An analysis of the top 25 search terms containing “Superbowl” or “Super bowl” in the week ending January 28, 2012 reveals five variations around the date and time of the game, four variations of party planning and recipes (in fact, “Super bowl party games” was the top paid term on the list), along with two searches on “tickets”. Celebrity multi-million dollar bets also made the list of top 15 search terms for the game, specifically “Lil Wayne 5 million Super Bowl bet” and “Birdman Superbowl bet”. These searches refer to a tweet by hip-hop artist Birdman (whose rap mentor is Lil Wayne) wherein he announced his intentions to bet $5 million dollars on a New England Patriots win.

Among the search terms with the highest year-over-year growth for the week before the Super Bowl, two variations included adding 2012 for the most recent information. Searches around super bowl food ideas, squares (for the office & party Super Bowl pools) and ads also increased significantly from the same week last year.

Online consumers are also searching for championship jerseys for both teams and quarterbacks. Search term variations for “Patriots jersey” increased more than 5 times week over week while corresponding search variations for “Giants Jersey” were up only 260% during the same time period. In a showdown between quarterbacks, search variations for “Tom Brady jersey” increased 33% as compared with the previous week while the variations on “Eli Manning jersey” were flat.

Thanks to Lauren Rice, Analyst with the Strategic Services team for today’s analysis.

The relevance and general merit of airing a Super Bowl spot is widely debated by marketing executives.  Each advertiser calculates their own set of metrics and rules for justifying the cost of running a Super Bowl commercial.  So let’s ask a simple question.  Based on the composition and size of the overall Super Bowl viewing audience, does it make sense for a brand like Volkswagen to spend $3.5 million on a 30-second spot?

Of course there are multiple ways to go about answering this question.  One approach is to determine the percentage of potential Volkswagen buyers who are likely to watch the Super Bowl.  In other words, to what degree does the Super Bowl audience reach a likely Volkswagen buyer?  Put into direct marketing terms, how much lift in likelihood to purchase a Volkswagen is delivered when “targeting” Super Bowl viewers?  The term “targeting” is used loosely given that the Super Bowl is watched by over 100 million people.  Experian Marketing Services has developed a methodology for deriving such an estimate using data from Experian Simmons.  It’s called the Super Bowl Ad Relevancy (SBAR) score.

Based on a combination of brand purchasing behaviors, universe of brand users, and Super Bowl viewership statistics, Volkswagen has a SBAR score of 129.  That means there is a hypothetical 29% lift in purchase likelihood for the brand when targeting the Super Bowl audience.  When this methodology is applied to all of this year’s brand advertisers, the top three SBAR scores are for Audi, Cars.com, and Bridgestone.  At the bottom of the list are Kia, Dannon, and H&M.  Brands such as Chrysler, Honda, Pepsi, and Doritos fall in the middle.

It’s interesting to note that all of the brands, with the exception of Kia, are expected to see positive lift from targeting Super Bowl viewers.  In Kia’s case, the SBAR score indicates the brand could achieve better lift by targeting non-Super Bowl viewers.  This doesn’t sound so off base.  Kia has invested significant resources targeting NBA fans by signing Los Angeles Clippers all-star Blake Griffin to a multiyear sponsorship deal.  The brand generated significant buzz at last year’s NBA All-Star Slam Dunk Contest when Griffin’s winning dunk had him soaring over the hood of a shiny new Kia Optima.  The scene was later turned into a KIA commercial.

In theory, brands with high SBAR scores will get the most bang out of their Super Bowl advertising bucks.  However, just as in direct marketing, the content and delivery style of the message play a very important role in determining the ad’s overall effectiveness.

Based on the high price tag for a 30-second commercial, one could argue that Audi is “wasting” money by advertising during the Super Bowl because the market size of potential Audi buyers is relatively small compared to other brands like Coke and Pepsi.  By rescaling the SBAR score to take into consideration the number of likely buyers, the picture changes.  Now we’re looking at the cost of the ad per thousand likely buyers reached.  Assuming that each advertiser runs a single 30-second spot, the top three brands (lowest cost per likely buyer) are Coke, Doritos, and M&M’s.  The bottom three brands (highest cost per likely buyer) are Teleflora.com, Audi, and Kia.  But considering the low price point for a six-pack of Coke and a bag of Doritos or M&M’s versus the starting price for an Audi or Kia, the economics and overall ROI from the ad could result in any of these brands coming out as a winner.

Just as the SBAR could be used to quantify the potential effectiveness of airing a Super Bowl ad, the Quarterback Rating (QBR) is used to judge the performance of an NFL quarterback.  Unfortunately, it’s not always true that the brand with the highest SBAR wins.  There are multiple factors to consider when judging the performance of a Super Bowl commercial.  But in this year’s Super Bowl, it’s highly likely that the quarterback with the highest QBR will lead his team to victory.

The analysis is based on Experian’s ConsumerView database of lifestyle and demographic data as well as media, purchase, and online behaviors tracked by Experian Simmons. Index values are provided in parentheses. An index of 150 indicates a 50% greater likelihood for a particular characteristic to be descriptive of a given market compared to the total U.S.
Here are some key munching points:

• New Englanders have made a way of life tromping around in the great outdoors. Heard of L.L. Bean? Carrying on in the outfitter’s tradition, Bostonians are actively engaged in Canoeing/Kayaking (134), Bicycling (130), and Backpacking/Hiking (116).
• Asphalt basketball courts dot the New York City streetscape. Isn’t Harlem the adopted hometown of the world renowned Globetrotters? Carrying on in the urban tradition, New Yorkers have a high propensity to say they are very interested in the NBA (130) and have a high likelihood to visit NBA.com (181).
• Tennis anyone? You’ll hear that line more often in and around New York where residents have an above average propensity to play tennis (129).
• Tailgating anyone? You’ll hear that line more often in Boston where Patriots fans are 1.61 times more likely than Giants fans to take part in tailgating festivities.
• Basketball and hockey fans in Boston root for the Celtics and Bruins. In New York they cheer the Knicks and Rangers. Both markets have an over-abundance of sports enthusiasts. But which market has the most fanatical sports fans? That’s a tough call. Based on likelihood to visit a combination of sports-oriented websites including ESPN, Fox Sports, and CBS Sports, and league sponsored websites including the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA, the most fanatical fans reside in New York.
• Boston-area residents are more likely to have a green thumb. About one-third of area residents say they enjoy Gardening. That’s 1.41 times the corresponding percentage for New York.
• Mark Twain is credited with saying “If you don’t like the weather in New England, just wait a few minutes.” That holds as true today as it did then. But now you can “like” the weather in New England. Boston-area residents have an above average propensity to visit weather.com (129) and accuweather.com (130).
• Donald Trump, Rockefeller Center, and the misadventures of Jerry, George, Elaine, and Kramer are all synonymous with Manhattan. Perhaps that’s why New Yorkers have a high propensity to watch Celebrity Apprentice (125), 30 Rock (134), and reruns of Seinfeld (143).
• New England families are close knit. Many who live in the area have deep roots that span multiple generations. Then it’s probably no coincidence that Bostonians have a higher propensity to watch family-themed programs including Modern Family (137), Brothers & Sisters (130), Parenthood (126), and How I Met Your Mother (123).
• Samuel Adams is known for leading a revolt. We mean the beer, not the historical statesman and Revolutionary War Patriot. A sports bar in New York is banning the beer from being served during the Super Bowl. What’s all the fuss about? The beverage is highly popular with beer connoisseurs in both Boston (204) and New York (129).
• American beer companies have historically dominated the Super Bowl advertising sweepstakes spending big bucks on their humor-laden commercials. Ironically, it’s the Canadian imports that might be getting the last laugh. In Boston, area residents have a high propensity to drink Molson Canadian (234), Molson Golden (200), Labatt Blue (154), and Moosehead (146).
• The head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick, is the brainchild behind the team’s lasting success. But there’s lots of other brain power going on in Boston. Nearly 40% of the adult population has a college degree. That’s 1.46 times the national average.
• Most will agree that driving in Boston or New York is like training for a demolition derby. What are all those distracted drivers driving? Volvo (177), Acura (172), BMW (157), Toyota (146), Subaru (144), and Mazda (138) are among the most over-represented new vehicle nameplates in Boston. Topping the list in New York are Acura (179), Infiniti (165), BMW (163), Mercedes Benz (157), and Lexus (143).
• There are some things about New York that Boston residents can’t resist. Reading the online edition of the New York Times (239) tops the list.

New England Patriots fans are getting pretty spoiled. This will be their team’s fifth Super Bowl since 2001. New York Giants fans are hoping that its déjà vu all over again. That’s because, the last time these two teams played in Super Bowl XLII, the Giants pulled off a big time upset. What’s not to like about this year’s Super Bowl? The game features two teams from cities with a long lasting rivalry. Both teams are led by high profile quarterbacks. Forbes magazine recently ranked Giants co-owners (John Mara and Steve Tisch) and Patriots owner (Bob Kraft) as the NFL’s top owners based on change in franchise value and team winning percentage over the past five years.

Comparing the Giants to the Patriots need not end with dollars and cents from the franchise income statement or wins and losses from the league’s final standings. Here we have a comparison of what makes the home markets of Giants and Patriots fans unique.

All findings are based on analysis of data from Experian Simmons. An index value of 150 indicates a 50% greater likelihood for a particular characteristic to be descriptive of a given market compared to the total.  U.S. Market comparisons are made at the DMA level.

TV Viewing	Boston	New York	Winner
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)	115	88
The Office (NBC)	139	113
20/20 (ABC)	91	112
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (ABC)	97	112

Sports Participation	Boston	New York	Winner
Canoeing/Kayaking	134	103
Backpacking/Kayaking	116	86
Golf	106	81
Tennis	112	129

Magazine Reading	Boston	New York	Winner
Travel + Leisure	109	149
Instyle	110	141
Maxim	88	112
Family Circle	111	90

Websites Visited	Boston	New York	Winner
NBA	110	181
Facebook	114	102
FOX Sports	97	109
NHL	138	150

Domestic and Imported Beers	Boston	New York	Winner
Samuel Adams	204	129
Pabst Blue Ribbon	121	53
Dos Equis	112	67
Heineken	116	143

Online Behaviors	Boston	New York	Winner
Shopping (Made a Purchase)	133	115
Employment Search	105	122
Blogs/Blogging	129	113
Banking	121	107

Recently Acquired Vehicle	Boston	New York	Winner
Subaru	140	64
Volvo	177	135
Buick	130	90
Mercedes Benz	118	157

Type of Vehicle Owned	Boston	New York	Winner
Full Size Van	140	64
Luxury Sports Car	103	169
Light Duty Full Size Pickup	113	48
Midsize SUV	105	77

It’s a matchup of contrasting styles – Tom Brady and the machine-like offense of the New England Patriots versus Ray Lewis and the virtually impenetrable defense of the Baltimore Ravens. These teams have been built and equipped to compete with vastly different strengths and skill sets. Their respective home markets also have some diametrically opposite characteristics. Do you prefer New England lobster or Maryland crab? Let’s take a peek at differences between Boston and Baltimore.

All findings are based on analysis of data from Experian Simmons. Index values are cited in parentheses. An index of 150 indicates a 50% greater likelihood for a particular characteristic to be descriptive of a given market compared to the total U.S. Market comparisons are made at the DMA level.

What makes Boston unique?

• The Volvo in the driveway is far more commonplace in Boston (177) than in Baltimore (90).
• What are you doing this weekend? Boston-area residents are more likely than their Baltimore counterparts to be hanging out in a vacation home that they own (161).
• Don’t have time to spend the weekend outside the city? Bostonians also love to visit a museum (140).
• Cheers was an Emmy-award winning situation comedy set in a Boston bar. Looking for a good alcoholic beverage or microbrew? In Boston, they prefer Mike’s Hard Lemonade (133) and Pete’s Wicked Ale (168).
• Hockey is big in Beantown. Just wait for the annual Beanpot tournament to come around. Want more proof? Residents of Boston have an above average propensity to go ice skating (124) or play hockey (129) and are very interested in college hockey (144) and the NHL (171).
• The head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick, is the brainchild behind the team’s lasting success. But there’s lots of other brain power going on in Boston. Nearly 40% of the adult population has a college degree. That’s 1.46 times the national average.

What makes Baltimore unique?

• The Ravens’ attacking and physical style defense evokes visions of a military unit preparing for battle. Coincidentally, Baltimore has a high incidence of adults who have served in the armed forces (121).
• With its proximity to our nation’s capital, politics are an important part of the Baltimore scene. Baltimore-area residents keep tabs by watching “Washington Week” on PBS (161).
• Politics isn’t for everyone. Sometimes it’s more fun to bounce a basketball than toss a political football. In Baltimore, they’re more likely to follow and be interested in the NBA (145) and WNBA (136).
• Tom Brady is married to a supermodel. But the people of Baltimore can still take heart. They’re more likely to watch “America’s Next Top Model” (142) on TV.
• Looking to find or impress a significant other? Apparently they are in Baltimore where there’s an above average propensity for adults to visit match.com (152), eharmony.com (145), and 1800flowers.com (149).
• Much like other coaches in the NFL, Raven’s head coach John Harbaugh watches a lot of game film to prepare his team for the next opponent. Baltimore-area couples also appreciate seeing a good movie. How do we know? They have an above average likelihood to visit fandango.com (153) and movietickets.com (141).

Stay tuned to our blog for continued coverage of consumer insights around the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl XLVI.

There are a few things I have yet to accurately predict with Internet data, namely political races and sporting events. Politics is tricky given the existence of confounding variables in visits to political sites. Sporting events, as skill based competition, have little relationship to search volume or Internet visits. That being said, there’s no reason why we can’t have a little fun with the data.

On our Experian Marketing Forward Blog we have some great posts comparing the two geographic markets of Green Bay and Pittsburgh (here and here). With Experian Hitwise, using the official team sites for the Packers and Steelers (assuming visitors to each site is a good proxy for a team fan) we can analyze the difference between the two.

At Experian Hitwise, we have the ability to report, in aggregate on the VantageScore bins for visitors to sites and categories (VantageScore is a grade-based credit scoring system, A = best credit, F= worst credit).

Here’s the comparison of visitors to the Steelers’ and Packers’ websites over the last four weeks:

While the latest Vegas odds are still showing Green Bay favored by three. The spread in VantageScore for visitors to the two sites shows a much stronger gap. While this might not help predict Sunday’s winner, I’m guessing that Packer fans have been able to finance better last-minute LCD TV purchases for the game.

I love this time of year. Anticipation builds around the match-up, Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh, Danica Patrick plus Jillian Michaels on the eagerly anticipated Go Daddy commercial, and whether the Super Bowl could cause a heart attack mid-game.

But beyond Packers vs. Steelers (I’ll leave the Patrick vs. Michaels match-up for a post game analysis) there’s another interesting match-up for my online data peeps; is social gaining on search as a navigational tool. First lets look at a chart of “Super Bowl” searches over the last three years.

First, we should note that over the last three years, U.S. searchers have realized that the Super Bowl is spelled as two words, not “superbowl.” Also by looking at this chart you might guess that, by search volume, there is less interest for online Super Bowl content. A separate analysis of visits to the official Super Bowl site however, indicate that we’re seeing a greater pregame surge in visits than in previous years. So why is traffic share on the term “Super Bowl” declining this year?

The chart above compares upstream traffic to Superbowl.com for this week versus the week before Super Bowl last year, you can see that traffic from all three search engines to the official game site have dropped, while traffic from Facebook has more than doubled.

Is this a sign that, as a navigational tool, social is gaining on search?

On a separate note, one of the reasons that I love working at Experian Marketing Services is the sheer volume of data that we have at our disposal, both online and offline. Check out these posts here and here from my esteemed colleague Bill Schneider on the depth of our market data comparing Pittsburgh to Green Bay.

To provide those insights, we conducted a detailed market analysis using a wide variety of data sources including research information from Experian Simmons, Hitwise, and the Mosaic Consumer Lifestyle segmentation solution, which defines the predominant household types for each area (as featured in yesterday’s post: Cheeseheads vs. Terrible Towels). Today, we delve further into the hearts and houses of Green Bay and Pittsburgh area residents.

GREEN BAY FANS PACK THEM IN FOR TAILGATING
Green Bay area residents are more passionate about tailgating compared to their rivals in Pittsburgh. Among those who identify themselves as NFL football fans, Green Bay fans are 1.45 times more likely than Pittsburgh fans to have participated in a tailgate party within the past 12 months. They are also better equipped to tailgate due to a higher ownership rate for midsize SUVs, and both light duty and full size pickups (Road & Track magazine top-rated picks for tailgating), compared to Pittsburgh fans.

STELLA AND STEELERS GO TOGETHER

With every tailgate comes a beverage of choice, and in today’s analysis we’ve found that Bud Light and Budweiser are the light/low calorie and regular domestic brands of beer favored the most by both Green Bay and Pittsburgh fans. However, Pittsburgh fans are 1.56 times more likely than Green Bay fans to down a few of premium brand, Stella Artois. Notably, along with its best selling brands, Anheuser-Busch plans to devote a portion of its multi-million dollar ad spend to this Belgian import.    

FANTASIZING ABOUT FOOTBALL

While all that tailgating is going on, Green Bay fans might also be boasting about their latest fantasy sports selections. They are 1.34 times more likely to say that they participate in a fantasy sports league compared to Pittsburgh fans. That’s not to say that Pittsburgh fans don’t enjoy their fantasy sports, indexing above the national average for visiting fantasy sports and football websites.

PLAYING IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS

Packers and Steelers fans enjoy being out in the elements, so chances are you’ll probably never see a dome over either Lambeau or Heinz Field. The most popular Green Bay football fan activities, with a higher participation rate compared to Pittsburgh fans, are: golfing, camping, state fairs, hunting, power boating and motorcycling. In the Pittsburgh area, with its impressive network of recreational trails, residents are 1.23 times more likely to in-line/roller skate and are 1.36 times more likely to play hockey, compared to Green Bay. Off land analysis shows that despite Green Bay residents’ close proximity to Lake Michigan and a multitude of water sport opportunities, Pittsburgh fans are more likely to spend time on the water, namely: canoeing, kayaking, sailing, and fly fishing.

THROWING DEEP VERSUS HANDING OFF

Each year Super Bowl advertisers try to reach their audiences across broadly defined demographics with little ability to measure the direct impact of their super-sized investments. It’s the equivalent of throwing a “Hail Mary” and hoping the receiver will leap above the clutter of defenders and catch the ball. Direct marketers, however, are using the behavioral and attitudinal data we’ve shared here to deliver their messages to a precisely targeted sub-audience. For marketers who want to be relevant and target accurately, this capability is the playmaker that scores a game winning touchdown every time.  

Click here for the full article

Blog post author: Bill Schneider, VP, Experian Marketing Services.

We’d love to hear your stories and how you’ve used lifestyle data. Please leave your comments or feedback below.

An enlightening glimpse into the lifestyles of Packers and Steelers’ supporters living in Green Bay and Pittsburgh, and surrounding communities, creates exciting targeting opportunities for marketers. Using Mosaic segments from Experian to dissect these two markets, marketers can identify the “Small-town Contentment” of Green Bay – these are middle-aged, upper-middle-class families living in small towns and surrounding satellite cities, versus the “Blue-collar Backbone” of Pittsburgh – these are budget-conscious, young and old blue-collar households living in older towns.

MEET THE PREDOMINATE HOUSEHOLD TYPES IN PACKERS AND STEELERS COUNTRY

In Green Bay you will find over twice the concentration of households from the Small-town Success and Family Convenience segments compared to Pittsburgh. Successful Suburbia (these are upscale, middle-age, married couples with children), the fifth most populated segment in Green Bay, is also the most over-represented segment with five times the concentration of households compared to the national average.

In Pittsburgh you will find a larger share of neighborhoods consisting of households from the Urban Commuter Families and Steadfast Conservative segments compared to Green Bay. Lower-income Essentials (these are lower income, empty-nesting couples and aging seniors) is the third most populated segment in Pittsburgh. With over eight times the concentration of households compared to the national average, this is also the most over-represented segment in Pittsburgh.

SUPER-SIZED MARKETING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE

Not all marketers can afford to spend millions of dollars placing Super Bowl ads to reach massive audiences. A more efficient approach is to target various market segments with relevant messages, using the power of segmentation solutions. A retailer developing a marketing campaign for its new line of children’s apparel should target growing families in the Small-town Success and Family Convenience segments, rather than including populations with older couples and seniors in households that are much less likely to contain children. Time and time again precision targeting based on consumer lifestyles delivers greater return on marketing spend.

While an examination of the differences in the predominate lifestyles and demographics of Green Bay and Pittsburgh may not lead us to a prediction concerning the outcome of the big game, we know one thing for certain - We’ll see lots of Cheeseheads wearing Packer gear trying to out-cheer their Terrible Towel twirling counter parts on Sunday.

What marketing are you doing in honor of Super Bowl Sunday? Does the research and segment information shared here surprise you?  Share your comments below.

Click here for the full article

Blog post author: Bill Schneider, Vice President, Experian Marketing Services at bill.schneider@experian.com

NOTES:

Pittsburgh is the 29^th largest media market (based on DMA).  The Pittsburgh, PA CBSA includes the seven counties of Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland.

Green Bay is the 72^nd largest media market.  The Green Bay, WI CBSA includes the three counties of Brown, Kewaunee and Oconto.

One factor that might have contributed to last year’s increase was the mass appeal of Budweiser’s Super Bowl commercials. According to http://superbowlads.fanhouse.com, the top two 2009 Super Bowl commercials were Bud Light: Fetch and Bud Light: Office Meeting. At number one, Bud Light: Fetch featured the now famous Clydesdale horses. This year, Budweiser has asked fans to vote whether the Clydesdale horses should be part of the Budweiser 2010 Super Bowl campaign and The Facebook fan vote chose a Clydesdale spot over two other Budweiser ads.

All things being equal, we can expect Budweiser consumption among Super Bowl fans to increase again during this year’s season.