If you want to understand where the small business economy is heading, follow the credit.
This week’s Commercial Pulse Report highlights a growing divergence in how businesses access and manage capital, driven in large part by the accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence. While AI has become a central capability across industries, its impact is not evenly distributed. Instead, it is creating measurable differences in credit behavior, capital access, and financial discipline.
For risk leaders, this shift is not theoretical. It is already visible in the data—and it has meaningful implications for portfolio strategy, underwriting, and forward-looking risk assessment.
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The Emergence of High-Impact AI Industries
Experian’s analysis identifies three sectors where AI is expected to have the most significant and measurable impact on operations and strategy:
These “high-impact” industries are not just early adopters of AI—they are integrating it deeply into decisioning, operations, and customer engagement. As a result, they are beginning to behave differently from a credit perspective.
Credit Demand Is Accelerating—Faster Than the Market
One of the clearest signals is in credit demand.
Businesses operating in high-impact AI industries are seeking commercial credit at a significantly higher rate than their peers. As of January 2026, these businesses generated over 25% more credit inquiries per business than those in other industries—and the gap has been widening over the past two years.
This is not simply a cyclical increase. It reflects structural change.
AI-enabled businesses are investing—whether in infrastructure, talent, or technology integration. That investment requires capital, and lenders are seeing increased demand from these sectors as they scale.
For risk teams, this raises an important distinction: higher inquiry volume does not necessarily signal elevated risk—it may indicate growth-oriented behavior in sectors with strong forward momentum.
Greater Access to Credit—Backed by Lender Confidence
The demand side is only part of the story. Businesses in these industries are also receiving more credit—and in larger amounts.
- They hold more commercial credit accounts than businesses in other sectors
- The gap in commercial trades has widened from a slight disadvantage three years ago to a 3.5% advantage today
- Average credit limits are now approximately 15.8% higher for these businesses
These trends point to increasing lender confidence.
From a risk perspective, this suggests that lenders are not only responding to demand but are proactively allocating capital toward sectors perceived as having stronger growth prospects and operational resilience.
This creates a reinforcing cycle:
Higher AI adoption → stronger performance signals → increased credit access → further investment
The Most Important Insight: Higher Credit, Lower Utilization
While increased borrowing activity and higher credit limits are notable, the most important finding lies in how these businesses are managing that credit.
Despite greater access to capital, businesses in high-impact AI industries are:
- Carrying lower average balances
- Maintaining lower utilization rates
- Avoiding overextension
This is a critical signal.
In traditional risk frameworks, increased credit exposure is often associated with higher leverage and potential stress. However, in this case, the opposite pattern is emerging.
These businesses are accessing more credit—but using it more efficiently.
Lower utilization, particularly in the context of higher available limits, suggests:
- Strong liquidity management
- Strategic capital deployment
- Capacity buffers that can absorb volatility
From a credit risk standpoint, this reflects disciplined financial behavior rather than aggressive leverage.
Risk Performance Remains Stable
Perhaps the most compelling aspect of the data is what is not happening.
Despite:
- Higher credit inquiries
- More accounts
- Larger credit limits
…there is no corresponding increase in risk.
Credit performance metrics, including delinquency rates and risk scores, remain broadly comparable between high-impact AI industries and other sectors.
This challenges a common assumption that increased credit usage inherently leads to higher default risk.
Instead, the data suggests that AI adoption may be enhancing operational efficiency, decision-making, and financial management—allowing businesses to scale without proportionally increasing risk.
Implications for Risk Strategy
For financial institutions and risk leaders, these findings have several important implications.
- Traditional Signals May Need Recalibration
Higher credit demand and increased exposure in certain sectors should not automatically be interpreted as negative signals. Context matters—particularly when growth is paired with disciplined utilization. - Industry Segmentation Is Becoming More Critical
AI adoption is creating divergence across industries. Treating all sectors uniformly may obscure emerging opportunities—or risks. - Credit Models Should Incorporate Behavioral Nuance
Utilization patterns, credit mix, and inquiry behavior may carry different implications in AI-driven sectors. Models should evolve to reflect these differences. - Growth and Risk Are Not Always Opposing Forces
In high-impact AI industries, growth is being achieved without a proportional increase in risk. This suggests the potential for more optimized risk-return strategies.
A Structural Shift—Not a Temporary Trend
Artificial intelligence is no longer an emerging technology—it is a core driver of business transformation.
What makes this moment particularly important is not just the speed of adoption, but the measurable impact it is having on financial behavior.
The divergence between AI-driven industries and the broader market is already evident—and it is widening.
For risk leaders, the takeaway is clear:
The future of credit risk will not be defined solely by macroeconomic conditions, but increasingly by how businesses leverage technology to operate, grow, and manage capital.
Understanding that distinction—and acting on it—will be critical to staying ahead.
Learn more
- ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
- ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
- ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
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Small business formation remains one of the more notable trends in the U.S. economy. In August 532,000 new businesses launched across the country. While that was down from July, it remained well above historical averages. Since July 2020, an average of 455,000 new businesses have opened each month—56% higher than the pre-pandemic monthly average in 2018 and 2019. But the national numbers only tell part of the story. Watch The Commercial Pulse Update Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse report analysis examines where this growth is occurring and what it means for the commercial credit market. The data show that the South has emerged as an important center of small-business growth. And the businesses driving that expansion tend to have a different profile from their counterparts in other regions. For commercial lenders, understanding those differences can provide valuable context when evaluating new opportunities, credit demand and portfolio risk. Business growth is shifting geographically New business formation has increased across all U.S. regions, but the pace has not been uniform. Prior to 2018, regional differences in growth were relatively modest. During the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, the South led the country in new business application growth. Since 2022, the West has posted the strongest growth, while the South continues to account for the greatest volume of new business openings. One factor providing context for that growth is population. The population of the South has grown more than 7% since 2019. Since 2020 alone, the region has added more than 3.6 million residents, outpacing every other U.S. region. Meanwhile, populations in other parts of the country declined between 2020 and 2022 before beginning to recover. Business formation and population movement do not necessarily have a simple cause-and-effect relationship. But their parallel growth highlights how the geographic makeup of both consumers and businesses has been changing. Credit-active businesses are growing even faster in the South The shift becomes even clearer when looking at businesses using commercial credit. Experian data shows the number of credit-active businesses in the United States has increased 55% since 2018. Every region participated in that expansion, but the South experienced the greatest growth at 70%, followed by the North at 52%, West at 50% and Midwest at 36%. The South now represents approximately 39% of U.S. credit-active businesses. It also accounted for more than 40% of newly opened commercial accounts in 2026, compared with 37% in 2019. For commercial credit organizations, that means the South represents not just a growing population of businesses, but an increasingly significant share of businesses participating in the commercial credit ecosystem. Southern businesses tend to be smaller and younger The composition of this growth is just as important as its scale. Credit-active businesses in the South and West tend to skew smaller and younger than those in the North and Midwest. In the South, 53% of businesses generate less than $500,000 in annual revenue, while 59% have fewer than five employees. Only 36% have been operating for more than 10 years, compared with 43% in the Midwest. Those characteristics can influence how businesses interact with credit. A younger business, for example, may have had less time to establish multiple commercial credit relationships. That pattern appears in Experian’s data. Across the United States, the average number of commercial credit accounts per business has declined from approximately 1.8 in 2018 to 1.5 in 2026. The South experienced the steepest decline and currently has the fewest accounts per business. At the same time, commercial credit inquiries have increased since 2023, most recently peaking in early 2026. Inquiry rates have typically been higher in the Midwest and South. The combination of fewer existing accounts and elevated inquiry activity provides useful context for lenders seeking to understand the credit needs of a growing population of younger businesses. Credit utilization tells another part of the story Regional differences also appear after businesses establish credit relationships. Businesses in the Midwest and North opening new commercial accounts tend to receive higher lines than businesses in the South and West. At the same time, businesses in the South show higher commercial card utilization despite carrying somewhat lower average balances. Experian’s analysis points to lower credit lines as an important factor behind that relationship. These trends reinforce why looking beyond a single credit metric can be important. Higher utilization, for example, can take on additional context when considered alongside credit-line size, business age, balances and regional business formation. Growth brings opportunities—and risk factors to monitor Despite significant growth and changes in business composition, regional credit performance has remained relatively steady. Commercial delinquencies across all regions are near pre-pandemic levels, while commercial credit risk scores have been relatively stable. There are regional differences worth monitoring, however. Businesses in the South have lower average commercial credit scores than businesses in the other regions analyzed, and delinquency rates tend to be higher in the North and South than in the Midwest and West. The broader takeaway is not simply that there are more small businesses in the South. It is that the composition of the commercial market is evolving alongside that growth. The South represents a growing share of credit-active businesses and new commercial accounts. Many of those businesses are younger, smaller and have fewer established commercial credit relationships. Their credit needs and behaviors may therefore differ from those of more mature businesses in other parts of the country. For commercial lenders and risk leaders, understanding those distinctions can help provide greater context around acquisition, underwriting and portfolio management decisions. As small business formation continues, Experian will continue monitoring where that growth is occurring—and how the changing business landscape is showing up in commercial credit behavior. Learn more ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Where are small businesses growing in the U.S.? Experian data points to significant growth in the South. While new business formation has increased across the country, the South has consistently recorded the highest volume of new business openings and has seen the number of credit-active businesses grow 70% since 2018—compared with 55% nationally. Where are small businesses growing the most? The South has consistently had the largest volume of new business openings. The South led application growth during 2020–2021, while the West has posted the strongest growth rates since 2022. That distinction is important because it prevents the SEO headline from overstating what the data shows. Why has small business growth been so strong in the southern U.S.? The South has added more than 3.6 million residents since 2020, substantially outpacing other regions. Our report establishes a correlation rather than causation. 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