At A Glance
Holiday shopping in 2025 doesn’t follow one clear pattern, with shoppers blending early planning and last-minute purchases, digital discovery and in-store validation, and cautious spending. Marketers who embrace this complexity, by staying relevant, consistent, and connected across channels, will be best positioned to win this season.Holiday shopping in 2025 feels a lot like a complicated relationship. Shoppers want deals, but they also want trust. They start shopping early, but they’re still browsing well into December. They love the convenience of online shopping, but they still show up in-store before making the final call.
Our 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report, created this year in collaboration with GroundTruth, explores these contradictions. Our findings show that this year’s holiday season isn’t about one big shift; it’s about managing the push and pull between what consumers say, what they do, and how marketers respond.
Here are three complicated truths you need to know.
Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report
Optimize your 2025 holiday shopping campaigns with our latest report with GroundTruth.
Download now1. The new rules of holiday timing
Almost half (45%) of consumers plan to start shopping before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December. And post-holiday shopping (think gift card redemptions and deal-hunting) remains a real factor.
Why it’s complicated
The holiday calendar isn’t what it used to be. There’s no single “big moment” anymore. Instead, shoppers are spreading purchases across months, peaking around the “Turkey 12” (the 12 days surrounding Thanksgiving) and again in the final December rush.
What to do about it
- Stretch your campaigns across the full season, not just Cyber Week.
- Refresh offers to stay relevant as shopper motivations change from deal-seeking to last-minute urgency.
- Watch for post-holiday momentum and extend your promotions into January.
How belVita nailed the timing
In celebration of National Coffee Day, belVita partnered with GroundTruth on a one-month campaign to boost product awareness and drive foot traffic to Target stores. By utilizing digital out-of-home (DOOH) and mobile ads powered by location, behavioral, and purchase-based targeting, the campaign achieved a 3.44% visitation rate, nearly $476k in products added to carts, and a low cost-per-visit of just $0.22.
2. Online leads, but in-store still seals the deal
Nearly 40% of shoppers say they’ll split their purchases between online and in-store and 80% of consumers still prefer the in-store experience. Only a small fraction plan to shop exclusively in one channel. That means while digital often starts the journey, the final decision often happens in a physical store.
Why it’s complicated
Shoppers love the convenience of browsing online, but they still want the reassurance of seeing, touching, or testing products before buying. In-store isn’t just about the transaction, it’s the validation step.
What to do about it
- Build omnichannel strategies that connect digital discovery with in-store follow-through.
- Use location and identity data to tie digital impressions to real-world actions, like foot traffic and purchases.
- Focus on consistency: shoppers expect the same value, tone, and trust whether they’re on a website, in an app, or standing in a store aisle.
How Duke Cannon used on-premise targeting to drive sales lift
Duke Cannon, a premium men’s grooming brand, partnered with GroundTruth to launch a successful multichannel campaign utilizing location-based and behavioral audience targeting across CTV and mobile screens to drive in-store visits and sales.
By targeting consumers with mobile ads while they were physically in-store, the company capitalized on high purchase intent, aiding in the 12% sales lift. This strategic approach resulted in over 43.9k provable in-store visits and a significant increase in sales.
3. Marketers double down, consumers hold back
This holiday season, expectations are split. 66% of marketers expect holiday spend to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. While brands are leaning into bigger investments across CTV, retail media, and social, shoppers are staying cautious, weighing value and waiting for the right deal.
Why it’s complicated
That disconnect introduces risk. If marketers don’t align spend with real consumer behavior, budgets can get wasted in the rush to cover every channel. Shoppers haven’t stopped spending, but they’re spending differently. They’re trading down to discount and big-box retailers while cutting back in discretionary categories like apparel and restaurants.
What to do about it
- Prioritize efficiency by focusing on the right audiences, not just more impressions.
- Make consistency your advantage: reach people once and connect across platforms instead of chasing fragmented signals.
- Balance aggressive media investment with messaging that acknowledges consumer caution — shoppers want value and trust, not hype.
Measuring TV and streaming impact with iSpot
iSpot’s Audience Builder, powered by Experian’s Marketing Attributes, helps brands reach high-value audiences. During the holiday season, a luxury retailer could target $100K+ households with affluent lifestyle interests. With iSpot’s Unified Measurement platform, they can track performance across linear TV and streaming and shift spend in real time to maximize results.
The bottom line on 2025 holiday shopping trends
This year’s holiday shopping season is, well…complicated. Shoppers are cautious but still engaged. They’re early planners and last-minute browsers. They want the ease of digital, but the confidence of in-person.
For marketers, the opportunity lies in embracing that complexity, not trying to simplify it away. The brands that balance relevance, trust, and convenience across the full season and across every channel will be the ones that win.
Download our full 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season and see how you can turn complexity into opportunity.
FAQs
Because consumer behavior is full of contradictions. People will shop earlier but also later, browse online but purchase in-store, and want deals while demanding trust. Marketers need to navigate these push-and-pull dynamics.
Nearly half (45%) say they’ll start before November, but 62% admit they’ll still be buying in December, with momentum even continuing into January through gift card redemptions and deal-hunting.
Although many consumers begin online, the majority still make their final decisions in-store. In-person shopping acts as a validation step where customers can see, touch, or try products before buying.
Instead of focusing only on Black Friday or Cyber Week, marketers should stretch campaigns across the full season, refresh offers frequently, and continue promotions into January.
Not entirely. 66% of marketers expect spending to rise, but only 22% of consumers agree. Shoppers are cautious, prioritizing value and often trading down to discount or big-box retailers.
An omnichannel approach using identity and location data can bridge digital impressions with real-world actions like store visits and purchases, ensuring consistency across touchpoints.
Brands like belVita and Duke Cannon successfully tied digital campaigns to in-store results by utilizing precise audience targeting, location data, and well-timed promotions.
You can download Experian’s 2025 Holiday spending trends and insights report to explore all five shifts shaping this season.
Latest posts
Welcome! Who doesn’t like a warm welcome? Whether your customer is walking into your store or just signed up on your website to receive communications from you, she expects a warm reception. It’s important to make that first impression count. A welcome series helps the conversation open up between the customer and your brand. It sets expectations on the types and cadence of content the customer will receive. Welcome emails also garner 86 percent higher open rates than regular promotional mailings – not too shabby! In a recent webinar, Saks Fifth Avenue shared that they are constantly testing new and current programs to optimize the customer experience. As a result, they discovered that switching from batch-sending welcome emails to sending welcome messages in real time increased open, click and redemption rates significantly. Here’s an example of their welcome series: Saks’ results are consistent with Experian Marketing Services’ welcome email findings which indicate that emails triggered in real time receive up to 10 times the transaction rates and revenue per email vs. those that are batched. A welcome series has also been shown to increase retention by educating customers on new ways to use products and services they’ve purchased from your brand. These emails also can remind customers of the benefits they’ll reap from enrolling in your loyalty programs or credit card. … and welcome back Even if a customer has been welcomed and has interacted with your programs, a day may come when the customer goes silent. Reactivation campaigns are an effective way to get them to re-engage. Naturally, it’s important to target your dormant customers in a variety of channels so you can reach them more effectively. Maybe you’re wondering why I jumped from the warmth of a welcome series right into reality of needing a reactivation campaign. The reason? Marketers need to understand where a customer is in their lifecycle and come full circle with customers if they have parted ways. Marketers can pique the interest of a returning customer by telling them what’s new and reintroducing them to their brand. Carnival® Cruise Lines, for example, sends a welcome-back email that features the newest social networks, offers and deals its customers can take advantage of immediately. At the end of the day, customers expect to receive relevant and engaging messages throughout their entire relationship with a brand. Customer life cycle programs deliver just that. If you’re interested in learning more about welcome campaigns, waitlist/back-in-stock programs and other remarketing strategies, check out our webcast, Driving revenue through customer lifecycle marketing featuring Josh Pratt, Director of Email & Promotions for Saks Fifth Avenue and Saks Fifth Avenue OFF 5TH. Contact us today
It seems that every time I go into a store today, I am offered a loyalty card. From one of my favorite local restaurants to my shoe store VIP program, I feel like I am getting a host of emails and points at every turn. Statistics support my theory: according to a recent Experian Data Quality study, 91 percent of organizations use loyalty programs. Why did they become so prevalent? Today’s consumer is more empowered than ever before and driving major change within business. In the era of Yelp, digital channels and a 24/7 shopping cycle, organizations have less control. Just look at the shoe market, which you can tell I pay attention to. It used to be that you would purchase whatever your local department store or brick-and-mortar retail had to offer, which might be 50 different options. Now, you can go online, read reviews and browse hundreds of different choices based on style and color. In fact, last night I went online and searched for black boots and scrolled through six pages of different options! Loyalty programs are a counter balance to that choice and empowered customer behavior. They make sure that while I am shopping for shoes, I am probably doing it through my preferred store and earning reward points for free merchandise. And through the loyalty process, companies are collecting a lot of data. Customers usually need to provide more than three types of information to sign up, the most popular being email, followed by name and phone number. However, collecting this information accurately isn’t always easy, which is why poor data collection is one of the leading problems for loyalty programs. Eighty-one percent of companies face challenges related to these programs, the two biggest being not enough customers signing up and poor contact data. Inaccurate data means that a customer has signed up, but the marketer is unable to communicate with them in the desired channels. This clear drop in communication and a potentially bad customer experience could be by improved data collection. Sixty-four percent of respondents say this is a needed improvement. Let’s go back to my shoe retailer example. If they had collected my email wrong, I wouldn’t get my email confirmations or offers around upcoming sales. If they got my address wrong, I wouldn’t be receiving my shoes. Considering how much money I spend on shoes annually, which I am ashamed to admit, if any of those items went wrong, I might switch to a competitor. That can equate to a lot of money annually, especially when you look at it across a large number of clients. When a customer chooses to sign up for a loyalty program, they are making a commitment to the company and expecting something in return, be it points, free shipping, coupons or just company updates. However, if bad contact information is collected, then the consumer often never receives the benefits, resulting in a bad customer experience. In the next year, marketers need to data validation in place to ensure information is accurate upon collection. This type of software can be implemented across all channels where information is collected and ensure data is accurate while the consumer is still engaged. If information is accurate when it is collected, then loyalty programs have a better chance at engaging consumers and actually seeing the benefit that a loyalty program can provide. To learn more about loyalty programs and the research mentioned above, please read our new white paper, Driving customer loyalty. Contact us today
Black Friday online traffic increased 7% in 2012 versus 2011 as the top 500 retail sites received more than 193.8 million total US visits. So far this Holiday week of online traffic to the top retail sites is up 10% on average. Online retail traffic was up 1% on Black Friday compared to Thanksgiving Day 2012 traffic this year. Amazon.com remained the top visited retail site on Black Friday while Walmart was the second most visited retail site. BestBuy moved up to the 3rd most visited site while Target was the 4th most visited site. JC Penney moved up from being the 8th most visited retail site on Thanksgiving Day to the 5th most visited on Black Friday. Among the top 5 sites, JC Penney saw the biggest day-over-day growth at 26%. Looking at the top 20 retail sites on Black Friday, the Apple Store site saw the biggest day-over-day growth at 99%. Check back for CyberMonday insight and a weekly recap of this week. Contact us today