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Fiscal cliff uncertainty could further deteriorate U.S. business confidence

Q3 Report Findings

According to the latest Experian/Moody’s Analytics Small Business Credit Index, the credit quality measured by the Small Business Credit Index began deteriorating in Q3 after four consecutive quarters of improvement. Findings from the report showed that while 30 and 60 day past due balances have improved, those that are considered severely delinquent (more than 90 days past due) have not improved after climbing 11.4 percent during the first three quarters of last year.

The index is likely to remain under pressure over the next several quarters as uncertainty over the fiscal cliff intensifies and Congress deliberates raising the Treasury debt ceiling. Business confidence, which already is pinned at low levels, could deteriorate further as policymakers grapple with these issues. This will dampen hiring and could mean layoffs if firms panic. Access the full report by filling out the form on the right.

About the Report

The Experian/Moody’s Analytics Small Business Credit Index tracks how businesses are faring over a period of time compared with a base point, with the first quarter of 2011 being equal to 100. The key factors that comprise the index are commercial credit data (including growth of credit balances and delinquency rates measured on a dollar basis) combined with a variety of macroeconomic data (including growth rates for employment, income, retail sales, investment, output and industrial production).

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