery with in-store follow-through.
- Use location and identity data to tie digital impressions to real-world actions, like foot traffic and purchases.
- Focus on consistency: shoppers expect the same value, tone, and trust whether they’re on a website, in an app, or standing in a store aisle.
How Duke Cannon used on-premise targeting to drive sales lift
Duke Cannon, a premium men’s grooming brand, partnered with GroundTruth to launch a successful multichannel campaign utilizing location-based and behavioral audience targeting across CTV and mobile screens to drive in-store visits and sales.
By targeting consumers with mobile ads while they were physically in-store, the company capitalized on high purchase intent, aiding in the 12% sales lift. This strategic approach resulted in over 43.9k provable in-store visits and a significant increase in sales.
3. Marketers double down, consumers hold back
This holiday season, expectations are split. 66% of marketers expect holiday spend to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. While brands are leaning into bigger investments across CTV, retail media, and social, shoppers are staying cautious, weighing value and waiting for the right deal.
Why it’s complicated
That disconnect introduces risk. If marketers don’t align spend with real consumer behavior, budgets can get wasted in the rush to cover every channel. Shoppers haven’t stopped spending, but they’re spending differently. They’re trading down to discount and big-box retailers while cutting back in discretionary categories like apparel and restaurants.
What to do about it
- Prioritize efficiency by focusing on the right audiences, not just more impressions.
- Make consistency your advantage: reach people once and connect across platforms instead of chasing fragmented signals.
- Balance aggressive media investment with messaging that acknowledges consumer caution — shoppers want value and trust, not hype.
Measuring TV and streaming impact with iSpot
iSpot’s Audience Builder, powered by Experian’s Marketing Attributes, helps brands reach high-value audiences. During the holiday season, a luxury retailer could target $100K+ households with affluent lifestyle interests. With iSpot’s Unified Measurement platform, they can track performance across linear TV and streaming and shift spend in real time to maximize results.
The bottom line on 2025 holiday shopping trends
This year’s holiday shopping season is, well…complicated. Shoppers are cautious but still engaged. They’re early planners and last-minute browsers. They want the ease of digital, but the confidence of in-person.
For marketers, the opportunity lies in embracing that complexity, not trying to simplify it away. The brands that balance relevance, trust, and convenience across the full season and across every channel will be the ones that win.
Download our full 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season and see how you can turn complexity into opportunity.
About the author
Fred Cheung
Director, Partnership Sales, Audigent, a part of Experian
Fred Cheung has spent over a decade in the programmatic advertising space, with roles at Mindshare, Jounce Media, Twitter, and The Trade Desk. His deep experience in trading and product management helps in his current function on the Experian Marketing Services’ Sales team where he focuses on data growth and adoption across the industries’ leading buy-side platforms.
2025 holiday shopping trends FAQs
Because consumer behavior is full of contradictions. People will shop earlier but also later, browse online but purchase in-store, and want deals while demanding trust. Marketers need to navigate these push-and-pull dynamics.
Nearly half (45%) say they’ll start before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December, with momentum even continuing into January through gift card redemptions and deal-hunting.
Although many consumers begin online, the majority still make their final decisions in-store. In-person shopping acts as a validation step where customers can see, touch, or try products before buying.
Instead of focusing only on Black Friday or Cyber Week, marketers should stretch campaigns across the full season, refresh offers frequently, and continue promotions into January.
Not entirely. 66% of marketers expect spending to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. Shoppers are cautious, prioritizing value and often trading down to discount or big-box retailers.
An omnichannel approach using identity and location data can bridge digital impressions with real-world actions like store visits and purchases, ensuring consistency across touchpoints.
Brands like belVita and Duke Cannon successfully tied digital campaigns to in-store results by utilizing precise audience targeting, location data, and well-timed promotions.
You can download Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season.
Latest posts
In our Ask the Expert series, we interview leaders from our partner organizations who are helping lead their brands to new heights in AdTech. Today’s interview is with Samantha Zhang, Senior Data Scientist, and Jim Meyer, General Manager of the DASH TV Universe Study at the Advertising Research Foundation (ARF). DASH is an annual tracking study conducted by the ARF to define and better understand TV audience behavior and household dynamics. What does DASH measure, and how does it help the industry understand TV consumption today? By capturing hundreds of individual- and household-level data points from each respondent in a rigorous and nationally projectable sample, DASH creates a comprehensive picture of U.S. consumer TV “infrastructure” – how America watches. Core elements in DASHElements that create context in DASHTV setsLocation | brand | smartness | service modes | sources DemographicsConnected devices Game consoles |video players | streaming devicesYesterday viewing Daypart | TV/device genre | Out-of-home viewingMobile devicesOwners | sharing usersShoppingOnline and in-store | Exposure to major RMNsInternet serviceModes | ISPs | connectivity by device Streaming audio Streaming TVSVOD/AVOD tiers and sharing | FAST Email accounts and apps Live TV Modes of access | including casting from devices Social media For example, DASH gathers: Data on every TV set, including brand, room location, age, “smartness,” and connection devices and modes Household connectivity and video service data, even in homes with no TV set Internet Service Providers (ISP) and TV service usage, including Multichannel Video Programming Distributors (MVPDs), virtual vMVPDs, streamers (ad-supported and premium), and Free Ad-Supported Television (FAST) channels Person-level ownership and usage of video-capable mobile devices, including smartphones, tablets, and laptops Measures of viewing and co-viewing across dayparts, devices, and services Additional modules covering shopping and retail media networks, streaming audio, social media, email, and apps Broad coverage and granularity make DASH a uniquely robust source of truth for practitioners across the industry, including measurement experts and ad programming strategists. DASH also reports regularly (and publicly) on key industry dynamics. DASH identified a growing segment of device-only viewers – now nearly 9 million households that watch TV, but do not own a TV set – and highlighted the implications of that trend for traditional ratings systems based only on households with TV sets. Households (HHs – million)2025 HHs (M) U.S. penetrationChange vs. 2024 (M)Total US134.8100%+2.7Connected TV (CTV)114.685%+2.1TV (Set)124.292.2%+1.1Device-only8.86.6%+1.6TV-Accessible133.198.7%+2.7 DASH called out the rise in app-based pay TV and proposed a new connection framework that better represents the modern TV world, in which linear and streaming overlap. DASH also defines the universes of households reachable with advertising. This graphic, for example, shows how all ad-supported linear and streaming properties in aggregate define the true scale of TV advertising. While 35 million households (and growing) are reachable only with streaming ads and 13 million (and falling) only with linear ads, most households are reachable with both, underscoring the importance of understanding the “overlap.” Who uses DASH data, and what decisions does it help inform? There are three primary users of DASH, each with its own use cases: Measurement providers, including Nielsen, use DASH to calibrate viewership data, turn household data into persons data (and vice versa) and estimate potential reached audiences–what the providers call media-related universe estimate (MRUEs)–for the calculation of ratings. Not surprisingly, measurement companies were the first to see the value that an independent TV universe study could provide. Media companies, including major broadcasters and streamers, use DASH to add context and color to their ad sales presentations – and to track the measurement providers, whose ratings play a major role in valuing ad inventory. AdTech companies, including Experian, use DASH to create high-value audience segments for activation. The recent accreditation of DASH by the Media Rating Council (MRC) and adoption by Nielsen as an input to its TV ratings have generated interest from a broad range of companies. We are actively pursuing new licensees and partners to make DASH more useful within, and even outside, the TV ecosystem. What does MRC accreditation signify, and why is it meaningful for DASH? MRC accreditation means DASH passed a rigorous audit conducted by Ernst & Young over many months, which validated our methodology, controls, and data quality. MRC accreditation establishes that DASH is an industry-standard dataset. While the service provider normally announces its own accreditation, the MRC took the unusual step of issuing its own release on DASH, announcing the accreditation of DASH for TV universe estimation and endorsing the study for broader, cross-media use. How does Experian use DASH data to build audiences? The segments combine specific TV usage habits and behaviors from DASH with Experian data on demographics, spending, and other contextual inputs to create a fuller view of consumer viewing behavior. They are designed to be valuable to advertisers in many categories and planning contexts – and to be customizable to fit advertisers’ media targets. The segments can be used to: Apply or suppress audiences to improve target coverage across a campaign Better align media and creative Reach elusive but high-value viewers, such as Ad Avoiders Drive valuable consumer behavior Achieve specific advertising objectives What are some practical use cases for DASH-based audiences? Here are some practical use cases for four different kinds of DASH segments in five different advertiser categories. Travel Co-WatchersA couples-only resort uses TV Co-Watching Households without Children to strengthen target reach and ad memory recallA big theme park destination uses TV Co-Watching Households with Children to reach families in moments of togetherness Home Entertainment TV Owners and Brand LoyalistsA premium TV manufacturer uses the overlap of Multi Brand TV Owners and Single Brand TV Loyalist Households to market its newest TV model to its most loyal consumers. Fast Food Screen Size ViewersA fast food chain with a high-impact new brand campaign uses Large Screen TV Viewers to better align the media and creativeThat same fast food chain uses Small-Screen TV Viewers to drive store traffic by increasing exposure of its retail campaign among on-the-go viewers Financial Services Cord Cutters A personal cost management app and a cash-back credit card target Streaming-First Cord Cutter Households to reach young, tech-savvy, cost-conscious consumers Thanks for the interview. Where can readers learn more about DASH? We started work on DASH seven years ago, and it’s been fun to watch it “grow up.” Our partnership with Experian is a big step toward putting DASH to work for advertisers and agencies. To learn more, visit our site at https://theARF.org/DASH or contact us at DASH@theARF.org. Contact us About our experts Samantha Zhang, Senior Data Scientist at ARF Samantha Zhang is a Senior Data Scientist at the Advertising Research Foundation working on the DASH TV Universe Study, with additional research spanning areas including attention measurement, digital privacy, and artificial intelligence. Jim Meyer, General Manager, DASH, at ARF Jim Meyer is general manager and co-founder of the ARF DASH TV Universe Study and managing partner of Golden Square, LLC, which advises media and research technology companies on growth strategy and development. Latest posts
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