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As marketers gear up for the 2025 holiday season, economic turbulence, tariffs, and shifting digital habits are changing how and where consumers shop. Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still set to be the crown jewels of retail, but winning this year means leaning into data, omnichannel activation, and tools that help you do more with less as you start your Black Friday planning.
Let’s explore this year’s Black Friday trends in relation to last year’s and how to make the most of every opportunity in the 2025 holiday season.
Spending trends we saw in 2024
After years of economic uncertainty, Black Friday 2024 marked a return to retail “normalcy” with record-setting online and in-store shopping that reflected growing optimism and smarter behaviors:
- Online Black Friday sales increased by 10.2% from 2023, largely due to better-timed deals and earlier shopping.
- Mobile shopping made up 69% of global purchases.
- In-store traffic rebounded, surpassing online during Cyber Week for the first time in years.
- Buy now, pay later (BNPL) added $686 million to online sales — an 8.8% YoY increase — as consumers spread out their holiday spending.
- Retailers using AI tools (like chatbots and shopping assistants) saw up to 15% more conversions.
Ultimately, last year’s Black Friday e-commerce trends showed that shoppers prioritized flexible payments, value, and easy, personalized buying experiences.
Key products and categories in 2024
After years of favoring lower-cost essentials, consumers returned to higher-ticket purchases during Cyber Week. The share of expensive goods sold online rose over 15% compared to pre-season figures, with AI-powered product recommendations leading consumers to top-selling products like:
- AirPods Pro
- Ninja Creami
- Our Place Always Pan
- Vitamix blenders
- Oura Ring
The highest-performing gift categories included electronics, apparel, furniture and bedding, groceries, and cosmetics.
2024 Black Friday trends we expect to continue in 2025
As we reflect on a record-breaking 2024 holiday season, we predict many of the key Cyber Monday trends and Black Friday strategies for retailers in 2024 will carry over and intensify in 2025:
- Mobile will remain the primary shopping channel.
- The shift to early shopping will persist.
- AI-driven efficiencies will play an increasing role.
- Retailers that focus on the customer experience will capture the most wallet share.
As a marketer, you can use these insights to plan your Black Friday e-commerce strategy and meet audiences where and when they scroll and shop.
Projected growth YoY
While 2025 holiday retail shopping may not match the explosive growth of 2023 to 2024, consumers are still expected to show up in force for Black Friday in 2025. The National Retail Federation projects that overall U.S. holiday sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% compared to last year.
Experian’s 2025 Q1 consumer data paints a more nuanced picture:
- Mass retail transactions remain above 2024 levels, but YoY growth is slowing, from +8% in January to +4% in May.
- Department stores, which grew 10% YoY in January, have since declined to -3% by May.
- Apparel saw a similar trajectory, slipping from +7% growth in Q1 to slightly negative growth leading up to the summer months.
This slowdown suggests early signs of consumer fatigue, especially in discretionary categories, as inflation and tariffs continue to erode the spending power of price-sensitive consumers and small brands that rely heavily on imports.
Emerging trends and behaviors to expect in 2025
With inflation still weighing on household budgets and new tariffs potentially reducing consumer spending power by up to $78 billion, brands and shoppers are entering the holiday season with uncertainty. Roughly 91% of consumers may adjust their buying habits in response to tariff-driven price increases and inflation.
Consumers are still motivated by value, but they’ll expect more for their money and may start deal-hunting even earlier this season. You’ll need to be agile with your messaging, inventory, and budget allocation, as shoppers will still spend when the experience is seamless, personalized, and smart.
Let’s explore the key trends shaping the 2025 holiday season and how you can build them into your omnichannel marketing plan before the rush hits.
Omnichannel campaigns
In 2025, holiday shoppers will be more intentional than impulsive, which means they may zigzag between channels —browsing products on TikTok, watching TV ads, researching on Google, and checking out in-store or online before purchasing. They’ll want consistent, personalized experiences no matter where they engage.
This means you can’t rely on a single sales touchpoint anymore and must deliver a seamless experience wherever your audience spends time. Forrester shows 21% of global B2C leaders are already prioritizing omnichannel, which makes it a competitive necessity.
Fortunately, these efforts pay off. Omnichannel shoppers spend 1.5x more per month than those who shop on a single channel.
How Experian helps
Experian simplifies omnichannel marketing. Our identity graph connects hashed emails, mobile ad IDs (MAIDs), connected TV (CTV) IDs, and more so you can define your audience once and reach them consistently across every major channel.
With unified data, identity, and activation, we help you cut through platform silos and deliver coordinated, cross-device campaigns that actually feel connected.
Mobile first
In 2024, over 70% of orders and $195 billion in sales happened on mobile devices, according to Salesforce. As more consumers browse holiday deals from the couch, car, or checkout line, mobile-first shopping is among the top Cyber Monday retail trends and the main channel for on-the-go purchases.
For marketers, this means your mobile experience can make or break your Black Friday results. Responsive design, fast load times, and smooth checkout flows are the new expectations. Brands that invest in sleek mobile sites, intuitive apps, and frictionless buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) options will better meet and convert customers where they are at key moments.
How Experian helps
With Experian, you can reach mobile-first shoppers precisely at scale. Our identity graph connects MAIDs to individuals, so you can activate campaigns across mobile apps, SMS, and social with confidence. Define your audience once and deliver consistently personalized offers wherever they scroll, search, or shop.
CTV
On Black Friday 2025, shoppers won’t just be scrolling — they’ll be streaming, too. CTV continues to surge as a key channel for holiday shoppers, with viewership far outpacing ad spend. In 2024, CTV drove 31% of digital audience activation revenue. With nearly half of U.S. viewers expected to tune into free ad-supported TV (FAST) in 2025, CTV is becoming a core part of the Black Friday media mix.
Still, many marketers underestimate the channel, assuming it’s strictly an upper-funnel awareness channel rather than a direct driver of conversions. In reality, CTV can influence high-intent holiday shoppers closer to purchase than many assume.
With more consumers engaging with FAST during the holidays, CTV offers scalable, measurable reach and can fuel conversions across the entire funnel. And when paired with identity resolution and cross-device targeting, it becomes a powerful full-funnel tool.
How Experian helps
Experian gives marketers the household-level insights and activation capabilities to reach the right shoppers at the right frequency across platforms — a must for a high-volume weekend like Black Friday. Our identity graph connects devices within a household to manage frequency, unify messaging, and eliminate waste.
Plus, with support for Universal IDs like Unified I.D. 2.0 (UID2), you can activate audiences across CTV environments — including FAST — using login-based, privacy-compliant signals for a campaign that connects, converts, and performs on the biggest shopping weekend of the year.
Signal loss
Although Google has reversed its plan to phase out third-party cookies, 40% of browser traffic no longer supports them. You now need various identifiers across devices and platforms to get a complete customer view, especially during Black Friday when reach and precision are key.
That’s why marketers are shifting to alternative IDs like UID2, ID5, and Hadron ID to maintain reach. In 2024, we saw a 50% increase in Experian clients using alternative IDs and a 30% jump in the number resolved to individuals in our Digital Graph. These IDs are unlocking up to 60% incremental reach in campaigns compared to cookies.
Preparing a multi-ID approach and incorporating privacy-first strategies, such as contextual targeting, can give you a competitive edge this holiday season.
How Experian helps
Experian’s identity solutions connect all your digital and offline identifiers into a single, privacy-forward customer profile. This lets you recognize and reach your audiences no matter what device or platform they’re using.
Plus, with Contextually-Indexed Audiences, you can activate high-performing segments instantly in major demand-side platforms (DSPs) without cookies to maintain and improve addressability during the holidays.
RMNs
Retail media networks (RMNs) are set to capture 20% of digital ad spend in 2025. In particular, off-site retail media is expected to surge 42.1% this year, driving more Black Friday campaigns into channels like CTV, programmatic, and social.
This shift reflects a growing demand for full-funnel strategies, broader reach, and cross-channel measurement. RMNs that extend their first-party data beyond owned platforms will be best positioned to deliver results during peak shopping periods like Cyber Week.
However, off-site success hinges on clean, connected data. Many RMNs still face fragmented views of their customers, making it harder to scale audiences and measure performance.
How Experian helps
Experian helps RMNs scale off-site by resolving fragmented identities, enriching first-party data, and enabling seamless activation across channels. Our identity graph connects key digital identifiers to unify customer profiles, while our audience insights add depth with demographic, behavioral, and purchase data.
Curation
Curation is quickly becoming a go-to Black Friday marketing strategy, helping advertisers connect with high-value audiences by blending inventory with audience and contextual data. In fact, by 2026, private marketplace ad spending is projected to grow by $31 billion.
Instead of choosing between wide-open auctions or direct publisher deals, curation offers a powerful middle ground through curated private marketplaces (PMPs) built on first-party publisher data, contextual signals, and alternative IDs.
How Experian helps
Now unified with Audigent, Experian is setting a new standard for curated media buying. Our Curated Deals combine Experian’s powerful identity and data capabilities with Audigent’s flexible activation and audience customization.
You can activate high-performing audiences across DSPs or directly through Audigent’s PMPs to maximize precision, privacy, and scale ahead of the biggest shopping week of the year.
AI-powered shopping experiences
AI is becoming a co-pilot for holiday shoppers and reshaping the customer journey. From researching gift ideas and comparing prices to relying on personalized product recommendations and AI chatbots for faster service, consumers are using AI to shop smarter.
Salesforce reports that AI influenced 19% of holiday purchases in 2024 — a 6% increase from the previous year. In an Experian survey, shoppers shared they’re also using AI to help with BOPIS logistics and even choosing which BNPL option to use at checkout. Influencer content powered by AI and social algorithms is also guiding purchases in real time.
This holiday season, brands that weave AI into their digital storefronts, payment options, and social strategies will drive conversion.
How Experian helps
Experian uses AI and machine learning to help marketers deliver faster, smarter Black Friday campaigns. Our Digital Graph improves targeting with advanced household connections, while machine learning models fill in data gaps and identify high-intent shoppers. We also offer AI-powered audience recommendations and real-time contextual signals, enabling you to quickly build and activate the right segments at scale.
How to prepare for Black Friday 2025
Now that we’ve covered Black Friday trends for this year, it’s time to talk about how you can build them into a data-powered marketing strategy. Here’s where we suggest you focus your Black Friday planning for Cyber Week 2025.
Understand and segment your audience
Winning Black Friday 2025 starts with knowing your audience and how they shop so you can reach them at optimal times with messaging that resonates. Whether you’re targeting early-bird deal hunters or last-minute gifters, audience precision is the foundation for success this holiday season — and Experian can help.
Purchase intent
Drive performance by identifying consumers actively in the market for holiday purchases. With Experian’s holiday shopping audiences (available across major DSPs and platforms like Audigent, The Trade Desk, and DirectTV), you can reach:
- Last-Minute Shoppers
- One-Stop Holiday Shoppers
- Post-Holiday Shoppers
- Heavy Gift Givers
These intent-rich segments can help you capture demand at every phase of the season.
Spending behavior
While some consumers may splurge this year, others are tightening their belts due to economic turbulence. Experian’s pre-built holiday audiences help you target accordingly, with segments like:
- Holiday High Spenders and Moderate Spenders
- Big Box/Club Stores
- Discount Holiday Shoppers, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday Shoppers
These segments can help you optimize campaign spend based on wallet size.
Channel preferences
Knowing where your audience shops is just as important as how much they spend or what they buy. Experian offers audiences like:
- eCommerce Diehards
- Brick-and-Mortar Diehards
- Impulse Buyers
- BOPIS Shoppers
Tailor your media mix and creative strategy to align with their channel behavior, whether they’re browsing in-store, online, or on social.
Demographic, lifestyle, and behavioral data
Experian helps you tap into rich demographic and lifestyle data to better understand and engage high-value segments, whether that’s suburban deal hunters, Gen Z beauty buyers, or luxury holiday splurgers.
And by layering in Experian Marketing Attributes — 5,000+ attributes that include financial behaviors, interests, shopping patterns, car ownership, media consumption, and more — you can gain a clearer picture of age, gender, purchase behaviors, and content habits for refined holiday targeting.
With our data marketplace, audiences are more accessible and actionable than ever. We offer:
- Diverse, high-fidelity partner audiences
- Easily activate audiences from 31+ premium data providers, including:
- Attain: Real-time, permissioned transaction data from 8 million U.S. consumers
- Alliant: Predictive audiences built from billions of consumer transactions across key verticals
- Circana: Loyalty-based CPG and general merchandise audiences
- Dun & Bradstreet: Privacy-compliant B2B audiences based on firmographic and professional attributes
- Easily activate audiences from 31+ premium data providers, including:
- Flexible activation across top platforms
- Our identity graph powers our data marketplace, enabling audiences to be easily activated and highly addressable across display, mobile, and CTV with 10+ activation platforms, including Madhive, Open AP, Optimum, and Yieldmo.
- Privacy-first audience planning
- All data in our marketplace meets strict privacy and compliance standards, helping brands scale campaigns confidently.
- Custom and pre-built audience options
- Mix and match from 2,400+ Experian Audiences and Partner Audiences to find the right shoppers and meet your campaign goals.
Our data marketplace delivers the people you want to reach, where you need to reach them, with the insights to optimize in real time.
Personalize promotions
One-size-fits-all promotions won’t cut it in 2025. Consumers expect relevance at every touchpoint and ignore what feels generic or off-base. With the abundance of Black Friday offers, shoppers are filtering fast and prioritizing brands that understand their needs, preferences, and timing.
Here’s how you can deliver on these demands:
- Deliver targeted product recommendations: Whether through chatbots or personalized emails, consumers want help quickly finding what they need. Brands that invest in smart recommendation engines position themselves to drive cart additions and increase average order value (AOV).
- Customize promo codes by segment: Everyone loves discounts, but not all shoppers should get the same one. Use customer segments like high-spenders, last-minute shoppers, or deal-hunters from Experian’s syndicated holiday audiences to offer custom promo codes, boost conversions, and avoid over-discounting with those who would buy regardless.
- Optimize the timing of offers: Timing is everything during Cyber Week when inboxes and feeds are flooded. Use our behavioral and lifestyle data to determine when your segments are most active and likely to buy, and schedule your best offers for maximum impact.
- Use Experian Activity Feed: Black Friday 2025 will span devices, stores, and channels. Activity Feed connects the dots between online ad exposures and offline sales, helping you measure the impact of your campaigns and identify what drives conversions.
Case study: How Cuebiq increased match rates with Activity Feed
Using Activity Feed, Cuebiq, resolved digital ad exposures to MAIDs so they could know the impact of their campaigns on in-store visits and purchases.
Within three weeks, they resolved 85% of ad events to households across web, mobile, and CTV, giving their clients a clearer view of what drove store traffic and sales.
“In just a few weeks, they were able to maximize the match rate across the fragmented digital inventory, solving a huge problem when it comes to cross-channel attribution.”
Luca Bocchiardi,Director of Product, Cuebiq
Experian can help you win big this holiday season
Marketers are entering this season with more pressure, more complexity, and more opportunity than ever before. Whether you’re grappling with signal loss, evolving your omnichannel mix, or launching your first curated PMP, Experian has the data, identity infrastructure, and activation tools to help you win. Download our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, in collaboration with GroundTruth, to access our predictions for this year’s holiday season.
Want help building your Black Friday marketing strategy? Let’s talk.
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Targeting: Advertisers can only target broad demographics (age, gender, location) but not specific interests or behaviors. Ad format: Ad formats typically take the form of non-interactive ads, usually 15-, 30-, or 60-second spots shown during commercial breaks. Viewer engagement: Viewing is passive, as ads are shown at fixed times and cannot be skipped. OTT OTT refers to streaming services that bypass traditional cable or satellite to deliver content through the internet on platforms like Netflix, Hulu, and Peacock. Content is available on-demand and accessible on devices like laptops, tablets, smart TVs, and smartphones. OTT is flexible, so viewers can watch what they want when they want. Targeting: OTT offers precise targeting using interest, viewing behavior, and location data to personalize ads. Ad formats: Formats can include pre-roll, mid-roll, sponsored content, and sometimes interactive ads to drive engagement. 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OTT refers to the streaming services providing content, regardless of the device, while CTV refers to the internet-enabled TV screens through which OTT content is consumed. They’re complementary, with OTT defining the content and CTV shaping the viewing experience on the largest screen in the house. Each TV platform has its own strengths. Linear TV is great for reaching a broad audience with memorable ads, while OTT and CTV offer more precise targeting and greater viewer engagement. Advertisers should consider using a mix of these platforms, taking advantage of each one’s benefits to create a well-rounded advertising strategy. Benefits of linear TV in the modern advertising landscape While consumer behavior has shifted toward digital content consumption, the sheer scale and influence of pre-scheduled, real-time broadcast TV advertising makes it a powerful tool for brand advertising within a broad media strategy. When integrated with digital strategies, linear TV can widen your reach, foster brand safety, and boost viewer engagement, to name a few benefits. Mass reach and brand visibility Broadcast TV advertising has a massive reach, especially during live events and news broadcasts. It delivers content to large, diverse audiences at once — something digital platforms, with often fragmented and niche targeting, cannot achieve on the same scale. To put things in perspective, there are nearly as many linear TV viewers today (228 million) as social media users (236 million), according to eMarketer. This helps marketers earn brand visibility and recognition across broad demographics and make an impact on their target audience. Advertisers can also use linear TV to reach multiple individuals in a single household, making it an efficient way to run household-focused marketing campaigns. Linear TV advertising increases the likelihood that a diverse audience residing in one household will see your content. Brand safety and controlled environment One of linear TV's most important advantages is its controlled, brand-safe environment. Unlike digital platforms, where ads can appear alongside user-generated content or in unpredictable and sometimes risky settings, linear TV offers a more curated environment. Advertisers can be confident their message will be delivered in a professionally regulated context so viewers develop a positive, reliable brand association. Diversify your marketing mix Some demographics are underserved by digital channels and are more likely to see ads on linear TV than on an internet-connected device. Top U.S. advertisers obtain more impressions among adults over 55 using linear TV ads, with Baby Boomers spending an average of 5 hours and 46 minutes daily on linear TV. This highlights why it’s so critical to diversify your marketing mix with various channels that help you tap into audiences your competitors may not be. Preferred hosting for major events Digital platforms are hosting more live events every year, but linear TV is still the most successful and reliable medium for major events like elections, breaking news, award shows, primetime TV, and the Super Bowl. In fact, linear TV dominated the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, with major networks achieving off-the-chart ratings and more than 42 million cable viewers nationwide. Guaranteed ad exposure While many digital platforms allow viewers to skip ads, linear TV ads have stayed unskippable and ensured viewers receive full exposure to marketing content. With traditional TV ads reaching as long as 60 seconds, this guaranteed viewership is a chance you can’t miss to capture your audience's attention. Viewer engagement and ad recall Paired with CTV, linear TV is exceptionally good at engaging viewers and facilitating strong recall with high-quality content. A recent study by Brightline found that, even in 2024, linear TV maintains the highest ad attention with an attention rate of 54.5%, surpassed only by premium CTV with a 56.1% attention rate. When viewers are highly engaged with TV programming, they’re also more likely to remember the aired ads, which boosts ad effectiveness and sales potential. According to a Comcast Advertising study, long-form TV and streaming ads are also twice as memorable as short-form mobile digital ads. This study revealed that TV ads garnered more visual attention than digital mobile ads, as participants watched 71% of the TV ads compared to the 30% they watched on mobile. Ads viewed in the TV environment even resulted in 2.2x higher unaided recall and 1.3x greater purchase intent than mobile digital ads. Traditional TV advertising, combined with digital, creates a full-screen, lean-back viewing experience that makes lasting impressions and elevates consumer memory. Current trends in TV advertising While it's true that linear TV is facing a viewership decline as audiences shift to digital platforms, it’s not disappearing entirely. Advertisers are finding new ways to innovate within the confines of linear TV and using advancements in targeting, content delivery, and OTT platform integrations. Free ad-supported television services (FAST) For one, linear TV is finding a new lease on life through FAST services; FAST channels bridge the gap between traditional linear TV and contemporary streaming preferences to reshape how audiences engage with ad-supported content. The main appeal of FAST is its ability to deliver curated, genre-specific programming combined with on-demand options. Roughly 70% of streaming users know about FAST and have used it within the last three months. Unlike traditional video-on-demand (VOD) platforms focused on high-profile originals and on-demand access, FAST channels bring back the structured, live grid format that mimics classic TV viewing experiences. Services like Pluto TV, Tubi, and the Roku Channel have captured significant audience share by blending nostalgia with modern accessibility. These agile, scalable platforms help media companies quickly launch new channels, as they did with NBCUniversal’s recent addition of 48 channels on Freevee and Xumo Play. High-impact events Certain genres, like live sports and award shows, continue to dominate on linear TV, including: The Super Bowl Other major NFL games The NBA Finals The Olympics The Oscars The Grammy Awards The Emmy Awards These events attract massive audiences and are a prime spot for advertisers. However, even live sports are transitioning to OTT platforms like Netflix, Amazon, and Peacock. Platforms like Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV, and ESPN+ are starting to secure exclusive streaming rights for major sports events and changing viewership patterns, which creates fiercer competition for linear TV. On the flip side, marketers have new opportunities in OTT environments to enjoy the reach of traditional TV advertising with more precise targeting. Linear programmatic TV While linear TV faces growing competition from digital channels, it’s adapting to meet marketers’ needs through innovations like linear programmatic TV. This approach automates the buying and placement of ads on traditional TV so advertisers can apply data-driven insights for more precise targeting. Unlike traditional linear ad buys, which rely on fixed schedules and broad audience demographics, programmatic technology allows for greater efficiency, flexibility, and strategic alignment. Recent forecasts show linear programmatic TV growing steadily throughout 2025 and being a valuable transitional tool that combines linear TV’s reach with digital platforms’ personalization and measurability. Cloud TV Cloud TV modernizes the traditional TV advertising experience by combining its established infrastructure with the best features of digital streaming and OTT. Companies like Vodafone and Viacom18 are transforming linear TV into a more flexible and scalable cloud-based service that delivers linear content alongside streaming options. Users can now conveniently access live TV and on-demand content from one interface. Currently, platforms like YouTube TV and Hulu + Live TV blend linear broadcasts with OTT streaming in the cloud so that viewers can watch traditional TV channels and access on-demand shows all in one place. This means advertisers can deliver targeted, personalized messages to the right audiences without losing the large-scale reach of linear TV and engage people across live TV and digital content. Addressable TV and advanced targeting Linear TV has always been limited by broad targeting, showing the same ad to everyone, no matter who’s watching. Addressable TV changes the game, letting advertisers deliver different ads to specific households during the same program so brands can reach the right people with messages that matter to them. The key to making this work is authenticated audiences. These are viewers who log in to platforms with verified information, giving advertisers better insights into their interests, behaviors, and demographics. This level of audience data allows for smarter audience segmentation and more effective ads based on interests, demographics, and behaviors. With Experian’s addressable TV audiences and strategic partnerships, you can execute highly targeted and measurable TV campaigns. Using reliable first-party data and universal identifiers (like Unified I.D. 2.0), which link consumer profiles across devices and channels, we help brands reach the right viewers on traditional TV and CTV platforms and ensure the right person sees the right ad at the best time without overexposure. How to integrate linear TV with digital marketing strategies Integrating linear TV with digital marketing strategies starts with aligning campaigns with audience behaviors and preferences. Using data-driven insights, brands can ensure their TV efforts complement digital channels to create a unified, impactful experience. Experian simplifies this process with advanced identity resolution and audience insights. Our identity graph and syndicated audiences can help your brand: Link TV ad exposures to online engagement and create a seamless experience across platforms. Measure cross-channel performance and understand how linear TV contributes to digital outcomes. Use enriched audience data to tailor ads that resonate for relevance and consistency across TV and digital. We’re ready to help you maximize the effectiveness of your TV advertising campaigns. Ready to connect with Experian’s TV experts? Partner with a leader in data and identity to achieve the full potential of your television marketing. Our innovative tools and collaborations with top industry platforms provide exciting opportunities for you to reach and engage your ideal audience. Let us help you transform your strategies and maximize your marketing ROI with our advanced TV solutions. Talk to our TV experts Contact us Latest posts