At A Glance
Delinquencies are rising in the logistics sector. This article explores credit risk trends in transportation and warehousing from Experian’s latest insights.As the U.S. economy continues to recalibrate post-pandemic, the transportation and warehousing segments of the logistics sector are signaling caution. While the broader logistics industry has remained in expansion mode, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals that delinquencies are rising—an early warning of growing risk in two of the economy’s most critical subsectors.
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Below, we explore how sector-specific credit trends, employment data, and market activity are evolving, and what they may mean for lenders, suppliers, and investors as we head into the final quarter of 2025.
Slowing Growth in the Logistics Sector
The U.S. logistics sector has experienced remarkable growth over the past decade. Between 2013 and 2023, the number of private logistics businesses doubled, peaking in Q4 2023. Since then, business formation has slowed, and for the first time in years, the number of logistics firms has declined—down by 2%.
Employment trends echo this slowdown. Between April 2020 and July 2022, logistics employment rose 25%. Since then, growth has nearly stalled, increasing by just 1.5%. This softening suggests that many logistics firms are adjusting operations and tightening resources in response to shifting demand and rising costs.
Inventory Pressure and LMI Performance
The Logistics Managers Index (LMI)—a diffusion index that tracks key logistics components like transportation, inventory, and warehousing—fell to 57.4 in September 2025. While still in expansion territory (above 50), it’s the lowest reading since March, indicating cooling momentum across the sector.
Inventory levels remain elevated, but rising inventory costs are beginning to pressure future planning. Since December 2023, inventory costs have steadily increased. Retailers typically adjust inventory levels in response to cost changes with a lag, meaning elevated costs could soon lead to leaner inventories—potentially pulling the LMI down further.
Warehousing utilization is also up, and prices have followed. As available space tightens, warehousing costs are rising, adding to the financial strain for logistics firms. This dynamic has the potential to further compress margins and reduce cash flow flexibility for small- and mid-sized operators.
Transportation Trends: Warning Signs Ahead
Transportation—a cornerstone of the logistics network—is showing early signs of contraction. Transportation utilization fell to 50 in September, right on the edge of entering contraction territory. A decline in utilization typically leads to an increase in transportation capacity, as seen in the most recent data, and declining transportation prices.
Lower prices benefit shippers but challenge carriers, particularly smaller players who operate on tighter margins. With costs rising across warehousing and inventory management, declining transportation revenue could tip the balance for many firms, increasing financial vulnerability.
Credit Demand and Originations Continue to Fall
Experian’s credit data paints a picture of declining demand for commercial credit within logistics. Since the pandemic, the percentage of monthly credit originations in the logistics sector has dropped sharply—from 4.5% to just 0.5%. This suggests businesses are becoming more cautious about taking on new debt.
Interestingly, while originations have declined, outstanding balances have remained steady, and in warehousing, they’ve even exceeded pre-pandemic levels. This could reflect longer repayment cycles, reduced cash flow, or delayed investment decisions—all potential risk flags.
Trucking: Dominant but at Risk
Within the logistics sector, trucking remains dominant, accounting for 82% of all open commercial credit trades. This segment relies heavily on commercial cards, which now make up 79% of open credit trades. These cards are often the first credit instrument used by new businesses, making them a leading indicator of early-stage credit performance.
While the prevalence of commercial cards reflects flexibility, it also comes with limitations. Lower credit limits and higher interest rates can create challenges during periods of cash flow strain, especially for operators managing fuel, maintenance, and payroll costs.
Rising Delinquencies and Declining Credit Scores
Perhaps the most concerning trend in this month’s report is the increase in late-stage delinquencies within the logistics sector. Since mid-2021, delinquencies have shifted from early-stage (1–30 days past due) to more serious late-stage (91+ days past due) balances.
In August 2025, 1–30 day delinquencies accounted for just 20 basis points of total past-due balances, while late-stage delinquencies accounted for 47 basis points—nearly double the 2019 average. As these deeper delinquencies mount, average commercial credit scores are declining, despite slight improvements earlier in 2024.
This trend is especially critical for lenders and suppliers. A shift toward aged receivables can signal liquidity challenges, operational inefficiencies, or broader sector stress. For businesses operating on thin margins or in highly competitive sub-industries, rising delinquencies could signal a tipping point.
What to Watch Going Forward
The outlook for the logistics sector remains mixed. While growth hasn’t reversed completely, the combination of rising costs, falling credit originations, and growing delinquencies indicates rising risk, particularly in transportation and warehousing.
Stakeholders should closely monitor:
- Changes in LMI component trends
- Late-stage delinquency rates across business segments
- Shifts in credit utilization and origination patterns
- Warehouse pricing and utilization metrics
These signals can offer early insight into shifting risk exposure across commercial portfolios.
Explore More Insights
Experian continues to provide actionable data to help businesses, lenders, and policymakers navigate uncertainty. To access the full Commercial Pulse Report and explore more insights on small business credit and sector-specific performance:
- ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
- ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
- ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Rising costs are continuing to squeeze American wallets — and perhaps nowhere is that more apparent than in the food sector. According to the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report (October 14, 2025), food prices are having a profound impact on where and how consumers choose to eat. With the Consumer Price Index for food rising 3.2% year-over-year, both full-service and limited-service restaurants are feeling the heat. Watch the Commercial Pulse Update Specifically, Full-Service Restaurant prices have surged 4.6%, while Limited-Service locations have seen more modest increases of 3.2%, the lowest pace in over a year. As price-sensitive consumers pull back on discretionary spending, Experian’s data shows a notable shift toward more affordable dining options—or a return to eating at home. Credit Demand Is Strong, But Approval May Be Slipping Even with shifting consumer habits, restaurants are not sitting idle. Experian’s credit data reveals that both Full-Service and Limited-Service Restaurants are actively seeking commercial credit — a likely sign of increased working capital needs in the face of inflation and tighter margins. However, access to that credit appears to be narrowing. Commercial inquiries from Full-Service Restaurants have risen to 1.7x pre-pandemic levels. Limited-Service Restaurants follow closely at 1.5x. Yet the number of credit-active Limited-Service establishments has declined, suggesting either a slowdown in approvals or reduced eligibility. This contrast implies that demand for financing is rising faster than approval rates, especially for smaller or newer businesses trying to stay competitive amid rising costs. Shrinking Credit Limits, Rising Utilization Restaurants are not only facing tighter access but also leaner terms. Average credit limits for new commercial card accounts have fallen significantly since 2021: Full-Service Restaurants: Down from $11,500 to under $6,000 Limited-Service Restaurants: Also trending downward Groceries (used as a benchmark for at-home eating): Down from $13,000 to $9,000 At the same time, credit utilization rates are climbing — an early warning sign that businesses are relying more heavily on revolving credit to manage day-to-day operations. Full-Service Restaurants now use 31.9% of available credit, up 4.6 points since 2023. Limited-Service Restaurants trail close behind at 31.8%. Groceries come in at 28.8%, showing increased pressure even in the at-home dining sector. Taken together, this combination of lower credit limits and higher utilization points to a tightening credit environment, which may be challenging for restaurants to navigate through the holiday and post-holiday seasons. Commercial Risk Trends Tell a Mixed Story One of the more nuanced insights in Experian’s report is how different restaurant types are weathering the current environment from a risk perspective: Full-Service Restaurants show only a modest decline in commercial risk scores (–0.8 points), suggesting relative resilience despite financial pressures. Limited-Service Restaurants, interestingly, saw a +1.4 point improvement in risk scores—indicating increased stability and better adaptation to current market conditions. In contrast, grocery retailers—the benchmark for “eat-at-home” sectors—experienced a -1.8 point drop in their risk scores, highlighting greater strain in that segment. This divergence reflects a growing consumer shift toward lower-cost food options like quick-service dining, potentially at the expense of both full-service restaurants and grocers. What It Means for Lenders and Business Strategy These trends carry significant implications for financial institutions, credit providers, and small business advisors: Rising inquiries + shrinking credit limits = greater risk of liquidity stress Stronger risk scores for Limited-Service = opportunity for more targeted lending or product offerings Elevated utilization rates = need to monitor credit performance closely, especially for revolving credit For business owners and operators, understanding these dynamics is crucial to building resilience in a volatile market. Strategic decisions around financing, menu pricing, staffing, and technology adoption will likely make or break performance through the next few quarters. Conclusion: A Sector Under Pressure — but not out While economic headwinds persist, the restaurant industry shows remarkable adaptability. Whether it’s shifting toward leaner operations, targeting lower-income consumers, or increasing credit usage to bridge cash flow gaps, the sector is evolving in real-time. As always, Experian’s insights provide a critical lens into these movements—helping lenders, business leaders, and policymakers make smarter decisions amid uncertainty. For the full analysis, including all small business credit trends, read the latest Experian Commercial Pulse Report. ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
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