In this article…
As marketers gear up for the 2025 holiday season, economic turbulence, tariffs, and shifting digital habits are changing how and where consumers shop. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still set to be the crown jewels of retail, but winning this year means leaning into data, omnichannel activation, and tools that help you do more with less as you start your Black Friday planning.
Let’s explore this year’s Black Friday trends in relation to last year’s and how to make the most of every opportunity in the 2025 holiday season.
Spending trends we saw in 2024
After years of economic uncertainty, Black Friday 2024 marked a return to retail “normalcy” with record-setting online and in-store shopping that reflected growing optimism and smarter behaviors:
- Online Black Friday sales increased by 10.2% from 2023, largely due to better-timed deals and earlier shopping.
- Mobile shopping made up 69% of global purchases.
- In-store traffic rebounded, surpassing online during Cyber Week for the first time in years.
- Buy now, pay later (BNPL) added $686 million to online sales — an 8.8% YoY increase — as consumers spread out their holiday spending.
- Retailers using AI tools (like chatbots and shopping assistants) saw up to 15% more conversions.
Ultimately, last year’s Black Friday e-commerce trends showed that shoppers prioritized flexible payments, value, and easy, personalized buying experiences.
Key products and categories in 2024
After years of favoring lower-cost essentials, consumers returned to higher-ticket purchases during Cyber Week. The share of expensive goods sold online rose over 15% compared to pre-season figures, with AI-powered product recommendations leading consumers to top-selling products like:
- AirPods Pro
- Ninja Creami
- Our Place Always Pan
- Vitamix blenders
- Oura Ring
The highest-performing gift categories included electronics, apparel, furniture and bedding, groceries, and cosmetics.
2024 Black Friday trends we expect to continue in 2025
As we reflect on a record-breaking 2024 holiday season, we predict many of the key Cyber Monday trends and Black Friday strategies for retailers in 2024 will carry over and intensify in 2025:
- Mobile will remain the primary shopping channel.
- The shift to early shopping will persist.
- AI-driven efficiencies will play an increasing role.
- Retailers that focus on the customer experience will capture the most wallet share.
As a marketer, you can use these insights to plan your Black Friday e-commerce strategy and meet audiences where and when they scroll and shop.
Projected growth YoY
While 2025 holiday retail shopping may not match the explosive growth of 2023 to 2024, consumers are still expected to show up in force for Black Friday in 2025. The National Retail Federation projects that overall U.S. holiday sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% compared to last year.
Experian’s 2025 Q1 consumer data paints a more nuanced picture:
- Mass retail transactions remain above 2024 levels, but YoY growth is slowing, from +8% in January to +4% in May.
- Department stores, which grew 10% YoY in January, have since declined to -3% by May.
- Apparel saw a similar trajectory, slipping from +7% growth in Q1 to slightly negative growth leading up to the summer months.
This slowdown suggests early signs of consumer fatigue, especially in discretionary categories, as inflation and tariffs continue to erode the spending power of price-sensitive consumers and small brands that rely heavily on imports.
Emerging trends and behaviors to expect in 2025
With inflation still weighing on household budgets and new tariffs potentially reducing consumer spending power by up to $78 billion, brands and shoppers are entering the holiday season with uncertainty. Roughly 91% of consumers may adjust their buying habits in response to tariff-driven price increases and inflation.
Consumers are still motivated by value, but they’ll expect more for their money and may start deal-hunting even earlier this season. You’ll need to be agile with your messaging, inventory, and budget allocation, as shoppers will still spend when the experience is seamless, personalized, and smart.
Let’s explore the key trends shaping the 2025 holiday season and how you can build them into your omnichannel marketing plan before the rush hits.
Omnichannel campaigns
In 2025, holiday shoppers will be more intentional than impulsive, which means they may zigzag between channels —browsing products on TikTok, watching TV ads, researching on Google, and checking out in-store or online before purchasing. They’ll want consistent, personalized experiences no matter where they engage.
This means you can’t rely on a single sales touchpoint anymore and must deliver a seamless experience wherever your audience spends time. Forrester shows 21% of global B2C leaders are already prioritizing omnichannel, which makes it a competitive necessity.
Fortunately, these efforts pay off. Omnichannel shoppers spend 1.5x more per month than those who shop on a single channel.
How Experian helps
Experian simplifies omnichannel marketing. Our identity graph connects hashed emails, mobile ad IDs (MAIDs), connected TV (CTV) IDs, and more so you can define your audience once and reach them consistently across every major channel.
With unified data, identity, and activation, we help you cut through platform silos and deliver coordinated, cross-device campaigns that actually feel connected.
Mobile first
In 2024, over 70% of orders and $195 billion in sales happened on mobile devices, according to Salesforce. As more consumers browse holiday deals from the couch, car, or checkout line, mobile-first shopping is among the top Cyber Monday retail trends and the main channel for on-the-go purchases.
For marketers, this means your mobile experience can make or break your Black Friday results. Responsive design, fast load times, and smooth checkout flows are the new expectations. Brands that invest in sleek mobile sites, intuitive apps, and frictionless buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) options will better meet and convert customers where they are at key moments.
How Experian helps
With Experian, you can reach mobile-first shoppers precisely at scale. Our identity graph connects MAIDs to individuals, so you can activate campaigns across mobile apps, SMS, and social with confidence. Define your audience once and deliver consistently personalized offers wherever they scroll, search, or shop.
CTV
On Black Friday 2025, shoppers won’t just be scrolling — they’ll be streaming, too. CTV continues to surge as a key channel for holiday shoppers, with viewership far outpacing ad spend. In 2024, CTV drove 31% of digital audience activation revenue. With nearly half of U.S. viewers expected to tune into free ad-supported TV (FAST) in 2025, CTV is becoming a core part of the Black Friday media mix.
Still, many marketers underestimate the channel, assuming it’s strictly an upper-funnel awareness channel rather than a direct driver of conversions. In reality, CTV can influence high-intent holiday shoppers closer to purchase than many assume.
With more consumers engaging with FAST during the holidays, CTV offers scalable, measurable reach and can fuel conversions across the entire funnel. And when paired with identity resolution and cross-device targeting, it becomes a powerful full-funnel tool.
How Experian helps
Experian gives marketers the household-level insights and activation capabilities to reach the right shoppers at the right frequency across platforms — a must for a high-volume weekend like Black Friday. Our identity graph connects devices within a household to manage frequency, unify messaging, and eliminate waste.
Plus, with support for Universal IDs like Unified I.D. 2.0 (UID2), you can activate audiences across CTV environments — including FAST — using login-based, privacy-compliant signals for a campaign that connects, converts, and performs on the biggest shopping weekend of the year.
Signal loss
Although Google has reversed its plan to phase out third-party cookies, 40% of browser traffic no longer supports them. You now need various identifiers across devices and platforms to get a complete customer view, especially during Black Friday when reach and precision are key.
That’s why marketers are shifting to alternative IDs like UID2, ID5, and Hadron ID to maintain reach. In 2024, we saw a 50% increase in Experian clients using alternative IDs and a 30% jump in the number resolved to individuals in our Digital Graph. These IDs are unlocking up to 60% incremental reach in campaigns compared to cookies.
Preparing a multi-ID approach and incorporating privacy-first strategies, such as contextual targeting, can give you a competitive edge this holiday season.
How Experian helps
Experian’s identity solutions connect all your digital and offline identifiers into a single, privacy-forward customer profile. This lets you recognize and reach your audiences no matter what device or platform they’re using.
Plus, with Contextually-Indexed Audiences, you can activate high-performing segments instantly in major demand-side platforms (DSPs) without cookies to maintain and improve addressability during the holidays.
RMNs
Retail media networks (RMNs) are set to capture 20% of digital ad spend in 2025. In particular, off-site retail media is expected to surge 42.1% this year, driving more Black Friday campaigns into channels like CTV, programmatic, and social.
This shift reflects a growing demand for full-funnel strategies, broader reach, and cross-channel measurement. RMNs that extend their first-party data beyond owned platforms will be best positioned to deliver results during peak shopping periods like Cyber Week.
However, off-site success hinges on clean, connected data. Many RMNs still face fragmented views of their customers, making it harder to scale audiences and measure performance.
How Experian helps
Experian helps RMNs scale off-site by resolving fragmented identities, enriching first-party data, and enabling seamless activation across channels. Our identity graph connects key digital identifiers to unify customer profiles, while our audience insights add depth with demographic, behavioral, and purchase data.
Curation
Curation is quickly becoming a go-to Black Friday marketing strategy, helping advertisers connect with high-value audiences by blending inventory with audience and contextual data. In fact, by 2026, private marketplace ad spending is projected to grow by $31 billion.
Instead of choosing between wide-open auctions or direct publisher deals, curation offers a powerful middle ground through curated private marketplaces (PMPs) built on first-party publisher data, contextual signals, and alternative IDs.
How Experian helps
Now unified with Audigent, Experian is setting a new standard for curated media buying. Our Curated Deals combine Experian’s powerful identity and data capabilities with Audigent’s flexible activation and audience customization.
You can activate high-performing audiences across DSPs or directly through Audigent’s PMPs to maximize precision, privacy, and scale ahead of the biggest shopping week of the year.
AI-powered shopping experiences
AI is becoming a co-pilot for holiday shoppers and reshaping the customer journey. From researching gift ideas and comparing prices to relying on personalized product recommendations and AI chatbots for faster service, consumers are using AI to shop smarter.
Salesforce reports that AI influenced 19% of holiday purchases in 2024 — a 6% increase from the previous year. In an Experian survey, shoppers shared they’re also using AI to help with BOPIS logistics and even choosing which BNPL option to use at checkout. Influencer content powered by AI and social algorithms is also guiding purchases in real time.
This holiday season, brands that weave AI into their digital storefronts, payment options, and social strategies will drive conversion.
How Experian helps
Experian uses AI and machine learning to help marketers deliver faster, smarter Black Friday campaigns. Our Digital Graph improves targeting with advanced household connections, while machine learning models fill in data gaps and identify high-intent shoppers. We also offer AI-powered audience recommendations and real-time contextual signals, enabling you to quickly build and activate the right segments at scale.
How to prepare for Black Friday 2025
Now that we’ve covered Black Friday trends for this year, it’s time to talk about how you can build them into a data-powered marketing strategy. Here’s where we suggest you focus your Black Friday planning for Cyber Week 2025.
Understand and segment your audience
Winning Black Friday 2025 starts with knowing your audience and how they shop so you can reach them at optimal times with messaging that resonates. Whether you’re targeting early-bird deal hunters or last-minute gifters, audience precision is the foundation for success this holiday season — and Experian can help.
Purchase intent
Drive performance by identifying consumers actively in the market for holiday purchases. With Experian’s holiday shopping audiences (available across major DSPs and platforms like Audigent, The Trade Desk, and DirectTV), you can reach:
- Last-Minute Shoppers
- One-Stop Holiday Shoppers
- Post-Holiday Shoppers
- Heavy Gift Givers
These intent-rich segments can help you capture demand at every phase of the season.
Spending behavior
While some consumers may splurge this year, others are tightening their belts due to economic turbulence. Experian’s pre-built holiday audiences help you target accordingly, with segments like:
- Holiday High Spenders and Moderate Spenders
- Big Box/Club Stores
- Discount Holiday Shoppers, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday Shoppers
These segments can help you optimize campaign spend based on wallet size.
Channel preferences
Knowing where your audience shops is just as important as how much they spend or what they buy. Experian offers audiences like:
- eCommerce Diehards
- Brick-and-Mortar Diehards
- Impulse Buyers
- BOPIS Shoppers
Tailor your media mix and creative strategy to align with their channel behavior, whether they’re browsing in-store, online, or on social.
Demographic, lifestyle, and behavioral data
Experian helps you tap into rich demographic and lifestyle data to better understand and engage high-value segments, whether that’s suburban deal hunters, Gen Z beauty buyers, or luxury holiday splurgers.
And by layering in Experian Marketing Attributes — 5,000+ attributes that include financial behaviors, interests, shopping patterns, car ownership, media consumption, and more — you can gain a clearer picture of age, gender, purchase behaviors, and content habits for refined holiday targeting.
With our data marketplace, audiences are more accessible and actionable than ever. We offer:
- Diverse, high-fidelity partner audiences
- Easily activate audiences from 31+ premium data providers, including:
- Attain: Real-time, permissioned transaction data from 8 million U.S. consumers
- Alliant: Predictive audiences built from billions of consumer transactions across key verticals
- Circana: Loyalty-based CPG and general merchandise audiences
- Dun & Bradstreet: Privacy-compliant B2B audiences based on firmographic and professional attributes
- Easily activate audiences from 31+ premium data providers, including:
- Flexible activation across top platforms
- Our identity graph powers our data marketplace, enabling audiences to be easily activated and highly addressable across display, mobile, and CTV with 10+ activation platforms, including Madhive, Open AP, Optimum, and Yieldmo.
- Privacy-first audience planning
- All data in our marketplace meets strict privacy and compliance standards, helping brands scale campaigns confidently.
- Custom and pre-built audience options
- Mix and match from 2,400+ Experian Audiences and Partner Audiences to find the right shoppers and meet your campaign goals.
Our data marketplace delivers the people you want to reach, where you need to reach them, with the insights to optimize in real time.
Personalize promotions
One-size-fits-all promotions won’t cut it in 2025. Consumers expect relevance at every touchpoint and ignore what feels generic or off-base. With the abundance of Black Friday offers, shoppers are filtering fast and prioritizing brands that understand their needs, preferences, and timing.
Here’s how you can deliver on these demands:
- Deliver targeted product recommendations: Whether through chatbots or personalized emails, consumers want help quickly finding what they need. Brands that invest in smart recommendation engines position themselves to drive cart additions and increase average order value (AOV).
- Customize promo codes by segment: Everyone loves discounts, but not all shoppers should get the same one. Use customer segments like high-spenders, last-minute shoppers, or deal-hunters from Experian’s syndicated holiday audiences to offer custom promo codes, boost conversions, and avoid over-discounting with those who would buy regardless.
- Optimize the timing of offers: Timing is everything during Cyber Week when inboxes and feeds are flooded. Use our behavioral and lifestyle data to determine when your segments are most active and likely to buy, and schedule your best offers for maximum impact.
- Use Experian Activity Feed: Black Friday 2025 will span devices, stores, and channels. Activity Feed connects the dots between online ad exposures and offline sales, helping you measure the impact of your campaigns and identify what drives conversions.
Case study: How Cuebiq increased match rates with Activity Feed
Using Activity Feed, Cuebiq, resolved digital ad exposures to MAIDs so they could know the impact of their campaigns on in-store visits and purchases.
Within three weeks, they resolved 85% of ad events to households across web, mobile, and CTV, giving their clients a clearer view of what drove store traffic and sales.
“In just a few weeks, they were able to maximize the match rate across the fragmented digital inventory, solving a huge problem when it comes to cross-channel attribution.”
Luca Bocchiardi,Director of Product, Cuebiq
Experian can help you win big this holiday season
Marketers are entering this season with more pressure, more complexity, and more opportunity than ever before. Whether you’re grappling with signal loss, evolving your omnichannel mix, or launching your first curated PMP, Experian has the data, identity infrastructure, and activation tools to help you win. Download our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, in collaboration with GroundTruth, to access our predictions for this year’s holiday season.
Want help building your Black Friday marketing strategy? Let’s talk.
Latest posts
Addressable TV has been through a transformation in the past year. Streaming content has become the most coveted space for creators and advertisers with the rise of new apps and platforms; but the influx of stay-at-home orders around the country have shifted television viewership as we know it, and streaming apps are popping up in droves to take advantage. So, how can you? With no shortage of opportunities to advertise on addressable TV and CTV, how does it fit into the media mix? And furthermore, how can you attribute this household-level device into your overall strategy? Tying it all together Layering addressable TV within digital ad campaigns couldn’t be easier today — but applying the right targeting and cadence between all of your digital efforts; and tying them together in attribution takes the right kind of data. Marketers can use CTV identifiers coupled with other device identifiers available in The Tapad Graph to not only target impressions but also map addressable TVs within the consumer journey; and unify strategies between household decision makers to better personalize messaging. 1 The Trade Desk Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript, August 2020; 2 iSpot Report, via Deadline, July 2020; 3 Flixed.io, January 2020 Contact us today
For the past several years ad-tech defined the value of identity at the individual level; made possible by the evolution of data, technology and machine-learning. But, earlier this year COVID-19 set in motion many shifts in consumer digital behavior. The more we’ve been working and learning from home, using devices that are shared amongst an entire household, the more apparent it is that marketers need to shift their strategies to align with these changes. Did you know the average household owns eleven or more connected devices? And the longer we’ve been at home, the more these devices are shared by multiple individuals. If you’re looking for a few simple ways to evolve from an individual focused strategy to a household strategy, here’s a good place to start: Audience segmentation Traditionally, audiences are built with a narrow focus on a single user, and what known attributes about that individual or their brand engagement can be leveraged for a targeting strategy. Now that screens are being shared between multiple users in a home, how can you be sure you’re identifying them correctly, and thus, segmenting them in the right buckets for targeting? The key lies in the ability to connect those points through identity resolution. Using ad exposure from household level devices, followed by a second engagement from an individual within that household can indicate a user is a better candidate for purchase or conversion than others. So before you build audiences for targeting, you can qualify them at the household level for segmentation with more confidence. Example: An auto advertiser uses audience segments from a third party provider such as ‘auto intenders’ to target individuals with new pricing offers. They would continue retargeting these users, unaware that some are connected in the same household, and thus are probably not all in the market to actually get a new car. By bucketing users that share a common household device within this third party segment, they can hone in on which individuals are actually in-market for a car and evolve their strategy to be more effective. Targeting Retargeting, frequency capping and sequential messaging have always been meant for an individual user — the more they’re exposed to your brand in a personalized way, the more likely they are to take the desired action. But, have you considered that multiple users could have a shared initial exposure to your brand? Today, you can target a household of potential consumers on a shared device like a CTV, and employ those retargeting strategies based on that common initial exposure. Starting at the household level, means you can compare movement through the funnel between different individuals in that household, and tailor your targeting accordingly. Perhaps you realize only one person in that household will convert and you tailor messaging to them more frequently, while confidently suppressing the other individuals. Example: a CPG brand uses OTT advertising, but doesn’t incorporate it within their sequential strategy, because they consider it just a ‘brand awareness’ opportunity. By using OTT more strategically as a household level engagement, it can reveal which individuals within a household are more favorable towards a brand further down the funnel. So, you can spend impressions targeting those users, rather than wasting impressions on multiple individuals within the household. Measurement Measurement and attribution are imperative to understanding the path to purchase and making strategies more efficient over time. Often that efficiency involves adding or removing devices and channels from a targeting strategy based on their contribution to an action or conversion by an individual. This year we’re seeing addressable TV devices explode in use, which are shared at the household level. Even desktop computers are being used by more people in the home due to COVID-19. So, assuming a linear path of attribution by an individual is missing the full picture. Identity resolution can help you understand where messaging was more effective for some users in the household than others, and leverage that insight to continue more effective strategies in the future. Example: Without a household view, a direct-to-consumer brand would assume all interactions from one device would be coming from a single individual, and that could create a higher cost-per analysis. By incorporating the household level devices into attribution models, they can find efficiencies between touch points of multiple users, and learn how those split off into individual paths to conversion. Not only can this DTC create a more effective model, but they can use that model to create cost efficiencies in the future. Contact us today
With the long-term effects to the economy unknown, many consumers are feeling the financial impact, while others are looking for opportunities, resulting in a transformational shift in spending. Some brands are experiencing decreased or paused marketing budgets, and you may be trepidatious about making the right decisions in your efforts to grow share of wallet. Recent events have been an impetus for change and we’re seeing brands make modifications to traditional marketing strategies. Some are developing innovative technologies and utilizing new sources of data and analytics. As we look at how these changes impact marketing results, we see the gap grow between those brands who are equipped to pivot and implement new strategies quickly, versus those who are not. So what steps can your organization implement now to make the smartest choices for both your customers and your business to secure more share of wallet? Here are four ideas to accelerate the success of your next financial marketing campaign: 1. Meet your customers wherever they are: Digital-first strategies have never been more relevant than they are right now. While consumers have fully embraced online engagement, marketers are even more focused on reaching high-value segments in the channels they utilize. By using an informed, data-driven strategy that includes preferred marketing communication channels and decision-making styles, engagement increases across those channels your target audience frequents the most. For example, are they heavy social media users? Do they prefer streaming TV? Or do they tend to rely on financial advice vs. performing their own research? To drive take rates, your audience must be exposed to a tailored message, in the right channel, and possibly multiple times. 2. Use messaging that resonates: As consumers refocus priorities, their expectations of brands with whom they do business are ever-increasing. Reflecting an understanding of the current needs and interests of your customers and prospects is an undertone that can only help strengthen their view of your brand. Consumer behavior has changed and is unlikely to revert to what was, so you want to be relevant, but you also do not want to be seen as ‘tone deaf’. As a result, consider revising your segmentation strategy to leverage predictive insights, such as household economic indicators, financial behaviors, lifestyle propensities and interests to help shape your message into one that truly makes an impact. 3. Prove the worth of your campaign: New consumer journeys are being formulated and showing ROI is imperative as your marketing budget is scrutinized. Having the right industry-relevant metrics and reports to analyze and share with leadership are key. Demonstrate that your campaigns are contributing to bottom-line success—and justify future campaigns—by using data-driven measurement insights collected across multiple reads and countless touchpoints. Marketing budgets are being scrutinized now more than ever, so showing ROI is critical. Having the right metrics and reports to analyze and share with leadership are key. 4. Follow government regulations—leverage Fair Lending-friendly audiences: Whether you’re cross-selling or prospecting, now is the time to identify the right audiences with rich data insights to not only execute impactful campaigns but adhere to government regulations that protect consumers and your organization. Trusting that the data you are activating follows Fair Lending Laws, including the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (“ECOA”) and the Fair Housing Act (“FHA”) is crucial. The Federal ECOA prohibits creditors from discriminating against credit applicants on the basis of several prohibited factors. Developing people-based segments that are not derived using these factors positions you to follow these regulations. Check out our previous blog post about Fair Lending-friendly audiences here. As you transition to new operating models, access to current and accurate consumer data can provide confidence in campaign potential, help you avoid business risk, enable you to respond to market changes and make better decisions. Experian can help you implement these strategies and put your brand unique position for growth. From start to finish, we provide the marketing solutions you need to plan, build and execute successful, Fair Lending-friendly campaigns to cross-sell to existing customers and acquire new customers. *Experian Fair Lending-friendly audiences do not constitute legal advice or otherwise assure compliance with the FHA, ECOA, or any other applicable laws. It’s recommended to seek legal advice with respect to the use of data in connection with lending decisions or application and compliance with applicable laws. Contact us today