Around this time of the year, I am inclined to use Hitwise Search Term data to predict outcomes on reality television shows like American Idol. Given the disparity between searches on contestant’s names and show results as demonstrated in this post on why Stacy Keibler didn’t win “Dancing with the Stars,” I’ve decided to take a brief pause and pose the question, does a search = vote in reality TV world.
As the Stacy Keibler post demonstrates, while Stacy’s search volume dwarfed searches for contestants Jerry Rice and Drew Lachey, she placed third in audience votes. On further examination we find, using Hitwise Search Term Analysis, and Search Term Suggestion, that most queries for Stacy were focused on finding images of the star.
Fast forward to the current season of American Idol. Here’s the latest search term chart on the top contestants:

Now, one might be inclined to think that Kellie Pickler is the most popular contestant as of last week, and you may be right. News broke last week that Miss Pickler, perhaps due to her faux – unsophisticated culinary experience, prompted the site Vote for the Worst to urge readers to pick Pickler. But does Vote for the Worst really have the muscle to sway the vote? Check out the following graph:

Based purely on market share of visits, I’d have to say no. What I do think is happening here, is what I’ll refer hereafter to as the “Keibler Effect.” By using Hitwise search term suggestion, we can’t start to dissect user intent. Consider the most common search terms for Kellie Pickler and Taylor Hicks:
Kellie Pickler Top Search Terms:

Taylor Hicks Top Search Terms:

Its clear that “Kellie” searches are focused less on talent then on images and her prom dress (if you haven’t seen the picture yet, here’s a link, think high school prom meets “I dream of Jeannie”), while “Taylor” searches arguably are more focused on the artist and his music. The moral of the story: volume of searches don’t tell the complete story, sometimes you have to dig a little to understand user intent.