Small Business Credit Insights

Mark your calendars! Experian and Oxford Economics will present key findings in the latest Main Street Report for Q2 2022 during the Quarterly Business Credit Review for Q2 2022. Kathy Bostjancic, Oxford's U.S. Chief Economist will share her take on Experian's most recent small business credit data and a macroeconomic outlook for the coming quarter. Brodie Oldham, Experian's V.P. of Commercial Data Science, will cover commercial credit trends. Q2 2022 Main Street Report The Q2 2022 Experian/Oxford Economics Main Street report is expected to release on August 23rd. If you are not already subscribed to thought leadership updates, be sure to sign up for updates on our Commercial Insights Hub. Mark Your Calendar Quarterly Business Credit Review Webinar Date: Wednesday, September 7th, 2022 Time: 10:00 a.m. (Pacific), 1:00 p.m. (Eastern) Why you should attend: Leading Experts on Commercial and Macro-Economic Trends Credit insights and trends on 30+ Million active businesses Ask our panel questions in real-time Industry Hot Topics Covered (Inclusive of Business Owner and Small Business Data) Commercial Insights you cannot get anywhere else Peer Insights with Interactive Polls (Participate) Discover and understand small business trends to make informed decisions Actionable takeaways based on recent credit performance Register To Attend

Experian has released the Summer 2022 Beyond the Trends report, our deep dive on the small business economy based on our commercial small business insights.

Experian and Oxford Economics have just released the Q1 2022 Main Street report, a window into the credit performance of small businesses complete with macroeconomic analysis. Highlights: The US economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic-driven recession ended, but the domestic economy showed resilience in the face of Omicron, lingering supply constraints, and high inflation. Delinquency rates rose across the term periods; the 90+ days past due (DPD) climbed to 0.9 percent. Looking ahead, intensifying headwinds from more aggressive Fed tightening and tighter financial conditions will slow activity this year without stalling it. Download Q1 2022 Report Watch the Quarterly Business Credit Review Webinar Hear the experts from Experian and the lead economist from Oxford Economics unpack the latest Main Street Report. Watch the Quarterly Business Credit Review

Interest rate hike, flat unemployment rate, strong job growth are just a few of the trends we are following in the Commercial Pulse Report.

Join Experian and Oxford Economics for the Quarterly Business Credit Review webinar, your window into small business credit health.

Women-owned small businesses make up roughly 34 percent of new business starts. They are among the businesses most heavily impacted by the pandemic, and minority-owned women-led small businesses were the fastest-growing segment coming out of COVID. Despite solid growth, Women business owners face significant barriers to success. We studied a large dataset of women-owned small businesses to understand their unique needs and challenges. The result is a fascinating look at a powerful small business segment. In this talk you will learn: · Credit behaviors · Top industry sectors · Areas of opportunity for lenders Watch Recording

We've all been experiencing higher prices for food, housing, and certainly at the gasoline pump. If these economic headwinds have  raised concerns about how small businesses are being impacted, we have some fresh perspectives in the Spring 2022 Beyond the Trends report. Beyond The Trends offers a unique view of the small business economy based on what we see in the data. With up to date information on over 25 million active businesses and how they perform from a credit standpoint. Here’s my quick take on what’s in our latest Beyond The Trends Report The next 12 months will be filled with headwinds and mines for small businesses. These entities have been shoring up resources, operations, building in cost increases, and creating backup supplier networks as supply chain disruption and inflation will batter the ship through 2023. Highlights: Consumers seek higher paying jobs, creating labor shortages in blue collar industries, as wage gains are being eaten away by increasing U.S. inflation. Transportation and the utility industries have seen a 69% increase in delinquent balances tied closely to the increase in U.S. inflation. A 4X increase in delinquent balances associated with mining as the US took steps to move away from fossil fuel. Commercial card lending grew 9.9% in the 4th quarter, even as delinquency rates began their upward climb. Energy Takes Center Stage Energy costs are hitting margins and impacting delivery of goods and services. US energy costs  were up 27% in January according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. These costs have been rising sharply since March 2021 and will be exacerbated in the 1st quarter 2022 by global reaction to the Russian incursion in Ukraine. Energy supply chains will be disrupted by sanctions and higher transport costs. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Inflation Looms Consumers and small businesses will feel the pinch of lower supply and higher costs. Inflation, outside this event and on the rise, will remain above the Federal Reserve target of 2% through the end of 2022, even as the Fed raises rates and begins to reduce their balance sheet. The US supply chain will be in a slow recovery mode as infrastructure stimulus and global markets return to capacity. Small businesses are adjusting to a high demand low supply market through 2023. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Download Spring Beyond The Trends Report

Experian Business Information Services has just released the Q4 2021 Main Street Report. In addition to the Omicron surge, which significantly impacted labor and consumer engagement, an inflationary surge, the most significant increase since 1982, coupled with supply-and-demand imbalances, weighed heavily on US small businesses, making a notable impact on consumer sentiment. While workers were getting raises in a tight job market, rapid price increases eroded consumers’ earning power. Average wage earnings went up by 4.0% in Q4 ’21 vs. the previous year, yet a 7.5% increase in inflation results in a net decline in real earnings. Workers’ money is not going as far as it used to. Download the latest report to get the full detail on Q4 2021 small business credit performance. Download Q4 2021 Report Join us for the Q4 Quarterly Business Credit Review We will be going in-depth on the Q4 business credit trends in our upcoming Quarterly Business Credit Review. We look forward to sharing the latest small business trends with you. Register for Webinar

This perception of the marketplace has been a concern of consumers and small business owners, in the US, as they manage through the pandemic hampered marketplace. Small businesses are adjusting to a high demand/ low supply market that is expected to continue through 2022. The ability to move raw materials to manufacturers, products across borders, find space in warehouses, and put products on the shelf has become challenging as pandemic variants add pressure to a slowly recovering supply infrastructure. Large market participants will find disproportionate advantage, over small business competitors, widens as distributors focus on their largest clients and small clients feel cost and availability squeeze. Consumers store front engagement will increase, with a tangible delivery advantage, as distrust grows in a digital only storefronts ability to deliver on time. Here's my quick take on what's in our latest Beyond The Trends Report The Experian Winter 2021 Beyond the Trend report looks at consumer willingness and ability to spend behavior tied to the bets commercial supply chain industry participants are making, to ensure demand is met, emerging from the heart of the pandemic: Originations for new businesses, with less than a year in business and already participating in the commercial credit market, are up 157% from pre-pandemic levels. 36% of active U.S. businesses have been operating less than 1 year, as the spike in new business applications continue to be elevated. Commercial lending up 95% from same time last year to supply chain participants (Manufacturing, wholesale, retail, transportation, and warehouse) Although delinquency rates are historically low rates for wholesalers (Up 600%) and retailers (Up 101%) have been on the rise a components and inventories are slow to arrive. To operate at full capacity, small businesses will need consumers willing to spend. The fed will begin to taper and raise rates much earlier than expected, March 2022, to add downward pressure to inflation. Small businesses are betting on growth as investors view variants as a bump in the road vs a blocker. New business applications continued to roll at ~400k a month in 2021. This untapped market expansion will drive traditional lenders to reassess the risk of engaging emerging businesses in their first year of operation with limited historical commercial performance. !function(e,i,n,s){var t="InfogramEmbeds",d=e.getElementsByTagName("script")[0];if(window[t]&&window[t].initialized)window[t].process&&window[t].process();else if(!e.getElementById(n)){var o=e.createElement("script");o.async=1,o.id=n,o.src="https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js",d.parentNode.insertBefore(o,d)}}(document,0,"infogram-async"); Supply chain bottlenecks will slowly dissipate. We expect to see variability in product availability as goods are delivered which will create scenarios of over-supply of some products while others remain tied up in transit. Lenders and creditors should monitor commercial health of businesses they interact with directly and indirectly to ensure portfolio stability and accurate risk based pricing. 2022 will be a recovery year for the US market. Consumers keep shopping! Small businesses keep fighting! The shelves will be full soon.     Download Winter 21/22 Report