On Monday the Bank of England (BoE) released its latest Quarterly Bulletin which included an article Using search data as economic indicators. The central bank is using search data to benchmark key areas like housing, unemployment, tax and benefits.

Here at Experian Hitwise we have long been champions of the power of search as a “window into the soul” of the UK population. More than ever before, if someone wants to find the answer to a question, they will invariably ask Google, Yahoo! or Bing to provide them with the answer. Analysing that search data then becomes incredibly powerful, as it allows us to say with confidence what people are interested in, what their hopes and concerns are, and what is happening in their lives.
Property is a great example of how online search behaviour is a reflection of the intent and interests of the UK population. According to an article in The Guardian, April 2011 saw house prices fall at their fastest annual rate for over 18 months as Halifax revealed that the average UK house price dropped to £160,365. Lower house prices meant that opportunistic buyers were searching for properties for sale, but not necessarily properties for rent.

What we saw in the search data over April was a 23% decline in searches for all terms relating to properties to rent, whilst searches online for properties to buy increased marginally by 1%. Interestingly all search term variations connected with house prices increased by 69%.
Regular readers of the blog will know that we often correlate our data with other data sources to show how online behaviour is reflected in real world trends. Last month we looked at how high street Footfall data can complement online retail traffic during the Bank Holidays. In previous blogs we have shown how Met Office weather data correlates with searches for lots of items from garden furniture to snow chains. In the finance industry we’ve shown how changes in the exchange rate between the pound and foreign currency are reflected online with increases in currency searches, or how the declining value of the pound against the euro corresponds with fewer searches online for Eurozone travel destinations. We’ve even managed to predict X-Factor winners with our knowledge of the search landscape.

There is no doubt that search data provides fascinating (and importantly – actionable) insight into virtually any industry. Whilst it is not quite clear from the wording of the white paper used by the BoE, on face value it appears that its search analysis relies on trending single terms like ‘estate agent’ instead of looking at the wider trends of all terms relating to estate agents and the property market as a whole.
Using portfolios of terms rather than individual terms gives a much more accurate picture of online behaviour. By drilling down into the precise search terms, it is then possible to derive consumer intent. For example, a search for ‘rightmove houses to buy in camden’ reveals much more about the intentions of this consumer than the search term ‘rightmove’. Here at Hitwise we see over 50 million unique search term variations every week, so we can derive an extraordinary amount of insight from those searches.
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