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Video: 2016 Predictions – Mauricio Paez

March 31, 2016 by Michael Bruemmer

Mauricio Paez, a partner with the international law firm Jones Day, recently joined me to share predictions about eight emerging and evolving trends in global cyberwarfare. Here are his insights:


1. Privacy and data breach litigation will continue to grow and evolve.

In addition to more lawsuits related to privacy and data breaches, courts are increasingly willing to recognize identity theft as creating the threat of a foreseeable imminent injury, Paez notes. What’s more, he adds, “a growing number of states are looking at ways of providing statutory remedies in terms of damages, whether it’s civil penalties or monetary damages.”

2. Increased cooperation among nations in cybersecurity responses.

State-sponsored cyberattacks have long been a concern in the cybersecurity community, with many believing nations such as China have been the source of some significant attacks. China has consistently denied involvement, but tension over cybersecurity has persisted between the U.S. and China. Late last year, both nations reached an accord on cybersecurity, including establishing guidelines for fighting cybercrime, agreeing to a hotline between the two nations when a cybersecurity-related issue needs to be escalated, agreeing to greater cooperation and setting another meeting date in June 2016 to discuss further cooperation.

3. Continued discussions on international data transfers between the European Union and the U.S.

In October 2015, the European Union Court of Justice declared invalid the safe harbor agreement that allowed the free-flowing transfer of digital information between the EU and the U.S. In its decision, the court raised concerns that the U.S. government could have too much access to the personal information of EU citizens, the New York Times reported. In February, the European Commission announced the EU and U.S. had reached a new agreement aimed at better protecting privacy and personal data. However, Paez predicts, “We’ll continue to see discussion around what’s the appropriate framework for international data transfers.”

4. Hackers-for-hire will continue to monetize their trade.

Differing from state-sponsored cyberattacks, hackers-for-hire come and go, plying their hacking skills for pay and then moving on to the next customer. They’re the digital-age equivalent of a hit man, and as cybersecurity cooperation between nations increases, demand for hackers-for-hire will rise.

5. State-sponsored attacks will continue.

Although China and the U.S. are at least talking about greater cooperation regarding cybersecurity, that doesn’t mean state-sponsored attacks will end anytime soon, Paez believes. “Countries are going to need to figure out a way to stem that continuing tide,” he says.

6. Malware will continue to evolve.

Malicious software attacks will continue, and it will become increasingly important for organizations and nations to have a better understanding of the malicious technology currently available in the marketplace, Paez says. “Malware is monetized, and it will continue to evolve and spread.”

7. Following the financial industry’s lead, companies will employ a more offensive approach to cybersecurity.

The cybersecurity private investigator will be in great demand, Paez predicts. “Companies are going to be hiring folks to go into the deep web, to go into the dark alleys, and try to proactively identify, characterize and strategize over the coming threat before it materializes. The best defense will be a good offense.”