Loading...

2025 Holiday shopping trends: It’s complicated

Published: September 19, 2025 by Fred Cheung, Director, Partnership Sales

At A Glance

Holiday shopping in 2025 doesn’t follow one clear pattern, with shoppers blending early planning and last-minute purchases, digital discovery and in-store validation, and cautious spending. Marketers who embrace this complexity, by staying relevant, consistent, and connected across channels, will be best positioned to win this season.

Holiday shopping in 2025 feels a lot like a complicated relationship. Shoppers want deals, but they also want trust. They start shopping early, but they’re still browsing well into December. They love the convenience of online shopping, but they still show up in-store before making the final call.

Our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, created this year in collaboration with GroundTruth, explores these contradictions. Our findings show that this year’s holiday season isn’t about one big shift; it’s about managing the push and pull between what consumers say, what they do, and how marketers respond.

Here are three complicated truths you need to know.

Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report

Optimize your 2025 holiday shopping campaigns with our latest report with GroundTruth.

Download now

1. The new rules of holiday timing

Almost half (45%) of consumers plan to start shopping before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December. And post-holiday shopping (think gift card redemptions and deal-hunting) remains a real factor.

Consumer shopping vs marketing campaign timelines for the holiday season in 2025
Foot-traffic patterns: When and where shoppers show up. December 7, 2024 was the biggest in-store shopping day and November 18, 2024 was the lowest traffic day for the 2024 holiday season

Why it’s complicated

The holiday calendar isn’t what it used to be. There’s no single “big moment” anymore. Instead, shoppers are spreading purchases across months, peaking around the “Turkey 12” (the 12 days surrounding Thanksgiving) and again in the final December rush.

What to do about it

  • Stretch your campaigns across the full season, not just Cyber Week.
  • Refresh offers to stay relevant as shopper motivations change from deal-seeking to last-minute urgency.
  • Watch for post-holiday momentum and extend your promotions into January.

How belVita nailed the timing
In celebration of National Coffee Day, belVita partnered with GroundTruth on a one-month campaign to boost product awareness and drive foot traffic to Target stores. By utilizing digital out-of-home (DOOH) and mobile ads powered by location, behavioral, and purchase-based targeting, the campaign achieved a 3.44% visitation rate, nearly $476k in products added to carts, and a low cost-per-visit of just $0.22.

2. Online leads, but in-store still seals the deal

Nearly 40% of shoppers say they’ll split their purchases between online and in-store and 80% of consumers still prefer the in-store experience. Only a small fraction plan to shop exclusively in one channel. That means while digital often starts the journey, the final decision often happens in a physical store.

How consumers plan to shop: Online vs. in-store for the holiday season in 2025

Why it’s complicated

Shoppers love the convenience of browsing online, but they still want the reassurance of seeing, touching, or testing products before buying. In-store isn’t just about the transaction, it’s the validation step.

What to do about it

  • Build omnichannel strategies that connect digital discovery with in-store follow-through.
  • Use location and identity data to tie digital impressions to real-world actions, like foot traffic and purchases.
  • Focus on consistency: shoppers expect the same value, tone, and trust whether they’re on a website, in an app, or standing in a store aisle.

How Duke Cannon used on-premise targeting to drive sales lift
Duke Cannon, a premium men’s grooming brand, partnered with GroundTruth to launch a successful multichannel campaign utilizing location-based and behavioral audience targeting across CTV and mobile screens to drive in-store visits and sales.

By targeting consumers with mobile ads while they were physically in-store, the company capitalized on high purchase intent, aiding in the 12% sales lift. This strategic approach resulted in over 43.9k provable in-store visits and a significant increase in sales.

3. Marketers double down, consumers hold back

This holiday season, expectations are split. 66% of marketers expect holiday spend to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. While brands are leaning into bigger investments across CTV, retail media, and social, shoppers are staying cautious, weighing value and waiting for the right deal.

Change in investment by marketing channel for the 2025 holiday season

Why it’s complicated

That disconnect introduces risk. If marketers don’t align spend with real consumer behavior, budgets can get wasted in the rush to cover every channel. Shoppers haven’t stopped spending, but they’re spending differently. They’re trading down to discount and big-box retailers while cutting back in discretionary categories like apparel and restaurants.

What to do about it

  • Prioritize efficiency by focusing on the right audiences, not just more impressions.
  • Make consistency your advantage: reach people once and connect across platforms instead of chasing fragmented signals.
  • Balance aggressive media investment with messaging that acknowledges consumer caution — shoppers want value and trust, not hype.

Measuring TV and streaming impact with iSpot
iSpot’s Audience Builder, powered by Experian’s Marketing Attributes, helps brands reach high-value audiences. During the holiday season, a luxury retailer could target $100K+ households with affluent lifestyle interests. With iSpot’s Unified Measurement platform, they can track performance across linear TV and streaming and shift spend in real time to maximize results.

The bottom line on 2025 holiday shopping trends

This year’s holiday shopping season is, well…complicated. Shoppers are cautious but still engaged. They’re early planners and last-minute browsers. They want the ease of digital, but the confidence of in-person.

For marketers, the opportunity lies in embracing that complexity, not trying to simplify it away. The brands that balance relevance, trust, and convenience across the full season and across every channel will be the ones that win.

Download our full 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season and see how you can turn complexity into opportunity.


FAQs

Why is holiday shopping in 2025 described as “complicated”?

Because consumer behavior is full of contradictions. People will shop earlier but also later, browse online but purchase in-store, and want deals while demanding trust. Marketers need to navigate these push-and-pull dynamics.

When do most shoppers plan to start their holiday shopping?

Nearly half (45%) say they’ll start before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December, with momentum even continuing into January through gift card redemptions and deal-hunting.

What role do physical stores still play in holiday shopping?

Although many consumers begin online, the majority still make their final decisions in-store. In-person shopping acts as a validation step where customers can see, touch, or try products before buying.

How should marketers adapt their strategies to shifting holiday timing?

Instead of focusing only on Black Friday or Cyber Week, marketers should stretch campaigns across the full season, refresh offers frequently, and continue promotions into January.

Are marketers and consumers aligned on holiday spending expectations?

Not entirely. 66% of marketers expect spending to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. Shoppers are cautious, prioritizing value and often trading down to discount or big-box retailers.

What’s the best way to connect online discovery with in-store sales?

An omnichannel approach using identity and location data can bridge digital impressions with real-world actions like store visits and purchases, ensuring consistency across touchpoints.

What can brands learn from the case studies in the report?

Brands like belVita and Duke Cannon successfully tied digital campaigns to in-store results by utilizing precise audience targeting, location data, and well-timed promotions.

Where can I get the full insights report?

You can download Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season.


Latest posts

Loading…
Rewriting the retail playbook: Shoptalk 2025 and the future of customer-centric commerce

At this year’s Shoptalk, one thing was crystal clear: Retailers are no longer just competing on price or product—they’re competing on experience. And in that race, customer expectations are not just the starting line—they’re the finish line, too. Over three days of discussions, demos, and side conversations, Shoptalk 2025 delivered a fresh look at how brands and advertisers are adapting to an increasingly blended retail environment. The show spotlighted not just what's new in retail media and AdTech—but how the industry is rethinking the entire shopper journey. What we heard again and again on the ground was this: there is no one-size-fits-all playbook anymore. Every retailer is navigating their own unique mix of identity, data, tech, and consumer needs. The winners will be those who stay nimble while staying connected to what customers actually want. Experience is everything Across sessions and show floor chats, the core message was this: customers expect more—and retailers must rise to meet that moment. Whether it’s a personalized in-store interaction or a seamless connected TV (CTV) ad experience, people want value, inspiration, and storytelling wherever they shop. That means digital and physical channels must work together effortlessly. Retailers aren’t just “digitizing” the in-store experience anymore—they’re rethinking how to make the entire shopping journey feel easy, consistent, and enjoyable. This shift isn’t just about touchpoints. It’s about changing the way retailers think about the customer experience. Loyalty isn’t a program, it’s every interaction Loyalty emerged as a major theme—one that goes well beyond points and perks. Speakers from Wayfair, DSW, and Lowe’s emphasized that every customer interaction, not just formal programs, should be viewed as an opportunity to build emotional loyalty. Sarah Crockett, CMO of DSW, shared that emotional tactics resonate more deeply than transactional rewards—echoing a broader shift toward customer-centric, experience-driven engagement. “Loyalty today isn’t just about perks. It’s about trust, connection, and knowing your customer on a deeper level. Every interaction is a chance to build that relationship.”Sam Zahedi, Sr. Enterprise Partnerships Manager Retail media gets real Retail media networks (RMNs) took center stage, but the tone is changing. With so many players flooding the space, retailers and advertisers alike are asking tougher questions: How do you stand out? How do you prove value? And perhaps most critically—how do you build trust? Standardization came up in several sessions, but as Harvey Ma from Sam’s Club MAP pointed out, standardization alone won’t fix what's been lost: foundational trust and transparency. Advertisers want more than impressions—they want insights, outcomes, and measurement they can count on. “There’s no one playbook—nor should there be. Every retailer, every RMN, and every customer is different. Success comes from building strategies as unique as the audiences they serve.”Anne Passon, Sr. Director, Sales, Retail Many brands came to our team asking how Experian can help extend their audiences into new environments like social and CTV. Here’s how we do it: We work with our RMN partners to take their organized, clean, complete, and highly usable customer records and expand them to include other digital identifiers. By adding digital IDs such as hashed emails (HEMs), mobile ad IDs (MAIDs), CTV IDs, and Universal IDs like Unified I.D. 2.0 (UID2) or ID5, we ensure that the retailer's entire customer base can be reached. On their own, RMNs only know the digital identity of a portion of their customer base. With Experian's help, they can add digital IDs to their entire customer base. As a result, marketers can reach all of an RMN's customers, including those whose identities were previously unknown. They can reach these customers both onsite and offsite, thanks to the array of addressable IDs we provide. This increase in addressability leads to higher revenue for the RMN. Moving at the speed of people One of the most thought-provoking moments came from Nikki Laughlin from McClatchy Media during a Brand Innovators session. She asked a simple but powerful question: How can we move at the speed of people if we’re always looking backward at data? It’s a challenge we’re hearing more often—marketers want to be proactive, not just reactive. That requires faster insights, cleaner connections between signals, and a shift from static audiences to living, evolving ones. Experian's identity and data solutions aren’t just about better targeting—they’re about helping brands activate smarter, faster, and with more confidence across the full media ecosystem. A marketplace of possibilities The best part of Shoptalk? The spontaneous moments. The side conversations where ideas turned into opportunities. We had several discussions that signaled new partnerships on the horizon—some with current clients, others brand new. What united them was a desire to co-create: to build something more tailored, more agile, more customer-first. Of course, there were also shared challenges. Retailers are navigating how to stay customer-centric while grappling with complex, sometimes controversial tech—from AI to influencers to evolving data privacy norms. But if there was one consistent thread, it was this: retailers are hungry for clarity and collaboration. Forget the playbook, follow the customer Shoptalk 2025 reminded us that while tech and trends come and go, the most successful retail strategies still start with one thing: knowing your customer. That’s what fuels smarter activation, stronger measurement, and more meaningful experiences—whether online, in-store, or across emerging media channels. If you're rethinking your retail strategy or want to explore how Experian can support your goals across identity, retail media, or CTV, let’s talk. Let's connect and explore what's possible Latest posts

Apr 02,2025 by Anne Passon, Sr. Sales Director, Retail, Sam Zahedi, Sr. Enterprise Partnerships Manager

Quality matters: Calculating the real impact of data accuracy

Originally appeared in MarketingProfs We all understand the importance of data quality. Metrics like third-party validations, match rates, and accuracy scores help us assess data quality on its own terms. Yet too often, organizations struggle to connect high-quality data with real-world business outcomes. How does data accuracy directly impact the ability to reach target audiences and campaign performance? Scale and cost: The tradeoffs of accuracy Marketers are frequently incentivized to prioritize broad reach, even at the expense of precision. This often leads to decisions driven by short-term gains—reaching more people at a lower cost. The temptation is deceptively straightforward, but deep down we know overly simplistic approaches are likely to fall short. Cheaper data solutions, even if they seem to provide greater reach, mask a deeper issue. The data may not be accurate. In fact, the initial savings from cheaper data typically result in higher long-term costs due to inefficiencies and waste that are hard to track. Unless you’re carefully evaluating your campaign results, it can be difficult to see where the inefficiencies are creeping in. The hidden cost of inaccurate data Programmatic platforms make it easy for mistargeted impressions to slip through unnoticed. Common issues include: Stale data, where consumer behaviors and locations have changed but the data hasn’t. Inactive signals, where you think a digital identifier like a device ID is addressable, but the device hasn’t been used in months. Disparate or duplicative data, where you think you’re reaching three people but in fact it’s just one person who you’re frequency bombing. Nobody likes getting the same ad over and over again. It’s like if your co-worker messaged you “hey” five times in a row. Direct mail waste is tangible: towering stacks of returned mail serve as undeniable reminders of inefficiency, not to mention the financial costs of wasted postage. Digital campaigns, by contrast, often obscure their inefficiencies within complex programmatic platforms or impression reports. It’s like watching a gust of wind scatter piles of paper into the ether—it's hard to track and quantify. As a result of these data inaccuracies, brands mistakenly assume they’re optimizing their budgets when, in fact, they’re hemorrhaging money and reaching the wrong people with a message they don’t care about. It’s a marketer’s nightmare scenario. The perceived savings from cheaper, less accurate data turn out to be an illusion. The compounding effect of inaccurate data Consider a situation where an inaccurate insight or signal prompts a brand to adjust its targeting toward an underperforming segment. Each new campaign uses this flawed data to guide its optimizations, amplifying the waste. What starts as a minor inefficiency quickly becomes a significant budget drain, funneling resources into segments that aren’t delivering. If you bake a cake but use salt instead of sugar–each new ingredient only makes the final product more unpalatable. With ad targeting, the feedback loop created by optimization tools exacerbates this issue. Decisions are made based on misleading metrics, perpetuating flawed strategies and causing brands to over-invest in underperforming tactics. Without scrutiny, brands risk building entire strategies on fundamentally flawed insights. The value of investing in the highest quality data With accurate data, brands can zero in on the right audience. This is particularly critical in lookalike modeling. By enriching customer files, brands can understand the nuances of who their best customers are—and how to find more of them. Tailored messaging, based on a consumer’s actual behaviors and interests, deepens engagement. Conversion rates rise as campaigns meet customer needs. Accurate data also provides insights that aren’t immediately obvious. Sometimes, seemingly minor behaviors or unexpected demographic segments can emerge as key drivers of conversions. It’s like finding the one avocado at the grocery store that’s perfectly ripe…you’re well on your way to delicious guacamole. To truly grasp the impact of data accuracy, traditional validation metrics such as third-party assessments (e.g. Truthset) should be paired with other performance indicators that show you how well data reflects actual consumer behavior. With this complete picture in view, the choice is obvious: quality data is worth the premium.  Acting on what the data tells you Collecting accurate data is just the first step—the real challenge is having the ability to act on what it reveals. Many brands enter campaigns with preconceived notions about their target audience, only to find the data tells a different story. Ignoring these insights stifles growth. The value of data-driven marketing lies in trusting the insights and adapting strategies accordingly.  How to test if your current approach is working We understand that changing data providers can feel daunting, but there are low-lift ways to explore whether your current approach is truly delivering. Test the waters by selecting an Experian Audience on a major platform or building a custom audience to see how your campaigns perform. Alternatively, collaborate with Experian’s insights team to gain a deeper understanding of your audience and determine if it aligns with your current strategy. It’s a small step that could lead to a big impact. Get in touch with our team today Latest posts

Apr 01,2025 by Jeremy Meade, VP, Marketing Data Product & Operations

A deep dive with an Experian partner, Open X

In our Ask the Expert Series, we interview leaders from our partner organizations who are helping lead their brands to new heights in AdTech. Today’s interview is with Brian Chisholm, SVP of Strategic Partnerships at OpenX.   About OpenX OpenX is an independent omni-channel supply-side platform (SSP) and a global leader in supply-side curation, transparency, and sustainability. Through its 100% cloud-based tech stack, OpenX powers advertising across CTV, app, mobile web, and desktop, enabling publishers to deliver marketers with improved performance and dynamic future-proofed solutions. With a 17-year track record of programmatic innovation, OpenX is a direct and trusted partner of the world’s largest publishers, working with more than 130,000 premium publisher domains and over 100,000 advertisers. As the market leader in sustainability, OpenX was the first AdTech company to be certified as CarbonNeutral™ and third-party verified for achieving its SBTi Net-Zero targets. Learn more at www.openx.com.  Collaboration solves programmatic challenges Could you share the story behind the partnership between OpenX and Experian and how this collaboration differs from typical data-provider/DSP or SSP relationships in the market? What unique challenges in programmatic advertising does this partnership solve?   OpenX first partnered with Experian in 2019 when we were building the industry’s first data-driven supply-side curation platform. Being the only SSP with a proprietary people-based identity graph (further enriched by Experian) gives OpenX a unique set of capabilities that are only growing in value in the market. We are seeing retail media networks, large agency planning platforms, and indie and specialty shops lean into OpenX’s tools to match, activate, and measure people-based audiences through our robust curation platform and premium supply.   Enhancing campaigns with data enrichment How does combining Experian's marketing data with OpenX's technology create tangible benefits for advertisers, agencies, and publishers?    Last year, we expanded our partnership with Experian to enrich our digital IDs with Experian’s Digital Audiences, essentially making Experian data available directly to marketers across all OpenX supply and formats, including CTV. For marketers, this direct integration increases both match and activation rates. Meaning, not only do we match more of the starting audience universe to our system, we then provide more opportunities to identify and transact on those users in the bidstream. The result is greater reach for buyers even in previously unaddressable environments like Safari or mobile web – and publishers benefit from the increased addressability OpenX provides their supply.   Delivering impactful inventory solutions OpenX has been enhancing its curation offerings beyond just providing curated marketplaces. Could you describe the strategic shift you’re making in how you package and deliver inventory?    At OpenX, we have a broader and more dynamic view of curation. It’s not just about gathering data or bundling inventory; it’s about layering on identity-based precision, enabling the targeting of the right audiences with premium, brand-safe inventory for our clients.  We saw the value of curating inventory and audiences on the supply side early on.  We started by building capabilities for our own exchange and then found that our approach created tremendous value for data owners and marketers alike. Over the past five years, we’ve been continuously investing our curation platform capabilities to super serve those partners. As a result, we have what we think is by far the most robust and flexible platform in the market.  We can match and integrate with any kind of data, curate supply at a granular level, activate audiences and help measure outcomes in multiple ways. We also provide turnkey integrations to third-party platforms.  Balancing customization with scalability in deals There's often tension between customization and scalability when it comes to curated deals. How does OpenX strike the right balance to meet varied advertiser objectives while ensuring operational efficiency for publishers?   Truthfully, we’re not finding that scale suffers with curation. We currently have 237 million monthly active users in our exchange that we can match and activate curated deals against. That’s a unique claim for an SSP, and we back it up with our identity graph. This directly benefits our publishers who see a 20% increase in overall bid density and a 118%+ increase in win rate for curated deals vs. open market.    Data-driven curation done on the supply side offers efficiency and drives results for buyers, while publishers are able to activate their own first-party data programmatically, increase their monetization, and maximize the value of their inventory.  As the industry continues to adapt to a privacy-first, consent-based ecosystem, data-driven curation will play a key part in ensuring both sides of the marketplace continue to thrive.   Driving results with CTV curation Connected TV is arguably the most dynamic channel in programmatic right now. How do curation improvements accelerate more precise or outcome-based targeting in CTV environments?    I want to take this a step further and say that biddable is the future of CTV. Not only does biddable enable advertisers to purchase closer to campaign activation, it gives buyers the option to curate deals, flexibility, addressability and ease of transacting at will. No minimums, no commitments.    Our CTV strategy has been centered around combining flexibility, efficiency, and real-time optimization capabilities with access to premium, direct, glass-on-wall inventory. TV by OpenX, powers the direct activation of curated audiences at scale through data-driven, contextual, attention, and sustainability offerings.    What does this mean for buyers?  Advertisers can choose from any one of OpenX’s 250+ data partners, including Experian, to target an audience via CTV inventory using OpenX’s cross-platform identity graph. This setup allows buyers to increase scale and optimize toward their desired campaign outcomes via their preferred DSP. The focus on inventory quality and scale combined with advanced targeting curation provides a key driver of performance in CTV.  Identity resolution for better CTV measurement In a channel as fragmented as CTV, measuring performance can be complex. What role does identity resolution play in better measurement and attribution? How do Experian's identity capabilities integrate within your platform to drive measurable outcomes?   We talked about the value of audience targeting via curation above. Another critical driver is our ability to power true closed-loop measurement for advertisers or partners like retail media networks. OpenX is able to provide automated log-level reporting via BIDS, which includes exposed IDs from our proprietary ID graph back to our partners in near real time.    This closed-loop attribution enables partners to measure real-world outcomes like ROAS, conversion rates and incrementality. Insights and learnings from data can then be used to make optimizations mid-campaign, to further improve performance. Measurement starts with having a strong foundation to identity resolution – which Experian helps us achieve.   Tailoring audience strategies in the auto sector The automotive vertical demands highly specific audience insights—everything from in-market signals to lifestyle and aftermarket service and parts data. How does the Experian–OpenX partnership enhance audience strategies in auto?   Experian’s deterministic data, combined with the OpenX identity graph, empowers buyers with identity tools to create targeted audience segments of likely auto intenders. For verticals that have high customer acquisition costs like auto, these insights are particularly valuable, as buyers often struggle to identify their audiences at scale in environments that drive campaign performance.   Experian’s automotive data is one of our most requested audiences from buyers. We match Experian’s high-quality data directly to our platform, often leveraging Experian’s IDs, which leads to greater scale and fidelity. In addition, our platform can curate supply to a granular level to drive results for buyers.  Complying with evolving privacy regulations With data privacy regulations multiplying—like GDPR, CCPA, and others—how does OpenX’s direct connection with Experian ensure responsible data usage and compliance?    At OpenX, we don’t see privacy regulations as a challenge but rather an opportunity. Instead, it’s a key differentiator for us. We’ve had a strong focus on data and identity since 2017, and we believe that if you’re talking about these topics but not talking about privacy, you’re missing an important piece of the equation.   Regardless of the environment — CTV, mobile, app, or web — in today’s privacy-focused world, success in data and identity is inseparable from a commitment to privacy. We support this obligation with dedicated leadership that helps our partners navigate evolving global regulations, including critical areas like child-directed content under new laws from Australia to Maryland.  Thanks for the interview. Any recommendations for our readers if they want to learn more? To learn more about our solutions and partnership opportunities, visit the OpenX website or contact your Experian account representative to schedule your free match test.  Contact us About our expert Brian Chisholm, Senior Vice President of Strategic Partnerships, OpenX  Brian Chisholm is the Senior Vice President of Strategic Partnerships at OpenX, where he spearheads the curation, data, and identity efforts. He and his team have been instrumental in building out OpenX’s industry-leading curation platform and partnerships.   With more than two decades of experience in digital media, Brian has developed partnerships that leverage and expand OpenX’s core technology assets and deliver material value for the company’s buyer, publisher, and platform partners. Before joining OpenX, Brian held senior roles at innovative startups and digital stalwarts, including Overture/Yahoo, SpotRunner, and Apptera.  Latest posts

Mar 24,2025 by Experian Marketing Services

Subscribe to our newsletter

Enter your name and email for the latest updates

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

About Experian Marketing Services

At Experian Marketing Services, we use data and insights to help brands have more meaningful interactions with people. As leaders in the evolution of the advertising landscape, Experian Marketing Services can help you identify your customers and the right potential customers, uncover the most appropriate communication channels, develop messages that resonate, and measure the effectiveness of marketing activities and campaigns.

Visit our website

Subscribe to our newsletter

Stay up to date on the latest industry news and receive expert tips from our marketing experts.
Subscribe now!