Real estate is showing signs of improvement, with Q2 2012 mortgage originations increasing to $436 billion. This represents a 7 percent increase over the previous quarter and an impressive 63 percent increase over the same quarter a year ago. Refinancing activity continues to play a major role in the number of new originations.

Listen to our Webinar: Unique insights on consumer credit trends and the current state of the U.S. real estate market

Source: Experian–Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports

The November release of the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed that most loan types saw an increase in default rates in October. After nine consecutive months of declining default rates, the national composite1 increased to 1.55 percent in October from the 1.46 percent September rate. The first mortgage default rate increased from 1.36 percent in September to 1.47 percent in October. Bankcard default rates posted the lowest post recession rate in October (3.68 percent), compared with 3.70 percent in September.

Join our credit trends Webinar on Dec. 13 to learn more about consumer credit trends in the current lending environment.

Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices press release.

*The national composite is the overall consumer default rate across all products.

Six states are the top producers of turkeys: Minnesota at 46 million, North Carolina at 36 million, Arkansas at 29 million, Missouri at 17.5 million, Virginia at 17 million and Indiana at 16.5 million. This accounts for nearly two-thirds of turkeys produced in the United States as of September 2012.

The average wholesale price for frozen whole turkey during fourth-quarter 2012 is projected to range from $1.10 to $1.14 per pound — similar to the 2011 fourth-quarter average price of $1.11 per pound. The average retail price for whole frozen turkeys in September 2012 was $1.62, about 6 cents lower than the average retail price for whole frozen turkeys in September 2011. Find out more on current coverage of the poultry production and value report from the USDA.

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Mortgage delinquencies continued to reach multi-year lows with the delinquency rate for those 60 plus days past due falling to 4.68 percent in Q2 2012 compared to 5.04 percent for the same quarter last year. The decline may be the result of lenders further tightening their criteria, as the average VantageScore® credit score for consumers who opened a new mortgage trade in Q1 2012 was seven points higher when compared to the same quarter in 2011 – 878 versus 871.

Sign up now for a detailed overview of consumer credit trends from the Q2 2012 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports and an in-depth look at the current state of the U.S. real estate market.

Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.

VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.

With mortgage interest rates at historic lows, the risk of attrition and its impact on ongoing revenue has become a paramount concern for credit unions. By implementing an automated trigger program as part of its member retention efforts, one credit union was able to improve retention rates and grow its portfolio – achieving a return on investment of 788 percent.

Find out how implementing a daily triggers program can help you improve retention rates and alert you when members are looking for new credit.

Source: Notification Services Case Study.

When it comes to short sales, a status of “account paid in full for less than full balance” or “settled” will still have a negative impact on a credit score because it means the debt was not paid in full as agreed. According to VantageScore Solutions LLC, a mortgage loan settled through a short sale typically results in a change of 120 to 130 points to the VantageScore credit score. A foreclosure generally causes a decline of 130 to 140 points. The impact of the short sale or foreclosure will vary since scores take into account the individual’s overall credit history.

VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.

Register now for a detailed overview of consumer credit trends from the Q2 2012 Market Intelligence Reports. Also during this event, we’ll take an in-depth look at understanding the current state of the U.S. real estate market.

Source: The Ask Experian team advice blog.

Some borrowers who are deemed subprime by traditional credit scoring criteria are actually quite creditworthy and are identified as prime or near-prime consumers when using the more inclusive VantageScore®. Based on a VantageScore Solutions’ study of infrequent users of credit, 15.5 percent were found to have either prime or super-prime risk. In addition, among new entrants to the credit scene — including students who recently graduated, immigrants and recently divorced consumers — 26.5 percent were found to have either prime or super-prime risk profiles.

Learn more about VantageScore Solutions, identified as a Preferred Partner by the National Association of Federal Credit Unions (NAFCU).

Source: VantageScore Solutions summer 2012 newsletter, The Score
VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.

The FDIC has proposed a new rule that will change the way large lenders define and calculate risk for their FDIC Deposit Insurance Assessment. The revised definitions in the proposed rule rely on “probability of default” and eliminate all references to the traditional three-digit credit score used to calculate subprime exposure — changing the way large banks calculate their FDIC assessments. This new ruling will allow lenders to uniformly assess risk in their portfolios–regardless of the scoring models they use.

View a recent webinar to hear from a panel of experts on the “The New Subprime Definition: Who is subprime now?”

Source: FDIC Proposed Ruling Announcement

The cumulative effect of Basel III is expected to have a substantial impact on capital requirements. The total minimum regulatory capital will increase from 8 percent to 10.5 percent. For institutions that are considered “systematically important,” an additional holding requirement may be imposed of up to 3.5 percent.

Download our white paper to learn more about how your peers are reacting to Basel III and how Experian can help banks to optimize risk-weighted assets.

Source: Creating value in challenging times: An innovative approach to Basel III compliance by Experian’s Global Consulting Practice

Mortgage origination volumes increased to $427 billion in Q4 2011 – a 31 percent quarterly gain. However, overall 2011 originations of $1.35 trillion were 16 percent lower than 2010 volumes.

Sign up to attend our upcoming Webinar, which will focus on current credit trends and feature a closer look at the overleveraged consumer.

Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.