All posts by Gary Stockton

Explore how Experian's Ascend Commercial Suite helps risk managers navigate portfolio risk in an uncertain economy with data insights and strategic tools.

If you crave economic insight into small business trends, download the Spring Beyond the Trends report from Experian, a unique outlook on the economy.

A recent credit study of a regional utility found significant numbers of small businesses with no credit profile despite a history of positive payments.

This week Experian and Oxford Economics released the Q4 2022 Main Street Report. The report provides insight into the financial well-being of the small business landscape. Critical factors in the Main Street Report include business credit data (credit balances, delinquency rates, utilization rates, etc.) and macroeconomic information (employment rates, income, retail sales, industrial production, etc.). Report Highlights Consumer sentiment improved in Q4 2022, despite a softening of spending behavior. This positive behavior has contributed to the positive health and growth perspective of small businesses heading into 2023, leading to stable cash flow performance. In addition, commercial lending markets remained open and commercial delinquencies returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, higher goods and services costs may pressure spending as affordability tightens and personal cash flows thin. The US economy grew strongly in Q4 2022, but the core of the economy was soft, indicating that a repeat performance in early 2023 is unlikely. The trend in job growth has decelerated, and the Fed needs to engineer a soft landing. The Fed is pushing back against market expectations of rate cuts and is likely to hike more than expected. Download Q4 2022 Report  

Get the latest quarterly small business trends Mark your calendars! Experian and Oxford Economics will present key findings in the latest Main Street Report for Q4 2022 during the Quarterly Business Credit Review. Ryan Sweet, Oxford’s U.S. Chief Economist will share his take on Experian’s most recent small business credit data and a macroeconomic outlook for the coming quarter. Brodie Oldham, Experian’s V.P. of Commercial Data Science, will cover commercial credit trends. Presenters Brodie Oldham, V.P. Commercial Data Science Experian Ryan Sweet, U.S. Chief Economist Oxford Economics Q4 2022 Main Street Report The Q4 2022 Experian/Oxford Economics Main Street report will release at the end of February. If you are not already subscribed to thought leadership updates, be sure to sign up for updates on our Commercial Insights Hub. Event Details Date: Thursday, March 9th, 2023Time: 10:00 a.m. (Pacific), 1:00 p.m. (Eastern) Why you should attend: Leading Experts on Commercial and Macro-Economic Trends Credit insights and trends on 30+ Million active businesses Ask our panel questions in real-time Industry Hot Topics Covered (Inclusive of Business Owner and Small Business Data) Commercial Insights you cannot get anywhere else Peer Insights with Interactive Polls (Participate) Discover and understand small business trends to make informed decisions Actionable takeaways based on recent credit performance Save My Seat

After a busy holiday season, we are pleased to announce the publication of our Winter 2023 Beyond the Trends report. Holiday spending increases by 7.6% Small businesses' health and performance in 2022 was strong as consumers spent beyond their means, to prolong demand behaviors learned in an economy overflowing with stimulus, coming out of the pandemic where personal savings was running lean. Despite impact of inflation on incomes, spending continues Retailers will fight for consumer spending, but consumers will find their purchasing power limited as interest rates increase and assumption of unexpected debt payments. Other highlights Consumer credit overall decreased 16% month over month in the fourth quarter as delinquencies climbed as mortgage markets continue to slow. New unsecured credit card debt rose 4% as thin consumer savings forced more debt to the consumers credit card. New U.S. emerging businesses seeking credit is down 5.7% year over year as new business applications in the U.S. slow and commercial delinquencies rise.     Experian saw a 61% YOY increase in the percentage of high risk small business credit inquiries with emerging business seeking credit up 78.5% year over year with limited commercial credit history in the 4th quarter leading to lower-than-normal average credit lines across the industry. Small business lenders will focus on four critical areas in the coming months to ensure their businesses remain stable and continue to grow. Market expansionDeterring fraud Limiting portfolio exposureDeveloping loyalty among profitable customers Download Winter 2023 Beyond The Trends Report

The advanced Q1 2023 GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.1%, down from 2.6% in Q4 2022.

Labor market gives the Fed cover to keep hiking Experian Business Information Services and the economists at Oxford Economics have just released the Q3 2022 Main Street Report. The report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape, as well as providing commentary around what specific trends mean for credit grantors and the small-business community. Report Overview Sustained consumer spending and strong job market performance have perpetuated U.S. small business health and positive market sentiment. The third quarter highlighted open and growing commercial lending markets, inclusive of all tiers of credit risk, even as measured commercial delinquencies returned to pre-pandemic levels. Signals in the financial market point to a heightened risk of a more significant U.S. economic slow-down in 2023, as consumers change spending behavior as affordability tightens and personal cashflows are challenged first in the lower income segments. Download Report Join us for the Q3 Quarterly Business Credit Review Mark your calendars for December 6th! Experian and Oxford Economics will present key findings in the latest Main Street Report for Q3 2022 during the Quarterly Business Credit Review. Ryan Sweet, Oxford’s U.S. Chief Economist will share his take on Experian’s most recent small business credit data and a macroeconomic outlook for the coming quarter. Brodie Oldham, Experian’s V.P. of Commercial Data Science, will cover commercial credit trends.

Heading into the holiday season, we'll see if consumers continue to spend at high levels, or if higher prices, higher interest rates and lower savings create a drag on sales.