At A Glance
Holiday shopping in 2025 doesn’t follow one clear pattern, with shoppers blending early planning and last-minute purchases, digital discovery and in-store validation, and cautious spending. Marketers who embrace this complexity, by staying relevant, consistent, and connected across channels, will be best positioned to win this season.Holiday shopping in 2025 feels a lot like a complicated relationship. Shoppers want deals, but they also want trust. They start shopping early, but they’re still browsing well into December. They love the convenience of online shopping, but they still show up in-store before making the final call.
Our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, created this year in collaboration with GroundTruth, explores these contradictions. Our findings show that this year’s holiday season isn’t about one big shift; it’s about managing the push and pull between what consumers say, what they do, and how marketers respond.
Here are three complicated truths you need to know.
Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report
Optimize your 2025 holiday shopping campaigns with our latest report with GroundTruth.
Download now1. The new rules of holiday timing
Almost half (45%) of consumers plan to start shopping before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December. And post-holiday shopping (think gift card redemptions and deal-hunting) remains a real factor.
Why it’s complicated
The holiday calendar isn’t what it used to be. There’s no single “big moment” anymore. Instead, shoppers are spreading purchases across months, peaking around the “Turkey 12” (the 12 days surrounding Thanksgiving) and again in the final December rush.
What to do about it
- Stretch your campaigns across the full season, not just Cyber Week.
- Refresh offers to stay relevant as shopper motivations change from deal-seeking to last-minute urgency.
- Watch for post-holiday momentum and extend your promotions into January.
How belVita nailed the timing
In celebration of National Coffee Day, belVita partnered with GroundTruth on a one-month campaign to boost product awareness and drive foot traffic to Target stores. By utilizing digital out-of-home (DOOH) and mobile ads powered by location, behavioral, and purchase-based targeting, the campaign achieved a 3.44% visitation rate, nearly $476k in products added to carts, and a low cost-per-visit of just $0.22.
2. Online leads, but in-store still seals the deal
Nearly 40% of shoppers say they’ll split their purchases between online and in-store and 80% of consumers still prefer the in-store experience. Only a small fraction plan to shop exclusively in one channel. That means while digital often starts the journey, the final decision often happens in a physical store.
Why it’s complicated
Shoppers love the convenience of browsing online, but they still want the reassurance of seeing, touching, or testing products before buying. In-store isn’t just about the transaction, it’s the validation step.
What to do about it
- Build omnichannel strategies that connect digital discovery with in-store follow-through.
- Use location and identity data to tie digital impressions to real-world actions, like foot traffic and purchases.
- Focus on consistency: shoppers expect the same value, tone, and trust whether they’re on a website, in an app, or standing in a store aisle.
How Duke Cannon used on-premise targeting to drive sales lift
Duke Cannon, a premium men’s grooming brand, partnered with GroundTruth to launch a successful multichannel campaign utilizing location-based and behavioral audience targeting across CTV and mobile screens to drive in-store visits and sales.
By targeting consumers with mobile ads while they were physically in-store, the company capitalized on high purchase intent, aiding in the 12% sales lift. This strategic approach resulted in over 43.9k provable in-store visits and a significant increase in sales.
3. Marketers double down, consumers hold back
This holiday season, expectations are split. 66% of marketers expect holiday spend to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. While brands are leaning into bigger investments across CTV, retail media, and social, shoppers are staying cautious, weighing value and waiting for the right deal.
Why it’s complicated
That disconnect introduces risk. If marketers don’t align spend with real consumer behavior, budgets can get wasted in the rush to cover every channel. Shoppers haven’t stopped spending, but they’re spending differently. They’re trading down to discount and big-box retailers while cutting back in discretionary categories like apparel and restaurants.
What to do about it
- Prioritize efficiency by focusing on the right audiences, not just more impressions.
- Make consistency your advantage: reach people once and connect across platforms instead of chasing fragmented signals.
- Balance aggressive media investment with messaging that acknowledges consumer caution — shoppers want value and trust, not hype.
Measuring TV and streaming impact with iSpot
iSpot’s Audience Builder, powered by Experian’s Marketing Attributes, helps brands reach high-value audiences. During the holiday season, a luxury retailer could target $100K+ households with affluent lifestyle interests. With iSpot’s Unified Measurement platform, they can track performance across linear TV and streaming and shift spend in real time to maximize results.
The bottom line on 2025 holiday shopping trends
This year’s holiday shopping season is, well…complicated. Shoppers are cautious but still engaged. They’re early planners and last-minute browsers. They want the ease of digital, but the confidence of in-person.
For marketers, the opportunity lies in embracing that complexity, not trying to simplify it away. The brands that balance relevance, trust, and convenience across the full season and across every channel will be the ones that win.
Download our full 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season and see how you can turn complexity into opportunity.
About the author
Fred Cheung
Director, Partnership Sales, Audigent, a part of Experian
Fred Cheung has spent over a decade in the programmatic advertising space, with roles at Mindshare, Jounce Media, Twitter, and The Trade Desk. His deep experience in trading and product management helps in his current function on the Experian Marketing Services’ Sales team where he focuses on data growth and adoption across the industries’ leading buy-side platforms.
2025 holiday shopping trends FAQs
Because consumer behavior is full of contradictions. People will shop earlier but also later, browse online but purchase in-store, and want deals while demanding trust. Marketers need to navigate these push-and-pull dynamics.
Nearly half (45%) say they’ll start before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December, with momentum even continuing into January through gift card redemptions and deal-hunting.
Although many consumers begin online, the majority still make their final decisions in-store. In-person shopping acts as a validation step where customers can see, touch, or try products before buying.
Instead of focusing only on Black Friday or Cyber Week, marketers should stretch campaigns across the full season, refresh offers frequently, and continue promotions into January.
Not entirely. 66% of marketers expect spending to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. Shoppers are cautious, prioritizing value and often trading down to discount or big-box retailers.
An omnichannel approach using identity and location data can bridge digital impressions with real-world actions like store visits and purchases, ensuring consistency across touchpoints.
Brands like belVita and Duke Cannon successfully tied digital campaigns to in-store results by utilizing precise audience targeting, location data, and well-timed promotions.
You can download Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season.
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In our Ask the Expert Series, we interview leaders from our partner organizations who are helping lead their brands to new heights in adtech. Today’s interview is with Georgia Campbell, Head of Strategic Partnerships at Kontext. What types of audiences does Kontext provide, and what are some top use cases for these insights in marketing strategies? Kontext leverages its 1st-party, deterministic shopping data to generate real-time online audiences. What sets Kontext apart is our ability to see the entire consumer journey, from shopping interest to intent and purchases, at a SKU-level. This comprehensive visibility allows us to create purchase-based audiences across various consumer verticals, such as frequent online shoppers, consumers shopping for beauty, segments using Mastercard, or Black Friday enthusiasts. Our data engine, built on a foundation of approximately 100 million consumer profiles and over 10 billion full-funnel, real-time shopping events, enables the creation of precise audience segments. This real-time 1st-party shopper data is invaluable for partners aiming to understand and engage with consumers more effectively. Whether a brand wants to activate past shoppers in a specific category or reach new audiences with a propensity to buy, Kontext provides the insights needed to make informed decisions. Some examples of audience types include these (and hundreds more): In-Market Shoppers: Consumers showing high intent to purchase specific categories, like skincare or electronics, based on recent online behavior. Past Purchasers: Shoppers who have made verified purchases within specific time frames, such as beauty products in the last 18 months. Frequent Shoppers: High-frequency buyers identified through repeated purchasing behaviors. Seasonal Shoppers: Consumers active during key shopping seasons, like Black Friday, Mother’s Day, Valentine's Day, etc Premium Buyers: Shoppers who used a premium CC (eg. Amex) and a higher AOV (average order value) Beauty Buyers: an audience that has indicated intent to purchase beauty products (deterministic past purchasers also avail) By using Kontext data, brands can identify the right audiences across multiple verticals, such as retail, CPG, health & wellness, auto, business, energy & utility, financial, and travel. Additionally, our collaboration with Experian allows further refinement of these audiences through layered data from specialty categories like demographics, lifestyle & interests, mobile location, and TV viewing habits. How is Kontext’s data sourced, and what differentiates it from other data providers? Kontext’s data is unique because it is deterministic, 1st-party, and collected as transactions occur. We capture the entire path-to-purchase, down to the SKU-level product detail, across 100 million consumer profiles and more than 10 billion real-time shopping events. Our proprietary technology, embedded in widgets across our 5 million premium online destinations, tracks the full consumer journey—from reading an article of interest to clicking on our dynamic commerce modules, adding items to cart, and completing purchases. This real-time data collection ensures there is no lag between digital events and their connection to consumer profiles. Unlike other providers, we do not aggregate data from multiple platforms; instead, we focus on building our models and insights based on authentic online consumer behavior. Our data stands out due to its: Deterministic Nature: We capture 1st-party data as transactions occur (all in real time) Full-Funnel Coverage: We capture consumer journeys from awareness to purchase, providing a complete view of consumer behavior. Real-Time Insights: Our data engine processes events in real-time, enabling timely and relevant marketing actions. How does Kontext ensure the accuracy and reliability of its audience data? Kontext ensures accuracy and reliability through our unique technology and direct data sourcing. By not aggregating data from other platforms, we maintain control over the quality and integrity of our insights. Our continuous investment in refining our models around online consumer behavior further enhances the precision of our audience data. What types of brands or verticals might resonate the most with Kontext audiences for activation? Any brand looking to understand and activate online shopping behavior – informed by 1st-party transaction data – will resonate with Kontext audiences. Essentially, any vertical that benefits from understanding real-time shopping behaviors, such as retail, health & wellness, auto, and financial services, will find our data invaluable. We have particularly strong insights in beauty, hair care, health & wellness, and values-based online shopping habits, as well as the food & beverage space. Retail & Consumer Goods: Leveraging shopping behavior data for targeted campaigns. Health & Wellness: Identifying consumers with specific health and wellness interests. Automotive: Targeting potential buyers of electric vehicles or eco-friendly products. Financial Services: Engaging high-value shoppers with premium credit card usage. And many more How does Kontext’s data help advertisers navigate the challenges posed by the deprecation of third-party cookies? As third-party cookies become less reliable, Kontext’s 1st-party data becomes invaluable. Our deterministic data engine, which does not rely on cookies, offers: Direct Consumer Insights: Accurate and consented data directly from consumer interactions. Privacy Compliance: Our data collection methods are fully compliant with privacy regulations, ensuring secure usage. Cross-Device Coverage: We use verified digital identifiers, allowing seamless unification and targeting across multiple devices. What measures does Kontext take to maintain data privacy and compliance, and how does this benefit advertisers? Data privacy and compliance are fundamental to Kontext. We meet or exceed all privacy compliance and security standards, ensuring that our data sourcing and usage are transparent and comply with regulations (CCPA, CPRA, VCDPA, etc). Kontext prioritizes data privacy and compliance through: Consented Data Collection: All data is collected with explicit consumer consent. Robust Security Protocols: Data is encrypted and secured with industry-leading practices. Compliance with Regulations: We adhere to global privacy laws, including GDPR and CCPA. User Control: Consumers have the ability to opt-out and manage their data preferences. Can you share success stories / use-cases where advertisers significantly improved their campaigns using Kontext’s data? To give you a sense of how Kontext data can be applied, here are two use-cases: Beauty Brand Campaign: An agency hoping to activate an audience of beauty purchasers for a Major Beauty Brand could utilize Kontext's custom audience of high-value beauty product purchasers. By targeting those consumers who had bought similar products in the last 12 months and had an average cart size of over $50, the campaign would significantly increase performance and ROAS. Electric Vehicle Launch: For a major auto manufacturer’s EV launch, Kontext could be used to identify eco-friendly consumers who had not yet purchased an EV but had shown interest in sustainable products. This precise targeting could lead to higher engagement and conversion rates for the campaign. Thanks for the interview. Any recommendations for our readers if they want to learn more? For those interested in learning more about Kontext, reach out for a personalized consultation. Contact us About our expert Georgia Campbell, Head of Strategic Partnerships, Kontext In her current role as Head of Strategic Partnerships at Kontext, Georgia plays a pivotal role in shaping the company's strategic direction within the data space. With a deep-seated expertise in leveraging data to drive impact for companies, Georgia has been forging key partnerships that enhance the effectiveness and reach of Kontext's offerings. Georgia comes from a background in emerging technology, where she has been focused on cultivating partnerships and employing data-driven approaches to spearhead market expansion efforts. She started her career in finance, managing investments across equity, debt, and alternative assets at Brown Advisory. In this Q&A, Georgia shares her insights on Kontext's Onboarding partnership with Experian, offering perspective on how Kontext's unique insights can unlock new opportunities for advertisers and brands alike. Latest posts
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